CFB Week 8 Thread

[Dawg83]

Sorry for kinda skipping Week 7, but none of the three Mississippi teams played, which feels extremely rare that all of the off weeks lined up like that.

 

Actually will start with USM since they are playing in a Tuesday night game tomorrow at South Alabama. I know USM has been bad so far but I’ll watch almost any football on a Tuesday. Lol. Unfortunately Vegas sees USA as an 18 point favorite in this one and I don’t love USM’s chances either. Frankly not sure where the wins are coming from the rest of the way. They can beat UL Monroe at home in a few weeks but everything else is going to be really tough.

 

 

State at Arkansas - said it last week but the seat is going to heat up pretty quick for the losing coach in this one. Says a lot about State that Arkansas is 2-5 and still opened as a 9 point favorite. Rumors are swirling about some key injuries for State, notably at QB and RB. That uncertainty, combined with a good QB in Jefferson playing against a bad defense gives me little reason to not pick the home team. I have Arkansas winning 34-17.

 

Ole Miss at Auburn - mentioned this in another thread and got the sense that most agree with the notion that Ole Miss probably should win but this is a dangerous game. Night games at Jordan Hare can get really weird. And Auburn’s home vs away splits this year are vastly different. If the game was in Oxford I’m picking OM by 20+. But I’m going to go out on a limb and pick the Auburn upset. It seems widely agreed upon that Freeze is probably beating somebody he shouldn’t this year. I think it’s his old team. I kinda think it’s a repeat of this game two years ago and OM loses on some untimely turnovers or weird Kiffin 4th down decisions. Auburn 28 Ole Miss 23

Tennessee at Bama - are either of these teams actually any good? I think Bama probably is. I’m not sure about Tennessee. In Tuscaloosa I think Bama wins by 10 to 14.

 

South Carolina at Missouri - Look at you, 6-1 Mizzou! I think they get another one this week and enter a back to back stretch of Georgia and Tennessee with *technically* still a chance to win the East. Hey, maybe it’s 2013/2014 all over again!

 

Penn State at Ohio State - I may be way off here but I am taking Penn State. Something about the Buckeyes has looked slightly iffy at times and this is Franklin’s best team since Saquon Barkley was still on campus. 
 

Duke at Florida State - Last ranked team the Noles will see in the regular season most likely. I think they continue on their path to what I believe ends with them in the Playoff.

 

Utah at USC - the real USC has been exposed. They don’t play defense and their offense can be stymied by teams that do. Utah had their number last year and I like the Utes on the road here as well.

 

Edited October 16, 2023 by Dawg83

[maroontide06]

When was the last time Ole Miss won at Auburn?  Has it been a while?

[Dawg83]

21 minutes ago, maroontide06 said:

When was the last time Ole Miss won at Auburn?  Has it been a while?

Freeze won there in 2015 I think is the last time. State also won at Auburn that same year. Bad season for AU, I think that was the Jeremy Johnson year where he was getting a crazy amount of preseason hype and then got benched after like 3 games.

[maroontide06]

2 minutes ago, Dawg83 said:

Freeze won there in 2015 I think is the last time. State also won at Auburn that same year. Bad season for AU, I think that was the Jeremy Johnson year where he was getting a crazy amount of preseason hype and then got benched after like 3 games.

Even though it makes sense on paper, I certainly get the reservations on picking OM at Auburn.

 

What does State need to do or who does State need to play in order to have a competitive game in Fayetteville?  I'm having trouble finding a path for a State win.  Maybe it's there, but it's severely camouflaged.

[Bulldogs4]

South Alabama in a rout over USM. It hurts to type that.

 

Ole Miss wins at Auburn. Under Gus, Auburn used to have wizardry magic spells. But kind of like USM firing Bower, I think Auburn lost their JH voodoo when they fired Gus. Freeze certainly wants to beat Ole Miss but it is not going to happen this year. Ole Miss 35, Auburn 20. 
 

State@Arkansas all points to a Hawg victory. So I will go with Pig Sooie in this one. Arkansas 38, State 31. 
 

UT-Knox at UA-Tuscaloosa has a weird vibe this year. Tide should win in a very ugly game. 
Red Tide 10, Orange Vols 7. 

SCAR-Mizzou. Mizzou finds a way to choke away this game. SCAR 31, Mizzou 30. Just because…

 

 

Pennsylvania State @ The Ohio State….until Penn State proves it I will go with the Buckeyes here….Ohio 20, Penn 17.

 

Free Shoes @ Duke …. Seminoles go down 

24-17.

 

Utah @ USC. USC’s defense maybe worse than State’s. Did I really just type that? 
Utes 52, Trojan Horse 28.

[rebmus]

1 hour ago, Bulldogs4 said:

South Alabama in a rout over USM. It hurts to type that.

 

Ole Miss wins at Auburn. Under Gus, Auburn used to have wizardry magic spells. But kind of like USM firing Bower, I think Auburn lost their JH voodoo when they fired Gus. Freeze certainly wants to beat Ole Miss but it is not going to happen this year. Ole Miss 35, Auburn 20. 
 

State@Arkansas all points to a Hawg victory. So I will go with Pig Sooie in this one. Arkansas 38, State 31. 
 

UT-Knox at UA-Tuscaloosa has a weird vibe this year. Tide should win in a very ugly game. 
Red Tide 10, Orange Vols 7. 

SCAR-Mizzou. Mizzou finds a way to choke away this game. SCAR 31, Mizzou 30. Just because…

 

 

Pennsylvania State @ The Ohio State….until Penn State proves it I will go with the Buckeyes here….Ohio 20, Penn 17.

 

Free Shoes @ Duke …. Seminoles go down 

24-17.

 

Utah @ USC. USC’s defense maybe worse than State’s. Did I really just type that? 
Utes 52, Trojan Horse 28.

I agree with all except for the Ole Miss/Auburn pick. I have no idea who to pick in this one and suspect it will be a 1 possession game. 

[hasbeen67]

Auburn hasn't looked great what little I've seen. But I'm sure Freeze will have them fired up and maybe some tricks up his sleeve. 

[MSTSatchmo]

I think State plays Arkansas well, but being on the road I can’t pick them to win.  Arkansas 31 State 28

 

Will Auburn look more like the team that played Georgia or the team that played LSU. I’m guessing the LSU version. 
OM 38 Auburn 21

 

Alabama over Tennessee in an ugly revenge win.  
Missouri easily over SC

Penn State over Ohio State

FSU over Duke

USC over Utah

[rebmus]

Southern Miss down 21-0 already tonight, ouch. 

 

 

[rebmus]

The table next to me at lunch today had an "interesting discussion" about why Ole Miss is ranked too high/low. 

 

I've always said I don't care much about rankings early in the season and still can't tell much after 6 games. I don't "get" taking a strong stance either way. 

Currently Ole Miss is ranked ahead of LSU and Tulane (both wins) and ranked behind Alabama (loss). Seems pretty correct as of right now. 

[coastfootballfanman]

42 minutes ago, rebmus said:

Southern Miss down 21-0 already tonight, ouch. 

 

 

Will Hall may not be the HFC for USM this time tomorrow. 26 yards of offense in 1st half I think I read. 

[s1nglewing]

11 minutes ago, coastfootballfanman said:

Will Hall may not be the HFC for USM this time tomorrow. 26 yards of offense in 1st half I think I read. 

SMTTT

[MSTSatchmo]

So what has happened at USM?   It looked like Hall had been making progress each year. 

They picked up some transfers from some P5 schools and also had some positive momentum in recruiting.   It has just been a surprise to me, but I’ll admit I don’t know a lot about their roster compared to last year.  

Edited October 18, 2023 by MSTSatchmo

[rebmus]

36 minutes ago, MSTSatchmo said:

So what has happened at USM?   It looked like Hall had been making progress each year. 

They picked up some transfers from some P5 schools and also had some positive momentum in recruiting.   It has just been a surprise to me, but I’ll admit I don’t know a lot about their roster compared to last year.  

NIL. 

I've always supported players getting paid, but also said the way it was done will kill the teams like USM who don't have money to bid. 

 

 

[Bulldogs4]

USM historically stretched their limited dollars to the max but they are now in a really bad position. 
 

Before the last 15 years they had a gold mine of recruiting from SO LA to NO FL, SO AL, GA, MS with very little competition for players just below SEC level. Now you have GA Southern, Troy, UAB, USA, Lafayette, Tulane, Memphis that are grabbing up players that historically went to USM. Add in the fact that State/OM are going to get the best players in Mississippi and there will be some that will go out of state as well. 
 

Just a very difficult situation for them to be in and I don’t see any easy way out of it right now. 
Hall is a good coach but he is playing with one hand tied behind his back these days and is in an impossible situation as it stands.

 

All that to say getting beat 55-3 by USA is pretty much unfathomable especially in this day and age. The problem won’t change with a new coach so I hope they will ride this out with him and hopefully see better days in the future. 

[Dawg83]

53 minutes ago, rebmus said:

NIL. 

I've always supported players getting paid, but also said the way it was done will kill the teams like USM who don't have money to bid. 

 

 

I know USM has one of the smallest budgets in FBS, but are they really that much worse off than even the rest of the Sun Belt? Is NIL even a major consideration in those kind of conferences if most schools can’t pay much?

 

I do agree with B4 on the notion that the rise of other regional schools has totally destroyed their recruiting footprint. I think the portal is going to be the only way for them to stay competitive, and evidently Hall has not done a good enough job bringing in quality transfers.

[MSTSatchmo]

10 hours ago, Dawg83 said:

 

I do agree with B4 on the notion that the rise of other regional schools has totally destroyed their recruiting footprint. I think the portal is going to be the only way for them to stay competitive, and evidently Hall has not done a good enough job bringing in quality transfers.

Right.   Apparently just because you get some SEC transfers doesn’t mean they were actually SEC caliber players….or Sun Belt caliber either.  Lol 

 

I hate it for Hall.  I still think he’s a good coach and motivator, but losing really tests those motivating abilities. 

[coastfootballfanman]

There are deeper internal problems I believe, but at the end of the day, it is year 3 for Hall. Between recruiting high school and JUCO players, along with the transfer portal, there is zero excuse to be this bad. Player development appears to be piss poor and that is squarely on Hall and his staff. The offensive line has not improved in 3 years under 2 different OL coaches. Hall is supposed to be a quarterback guru and he bragged all off-season about the kids they brought in and how they fit his system and the quarterback play has been below average at best. Hall appears to be in over his head. Being a good "coach" does not always translate to being a good Head Coach either. I do not think most USM fans expect them to be world beaters, but to not even be competing for a shot at a Sun-Belt championship is bad. Hall just has not brought the exciting brand of football he promised when he got the job. Plain and simple. I know as a Tulane fan, I was not sad to see him go when he left us after 2020. 

[MSTSatchmo]

16 minutes ago, coastfootballfanman said:

 a good "coach" does not always translate to being a good Head Coach either. 

Exactly.  I think State is seeing that also.  It happens when a coordinator gets a HC job.  May be able to handle everything and may not.  
 

As for the QB play, they will probably have won more games the year they played 10 different QBs, including the RB, than they win this year.  

[Dawg83]

I think the regression is the concerning thing with USM. Year 1 was a mess but many Year 1’s are. Year 2 they showed a good bit of an improvement and even won a bowl game. Hard to justify such a big step back after they seemed to be moving in the right direction last year.

[Dawg83]

1 hour ago, coastfootballfanman said:

Being a good "coach" does not always translate to being a good Head Coach either. 

So I agree with this, but the thing is Hall has been a good head coach before. Granted, it was at D-2 West Alabama and West Georgia. But it’s a plenty good enough track record to make one think he could win at USM.

[maroontide06]

5 minutes ago, Dawg83 said:

So I agree with this, but the thing is Hall has been a good head coach before. Granted, it was at D-2 West Alabama and West Georgia. But it’s a plenty good enough track record to make one think he could win at USM.

FWIW, Will Hall checks in at #24 on the Coaches Hot Seat rankings.  I'd say that's a pretty hot seat.

[coastfootballfanman]

11 minutes ago, Dawg83 said:

So I agree with this, but the thing is Hall has been a good head coach before. Granted, it was at D-2 West Alabama and West Georgia. But it’s a plenty good enough track record to make one think he could win at USM.

You are not wrong in your thinking. I just feel that being a Head Coach at the Division II level vs. the Division I FBS is a totally different animal and not everyone can handle making that transition. Like I said, there are internal, administration issues with money, funding, etc. that are hurting them, but the majority of it falls on Hall at the end of the day and he has not got it done. I know a lot folks want to see him succeed because he is a home state boy, but he has had 3 years and you could argue they are worse now than any point the last 4-6 years and with their remaining schedule, it will be hard to imagine them getting more than 1 win (ULM). 

Edited October 18, 2023 by coastfootballfanman

[maroontide06]

3 minutes ago, coastfootballfanman said:

You are not wrong in your thinking. I just feel that being a Head Coach at the Division II level vs. the Division I FBS is a totally different animal and not everyone can handle making that transition. Like I said, there are internal, administration issues with money, funding, etc. that are hurting them, but the majority of it falls on Hall at the end of the day and he has not got it done. I know a lot folks want to see him succeed because he is a home state boy, but he has had 3 years and you could argue they are worse now than any point the last 4-6 years and with their remaining schedule, it will be hard to imagine them getting more than 1 win (ULM). 

ULM is the only game they are favored in and even then it's not by much.  ULM could very easily win the thing.  If that game were to be played in Monroe, I think ULM would be favored.

[maroontide06]

What are y'alls thoughts on Shane Beamer's broken foot temper tantrum?  Is he feeling the heat from the hot seat or what?