Dawg83

I don’t think State has played JSU since Jans’ first year. But yes, all games matter and State has not been immune to some egg laying against lesser teams in recent years.

In Starkville for work this week so I got to slip over to the Hump last night and watch.State vs NW State. Good showing by the Dogs. Competition not very good, but anytime you win a game 82-44 you deserve at least some credit. They play Jackson State on Monday and then the season really gets going in a week. They’ve got a stretch of about six big games in a row beginning with Xavier that will determine a lot about what this team’s season can be.

Massive week of games nationally. I’ll start with the biggest one of them all! Vandy at State.- lol. This game is going to be gross. It sounds like Swann and Fluff might actually play? Did not expect that after how they left the Texas game. This feels like a hugely important game for Lebby. State CAN win it. But I don’t believe in this team without Kamario. Prove me wrong, Dogs. But I have Vandy coming into town and winning something like 20-17. Georgia at Ole Miss - Massive game for OM. Win this one and it would take a big upset for them to not make the Playoff a second year in a row. Might still have a chance with a loss but it would be tough. I’m truly torn on this one, as I believe UGA is the better team. But when in doubt, recent history says pick Ole Miss at home. I think the Rebs get this one 31-27. Bama at LSU - I have no clue why Bama is rated as high as they are in the CFP rankings. But I don’t think it will last long. LSU has quietly stepped it up of late, and in Baton Rouge, I really like their chances here. I actually have LSU winning this one by double digits. Kentucky at Tennessee - Excited about this one, think it’s a great opportunity for UK…. But if there’s anything I’ve learned watching Kentucky over the years, it’s that Tennessee is their boogeyman. I think the Vols take this one at home. Texas at Mizzou - Mizzou is weird (lol of course they are). Texas is good but not great. I’m taking Mizzou in a home upset here. Miami at Notre Dame - No Toney for the Canes, who have been living dangerously lately. I think ND finally gets its big win here. Utah at BYU - Top 10 Holy War. Will be a fun game in the early window. I am taking BYU on the road in this one, just a hunch.

Yeah that was a weird game. State turned it over a lot early and had to play small ball because of how TN Tech was playing. Then State stopped turning it over and got hot from 3 and that was game. I like Bassong, he seems like he can maybe be a DJ Jeffries or Cam Matthews type defender that they’ve been missing for a couple of years. Johnson seems like a good addition too and King Grace had the game of his career. Hubbard is Hubbard. It feels like a stereotypical Jans team. They play a very specific style and are going to need Hubbard to win some games for them. But I do think the roster is better than what they had last year. With last year’s team, I could kinda tell right away that they didn’t have it AT ALL.

Opening night was tonight, State and OM both got wins, Hard to tell a ton against weaker competition, but with Jans and Beard, it would be surprising if both teams weren’t improved this year. How much improved? TBD.

I think tonight has softened my stance on Lebby’s future. This team has had insanely tough injury luck. I don’t know how to properly or fairly evaluate State the rest of the year with how much of a M.A.S.H. Unit they are.

State incapable of catching a break right now. Looked pretty competent with Swann, driving to cut it to a one possession game…. He gets killed on a sack, scoop and score TD, and now Swann is hurt too. Back to the Billy Puckett experience.

OM beats Auburn comfortably in a game that was a lot like what most expected it to be.

Auburn at Ole Miss - OM is a 12.5 point home favorite. Auburn has the best road win in the sport so far, but has been super underwhelming otherwise. I honestly don’t think OM has a ton of issues in this one, especially in Oxford. I don’t think Auburn can score enough to keep up. I have OM winning 37-21. State at Texas - life after Kamario (for this season at least) officially begins. A lot of rumblings AJ Swann might get the start at QB. I don’t see it making much of a difference though. Texas should win this easily, something like 38-7. The following two weeks are far more important games for State and for Lebby, IMO. Florida vs Georgia - game being played in Atlanta this season due to construction in Jacksonville. I don’t think Georgia is losing again in the regular season, and I think they win this by about 14. South Carolina at Oklahoma - Shane Beamer is a cat with 9 lives and he’s used 7 or 8 of them. I’m taking SC in this one. I think they are figuring it out at the right time and now their schedule lines up pretty nicely the rest of the way for them to get to 7 or 8 wins. I also think Oklahoma stinks. Mizzou at Arkansas - Look at Arkansas with their 3 wins! Unfortunately I don’t think any more are coming this season. USM at ULM - Eagles get their second win in a row. Maybe the tide is starting to turn for them just a little bit.

State is in a better NIL and overall program situation than it was in 2023. Lebby gets some credit for that, certainly, but at the end of the day you’ve gotta win games, too. It’s a moot point if they get to 6 or 7 wins this year, so I hope that’s what happens. But if at the end of the year you’re talking about a guy who has gone 2-10, 5-7, 5-7 in the transfer portal era….. Do I think State could find someone that could do better than that? Yes, I do.

I was optimistic when he was hired. And I still think his offensive scheme is very good. But the program building has not been a strength for him. State hasn’t recruited well and his staff hires have been iffy at best at many positions. I’m open to being wrong on this but right now it sure feels like Lebby is another classic case of “good coordinator, bad head coach”. Which would be the third time that’s happened for State in the last decade. So maybe next time hire someone with head coaching experience, just a thought. Lebby’s winning percentage is worse than Sly Croom’s. And I would argue that Croom was a superior program builder too.

I am going to say “it depends”. I kinda need to know how they get to whatever record. At 7-5 he’s probably getting an extension and I would say job well day for weathering the storm and winning games in spite of key injuries. He’s very likely back at 6-6 too. The only thing I think that could sway that MAYBE is if they go to Oxford on Black Friday and it’s a 2008, 45-0 style massacre. If they go 5-7, that would mean they lost 7 of 8 to finish the year and lost to Vandy and Auburn at home. I don’t think he’s going to have many in his corner if that happens. There was a lot of smoke before the year that Lebby was told that the expectation was 7-5 better. Maybe the injury situation buys him a little leeway, but how much? I do think it’s really important that State look competitive in these last 5 games. If they go out and lose to Vandy at home and get smoked by Texas, Auburn, and OM…. I don’t know that anyone has any faith in this guy even with Kamario next season. Because I will go ahead and say now, the expectation for a Lebby Year 4 with a returning Kamario would be 24 team Playoff or bust. I think that much would be pretty cut and dry.

Kamario officially out for the season. Take me back to September. It was a lot more fun than October has been for State fans.

Elephant in the room on Kamario…. Him getting hurt is kinda not a unique thing? He’s had some issues going back to high school. I love the player, but you kinda have to go into next year fully understanding there’s a good chance he might not make it through a whole season.

Fairly or unfairly, Lebby’s biggest problem is that other programs that were previously in a similar station to State have risen from the ashes quickly. Cignetti is a unicorn, or so I thought, but now I’m seeing Kentucky and UCLA in the Top 10 with Year 1 coaches too. Heck, UCLA lost its starting QB weeks ago and just kept winning anyway. It’s not the previous era of slow roster building anymore. There is a lot of evidence of multiple programs being able to turn the ship around fairly quickly. It’s hard to watch State this season and not come away from it thinking that Kamario was covering up a ton of problems that have yet to be fixed three years in. State is a terrible line of scrimmage team for the third year in a row. And recruiting doesn’t seem to suggest that’s being fixed anytime soon. State has had some tough injury luck this season, no question. But so have other teams. At a certain point, and we’re more than 2.5 seasons into this operation, your record just ultimately says what you are. 11-21 and 3-18 say a lot of not good things. And heck, you can throw out his first season where the roster was in shambles, and his SEC record the last two years is still only 3-10. I get what you’re saying about letting the whole season play out. And heck, maybe they find a way to rally the troops, beat Vandy and Auburn, and finish 7-5. But if you made me call it right now, the only game the rest of the season that I think any State fan can have much confidence in is Tennessee Tech.

I think often about the fact that in 2023, Fritz was at Tulane, Sumrall was at Troy, and Cignetti was at JMU. All three left for jobs that at the time would have been considered lesser jobs than State. And State hired an unproven OC to be its head coach.

Ole Miss is still probably going to finish 9-3 at worst. That Georgia game in a few weeks obviously looms large, but it’s in Oxford. If Kamario is done for the year, which is kinda what it looked like today, State’s best case scenario is 6-6. And that would require them winning the Vandy game that I’m not sure I would pick them to win if you made me call it today.

OM made it REALLY interesting. But Texas hangs on. Only two SEC teams remaining with one loss. Georgia and Kentucky, just like we all expected!

Texas has Chambliss seeing ghosts and the next QB they’ll see is…. Billy Puckett. lol. OM has been a strange team week to week this year.

I would be pissed if I were Minnesota, SC, or Mizzou that they didn’t get to play this version of State. Oklahoma is not a good football team and State was fortunate to only lose by 8 to them today. In Starkville.

BYU, Texas Tech, and Tennessee all lose. The path to the Playoff this year….. A really weird one.

OU wins by 8. The QB problem at State will get the most talk, but that was an absolutely terrible defensive showing by State too. OU missed three field goals or that game isn’t remotely close. Best offensive showing of the season by a bad offense. I think that Vandy game in two weeks is potentially Lebby coaching for his job. Can’t believe it has turned as quickly as it has. But there are more problems than just Kamario being injured. MANY more.

Just feels like State was a house of cards this year and it took one or two injuries to take them from Top 20 team to I’m not totally sure they get to 6-6 now. This is the kind of game that will get the Lebby hot seat talk going again.

Oklahoma is only up 10-0 and it feels like an insurmountable lead.

Kamario hurt again late first quarter. Scrambled on a 4th down and you could tell immediately there was a problem. These next three quarters are going to be a painful watch with these two offenses. 3-2 the sequel?