Dawg83

Hopefully they can finish it off, I think they’ve only been to one Super Regional ever. Unfortunately their Super Regional pairing would likely be at Oklahoma, but hey just keep winning and see what happens. State’s softball program has been quietly solid for a long time, unfortunately the SEC in softball is just ridiculous. Especially now with OU and Texas, too. A former college job of mine was scoreboard operator for State softball. In the old stadium that was pretty much high school quality, I was gone by the time they built Nusz Park which is a pretty neat venue. Vann Stuedman was nice the handful of interactions I had with her. Borderline crazy lady, but still nice. Sam Ricketts is probably the best coach they’ve ever had at this point.

OM in Hattiesburg as the 2 seed certainly in play. Could also be Arkansas in Hattiesburg.

Congrats to USM on the outright Sun Belt title. They are a lock to host, could still challenge for a Top 8. Ole Miss feels like they’re going to be on the road for Regionals now barring a deep run in Hoover, if even then. i still tend to think State hangs on to their host spot…. But I don’t exactly feel great about this team surviving a Regional at the moment. I feel like USM and OM are more equipped to get to a Super or Omaha just based on pitching depth.

You certainly can’t discount the impact of the McPherson injury, I will cede that. It was still frustrating to see State go against a depleted pitching staff this weekend and State’s was the one that ran out of pitching first. A&M has like 5-6 healthy arms. State has plenty of healthy arms right now but nobody they can depend on with any consistency other than Valincius.

A&M outlasts State to take the series. I don’t know what happens with State in the postseason. I feel like this regular season has to go down as a disappointment, though. Especially with how good they looked in February and March. To finish the year losing 5 of your last 7 series, and the only two series wins are against really bad LSU and South Carolina teams…. Yeah, I think this team has left meat on the bone. I think they’re still a host but it’s not a given and they’ve absolutely left the door open for someone to come take their spot.

Right after I typed that State hit back to back homers to take the lead in the 5th…. Feel like this one has some more back and forth to it before the end.

A million runs the first two games so naturally game 3 has been a pitcher duel for the first half of it.

A&M appears to be completely out of pitching for tomorrow, so you would think that lends itself to State being able to score.a bunch of runs again. The problem is I don’t exactly trust State’s pitching to lock things down on the other side. I don’t know how many pitches or innings McPherson can give you tomorrow, but whatever it is, it feels pretty important that they’re quality innings. Pretty important games all over the place tomorrow.

Rubber games in Tuscaloosa and College Station tomorrow. Ole Miss was dominant tonight. State lost a track meet. Could not overcome a rough start from Stone.

Notably, USM now tied for 1st in the Sun Belt with Coastal, who has kinda fallen apart here at the end.

Wellllll State won but they started to find some doubt late. lol. Should’ve won via run rule and then Aiden Teel had the worst night a defensive sub has ever had. Won 18-11. And State ended up using more of its pen than it ever should have. We will see if that ends up being a factor the rest of the weekend. State is pretty close to locking up a host spot, one more win this weekend would remove any doubt and put them back in the Top 8 discussion. Ole Miss lost a tight one to Bama to open their series. Feel like that one will go down to the wire, possibly in all three games.

The only time I can think of where that nearly happened was 2005…. Ole Miss swept the season series and won the Mayor’s Trophy/Gov Cup…. Then the two teams met a fifth time in the tourney championship game in Hoover and State finally got a win. I was there for that one.

State slow out of the gate and then casually hung a 13 spot in the third inning. Ok then.

If the season ended today, you’d probably be getting State vs Ole Miss Part 5 in Hoover…. This time on a Wednesday morning at 9:30 am. That’s a very very possible 8 vs 9 game in Hoover.

Apparently A&M will be without its best starting pitcher this weekend. Big opportunity for State if they can get some decent pitching of their own.

USM is hosting with a sweep this weekend, no doubt about it. And they may have a chance for a Top 8 seed if they can do that and then go and win the conference tourney, IMO. I do think USM gets the sweep, and Coastal drops at least one game, so USM would be either an outright or co-champ of the Sun Belt. Ole Miss-Bama is a true toss up in my eyes, I think those are two very similar teams. I guess i give the slight edge to Bama at home, but a OM series win would be the farthest thing from a surprise. The starting pitching all weekend should be really impressive. Going to come down to who makes the fewest mistakes. I’ve been pretty pessimistic with my State series predictions in recent weeks, I think I even picked them to lose the LSU series lol. But I actually have had my eyes on this series for a little while as one I liked State’s chances in. A&M’s pitching is not on the level of the teams State has struggled to beat, and they are also coming in a little banged up in their position player group. I think State has a chance to get the offense going in a big way, and I think they have the better pitching of the two teams. State wins 2 and locks up a host, with a Top 8 seed TBD in Hoover.

It’s a weird State team because they are still very much in the hosting mix, not totally dead from a Top 8 standpoint, but when they play these upper teams in the league they have felt like they don’t stack up super well. One of those things where you just gotta hope McPherson can get healthier in time for the Regional and hope the team gets hot at the right time. Oak’s postseason track record says a deep run is still very much on the table. But this team has now lost more SEC series than it’s won, so if you told me they didn’t make it out of a Regional I wouldn’t really be surprised either.

State gets run ruled. Probably kills any Top 8 seed hopes barring a sweep of A&M. And not totally safe from a hosting perspective, still likely need another win or two between next weekend and Hoover.

Auburn has used two of their big relievers in extended innings both of the first two games. Sanders specifically that threw last night has been their top bullpen guy. But they’ve got some other options. And their Sunday starter is a good one. I presume everyone except for Miller and Davis can go for State. Through two games I have felt like State is the better team between these two, but Auburn does the little things well and are very good in their own right. This is an important game for both sides, probably moreso for State though. Really need another signature series win besides just Ole Miss.

Rubber match at The Dude tomorrow, and O’Connor just confirmed that McPherson is getting the start, albeit on a pitch count. Regardless of how tomorrow goes, great to hear that he’s starting to work his way back. When he’s healthy and on his game, he’s every bit as good as Valincius. Maybe he can gradually ramp up to full go by the time Regional play gets here.

OM with a big opening win over A&M. USM came back to beat James Madison. State trailing Auburn in the 6th but still close for now, we will see how this one finishes.

Rumor mill buzzing that McPherson may be starting Game 3. Curious to see if and how that plays out. But tonight is a big game too. Need Stone to have a competitive start.

Honestly I thought it was one of the best games State has played all year. State hit a really good pitching staff pretty dang hard, Valincius had his best start in a while, and Bauer was as good as he possibly could’ve been out of the pen. Would be big series win if State can find one more this weekend. Auburn has plenty of arms still ready, but State should be pretty well rested in the pen too.

This dang portal and NIL era, these dudes get unlimited eligibility I guess. TBA has been in college for at least a decade now***

Rotations just announced. Valincius starting for State tomorrow, Auburn starting one of their two best arms too. So much for my thinking that tomorrow would be a wing it kind of game for both.