Dawg83

Pretty atrocious weekend all around, very lucky to not get swept. Can’t really explain how bad State played, mostly disappointing in the pitching and defense. Got hit hard by a bad offense and had one of the worst defensive weekends I can remember seeing from an SEC team. Top 8 seed is definitely on the verge of slipping away, pretty much a must win series in Tuscaloosa next weekend in that regard. This weekend was a good reminder that no matter how good you think you are, you can get your teeth kicked in by a lesser team on any given weekend. I don’t have a good read on State’s postseason chances whatsoever. If you told me they were playing for a championship it wouldn’t shock me, if they got bounced in their own Regional after 2-3 games it wouldn’t shock me.

I will give Mizzou credit, after blowing a game they should’ve won Thursday and blowing a couple of different leads on Friday I expected them to either lay down or unravel again. But they obviously came to play and have taken advantage of a State team that seems to be sleepwalking a little bit. Surprised to be in this spot but State can’t afford another loss today or their Top 8 seed is on much more shaky ground. Last night probably dashed any SEC title hopes unfortunately. I do think that game was a little bit of the law of averages catching up with State, they’ve stolen a few wins in conference play, even some of the series they’ve swept were very close on a game by game basis. I think most, including State’s players it would seem, probably took a sweep for granted this weekend, and that’s not as easy as it looks even against bad teams. Arkansas, who seems be clearly the best team in the country right now, has had a difficult time sweeping bad teams, they dropped home games to both Auburn and A&M. That said, you can justify dropping a game but you can’t go and drop this series. I think they’ll probably be fine today but I’ve been wrong many times before. Hats off to Bianco for trusting his best guy against Rocker and it paid off for him. The next two days depends on how OM pitching holds up but I think they have every chance to win the series. I’ve been of this opinion for a while but this notion that Vandy is untouchable is just inaccurate. They’re very good, but not on the same level as some of their other great teams. I think it’s far from a given that they make it to Omaha.

All three Mississippi schools made the List of 20 for hosting, good news. Biggest surprises are probably Gonzaga and South Carolina making the cut and only two ACC teams (Notre Dame and Pitt) in the mix.

I don't know that Lemonis actually cares a ton about winning the SEC. If it happens I'm sure he'd be thrilled, but he's more about setting himself up the best for the postseason. I think that's why they've used Sims less frequently than they probably could have. Either way, if State is able to go 4-1 or 5-0 in their remaining games then there's pretty good chance they will be, at the very least, co-champions with somebody else. I still tend to think State sweeps this weekend. Fascinated to see what happens in Knoxville and Oxford this weekend, those two series have huge SEC title implications. And of course Ole Miss could really use a series win to boost their hosting chances. The list of 20 possible sites should be out by midday today, I expect State and Ole Miss to be on that list, it's going to be really close for USM. I think they are more than deserving though. My fear is that they will get bumped for a random team from the midwest for "geography reasons".

State squeaks out an ugly win against Mizzou to start the series. Played horribly for the first 2/3 of the game but hung around long enough to claw back into it and steal a win from a bad team. Bullpen was excellent on a night where starting pitching, hitting, and defense were all below average.

Officially confirmed, Hoglund out for the year and will have TJ surgery. Hate it for the guy, really talented pitcher. Injuries are far from the only issues that OM has had, but it would be disingenuous to not acknowledge that injuries have played a significant role in making this team a lesser version of what it could’ve been.

I do think football and baseball are a little different. The tiebreaker to determine which team goes to Atlanta is far more significant than the tiebreaker to determine who gets the 1 seed or the 2 seed in Hoover. I have rolled my eyes a little over the years at the 2003 football thing but as I mentioned, I have no issue whatsoever with Ole Miss claiming an SEC baseball title in 2009 even though they were the 3 seed in Hoover. It’s going to come down to the wire for Ole Miss and their hosting chances. Overall SEC record is fine right now but I can’t help but wonder if all the series losses are really going to ding their resume. I mean at this point you’re pretty clearly sixth in the pecking order among potential SEC host sites, given that Florida has seemingly gotten it together and has the head to head advantage. Does the SEC get rewarded with six sites in a COVID year when Team 6 has lost the majority of their series in league play? Man that may be a tough sell. Barring a major, major collapse, State is a Top 8 seed. It would take 2-4 or worse in the last six and a bad showing in Hoover. As bad as Missouri is and with Bama’s pitching falling apart due to injury, the schedule really sets up nicely the next two weeks. I don’t know that the No. 1 overall seed is in reach since Arkansas swept you in Starkville, but I do think State could end up as high as No. 2 overall. They’re probably in the 2 to 4 range at the moment. My prediction for the 20 “possible” host sites when announced later in the week: LOCKS: Arkansas, MSU, Vandy, Tennessee, TCU, Texas, Notre Dame, Arizona, Oregon, Texas Tech, Stanford, Florida PROBABLE: East Carolina, Louisiana Tech, HOSTING BUBBLE: Ole Miss, Pitt, Charlotte, Southern Miss, Florida State, Indiana JUST MISSED THE CUT: UCLA, South Carolina, Oregon State, Miami, Gonzaga I feel pretty confident in about 16 or 17 of those 20 making the cut, but the last few spots I have no idea about.

For the record, there are no “tiebreakers” for determining SEC champions, just for Hoover seeding. If there’s a tie at the top then all of the tied teams are co-champs. It’s happened several times in the past, on a local level Ole Miss fans probably remember that happening with them in 2009. Even if State doesn’t win any Hoover tiebreakers, if they are tied for first they will be officially recognized as a conference champion. Just wanted to get that out of the way ahead of time since we may be headed that direction and I’m sure there will be naysayers if/when it does happen. Ok now onto the actual games. For State you hate to lose a very winnable game like that but it’s tough to sweep quality teams on the road. SC has a couple of very good bullpen arms and they proved it today. But State still won a road series against the No. 12 RPI team, so can’t really call the weekend anything short of a success. Ole Miss is once again playing with fire here. I expect them to make the list of 20 possible hosts this week, but if they finish any worse than 3-3 in the last six then they’re not going to host. Simple as that. And closing with Vandy and a road series against a Georgia team that will be desperate is by no means any easy final two series. Fascinated to see if USM makes the cut for a possible host. I believe they are deserving. I’m also of the opinion that Hattiesburg and Oxford will get one host site between the two of them, and the teams will be paired together regardless.

State wins 9-6 to take the series. It was a blowout most of the way but some errors in the 7th made it interesting. But then Sims came in for the last two innings and shut it down. State has done what they have to do to keep themselves in the SEC title hunt. Would really help if you can finish off the sweep and then have Georgia and Alabama find a way to take one this weekend. I’m not above claiming a shared championship in baseball if it comes down to that. But you’ve gotta like how State has positioned itself given that their last two weekends are seemingly far easier than the other contenders.

State dominated Carolina last night 9-0. MacLeod was outstanding, one of the better starts of his career. State got ahead by multiple runs early and SC never really threatened that much. Strong showing all around. Really bad night for Ole Miss, not only did they lose on a walk-off homer, Hoglund exited early with an injury. Really hope he ends up being ok, he’s a very talented guy poised to make a lot of money in the very near future. Everything else in the league went about like you’d expect it to. No movement among the Top 4, all of those teams won last night.

Final weekend before the 20 "possible" hosts are announced so I'm curious to see what happens around the league. Not really any marquee series honestly, it's mostly the good teams playing the lesser teams. State-SC is the only matchup of two ranked teams. Florida dropped Game 1 to Kentucky last night, that seems like a series UF can't really afford to lose if they want to host. Would also be a huge series win for UK if they can take one more, I know they are squarely on the bubble just to get in the tournament. State-SC is a series I'm not sure what to expect. I fully believe State is the better team, but on the road, in that stadium, I could see SC taking the series. Not to mention SC is the more desperate of the two teams right now, given that they are on that hosting bubble too. I guess I'll say State wins two games but anything other than State getting swept wouldn't shock me. I think Ole Miss sweeps A&M. The Aggies are bad, have no hope of making the NCAA Tourney, their coach is seemingly on the way out, and I think getting swept by State last weekend may be what makes them lay down and tap out for this season. If I had to call it today I don't think they even qualify for Hoover.

Kylin could've made himself some money via playing in the Air Raid had it all worked out. If you recall, he looked great as a pass catching RB in Week 1 against LSU and that was all anyone was talking about. Then he got hurt on one of the first plays against Arkansas, then whatever happened in Lexington happened, and that was the end of Kylin at MSU. My understanding was that him not being with the team after the Kentucky game was a mutual decision, and that he was very much not blameless in that situation. Granted, we now know that State wasn't a very good team and I don't know that he makes a huge difference in how the season would've played out, so I do think there's merit to the argument that he should've gone pro after 2019. I think Kylin is a guy with a high ceiling but I worry that his personality is going to hinder him. He's gotta find some maturity pretty soon, and you didn't see that just a ton at State. Whether it be his demeanor on social media, or him noticeably asking to come out of the game at certain times, or the several times he was helped off the field like he had a broken leg or torn ACL only to be back in the game a few plays later. That won't fly at the professional level, and I hope he realizes that, because as a 7th round pick he's going to have to really kill it in training camp and the preseason just to make the roster.

State is a Top 4 seed if the season ended today. 5-4 down the stretch should lock them into the Top 8. I think pretty similarly for Ole Miss and hosting, 5-4 in the last 9 should be enough. 4-5 could be too with a decent showing in Hoover. Don’t rule out USM for a host spot just yet either. C-USA has four teams very much in contention to get a host, and my guess is whoever wins the league probably gets it. Charlotte has the edge right now but if USM can find a way to finish strong, they are very much in the mix. Just gotta make the Top 20 cut in a couple of weeks first, and it’s probably going to be really close.

Four straight series losses isn’t good, but you’re right, no sweeps in that stretch was big. And 9-0 in conference play outside of that four week stretch is very loud. And I’m here to tell you Ole Miss might sweep again next weekend, A&M is not good whatsoever. State gets the sweep at home against a bad team, didn’t play great but took care of business like a good team should. May have found some more guys out of the pen they can count on too, I was really impressed with Simmons and Tullar. And I think maybe after weeks of tinkering it’s possible they’ve finally found the right combo in the field. Brad Cumbest impressed me a lot this weekend, and I think moving James to DH with Leggett at 3B is a better trade off than sticking witch Hatcher in the lineup. I really feel bad for the guy because he’s not a bad player at all but is having a brutal year. SEC title race is really getting interesting, we’ll finish the weekend with 4 teams within a game of first, and either 5 or 6 teams within two games of first (depending on how UF/Vandy goes tomorrow).

Would think that puts OM back on the right side of the hosting bubble and possibly knocks South Carolina off of it.

State wins in 12 innings. On one hand they played sloppy defense and left a million guys on base again, on the other hand they were down 7-3 in the 7th and came back to win without allowing a hit the rest of the way, Odd game, Doubleheaders in Starkville and Oxford tomorrow, should be a fun day.

Obviously a massive series in Oxford this weekend with Ole Miss and South Carolina. Major hosting implications for both teams. Really feels like OM can't afford to drop five series in a row. At a certain point you've gotta start winning some of these series. That said, I tend to think OM does that this weekend. I'm not really sold on SC, and if OM can avoid further bullpen meltdowns I think they have a great chance to win the series. I like the matchup for State against A&M this weekend if they can keep the ball in the strike zone and play clean defense. A sweep is very much on the table, but as long as you win the series you'll at the very least hold serve in the national seed discussion. I'll be keeping my eyes on Arkansas-LSU and Vandy-Florida as well this weekend.

Thought Moore might go to Green Bay at 29, but that would've made too much sense and they apparently don't care a whole lot about offering an olive branch to Aaron Rodgers. He will go pretty quickly tonight. Not expecting any State players until Saturday.

Add another wrinkle to the hosting process, apparently they are now going to use the May 10th date to announce 20 "possible" host sites and then pick 16 from that group at the end of the season. Not really sure what the point of naming 20 possible sites is if you're just picking 16 at the end of the year like always. But at least they are using the entire body of work for host selection instead of ignoring the last 3 weeks of the season. This seems to be significant from an Ole Miss perspective. I don't think they're currently in the Top 16 but I bet they would be on that list of 20 if the season ended today. I've been under the impression that they needed to go 4-2 in the next two weeks to get in the Top 16, but at this point 3-3 is probably good enough to make the initial cut. Then you've just got to play well down the stretch to lock down a host. State should be safely locked in as a host barring a major collapse the next few weeks, more about trying to nail down a national seed now.

It will probably be a light draft for State. 2-3 guys tops, all Day 3 guys. Some combination, of Kylin, Erroll, Kobe, and Marquiss Spencer. Not really expecting anyone outside of that. I think Moore is going to be a solid NFL player. Probably somewhere in between what Treadwell did and what DK and AJ are doing. Seems like he is projected to be a late 1st/early 2nd round guy, which I think suits him well.

Barring a late comeback looks like Vandy will take the series from State. Had chances today for sure, led 4-0 at one point but then the bats went cold and there were a few defensive plays to be made that weren’t. Many are questioning the decision to not pull Fristoe sooner, I could go either way with it. Hindsight is always 20/20, to me it was less a bonehead move and moreso something that just didn’t work out. 8-4 in the last 12 should get State a Top 8 seed comfortably. I think that’s very doable given the remaining schedule.

Yes, no matter what this OM team has Omaha potential. Issue is the host sites are being decided in about two weeks. Gotta get right soon or you’ll have to make your postseason run on the road.

If it was just about any other coaching staff you’d see probably see Sims at one point today. But that’s just not how Lemonis does things. Like you said, he tends to be conservative, at least when you’re still in the middle of the season. I do seem to remember him using Cole Gordon almost every game in the postseason two years ago, so I do wonder if Sims’ usage will go up once we get to May and June. But clearly Lemonis is trying to keep him fresh until then.

I turned off the Ole Miss game in the Top of the 8th. Thought I was being lied to when someone told me they came back and won. Obviously it doesn’t totally save the weekend for OM but it keeps it from being an enormous failure. The South Carolina series next weekend is enormous, feels like whoever loses that series won’t be hosting. Big time win for State. Bednar was better than Leiter tonight, plain and simple. A loss tomorrow isn’t a big deal at all, and they will probably have to win it without Sims, but perhaps between Fristoe, Harding, and Stinnett you still have enough bullets left in the chamber. I frankly haven’t seen much difference between the two teams to this point, and tomorrow’s game feels wide open.

If State can pick up one game this weekend they aren’t totally out of it in the West. I like State’s schedule in the last four weeks better than I like Arkansas’s. Truthfully for State I am less concerned with the West and more concerned about staying in the Top 8 overall. I think 19 SEC wins is probably the magic number to lock it up. Might have a chance with 18 if you play well in Hoover.