Dawg83

Florida beats Kentucky in the first game in Hoover so they'll play State tomorrow morning. UF threw their Friday night guy today and is throwing their Saturday guy tomorrow, who has truthfully probably been their best starter the last month or two. Given that State is throwing midweek arms and doesn't have a ton to play for, I'd probably give Florida an edge in this game. I like State's chances better with MacLeod or Bednar on the mound but we won't see either of those guys until Thursday and Friday (if State is still playing on Friday).

Elite power hitting team, elite defensively, and an elite bullpen arm that they haven’t been shy about going to early and often. Those things have been the difference for them all year.

Ole Miss is starting Nikhazy tomorrow. I'd be curious to know what the resident OM fans think about that, I personally think it's a bad idea but I'm obviously not in a position to make those decisions. I'll predict a State/Vandy championship. If both can win their Wednesday game with midweek pitching, I like their chances to get to the final with the combination of MacLeod/Bednar and Rocker/Leiter.

As long as they don't go to Hawaii...

I am hoping they let Cerentola start the Wednesday game. Low risk, high potential reward if he starts figuring it out. Could be this year’s version of Zac Houston in a dream scenario, and worst case scenario is he stinks and you lose a pretty meaningless game. I actually think State is the best team on their side of the bracket, just don’t know how motivated they will be for this week. I could pretty easily see them coming out flat for a morning time game on Wednesday and getting smoked.

Arkansas is one of the better SEC teams of recent memory. I’d love to see how they stacked up against the Vandy team that won it all two years ago. But they are pretty much a complete team. Only question I have is on starting pitching, especially if their #2 guy ends up being out for the year with an injury. But they are so good in all of the other phases that their up and down starting pitching really hasn’t been an issue for them. I truthfully have not watched much Tennessee this year but the turnaround that program has had is incredible. They were a total joke for about 15 years, now they look like a legit national title contender. I realize Hoover doesn’t mean much for the top 5 or 6 teams this year, but I think that’s going to be a really fun tournament. The SEC Baseball tourney has always been one of my favorite sporting events.

Kentucky rallied to beat Vandy, so State ends up as the 3 seed. They’ll play the UF/UK winner on Wednesday morning.

State gets the sweep. Houston Harding was outstanding out of the bullpen, really locked things down after a bad start to the game. State won’t play until Wednesday in Hoover, and will either be the 3 or 4 seed depending on how Kentucky/Vandy goes (Vandy currently leading a close game late). Georgia smoking Ole Miss today but Florida is about to get swept by Arkansas so OM should hold on to the 5 seed. They’ll play Auburn in the late game on Tuesday. Could easily be looking at State vs. Ole Miss in the late game on Wednesday. I’d be interested to know how Bianco would pitch that game, no way State throws MacLeod until Thursday. Productive weekend, both teams got more than what they needed. Hoover shouldn’t matter a ton for either. MAYBE there’s an outside chance Ole Miss could claim a national seed if they win the tournament, but even that is a huge maybe. I’d still have Ole Miss in the 11 to 13 range overall right now. I think State has solidified their Top 8 seed with the sweep.

EDIT: I posted earlier that State had locked up a Top 4 seed in Hoover, don’t believe that’s correct. There’s a possible scenario involving a 3 way tie with Tennessee and Ole Miss that would leave State as the 5 seed and give Ole Miss a Tuesday bye. So it’s all still convoluted, as you can see. State and Ole Miss both could finish as high as 3, State could finish as low as 5 and Ole Miss as low as 6. State controls their own destiny for a Tuesday bye, Ole Miss needs some help. Regardless of how Hoover shakes out, great weekend so far for both teams. If State gets this version of MacLeod and Bednar in June, they’re a legit national title contender. And Ole Miss is never out of a game with that offense, plus it seems like maybe they are starting to find one or two guys out of the bullpen that can get outs.

If you're peeking ahead to Hoover, State needs one more win and one more Florida loss to lock in a Top 4 seed and avoid having to play on Tuesday. Ole Miss would have to sweep and have State lose the next two to get in the Top 4. Florida owns the tiebreaker against both State and Ole Miss so either team would have to finish ahead of Florida. State technically still has a path to a shared SEC title as strange as that sounds. It would require sweeping Bama, Arkansas losing the next two games, and Vandy and Tennessee both dropping one game. That all seems pretty unlikely but it's interesting to say the least. State would be in prime position to win the league outright had the Sunday game in Columbia and the Mizzou series not gotten away from them. My guess is most of the key series split the two remaining games and things end up pretty close to where they are right now. The most likely scenario is probably State being the 4 seed in Hoover and Ole Miss the 6. But Ole Miss could grab the 5 spot and then that would set up an interesting late game on Wednesday night...

Howland just about bringing in a whole new team from the transfer portal. Shakeel Moore from NC State announced earlier in the week, Rockett Watts (what a name) from Michigan State apparently about to be in the boat as well. Big news considering DJ Stewart decided to stay in the draft (a decision I'm not real sure about if we are being honest). If you count Tolu Smith, State's starting five next year will be four transfers and Iverson Molinar. I expect Brooks, Jeffries, and Moore to start immediately and Watts to be the backup PG.

2 of 3 should be good enough. The only thing that would concern me is if Florida somehow won the series in Fayetteville. Not expecting that but if it does happen by chance then it changes the discussion for sure. If State and Florida are some combination of the 4 and 5 seeds in Hoover and have to play each other once or twice, those games next week could have some significance.

Latest D1 projections have State at No. 8 overall and Ole Miss at No. 13. I think that's arguably a tad low for State but not too terribly far off, and then right on the money for Ole Miss. This projection would have USM and Jackson State in Starkville. https://d1baseball.com/postseason/projected-field-of-64-may-18/ Sportsmaniac, in regard to your comment, I think concerns about State are more about the eyeball test than their resume. Absolutely State has a great resume. They're a little bit of an odd team to watch at times, though. Below average defensively, can't really dispute that. Offensively I think they're better than they get credit for but there are some guys in the lineup really struggling, and certain positions on the field that they've just had a hard time figuring out what they want to do. Starting pitching is... fine? Very talented Friday and Saturday guys but both have some consistency issues, and Sunday is a mystery right now. The bullpen I'm willing to give the benefit of the doubt for this past weekend, them getting hit that hard by a bad offense is a real head scratcher, they've looked much better against teams who are clearly better at the plate than Mizzou is.

With the lineup I'm not sure what more Lemonis can do unfortunately. He has given a bunch of different guys opportunities to grab a spot and none of them have done it. I feel pretty good about 4 or 5 guys right now (TA, Rowdey, Hancock, Tanner, Dubrule) and then the rest of the roster seems to either be hitters that can't play defense or good defenders that can't hit. And then there's the left side of the infield which is killing State right now. Both James and Forsythe have seen their batting averages drop almost 50 points in the last month and they also are struggling mightily in the field. But this roster is what it is at this point, and you've got to make it work with what you have. The Landon Jordan ordeal didn't do anything to help your situation either, I feel like he was competent at the plate and defensively and would be playing a lot right now, but he obviously had different plans. The concerning thing with State's pitching is that while other teams seem to be defining roles and honing in on which guys they can trust, for State you have a bunch of talented but inconsistent arms and no idea who you can trust in what situation. It's Landon Sims and then everybody else (and you can make a strong case that Sims is underused, but I do expect to see more of him moving forward). Even with starters, you feel decent about what you've gotten from Bednar most weeks but MacLeod has been all over the place with his starts. And I have no idea who the number three starter would be right now, that's once again a situation where several guys have gotten opportunities and nobody has been up to the challenge.

Ole Miss for sure should be on the right side of the hosting bubble for now. I agree that they probably host as long as they don’t get swept in Athens. Kinda think Georgia wins two at home but that should still keep Ole Miss in the Top 16. After looking at the whole weekend’s results, the series loss to Mizzou wasn’t as big of a killer for State as it could’ve been. Win two in Tuscaloosa and they should still be a Top 8 seed. And to State’s credit, they responded well after their other two series losses (swept the following weekend both times). So perhaps they can do that again. Right now I would pick State to get the two games they need. If the season ended today I would have State as the 5 or 6 overall seed (maybe as low as 7) and Ole Miss as 13 or 14. But I think State could move up as high as 4 and Ole Miss as high as 9 or 10 depending on how the next two weeks go. I think Ole Miss’s Top 8 chances are a little slim right now, they’d currently be the 6th SEC team in the pecking order and have series losses to two of the teams directly in front of them. A lot would have to go right for Ole Miss to sneak into the Top 8.

I think my concern is that State’s pitching overall has a reputation built more on talent than production with certain guys. Sims is incredible, but I’m not sure there’s another pitcher on staff that’s been all that consistent. Maybe Bednar but even he has had rough days. Middle relief has been very up and down. I just don’t really know what I’m going to get from this bunch in a given day. You’d like to think they nail it down in the postseason but there just hasn’t been a ton of consistency. Also, this is a below average defensive team. Plain and simple. Tend to think State will eventually be fine but if you’re drawing up a recipe for how they have an early postseason exit, this weekend was it.

Pretty atrocious weekend all around, very lucky to not get swept. Can’t really explain how bad State played, mostly disappointing in the pitching and defense. Got hit hard by a bad offense and had one of the worst defensive weekends I can remember seeing from an SEC team. Top 8 seed is definitely on the verge of slipping away, pretty much a must win series in Tuscaloosa next weekend in that regard. This weekend was a good reminder that no matter how good you think you are, you can get your teeth kicked in by a lesser team on any given weekend. I don’t have a good read on State’s postseason chances whatsoever. If you told me they were playing for a championship it wouldn’t shock me, if they got bounced in their own Regional after 2-3 games it wouldn’t shock me.

I will give Mizzou credit, after blowing a game they should’ve won Thursday and blowing a couple of different leads on Friday I expected them to either lay down or unravel again. But they obviously came to play and have taken advantage of a State team that seems to be sleepwalking a little bit. Surprised to be in this spot but State can’t afford another loss today or their Top 8 seed is on much more shaky ground. Last night probably dashed any SEC title hopes unfortunately. I do think that game was a little bit of the law of averages catching up with State, they’ve stolen a few wins in conference play, even some of the series they’ve swept were very close on a game by game basis. I think most, including State’s players it would seem, probably took a sweep for granted this weekend, and that’s not as easy as it looks even against bad teams. Arkansas, who seems be clearly the best team in the country right now, has had a difficult time sweeping bad teams, they dropped home games to both Auburn and A&M. That said, you can justify dropping a game but you can’t go and drop this series. I think they’ll probably be fine today but I’ve been wrong many times before. Hats off to Bianco for trusting his best guy against Rocker and it paid off for him. The next two days depends on how OM pitching holds up but I think they have every chance to win the series. I’ve been of this opinion for a while but this notion that Vandy is untouchable is just inaccurate. They’re very good, but not on the same level as some of their other great teams. I think it’s far from a given that they make it to Omaha.

All three Mississippi schools made the List of 20 for hosting, good news. Biggest surprises are probably Gonzaga and South Carolina making the cut and only two ACC teams (Notre Dame and Pitt) in the mix.

I don't know that Lemonis actually cares a ton about winning the SEC. If it happens I'm sure he'd be thrilled, but he's more about setting himself up the best for the postseason. I think that's why they've used Sims less frequently than they probably could have. Either way, if State is able to go 4-1 or 5-0 in their remaining games then there's pretty good chance they will be, at the very least, co-champions with somebody else. I still tend to think State sweeps this weekend. Fascinated to see what happens in Knoxville and Oxford this weekend, those two series have huge SEC title implications. And of course Ole Miss could really use a series win to boost their hosting chances. The list of 20 possible sites should be out by midday today, I expect State and Ole Miss to be on that list, it's going to be really close for USM. I think they are more than deserving though. My fear is that they will get bumped for a random team from the midwest for "geography reasons".

State squeaks out an ugly win against Mizzou to start the series. Played horribly for the first 2/3 of the game but hung around long enough to claw back into it and steal a win from a bad team. Bullpen was excellent on a night where starting pitching, hitting, and defense were all below average.

Officially confirmed, Hoglund out for the year and will have TJ surgery. Hate it for the guy, really talented pitcher. Injuries are far from the only issues that OM has had, but it would be disingenuous to not acknowledge that injuries have played a significant role in making this team a lesser version of what it could’ve been.

I do think football and baseball are a little different. The tiebreaker to determine which team goes to Atlanta is far more significant than the tiebreaker to determine who gets the 1 seed or the 2 seed in Hoover. I have rolled my eyes a little over the years at the 2003 football thing but as I mentioned, I have no issue whatsoever with Ole Miss claiming an SEC baseball title in 2009 even though they were the 3 seed in Hoover. It’s going to come down to the wire for Ole Miss and their hosting chances. Overall SEC record is fine right now but I can’t help but wonder if all the series losses are really going to ding their resume. I mean at this point you’re pretty clearly sixth in the pecking order among potential SEC host sites, given that Florida has seemingly gotten it together and has the head to head advantage. Does the SEC get rewarded with six sites in a COVID year when Team 6 has lost the majority of their series in league play? Man that may be a tough sell. Barring a major, major collapse, State is a Top 8 seed. It would take 2-4 or worse in the last six and a bad showing in Hoover. As bad as Missouri is and with Bama’s pitching falling apart due to injury, the schedule really sets up nicely the next two weeks. I don’t know that the No. 1 overall seed is in reach since Arkansas swept you in Starkville, but I do think State could end up as high as No. 2 overall. They’re probably in the 2 to 4 range at the moment. My prediction for the 20 “possible” host sites when announced later in the week: LOCKS: Arkansas, MSU, Vandy, Tennessee, TCU, Texas, Notre Dame, Arizona, Oregon, Texas Tech, Stanford, Florida PROBABLE: East Carolina, Louisiana Tech, HOSTING BUBBLE: Ole Miss, Pitt, Charlotte, Southern Miss, Florida State, Indiana JUST MISSED THE CUT: UCLA, South Carolina, Oregon State, Miami, Gonzaga I feel pretty confident in about 16 or 17 of those 20 making the cut, but the last few spots I have no idea about.

For the record, there are no “tiebreakers” for determining SEC champions, just for Hoover seeding. If there’s a tie at the top then all of the tied teams are co-champs. It’s happened several times in the past, on a local level Ole Miss fans probably remember that happening with them in 2009. Even if State doesn’t win any Hoover tiebreakers, if they are tied for first they will be officially recognized as a conference champion. Just wanted to get that out of the way ahead of time since we may be headed that direction and I’m sure there will be naysayers if/when it does happen. Ok now onto the actual games. For State you hate to lose a very winnable game like that but it’s tough to sweep quality teams on the road. SC has a couple of very good bullpen arms and they proved it today. But State still won a road series against the No. 12 RPI team, so can’t really call the weekend anything short of a success. Ole Miss is once again playing with fire here. I expect them to make the list of 20 possible hosts this week, but if they finish any worse than 3-3 in the last six then they’re not going to host. Simple as that. And closing with Vandy and a road series against a Georgia team that will be desperate is by no means any easy final two series. Fascinated to see if USM makes the cut for a possible host. I believe they are deserving. I’m also of the opinion that Hattiesburg and Oxford will get one host site between the two of them, and the teams will be paired together regardless.

State wins 9-6 to take the series. It was a blowout most of the way but some errors in the 7th made it interesting. But then Sims came in for the last two innings and shut it down. State has done what they have to do to keep themselves in the SEC title hunt. Would really help if you can finish off the sweep and then have Georgia and Alabama find a way to take one this weekend. I’m not above claiming a shared championship in baseball if it comes down to that. But you’ve gotta like how State has positioned itself given that their last two weekends are seemingly far easier than the other contenders.