Dawg83

USM is hosting with a sweep this weekend, no doubt about it. And they may have a chance for a Top 8 seed if they can do that and then go and win the conference tourney, IMO. I do think USM gets the sweep, and Coastal drops at least one game, so USM would be either an outright or co-champ of the Sun Belt. Ole Miss-Bama is a true toss up in my eyes, I think those are two very similar teams. I guess i give the slight edge to Bama at home, but a OM series win would be the farthest thing from a surprise. The starting pitching all weekend should be really impressive. Going to come down to who makes the fewest mistakes. I’ve been pretty pessimistic with my State series predictions in recent weeks, I think I even picked them to lose the LSU series lol. But I actually have had my eyes on this series for a little while as one I liked State’s chances in. A&M’s pitching is not on the level of the teams State has struggled to beat, and they are also coming in a little banged up in their position player group. I think State has a chance to get the offense going in a big way, and I think they have the better pitching of the two teams. State wins 2 and locks up a host, with a Top 8 seed TBD in Hoover.

It’s a weird State team because they are still very much in the hosting mix, not totally dead from a Top 8 standpoint, but when they play these upper teams in the league they have felt like they don’t stack up super well. One of those things where you just gotta hope McPherson can get healthier in time for the Regional and hope the team gets hot at the right time. Oak’s postseason track record says a deep run is still very much on the table. But this team has now lost more SEC series than it’s won, so if you told me they didn’t make it out of a Regional I wouldn’t really be surprised either.

State gets run ruled. Probably kills any Top 8 seed hopes barring a sweep of A&M. And not totally safe from a hosting perspective, still likely need another win or two between next weekend and Hoover.

Auburn has used two of their big relievers in extended innings both of the first two games. Sanders specifically that threw last night has been their top bullpen guy. But they’ve got some other options. And their Sunday starter is a good one. I presume everyone except for Miller and Davis can go for State. Through two games I have felt like State is the better team between these two, but Auburn does the little things well and are very good in their own right. This is an important game for both sides, probably moreso for State though. Really need another signature series win besides just Ole Miss.

Rubber match at The Dude tomorrow, and O’Connor just confirmed that McPherson is getting the start, albeit on a pitch count. Regardless of how tomorrow goes, great to hear that he’s starting to work his way back. When he’s healthy and on his game, he’s every bit as good as Valincius. Maybe he can gradually ramp up to full go by the time Regional play gets here.

OM with a big opening win over A&M. USM came back to beat James Madison. State trailing Auburn in the 6th but still close for now, we will see how this one finishes.

Rumor mill buzzing that McPherson may be starting Game 3. Curious to see if and how that plays out. But tonight is a big game too. Need Stone to have a competitive start.

Honestly I thought it was one of the best games State has played all year. State hit a really good pitching staff pretty dang hard, Valincius had his best start in a while, and Bauer was as good as he possibly could’ve been out of the pen. Would be big series win if State can find one more this weekend. Auburn has plenty of arms still ready, but State should be pretty well rested in the pen too.

This dang portal and NIL era, these dudes get unlimited eligibility I guess. TBA has been in college for at least a decade now***

Rotations just announced. Valincius starting for State tomorrow, Auburn starting one of their two best arms too. So much for my thinking that tomorrow would be a wing it kind of game for both.

You don’t have to go back very far to find a State team that didn’t host because of a poor record in nonconference games, so yes definitely a big deal to take care of business against the teams you’re supposed to beat. I don’t remember many close calls either honestly, the Tulane game in Biloxi and the UAB game in Starkville are about it. State-Auburn starts on Thursday which puts both in a weird position. No idea what State does rotation-wise. I suspect Auburn probably holds their top two starters for Friday and Saturday. So that Thursday game feels really important. I’m pretty high on Auburn and don’t love the fact that State’s pitching staff feels like it’s starting to break down a bit. I think the Tigers take the series on the road, Ole Miss badly needs a series win against A&M. I have OM winning it at home, call me a skeptic on A&M because I have State winning the series in Aggieland next week as well. Not sold on their pitching. USM has been heating back up again, I will take them to sweep. They tend to be a team that plays really good baseball in May heading into the postseason.

I think Texas is simply a better team than State, if I’m being honest. At least they certainly are in State’s “no McPherson” current status. But I think the week overall is a net positive for State. Maybe you could’ve taken a big leap up with a series win, but you still took steps forward. Up in the Top 10 of the RPI now, would no question be a host if it was seeded today and they are still in contention for a Top 8 seed. Will need a strong finish to get it though, and obviously Auburn and A&M are a tough close. Heartbreaking loss for Ole Miss, took a lead into the bottom of the ninth only to give up a walk off two run homer. Their hosting status is more iffy right now. They probably need at least 3 or 4 more SEC wins to have a chance, and they also have a tough finish with A&M and Bama. Will be an interesting couple of weeks for both teams. USM got the sweep they had to have. Now need to keep doing it the next two weeks against two more bad teams. If the season ended today, I think there would without question be postseason baseball in Starkville and Hattiesburg, with Oxford being a 50/50 proposition at best. But things can still change for all three in good or bad directions, no doubt about it.

Rubber games in Austin and Fayetteville tomorrow. I like OM’s chances, less confident in State but you’ve given yourself a chance. And pressure is on the home team in both series. USM swept a doubleheader at home today. Need to finish off the sweep tomorrow to stay on a hosting track.

If there is a better starter/closer combo than the one Texas threw at State last night, I’d like to know who it is. Those two dudes were super impressive.

USM had the best night of anybody tonight and they got rained out and didn’t play. lol. Ole Miss got run ruled. State lost a close game technically but got totally dominated by Texas pitching. 19 strikeouts.