Dawg83

I get that you need touchdowns but you don’t have to go for broke in the first quarter. It’s 35-7 now but could be 24-10 and you’re still kinda in the game, but those 4th down calls just killed any chances.

Ole Miss having to really grind to get yards today. The explosive play has not been there to this point. Just doesn’t seem like the talent at receiver is the same as previous years. Kiffin’s 4th down decision making has been…. Interesting to put it nicely.

Georgia destroying Arkansas. This game feels almost identical to State’s trip to Athens in 2017. Still think Arkansas is a good team but UGA is playoff caliber, and might win the whole thing.

Lol At me picking Maryland.

Biggest week of the season to this point in terms of interesting games, especially in the SEC. Bama/Ole Miss is the big one and I expect a highly entertaining game. Corral and Young have been the two best QBs in the country to this point. This was a very competitive game last year (unless you are a fan of defense, lol) and I expect something similar this year. Last week I was ready to pull the trigger on an Ole Miss win, I think I have backed off on that a little. I’ll take Bama 48-38. But I think there is a path to an Ole Miss win, and if it happens, it probably looks similar to how they did it in ‘14 and ‘15 (force turnovers, take advantage of opportunities). State-A&M has low scoring rock fight potential. I had this pegged as a sure loss for State before the year, but I think this may be more winnable than I initially thought. A&M has big issues on offense right now, although they are still very good on defense. I don’t think I can pick State to win, I am still in prove it mode in terms of winning some of these games. But I could see this going like the Georgia game last year. I’ll take A&M 21-14 but it wouldn’t totally shock me if State stole a win on the road. Leach’s record against A&M historically is very good. Quick hits on some other games: Arkansas/Georgia - I think Georgia wins by 2-3 TD’s but if Arkansas somehow wins again, go ahead and give Pittman the Coach of the Year award. Florida/Kentucky - I like Florida in this game, think Kentucky’s record is a bit inflated. Really impressed with what Mullen has done with this group, he is maybe the best in the country at adapting to his personnel. Auburn/LSU - don’t love either of these teams, but Auburn hasn’t won in Baton Rouge in forever, so I’ll take LSU at home. Cincinnati /Notre Dame - Huge game with playoff implications, I’ll take the Bearcats. I’ve got three upset picks as well. Kansas State over Oklahoma, Maryland over Iowa, and Wisconsin over Michigan. Should be a really fun weekend of games, will be hard to leave the recliner.

Yeah next week should be really juicy. Probably the most interesting week on the schedule to this point, at least in the SEC. Both MS teams go into the week playing with house money, albeit with different stakes involved. A loss is expected for both, but a win is not totally out of the question. Ole Miss has more to gain with a win but State probably needs their win more.

My feelings exactly. State could go 3-9 or 6-6 and neither would shock me.

That was eerily similar to Memphis, minus the big ref screw up. This is a text book example of a not very good team finding ways to lose. I lean toward thinking these are the two worst teams in the West and both will have to scratch and claw to get to six wins, and both might not. I walked away totally underwhelmed by LSU. Maaaybe State has an upset in them somewhere if they put it all together, but it feels like everything has to go right for this team to win. If any one play goes wrong on a drive they are toast most of the time.

Leach is not remotely on the hot seat this year. Orgeron could be out by Monday if he loses this game. I firmly believe both of those things.

Such a weird spot for State right now. Everything seems like it’s going terrible but if you beat a not great LSU team on your home field, suddenly you’d somehow find yourself at 3-1. I think most would have taken that before the season. But at this point you definitely feel like the most realistic path to 6 wins for State involves winning this game. Otherwise you’re gonna have to steal a road win somewhere or win the Egg Bowl, and the odds would probably not be in your favor.

State-LSU… where the heck do you even start with this game? Two teams that have not looked good, two bad offenses to this point, two frustrated fanbases…. This has big time train wreck potential. Last year’s game is infamous now, with KJ Costello being the one hit wonder and Bo Pelini refusing to make any adjustments whatsoever. I cannot for the life of me fathom that LSU will be that stupid about their defense again this year. But I do like State’s defense a lot and expect them to keep State in the game. I don’t have a ton of faith in Johnson or Rogers, but whoever has the better game probably wins the game. I think this is a super ugly game, and I’ll stick to my guns and give State a close win at home that would all but guarantee Orgeron is done after this year. And for old time’s sake I’ll say it’s the same score as another infamous Coach O loss in Starkville. State wins 17-14. A&M-Arkansas is the SEC game of the week and I’m fascinated to see how this goes. I like A&M a lot at every position outside QB, and that’s not a great position to have question marks. I don’t think Arkansas is quite as good as their ranking indicates but it’s obvious that Pittman has total buy in and they have really improved over the last couple of years. I think A&M should be the better all around team so I’ll take the Aggies by a TD, but this should be a competitive game and the Hogs could win it. Not a big week of games in general but these weeks seem to be when upsets happen, so I guess we will keep our eyes and ears open.

State-LSU… where the heck do you even start with this game? Two teams that have not looked good, two bad offenses to this point, two frustrated fanbases…. This has big time train wreck potential. Last year’s game is infamous now, with KJ Costello being the one hit wonder and Bo Pelini refusing to make any adjustments whatsoever. I cannot for the life of me fathom that LSU will be that stupid about their defense again this year. But I do like State’s defense a lot and expect them to keep State in the game. I don’t have a ton of faith in Johnson or Rogers, but whoever has the better game probably wins the game. I think this is a super ugly game, and I’ll stick to my guns and give State a close win at home that would all but guarantee Orgeron is done after this year. And for old time’s sake I’ll say it’s the same score as another infamous Coach O loss in Starkville. State wins 17-14. A&M-Arkansas is the SEC game of the week and I’m fascinated to see how this goes. I like A&M a lot at every position outside QB, and that’s not a great position to have question marks. I don’t think Arkansas is quite as good as their ranking indicates but it’s obvious that Pittman has total buy in and they have really improved over the last couple of years. I think A&M should be the better all around team so I’ll take the Aggies by a TD, but this should be a competitive game and the Hogs could win it. Not a big week of games in general but these weeks seem to be when upsets happen, so I guess we will keep our eyes and ears open.

Robertson isn’t ready yet so you may be right. I wish he had been here for the spring. Generally speaking I don’t have any issues with Rogers in terms of ability, and some of his numbers are actually pretty good, but the issue is he has to be the entire offense. And when you combine no running game with a risk averse, ultra conservative passing game, you’re just not going to score enough points to be any good.

Who else would even be in the conversation right now? I guess maybe Bryce Young if he has a big year and Bama does what Bama does. I know Michigan State has an RB off to a strong start but I can’t see him actually winning the award. Rattler was the favorite entering the year but he’s been fairly underwhelming, as has Oklahoma in general. The path is absolutely there for Corral if he has a big game against Bama. He will not have a bigger stage the rest of the regular season.

Eh, Leach bringing in transfer QB’s is nothing new. I also don’t think Jack’s skill set is much different from Rogers. Really do hate that he got hurt and didn’t get much of a chance to compete, though.

Mark Keenum will never allow Hugh Freeze to be hired. Not a chance. The thing is you are kind of married to the Air Raid now. The roster is being recruited to run this particular offense, and going to back to some kind of power running approach will take another pretty big overhaul. You pretty much would have to hire someone who leans more toward pass heavy unless you want a major rebuild. If Graham Harrell is still a coordinator whenever Leach is done, maybe he gets a call. Sonny Dykes at SMU is worth a look. Those are just a couple of names off the top of my head. Don’t think this is a serious conversation until late 2022 at the absolute earliest, though.

It’s pretty rare for any State pass catcher to catch the ball in stride or in space, they are almost always met with immediate contact. It’s not just the RB’s that are going to get hurt. Marks’s injury supposedly isn’t major so hopefully he is back soon. You could tell Johnson was having to gut it out at way less than 100% at the end of the game, I will never question that kid’s toughness. I mean if you’re already getting your guys killed against Memphis, what the heck do you think is going to to happen in SEC play if you keep running the offense this way? You are putting some talented skill position guys in a really tough spot and not really giving them a chance to showcase what they can do.

Looked at some stats with State’s offense and found some interesting notes. Rogers leads the league in passing yards, attempts, and completion percentage, but is 10th in QBR and 11th in yards per attempt. And State is 11th in total offense. What does that tell you? Volume does not equal efficiency for State right now. Relying far too much on these 2-3 yard dump offs and not taking near enough chances on explosive plays. I would be willing to accept a little bit lower completion percentage and a little more turnover risk for a greater sense of urgency on offense. You are asking your OL to do way too much with these drives where you are dropping back to pass 12-15 times and MAYBE you’ll score. Too much room for something to go wrong (penalty, sack, etc.). Maybe it’s a Rogers issue, maybe it’s a play calling issue, most likely it’s some of both. But it’s time to start forcing the issue with this offense. Things have been entirely too conservative this year and the results bear that out.

I agree with most of this. I can’t see them beating Bama/A&M/OM today, and the Kentucky and LSU games are super important, especially at home. I am just not totally totally sold on Arkansas yet, specifically their QB. If you slow down their run and make Jefferson beat you, which I think State’s defense can, you have a chance to beat them. That has the makings of a really ugly game in my opinion, because I don’t have much faith in State’s offense against Odom either. But I stand by that being a game State is capable of winning. Auburn is probably a little bit less likely of a win, but I kinda feel the same way matchup wise as I do with Arkansas. I do not trust their QB and if State can take away the run they will have a real chance to muck it up and win an ugly game. As frustrating as the loss yesterday was, I don’t feel any less confident in State’s defense. Offensively they can’t keep doing this crap where they go dead silent for two quarters every game. But the defense is going to keep them in a lot of games.

He has to continue to do it against SEC competition, but at this stage it’s hard to argue that Corral isn’t a legit Heisman contender. If he has a big game and beats Bama I think he for sure jumps to the front of the line.

We are still a couple of weeks away and I need to think about it some more…. But I might pick Ole Miss to beat Bama.

I mean people aren’t gonna wanna hear it but this kind of loss is not remotely new for a Mike Leach team. Even his good teams had weird, head scratching losses from time to time. Not necessarily calling State a good team this year, but I’m telling you this probably isn’t the last wacky loss Leach has at State, even if he ends up being a big success.

I still consider Arkansas and Auburn to be winnable games. That can change but I feel that’s a reasonable opinion as of today. But you are spot on, the LSU game is massive for State in terms of reaching 6 wins. The path is much more difficult if they lose.

Oddly enough this doesn’t really change my opinion on State. I still view them as a borderline bowl team that has a path to 6 or 7 wins. I’ve thought for months that there were a ton of toss ups on the schedule, still think that’s true. If you find a way to beat a very beatable LSU next week then this is kind of a wash. The officiating on the punt return was really bad. The officiating on the onside kick was at least questionable. It doesn’t change that State should’ve won this game going away but it’s objectively a screw up that potentially cost State the game. That said, other things cost State the game too. An unforced fumble that led to a scoop and score, getting no points when you had first and goal inside the 5, an interception being negated because you had guys not hustling off the field, etc. State probably should’ve won this game by double digits and they didn’t win period. It’s a frustrating loss on many levels, but I picked State to be 2-1 at this point and here they are. There are opportunities to make up for this loss and still have a decent to good season. And even if it ends up being a bad year, Leach will be back next season regardless, so not much point in even considering that he won’t be.

Pretty good first half by State. After the early scoop and score they have clearly looked like the better team. That said, you can make an argument the score should be more lopsided and this one is a long way from being over with Memphis’s offense.