Dawg83

I correctly pegged OM having around 30 points. State’s offense had too many self inflicted wounds and missed opportunities and it cost them the game. Kudos to Kiffin, he’s done a great job at OM and the reward is a Sugar or Peach Bowl appearance. Corral’s career deserves to be celebrated, and he won’t be easily replaced. The Leach dynamic is an odd one currently, I think you legitimately have to view this as a successful season but the 0-2 record against Ole Miss is going to be hard for many State fans to accept. State returns a ton next year and I think many will have expectations of 8-9 wins including winning the Egg. I think we kinda know what to expect with Leach teams now, it’s going to be the typical roller coaster that his teams have always had. I expect State to be sent to the Texas or Liberty Bowl.

Texas Bowl has been the prevailing thought on State this week. I am starting to think that could be the spot regardless of how tomorrow goes. The January 4th date isn’t ideal but it’s a high payout game in an NFL stadium against a Big 12 team, by no means a bad bowl spot even if there are better ones out there. There is still a path to the Citrus Bowl if State wins tomorrow but it also requires A&M losing at LSU (not totally out of the question) and you would also need Ole Miss to make an NY6 game with an Egg Bowl loss.

Yeah there wasn’t much doubt about it after last week but now it seems virtually impossible that State could pass OM in the final rankings. OM is a NY6 lock with a win tomorrow, but could still get in even with a loss, depending on what happens with Bama and the Playoff.

The big pass plays were definitely the difference last year, I want to say there was an 80+ yard TD on a third and long and a couple of other long passes. State’s corner play has been good. Safety play has been hit or miss. I fully expect State to give up a few big plays, the thing to me will be are those plays TD’s? There’s a big difference in a 70 yard TD pass and a 50 yard pass into the red zone where OM still has to work for a score.

I don’t see Fickell as an SEC guy. I think he is a better fit at one of the Big 10 schools. If Franklin goes to USC I could totally see Fickell ending up at Penn State.

Line has moved to State being a slight favorite now, BTW.

So here’s where I’m at currently: State’s offense has been the more effective of the two offenses lately. Rogers has really taken command and this looks like a vintage Mike Leach offense, whereas OM is getting yards but struggling to finish off drives and to score more than 30-ish points. And I generally like State’s defense a little better than OM’s. With the game being in Starkville, I’m inclined to pick State. That said, I’m also aware that OM has been banged up since mid season and is finally getting healthy now. Kiffin and Lebby have been conservative with their use of Corral in the running game lately, and it’s certainly possible they open it up for him a little more on Thursday. Fascinated to see how Arnett accounts for that (if it were me I would spy Corral with Bookie Watson the whole game, but I’m not a defensive coordinator). And then there’s the weather issue… the forecast currently calls for a 70-80% chance of rain on Thursday evening. One would think that’s not a great recipe for the Air Raid. On the other hand, there were two games last year where the weather was iffy (Mizzou and Tulsa) and State actually ran the ball a bunch and was able to beat two solid teams. I feel like if needed they can go that route this year as well. Look, it’s the Egg Bowl, it’s almost always going to be a coin flip game. You can make just about any prediction for this game and be justified in doing so. I‘m excited for this one and think it has the potential to be an all time great Egg Bowl. I think I will stick with my original prediction and go with State at home. 35-30 final score.

Georgia’s rise to becoming a consistently elite team didn’t do him any favors. He was able to get away with 6 to 8 wins and mediocre recruiting at State, but everybody knew it wouldn’t fly at Florida. Still think he’s a good coach, but his recruiting deficiencies and the fact that he generally has not been super likable as a person doomed him at UF. He needs to get out of the SEC footprint for a little while, I think he can be a heck of a coach in the ACC or Big 10 or a good coordinator in the NFL. And if he ever looks in the mirror and gets the recruiting part of it figured out then maybe he can return to the SEC one day and find success again.

Early line (prior to yesterday’s games) was Ole Miss -2. I kinda expect it to be a pick ‘em by kickoff.

The NFL game will crush the Egg Bowl in terms of TV ratings. The NFL went in years ago and decided they wanted Thursday’s to be their day, and it kinda killed a lot of these big college matchups that seemed to happen frequently on Thursday’s. There isn’t isn’t a ton of benefit from an exposure standpoint in playing the EB on Thursday anymore. It made sense 20 years ago from a TV perspective, but it makes less sense now. It will get social media buzz from the CFB diehards and some writers but it won’t be the most watched game of the season for either team in all likelihood.

Short week this week and I’m sure many will have family obligations as we get closer to Thursday, so I figured why not get the discussion going sooner? I’ll go into some more detailed thoughts on Sunday or Monday when I have a little more time to think on it. But this is obviously the biggest Egg Bowl since 2015 and it’s always more interesting when both teams are good. I think there’s a strong case to be made that regardless of who wins the Egg it’s been a successful season for both programs Exciting week ahead, looking forward to the discussion.

Not exactly a recipe for success if they duplicate it against State. And State is perfectly capable of getting in ball control mode and doing the death by 1,000 cuts thing.

If Florida and LSU win next week you will have 13 bowl eligible SEC teams this year. And it only feels like about half of them are any good. LOL.

I’m sure there is some look ahead involved and there is some historical precedent, but Ole Miss not exactly looking sharp against Vandy.

The Egg Bowl will be a battle of Top 25 teams while Florida vs Florida State will be two 5-6 teams playing for bowl eligibility. How bout that?

Not many takeaways from the State game, which is a good thing in a game like that. All I will say is that it’s still kinda crazy to me to see a State QB put up some of the numbers Rogers has put up this year. He’s got a chance to end up throwing for 4,800 yards and 40 TD’s if he remains healthy through the bowl game.

Kinda cringeworthy to go back and watch State’s first 3-4 games. Even the NC State game was a fairly ugly offensive performance. Something started clicking in the second half of the LSU game and outside of the Bama game this has been a really hard offense to stop since the beginning of October.

A couple of quick Playoff thoughts after looking at the contenders and their remaining games. 1. Barring an unthinkable loss in the next two games, the SEC championship doesn’t matter at all for Georgia. They are getting in basically no matter what. 2. The Big 10 Champ (assuming it’s Ohio State, Michigan, or Michigan State) is getting in… and I kinda think it’s one of the Michigan schools. I’m not sure OSU beats both of them in consecutive weeks. 3. Oregon and Utah will most likely play again in the PAC 12 title game in two weeks… Can the Ducks beat Utah twice in that short time frame to preserve their Playoff spot? I’m pretty skeptical. 4. If Cincy wins out, they going to get in if Oregon or Bama loses one more game. 5. Bama may get in even with a loss to Georgia… if Cincy and Oregon both lose before the end, I’m not sure how Bama wouldn’t be in the Top 4 (assuming they beat Arkansas and Auburn).

There’s probably not a ton worth discussing with State vs Tennessee State and Ole Miss vs Vandy. Curious to see how sharp both teams are a few days away from the Egg Bowl but both of these games should be really lopsided. Hopefully both teams are able to stay injury free and not have to play starters for very long. The schedule this week kinda sucks but there are a couple of games worth diving into. Bama -20.5 vs Arkansas: This is kind of an odd Bama team, at times they’ve looked dominant and other times they’ve struggled with teams that they shouldn’t have. I could see Arkansas being competitive, but I like Bama to win. Might be a blowout if Arkansas plays sloppy. Florida -8.5 at Missouri - I definitely like Mizzou to cover and they may win outright. Feels like Mullen is one more loss away from being toast. Could happen this week or against FSU next week. I’ll take the Gators to win a close one here and Dan hangs on long enough to line up an exit strategy in the next week or two. Auburn -7.5 at South Carolina - Bo Nix out for the year, Auburn lost this exact game last year, can SC do it again? My gut says no. Auburn wins by 10 or so in an ugly affair. Ohio State -19 vs Michigan State - I think Sparty covers but the Buckeyes win Oregon at Utah -3: I think the Utes pull it out and end the PAC 12’s playoff hopes Upset pick for this week is SMU over Cincinnati.

It would require State winning the Egg, A&M and Arkansas losing again, and then the committee ranking a 4 loss State ahead of a 3 loss Ole Miss due to head to head and the same conference record. Veeeeeery much a long shot that it all breaks that way. 13 spots separate State and Ole Miss and I don’t think just an Egg Bowl win is enough to make up that ground. This would be a much more legitimate conversation if State had finished off Arkansas or Memphis, but such is life. If you made me take a stab at the SEC bowls today I think it would go something like this: Georgia - Playoff Bama - Playof or Sugar Ole Miss - likely NY6, outside chance it’s Citrus A&M - probably Citrus, unless they lose to LSU State - Texas Bowl Kentucky - Outback Auburn - Gator Arkansas - Music City Tennessee - Charlotte Florida or Mizzou - Liberty, if both are bowl eligible then one goes to Birmingham.

It’s a long shot and would require some breaks but there maaaaay still be a bath to the Sugar Bowl for State, as strange as that sounds. The SEC automatic tie in with the Sugar means they wouldn’t necessarily have to be in the Top 12, just would have to be the highest ranked SEC team outside the Playoff. Like I said, definitely a long shot, but not totally out of the question if the Egg Bowl and a couple of other results break State’s way. I would put these chances at 5% or less though. Citrus Bowl is a slightly more attainable goal, though my guess is State ends up in the traditional pool of SEC bowl games regardless of how they finish. That’s kind of a crap shoot, because you can go 8-4 and still be equally likely to end up in Tampa as you are to end up in Memphis. It can literally be whatever the league feels like doing, I’m assuming Memphis would be more interested in having State than most other SEC tie ins. Ole Miss is a lock for the NY6 if they win out, whether it’s Sugar, Peach, or Fiesta would depend on what happens with Bama.

It really has required you to forget everything you thought you knew about State. I still catch people getting mad at Rogers for sliding or falling down and not trying to truck linebackers like Dak and Fitz used to. The biggest culture shock has been State having receivers running open all over the field. I am used to watching us play Sun Belt and C-USA teams and being jealous of their WR’s.

It just better prepares you for situations where you have to pass, which are inevitably going to come up. State’s not coming back from that deficit with the Chris Relf or Nick Fitzgerald offense of the Mullen years. No disrespect to those guys because they had really productive careers. You’re just talking about a school who’s had major issues passing the ball historically outside of two guys, and one of them is the current QB. Definitely a high stakes Egg Bowl in that sense. OM winning the EB makes them a lock for a NY6 game, State winning gives them a chance to end up as high as the Citrus Bowl slot, maybe a long long shot for an NY6 game if some weird things happen the next two weeks. Curious to see if or where State is ranked tomorrow night, if it’s somehow back in the Top 20 then there’s absolutely a path for them to end up in a really good bowl game.

Corral probably wins it either way but from a production standpoint it’s an interesting comparison. Corral has the better QBR but Rogers is ahead in total offense, total TD’s, and completion percentage. If State wins the Egg Bowl and Rogers has a huge game, it would not be the most shocking thing in the world for this trophy. Wallace over Banks in 2012 was 100% based on the Egg Bowl, no other justification for it.

The Air Raid is one of the few offensive systems that allows you a real opportunity to come back from a deficit that large, and probably the only system in State’s history that does. Maybe you can make a case for 2015 with a senior Dak and Ross/Wilson/Brown at wideout, but that’s it. 99.9999% of the other teams in State’s history would have been completely finished at 28-3, and that includes a few really good State teams over the years. So kudos to State for an incredibly unlikely road win over one of the better teams in the league. I think we can put to bed the school of thought that the Air Raid won’t work in the SEC. Can certain defenses stop it? Sure, and that’s true of most any offense. But State has improved by leaps and bounds on offense in the last 12 months and has given several good defenses fits this season.