College Basketball Season

[Dawg83]

Big time win for State. Dominated the second half and finally got that big home win. Should be an NCAAT lock now and playing to improve seeding when they should be favored in 4 of their last 5.

[Dawg83]

The hoops talk has died down for whatever reason but two big road games tomorrow. State is at a reeling Oklahoma team and OM is at a Vandy team that’s living on the bubble.

 

Latest Lunardi projections have State as a 5 seed and Ole Miss as a 6 seed. These last 5 games will be big in terms of final seeding.

[Bulldogs4]

Every game is important right now. State absolutely has to take care of business today. 
Oklahoma has been struggling but you can never take anything for granted. 
Playing at Vandy is always tricky plus the fact that they are a decent team. I think Ole Miss will come out and play well today. The off day came at a good time. 

[MSTSatchmo]

Total egg laid by State today against a team that had 3 SEC wins and several blowout losses.   
 

If State’s goal was just to make the NCAAT, congrats. 

[Bulldogs4]

Certainly what I was afraid of. There are no easy games in the SEC. And when you are playing a team that has lost 5 straight, it is a dangerous situation. Credit to Oklahoma as they totally outplayed State today. 

[MSTSatchmo]

5 minutes ago, Bulldogs4 said:

Certainly what I was afraid of. There are no easy games in the SEC. And when you are playing a team that has lost 5 straight, it is a dangerous situation. Credit to Oklahoma as they totally outplayed State today. 

State gave up 54 points to a Top 10 team then turned around the next game and gave up 59 SECOND HALF points to 3-10 SEC team.  

[Raiders 10]

39 minutes ago, MSTSatchmo said:

State gave up 54 points to a Top 10 team then turned around the next game and gave up 59 SECOND HALF points to 3-10 SEC team.  

it definitely was a bad lost look like a Quad 3 lost 

[Dawg83]

53 minutes ago, MSTSatchmo said:

Total egg laid by State today against a team that had 3 SEC wins and several blowout losses.   
 

If State’s goal was just to make the NCAAT, congrats. 

Not gonna lie, I’m not especially phased by this one. We led at half and Oklahoma came out of the locker room playing like their season depended on it, which it did. They had more urgency and cut down on the turnovers that we were giving us the edge in the first half.

It’s a Q1 road loss and we are still 6-3 on the road this season. We had to win one this week and we did. Next week you get a free shot at Bama and then you’ve gotta handle business at home against one of the two worst teams in the league.

 

OU’s SEC record is a little deceiving. They’ve had some struggles but are still considered an NCAA bubble team, arguably even in the field still.

[Dawg83]

31 minutes ago, Raiders 10 said:

it definitely was a bad lost look like a Quad 3 lost 

I’m not sure you understand how the quads work. That was Q1

[Bulldogs4]

It is a bad loss but in the metrics not so much because OK was 13-0 in pre conference schedule with some good wins. Thus they have a decent RPI.

 

But given the fact we have been a good road team, it is absolutely a game we should have won. We just seemed a step slow today. OK played with much urgency than we did. And when we finally did so, it was too late. 

[Dawg83]

1 hour ago, Bulldogs4 said:

It is a bad loss but in the metrics not so much because OK was 13-0 in pre conference schedule with some good wins. Thus they have a decent RPI.

 

But given the fact we have been a good road team, it is absolutely a game we should have won. We just seemed a step slow today. OK played with much urgency than we did. And when we finally did so, it was too late. 

Like I said, it was obvious which team needed that win more based off the start of the second half.

[Dawg83]

Vandy beats OM in kind of a similar situation. Bubble teams defending their home court in must win situations.

[rebmus]

Neither loss today will hurt OM/MSU's chances of an NCAAT bid. 

A win would have kept them in the 5-6 seed conversation, the loss may push them to a 7-8 seed conversation. 

 

[Dawg83]

19 minutes ago, rebmus said:

Neither loss today will hurt OM/MSU's chances of an NCAAT bid. 

A win would have kept them in the 5-6 seed conversation, the loss may push them to a 7-8 seed conversation. 

 

Nah I don’t think either loss is THAT damaging. Both should stay where they were pretty much. More of a missed opportunity to move up than damaging losses.

 

That said, with State at Bama next and OM at Auburn…. Seems probable that both are going to take another loss next time out. Which will make next Saturdays home games pretty important (State hosting LSU, OM hosting Oklahoma).

[Insideradvantage]

OM best beat Oklahoma or else we will be ending the season on an extended losing streak leaving our fate in the hands of what has historically been a very deceitful NCAA selection committee. 

[Dawg83]

7 hours ago, Insideradvantage said:

OM best beat Oklahoma or else we will be ending the season on an extended losing streak leaving our fate in the hands of what has historically been a very deceitful NCAA selection committee. 

I don’t see anyway OM gets left out. They’re already at 8 SEC wins and have an ELITE win at Bama, and no bad losses. Worst case scenario is they fall to like a 9 seed, IMO.

 

That’s an incredibly tough last four games though, so yeah that OU game is big for OM if they want to stay safely above the 8/9 line. But the flip side of that is I don’t really see it hurting OM to lose to the likes of Auburn, Tennessee, and/or Florida for any of those losses. I think you are over the moon if you 1 of those 3.

[Dawg83]

For State in the last 4, you’d love to go 3-1. At Bama is a likely L, at Arkansas will be tough but is a winnable game and a decent matchup for State. Really need to defend home court against LSU and Texas, both games State will be favored in. I think 2-2 probably keeps you at roughly a 6 seed, which is where I think they are now.

 

I actually think both State and OM would be 6 seeds as of today.

Edited February 23, 2025 by Dawg83

[Insideradvantage]

Either way, OM is going to fall across the finish line here at the end of the season with the potential for 7 straight losses if we don’t beat Oklahoma and depending on what we do in the SEC tournament. We saved face with those last second wins at LSU, which we really didn’t deserve, and lowly South Carolina. That’s not exactly a glowing resume on the back end. I had talked myself into thinking State had found something so that loss to them in Oxford felt a little better. Then State fell on their face against an Oklahoma team that had lost five straight. Maybe it’s all just a matter of the difficulty of this conference like everybody says or maybe we have already seen our best basketball this season. 

[Dawg83]

I still don’t feel terrible about either team. It’s an insanely deep league this year, even at the bottom. South Carolina and LSU are the two worst teams in the league and still in the 80’s in the NET. In most years the worst teams in the league are 150+.

[pancho]

I think as in baseball and football, SEC basketball will be this competitive for years to come. 

[sportsmaniac10]

Pretty disappointed in the loss by Ole Miss. Not because of NCAA tournament implications because Ole Miss is virtually a lock unless they lose out and start getting blown out of the gym. But disappointed from a stand point of you had a week off to prepare for this game and they came out flat with no energy and dug a 19 point hole. There's no reality where that's acceptable for a team with this much talent. The team is just so inconsistent, it's baffling to me. After 27 games, you think we'd have the basics down at this point. But I'm not worried about seeding for the NCAAs because Ole Miss has just as high of odds of grabbing a high seed and getting upset in the first round as they do of coming in as a lower seed and making a Sweet 16 run. Just depends if they decide to show up.

 

Im not gonna say props for fighting back because we are beyond moral victories and shouldn't have been in that position to begin with. Plain and simple we played bad. Woke up. Got back in the game, then choked.  Up 64-62, got 4 straight stops on defense, led to 4 straight possessions where we didn't call a play, didn't set anything up, just went one on one and chunked up a garbage shot. Call a time out. Do something. Don't just sit and shake your head Coach Beard. This unfortunately is a pretty common calling card for this team. 4th time Ole Miss has lost a game like this where they took a lead late, had multiple opportunities to build a lead,  and then just completely self destructed and seemed like they had forgotten how to play basketball (the others were Purdue, @State, Texas A&M). And while the opponents were good and played hard, a lot of it was mental mistakes on Ole Miss. Guards freaking out trying to break the press, getting out of the offense and just playing one on one, or Sean Pedulla dribbling the ball off his foot or throwing an errant pass or just losing control of his dribble. He had 5 turnovers yesterday, at least 3 unforced TOs in the last 8 or so minutes. This shouldn't be happening to a team that is basically all seniors with the exception of Dia.

 

The other thing that I felt like has become apparent is the Ole Miss as a team is physically soft and mentally weak. I feel like that's why State has beaten them both times. I don't think State is more talented. I do think State plays much harder, more physical, and has more fight. People were extremely upset at the blocking call late in the game against Pedulla. I watched it several times. I can see the case for the charge. I can also see the case for the block. Pedulla hesitated and you could see it in his body language and face , was scared to step up and take the charge. He did this weird chopping motion with his feet and it did look like they were still moving because of whatever that chopping of his feet was.  

 

Going to be a very tough finish, but this team seems to at least get amp'd up to play the top teams in the league.  So we shall how it goes. 

[Insideradvantage]

I will watch until the bitter end, but the feeling I had about this OM team after the Kentucky game has been long gone. 

[sportsmaniac10]

Both women's teams get much needed wins. State destroys Texas A and M and Ole Miss escapes Missouri. Ole Miss goes 1-6 from the free throw line in the final 10 seconds to give Missouri a last second chance to tie or win. Would have been a disastrous loss for this team that is still predicted as a 5 seed today in the NCAAs. 

 

Win today guarantees Ole Miss finishes in the top 8. Currently 9-5 in SEC play with a home game against South Caroline and then finish conference play on the road at LSU. So 99% chance that Ole Miss loses both and will finish 9-7 and end up with the #8 seed in the SEC tournament. There will likely be a host of teams at 9-7 but Ole Miss has already lost to all of them so no way they win any tie breakers. First time in the Coach Yo era (at least that I can remember) that Ole Miss will finish worse than the preseason SEC predictions (preseason were predicted 5th). Disappointing after the top 4 finish last year. Ole Miss is likely gonna drop to a 6 seed in the NCAAs by the time selection Sunday rolls around. I'm guessing after finishing the regular season 0-2 and then likely 1-1 in the SEC tournament. 

 

State best case scenario finishes 7-9 in SEC play and grabs the 9 seed for the SEC tournament. They finish at home against Texas and then on the road against Auburn. So 1-1 is what should happen. Currently State is one of the last 4 byes and predicted #9 seed in the NCAAs. They can't afford to lose at Auburn or to whoever they will play in the opening round of the SEC tournament. Otherwise they're looking at a play in game and also praying no mid majors get upset.

 

 

[Dawg83]

Nate Oats is the Jans kryptonite. State getting steamrolled in Tuscaloosa. Not a huge shock but it’s tough to watch. State really needs to win these next two games at home to stay north of the 8/9 line. And may need mote than than to be better than a 7 seed.

[Insideradvantage]

Don’t worry too much about it, State fellas, Auburn will do its part in our stumble to the finish tomorrow night. That one might be just as fugly.