Regular Season won-loss predictions 5a-7a South

[Dubaction]

3 hours ago, Deonte3455 said:

I do get the sentiment with Hattiesburg I really do and it’s warranted. But I stand by what I say. Hattiesburg will lose to Petal and go 5-5 or go undefeated. You have Petal, OG is OG, Laurel anything can happen, George County and then West Jones. 
 

As for Pascagoula I’m just still salty about last year. Nothing would make me more happy than putting them out of the playoffs at their place contrary to the round. 

Even if you beat Petal.. OG and WJ are on a totally different level than them. 

Edited July 26, 2024 by Dubaction

[slicklizard]

15 hours ago, Deonte3455 said:

 

As for Pascagoula I’m just still salty about last year. Nothing would make me more happy than putting them out of the playoffs at their place contrary to the round. 

 

That's what it's all about Deonte. It's the stuff that sticks in your craw that keeps us all coming back.

[Deonte3455]

On 7/26/2024 at 10:59 PM, slicklizard said:

 

That's what it's all about Deonte. It's the stuff that sticks in your craw that keeps us all coming back.

It’s a thrill that naturally renews in sync every year around the same time.

[Deonte3455]

On 7/26/2024 at 10:00 AM, Dubaction said:

Even if you beat Petal.. OG and WJ are on a totally different level than them. 

They are, but my definition of beating Petal is dominating them. I kind of think there’s a big difference between winning the game and beating them down. But Boyles at the helm means something. I’m actually quite on edge about playing them.

[Dubaction]

I just haven’t seen anything from Hattiesburg to think they’d dominate Petal. At least not yet. Petal just had some of their worst years in a while and still beat Hattiesburg and now they have one of the states best coaches back at the helm. That guy literally just went to Ocean Springs last year and won a playoff game he had no business winning. 

[maroontide06]

Since 2007 Hattiesburg is 4-12 against Petal.  If history repeats itself, then Hattiesburg doesn't really have a dog in the fight.  Even with all of that working against them, Petal is still a beatable opponent.  If Hattiesburg loses this game Deonte might be on to something, but if they manage to win this game and win it convincingly, then look out.

[David44]

From a coaching standpoint, Petal may already be 7 points ahead, But if Hattiesburg is as good as advertised, that probably is not enough.

1st real games of the year are sometimes a crapshoot too. Some kids come out too nervous, some come out too pumped up and make

boneheaded mental mistakes.  

[Merlin]

36 minutes ago, David44 said:

From a coaching standpoint, Petal may already be 7 points ahead, But if Hattiesburg is as good as advertised, that probably is not enough.

1st real games of the year are sometimes a crapshoot too. Some kids come out too nervous, some come out too pumped up and make

boneheaded mental mistakes.  

Exactly why I wish west opened up their seasons with south jones and  northeast jones in no particular order.  

[maroontide06]

6 minutes ago, Merlin said:

Exactly why I wish west opened up their seasons with south jones and  northeast jones in no particular order.  

We're on the cupcake free diet down here LOL.

[maroontide06]

Dang, I just realized today is August 1st.  We get to see some football this month.  It's about time.

[Merlin]

17 minutes ago, maroontide06 said:

We're on the cupcake free diet down here LOL.

I know this. I can’t help it west shares a county with those two and they both happen to really suck right now. But with the way the jones county school district does revenue sharing from tickets sold for all home games for all 3 (a portion of tickets sold goes to district which then redistributes it evenly amongst the 3) and the fact any combo of 2 of them could have a zero win season and average 500 fans then host the other school and boom it’s 6,000+, and they are less than 9 miles from each other. Then it’s a given every year they are Gona be on each others schedule. 
 

Also can’t help it that Wayne County has returned to its mid-90’s form. 
 

However I would not be surprised to see Petal and perhaps Oak Grove pop up on wests non -district slate in place of prep and poplarville after this year. 

[maroontide06]

I know y'all can't help it with the other Jones County schools, but if y'all can get Oak Grove on future schedules that would make for a great game regardless.  I also understand your sentiment of going ahead and getting the cupcakes out of the way as well, and you can also work out the early game kinks against the cupcakes.  In our case, we just have to hit the ground running.  Our opening game against Brandon should be a good one.

[Dubaction]

The fact that OG and WJ have yet to play each other is pretty crazy. 

[Merlin]

3 hours ago, maroontide06 said:

I know y'all can't help it with the other Jones County schools, but if y'all can get Oak Grove on future schedules that would make for a great game regardless.  I also understand your sentiment of going ahead and getting the cupcakes out of the way as well, and you can also work out the early game kinks against the cupcakes.  In our case, we just have to hit the ground running.  Our opening game against Brandon should be a good one.

Y’all do have an entire district slate of cupcakes every year to get your young guys some playing time and to rest and heal your starters before the playoffs. 

[maroontide06]

1 minute ago, Merlin said:

Y’all do have an entire district slate of cupcakes every year to get your young guys some playing time and to rest and heal your starters before the playoffs. 

I'm just happy we get Pascagoula at home this year.  I think our home game against George County should be a good one and that will be a good district game.

[Deonte3455]

On 8/1/2024 at 10:25 AM, Merlin said:

I know this. I can’t help it west shares a county with those two and they both happen to really suck right now. But with the way the jones county school district does revenue sharing from tickets sold for all home games for all 3 (a portion of tickets sold goes to district which then redistributes it evenly amongst the 3) and the fact any combo of 2 of them could have a zero win season and average 500 fans then host the other school and boom it’s 6,000+, and they are less than 9 miles from each other. Then it’s a given every year they are Gona be on each others schedule. 
 

Also can’t help it that Wayne County has returned to its mid-90’s form. 
 

However I would not be surprised to see Petal and perhaps Oak Grove pop up on wests non -district slate in place of prep and poplarville after this year. 

I used to disagree about having soft games first time out but over the years I’ve been proven that it’s not always a good recipe.

[Merlin]

12 hours ago, Deonte3455 said:

I used to disagree about having soft games first time out but over the years I’ve been proven that it’s not always a good recipe.

 

Given you guys track record of early season QB injuries I can understand if any Hattiesburg fan has that point of view.

 

Some schools/coaches think soft schedule early lets the team work out some kinks and build confidence in what they are doing is the way.  Some think they must beat the best early to prepare for the playoffs.  
 

Sometimes, traditionally powerful programs that a team has long history with just have a decade of sucking and makes the schedule look weak.  15-20 years ago no one would call wests first 4 games last year/this year weak. Actually go back that far then the weakest team they play currently would be poplarville, followed by I think Hattiesburg. 

Edited August 3, 2024 by Merlin

[maroontide06]

And Poplarville ain’t really no slouch either.  It’s just that classification gap, plus that once in 15-20 year defense that West Jones had last year.  Other than that, Poplarville is a great football team.  They should give West Jones a much better game this year.

[Merlin]

8 hours ago, maroontide06 said:

And Poplarville ain’t really no slouch either.  It’s just that classification gap, plus that once in 15-20 year defense that West Jones had last year.  Other than that, Poplarville is a great football team.  They should give West Jones a much better game this year.

West has had a “better than average” to “great” defenses since 2002.  They had 2 I would consider “average for the classification”, which was 2015-2016 and the offense was horrid those years.  I don’t recall any year they lost more than 7 starters on that side of the ball in that time frame except after 2010, when they lost 21 starters total.  They still finished 8-4 in 2011.  So while it is unknown how the defense will do, there is precedent and hope they can be an “average 6A defense” which could be all they need this year from what I’m hearing about the offense from practice. 

[HailTT]

who exactly do laurel bring bak nd wat is the real take on george County ?

[coastfootballfanman]

2 minutes ago, HailTT said:

who exactly do laurel bring bak nd wat is the real take on george County ?

George is expected to be solid offensively. Defense lost some players up front and in the secondary but do return enough to be solid. Offensive Line is still not very good from what I saw in the spring. Deuce Knight is the real deal and he has good receivers. They will be a big threat in my opinion. 

[Merlin]

3 hours ago, HailTT said:

who exactly do laurel bring bak nd wat is the real take on george County ?

Laurel didn’t bring back as much as they would have you think. They did bring back a great WR.  They were 2 deep with 6 foot 1+ 260 pounders for the offensive line. So even though they lost most of the starters, they won’t lose any size.  They did bring vs k the best o lineman. But other than him they were just big last year, not exactly blowing d lines off the line. Kinda soft actually.  Lost their qb and rb. However they will have you believe the 9th grade transfer from south jones is a d1 kid.  On defense they bring vs k the lb’s, the d line like the o line, they had so many big kids you will not notice a difference in size but they were also not as strong as their size would have you believe.  Their 6 losses last year were not for no reason. They were fortunate to beat stone county. Actually a lot of people already forgot they were 4-6 going into the last week of the season and a bunch of them were calling for their coaches head.  If they get a lead by half they will get some swagger. But if they are getting punched in the face they tend to fall apart as the game goes on. I actually think they will drop 4-5 this year. 

 

 

[maroontide06]

6 hours ago, Merlin said:

Laurel didn’t bring back as much as they would have you think. They did bring back a great WR.  They were 2 deep with 6 foot 1+ 260 pounders for the offensive line. So even though they lost most of the starters, they won’t lose any size.  They did bring vs k the best o lineman. But other than him they were just big last year, not exactly blowing d lines off the line. Kinda soft actually.  Lost their qb and rb. However they will have you believe the 9th grade transfer from south jones is a d1 kid.  On defense they bring vs k the lb’s, the d line like the o line, they had so many big kids you will not notice a difference in size but they were also not as strong as their size would have you believe.  Their 6 losses last year were not for no reason. They were fortunate to beat stone county. Actually a lot of people already forgot they were 4-6 going into the last week of the season and a bunch of them were calling for their coaches head.  If they get a lead by half they will get some swagger. But if they are getting punched in the face they tend to fall apart as the game goes on. I actually think they will drop 4-5 this year. 

 

 

Do you think anybody else in 5A South has a chance to be better than Laurel?  I know you've got the smokescreen in Brookhaven, but is that going to be the only threat in 5A?  I think you just need to find someone that's halfway decent and if you do that, then you've got someone who can send Laurel back to the abyss.

[s1nglewing]

24 minutes ago, maroontide06 said:

Do you think anybody else in 5A South has a chance to be better than Laurel?  I know you've got the smokescreen in Brookhaven, but is that going to be the only threat in 5A?  I think you just need to find someone that's halfway decent and if you do that, then you've got someone who can send Laurel back to the abyss.

Earnest coached teams don't play defense.  If they can't out-score their opponents,  they lose.  It's been a consistent factor everywhere he's been.

[coastfootballfanman]

51 minutes ago, maroontide06 said:

Do you think anybody else in 5A South has a chance to be better than Laurel?  I know you've got the smokescreen in Brookhaven, but is that going to be the only threat in 5A?  I think you just need to find someone that's halfway decent and if you do that, then you've got someone who can send Laurel back to the abyss.

Gautier may still be your best chance, albeit not great. They lost a lot defensively. They do have probably the best running back in 5A south with Solomon Baggett. He is a special player. I got to see them in the spring game. Offense will be pretty good. Athletic quarterback who can extend plays. Not an elite thrower, but throws it well enough. #8 is a speedy wide receiver with great hands. They do not appear to have the overall depth of weapons at wide receiver that they have had in the past, but will still be good. Defensively they had some decent looking kids but nothing compared to what they have had the last few years. Overall, I do not have a ton of confidence in 4-5A to be any tougher than it was last year honestly. I obviously do not know much about Wayne County (although Slick is not very enthused on the upcoming season so that leads me to believe they will not be good). A Brookhaven or Florence may be the best chance. North Pike was pretty good a few years back but struggled last year. It is a crapshoot right now in all of 5A overall. You have West Point, a big, big drop, and then everyone else it appears.