College Basketball

[Dawg83]

12 minutes ago, NoWammies said:

So Memphis isn’t a signature win? Pretty sure they’re in the top ten this week. Doesn’t State also have a signature loss to Southern since you wanna compare the two anytime something is mentioned of Ole Miss. 

Memphis is a very good win but they’re only 39 in the NET, so it’s just a Q2 win. If you go by the quadrant system which the committee does, Ole Miss’s best win is actually the road win at UCF.

 

Yes, the Southern loss is a clear stinker for State and probably anchoring them down a bit in the metrics. Likely the difference in a whole seed line or two for them. Although weirdly Southern’s NET right now isn’t nearly as bad as the rest of the SWAC. That could course correct though and be a problem for State down the road.

[Dawg83]

8 minutes ago, NoWammies said:

Didn’t y’all also lose to a Georgia Tech team that’s currently ranked #14 in the ACC?

Only a Q2 loss right now since it was a true road game, but yeah they’re not very good and State needs them to win some games.

 

Another thing that’s unclear on State is how those two nonconference L’s will be viewed since Tolu Smith did not play in either game. That’s something that sometimes is and sometimes isn’t considered when the committee evaluates teams. It’s the NCAA so surprise surprise there’s not been much consistency with that.

[Dawg83]

I reference State and Ole Miss simultaneously often because this is mixed board with fans of both schools and it’s only natural to compare in-state rivals. Especially when the teams appear to be at least somewhat similar this year. Maybe even extremely similar when it’s all said and done.

[MSTSatchmo]

Personally I want to hear more about Vandy and Missouri *** 

[NoWammies]

41 minutes ago, Dawg83 said:

I reference State and Ole Miss simultaneously often because this is mixed board with fans of both schools and it’s only natural to compare in-state rivals. Especially when the teams appear to be at least somewhat similar this year. Maybe even extremely similar when it’s all said and done.

So next time y’all talk up a win over let’s say a Rutgers that’s last place in the Big Ten and a net of 94 I should comment lowkey downplaying calling them a bad team like you do instead of just scrolling by ignoring it? How many Ole Miss fans on here you see compare the two when y’all talk about State? I rarely see one. 

[Dawg83]

4 minutes ago, NoWammies said:

So next time y’all talk up a win over let’s say a Rutgers that’s last place in the Big Ten and a net of 94 I should comment lowkey downplaying it instead of just scrolling by ignoring it? 

Do whatever you want, man. I don’t care. There’s nuanced ways to discuss teams. Ole Miss is 15-1 but has played a not great schedule. State has one extremely good win and several other solid ones, but also four losses including two head scratchers. We all got warts, here.

[NoWammies]

Y’all have the same amount of Quad 1 wins as Ole Miss and only 1 more Quad 2 win. 

[Dawg83]

15 minutes ago, NoWammies said:

Y’all have the same amount of Quad 1 wins as Ole Miss and only 1 more Quad 2 win. 

Like I said, bracket experts seem to view State and OM very similarly right now and it makes plenty of sense why. State has by far the best win between the two but also the worst loss(es). OM has taken care of business in games they should win but the jury is still out otherwise, and the schedule ramps up soon so we will find out before long.

 

15 SEC games left so too early to judge anyone definitively. What’s a Q1 win now may not be in a month, what’s a Q2 win may rise to Q1 or fall to Q3 by year end, etc. The goal for both teams is probably 9-9 or better in the league. Get there and you’re in good shape for the tourney.

Edited January 15, 2024 by Dawg83

[Dawg83]

Stealing this from another board, but KenPom has the following probabilities for SEC teams to finish with a winning conference record (10-8 or better):

 

99.9%- Auburn
99.8%- Alabama
98.0%- Tennessee
84.5%- Kentucky
60.3%- Mississippi State
——-
47.8%- Florida
43.9%- Texas A&M
39.4%- S Carolina
31.7%- Ole Miss
20.0%- Georgia
13.9%- LSU
0.6%- Arkansas
0.1%- Missouri
0.0%- Vanderbilt

Edited January 15, 2024 by Dawg83

[NoWammies]

KenPom is a good system to use. It only has 3 teams ranked ahead of Ole Miss that Ole Miss has already defeated. 

[Dawg83]

9 minutes ago, NoWammies said:

KenPom is a good system to use. It only has 3 teams ranked ahead of Ole Miss that Ole Miss has already defeated. 

Analytics don’t tell the whole story but that one in particular has been around a long time and is usually pretty reliable. Though I’m sure the data is still catching up on some teams since we are still kinda early in the season.

[NoWammies]

It has Florida 30 spots ahead of Ole Miss so yea I’ll pass basing my opinion off of it. 

[sportsmaniac10]

Like others have said, many of the ranking systems are still filtering out and need more results to be more accurate. Ole Miss is not getting love in the NET primarily due to its margin of victory and also some due to strength of schedule. Theyre #12 in the RPI...too high. So there's gonna be a flaw regardless of what you look at and the Committee is aware of this. It's way too early to be worried about this anyways. Doesn't matter until the final rankings come out before Selection Sunday and lots will change by then. Ole Miss and State just need to worry about winning games. Win games and the numbers will shift to your favor. 

 

Ole Miss resume has Memphis on it and going undefeated in non conference play (which isn't easy, only like 5-6 teams in the country did it right?) but it overall was a very ho hum schedule. lets not kid ourselves, no one is saying Ole Miss has earned a top 4 seed. State's schedule was also fairly meh. there's some wins over power 5 teams but none of them are powerhouse programs or teams that are locks to make the tournament and then you add the head scratching losses to southern and Georgia tech. Both teams have work to do in SEC play.  

 

As an Ole Miss fan, I'm just happy we got some hope and something to talk about this year. Last year was miserable. It's pretty remarkable what Beard has done so far. But very clear that Ole Miss has some significant weaknesses in the paint that will limit how successful this team is. I think a lot of us are holding our breath and waiting to see if Murrell and Brakefield can continue this newfound consistency. For 3 years now, all we've seen is Murrell show tons of promise in the non conference and then disappear for months at a time and unable to find any consistency in SEC play. Similar for Brakefiield. Would be nice to see both of these guys finally live up to the hype. 

 

I would give Ole Miss the nod to having the easier path to 9-9 at this point. The opponents that Ole Miss has home and away games with this season just a tad bit more winnable than States opponents. Ole Miss has Tx A&M, Auburn, S. Carolina, and Mizzou. State has S. Carolina, Auburn, Bama, Kentucky. Also throw in a trip to Gainesville for State. Guess time will tell. 

 

 

[Dawg83]

7 hours ago, sportsmaniac10 said:

Like others have said, many of the ranking systems are still filtering out and need more results to be more accurate. Ole Miss is not getting love in the NET primarily due to its margin of victory and also some due to strength of schedule. Theyre #12 in the RPI...too high. So there's gonna be a flaw regardless of what you look at and the Committee is aware of this. It's way too early to be worried about this anyways. Doesn't matter until the final rankings come out before Selection Sunday and lots will change by then. Ole Miss and State just need to worry about winning games. Win games and the numbers will shift to your favor. 

 

Ole Miss resume has Memphis on it and going undefeated in non conference play (which isn't easy, only like 5-6 teams in the country did it right?) but it overall was a very ho hum schedule. lets not kid ourselves, no one is saying Ole Miss has earned a top 4 seed. State's schedule was also fairly meh. there's some wins over power 5 teams but none of them are powerhouse programs or teams that are locks to make the tournament and then you add the head scratching losses to southern and Georgia tech. Both teams have work to do in SEC play.  

 

As an Ole Miss fan, I'm just happy we got some hope and something to talk about this year. Last year was miserable. It's pretty remarkable what Beard has done so far. But very clear that Ole Miss has some significant weaknesses in the paint that will limit how successful this team is. I think a lot of us are holding our breath and waiting to see if Murrell and Brakefield can continue this newfound consistency. For 3 years now, all we've seen is Murrell show tons of promise in the non conference and then disappear for months at a time and unable to find any consistency in SEC play. Similar for Brakefiield. Would be nice to see both of these guys finally live up to the hype. 

 

I would give Ole Miss the nod to having the easier path to 9-9 at this point. The opponents that Ole Miss has home and away games with this season just a tad bit more winnable than States opponents. Ole Miss has Tx A&M, Auburn, S. Carolina, and Mizzou. State has S. Carolina, Auburn, Bama, Kentucky. Also throw in a trip to Gainesville for State. Guess time will tell. 

 

 

I agree that OM’s SEC schedule is a little bit more favorable.

[Dawg83]

State having to play Bama, Auburn, and Kentucky twice is a really tough break. And I feel like they probably can’t go o-fer in those games.

[Dawg83]

Lunardi’s latest bracket has Ole Miss as an 8 seed and State as a 9 seed, for whatever that’s worth. I’m sure both would love to clear the 8-9 seed line as to not be matched up with a 1 seed early.

[Dawg83]

Also, State on the verge of selling out the Vandy game Saturday which, combined with the Auburn game next week that’s already sold out, would make three in a row. I’m not sure State has had three total sellouts since Rick Stansbury was the coach. Capacity did shrink this year with the Hump renovations, but still very good news.

[Dawg83]

State +6.5 and Ole Miss +3.5 both trying to win as road underdogs tonight. Don’t think a loss would hurt either very much, but a win be a nice resume booster, particularly for State just because Kentucky is what it is. LSU isn’t great, but they seem to be better than expected, and it’s a Top 100 team in a true road game for OM.

Edited January 17, 2024 by Dawg83

[MSTSatchmo]

1 hour ago, Dawg83 said:

State +6.5 and Ole Miss +3.5 both trying to win as road underdogs tonight. Don’t think a loss would hurt either very much, but a win be a nice resume booster, particularly for State just because Kentucky is what it is. LSU isn’t great, but they seem to be better than expected, and it’s a Top 100 team in a true road game for OM.

Im surprised OM is the underdog.  

[Dawg83]

Total mismatch in Lexington tonight. State just getting whooped. Easy to say Saturday against Vandy is beyond must win.

Edited January 18, 2024 by Dawg83

[Dawg83]

Kentucky is really good, FWIW. Feels like Cal’s best team in a few years, or at least the most talented one.

[MSTSatchmo]

UK is shooting 51% from the field.  8-10 from 3.  That’s against a good defensive team.  
 

***That was FTs not 3’s in the first half.  I got some snow in my eyes. 

Edited January 18, 2024 by MSTSatchmo

[Dawg83]

Going to be some really good games this year between the top four in the league (Auburn, Bama, Tennessee, Kentucky, in no particular order)

[Dawg83]

LSU taking care of business tonight too. This is a stereotypical “it’s tough on the road” night for State and Ole Miss.

 

A Chris Jans team giving up 90 isn’t something you see often. Kentucky put on a clinic offensively.

 

Haven’t caught much of Ole Miss-LSU, but looks like LSU had a hot start in the second half and OM was having to play catchup from that point on.

[rebmus]

30 minutes ago, Dawg83 said:

 

 

Haven’t caught much of Ole Miss-LSU, but looks like LSU had a hot start in the second half and OM was having to play catchup from that point on.

Yep. LSU was dropping shots while Ole Miss was missing everything for a bit in the second half. Ole Miss put up a very good effort the last few minutes, just too much of a hole created earlier to get out of.