CFB Week 11 Thread

[Dawg83]

Two big games in Starkville and Oxford this weekend, but I won’t lie, don’t feel tremendous about either home team’s chances.

 

Ole Miss-Bama was expected to be the SEC West title game until LSU threw a wrench into those plans. There’s still technically a path for both, but it would require a lot to go right. I kinda think LSU wins out and the result of this game is essentially meaningless in the West race.

 

It’s just really hard to pick Bama to lose two in a row when it’s something Saban basically never does. I also don’t think Ole Miss has the defensive pieces necessary to stop Bama consistently. OM is a fast starting team so I could see that continuing here, but I eventually think Bama overtakes them and wins by 10+. My final score guess would be something like 42-31. If Ole Miss does win this game then you can go ahead and commission the Kiffin statue.

 

State-Georgia is one that I’ve probably been overthinking this whole time when the result is likely obvious. If State continues to play at the level they’ve played the last month, Georgia is going to win by 3-4 TD’s and there won’t be much to say about this one.

 

Here is what I’ll say though… I’ve had a weird feeling about this game being close going all the way back to the off-season. Maybe I’m too influenced by State’s strong showing in Athens in 2020 with a super short handed team. Maybe I’m prescribing too much to the Mike Leach chaos theory thing. But we’ve seen some WTF performances from State in a bad way this year and feel like they may be due a good WTF performance. There is something about this game that also reminds me a little bit of Bama coming to Starkville in 2017. Given that UGA just came off a huge win and has been prone to no show at times this year, I don’t think it’s out of the question that this is a close game late. I’m not going to pick State to win because I don’t think there’s a single position on the field they are better than Georgia. But I think I like State to cover. I like UGA winning something like 24-14.

 

LSU is only a three point favorite in Fayetteville. I do think that’s a tricky game but I can’t trust Arkansas at all right now. Close game but I expect LSU to win, and that combined with an OM loss would wrap up the West.

 

Not a ton of huge games nationally, biggest one is probably TCU at Texas. The Frogs have played with fire at times and I kinda think their undefeated season may end here. But if TCU wins, look out. The coaching job Sonny Dykes has done in Year 1 is unreal, people forget that they were under .500 in two of the last three years.

Edited November 9, 2022 by Dawg83

[rebmus]

Bama, UGA, LSU, and Texas wins is my best guestimate. 

 

I feel like I really SHOULD pick TCU, but I feel like Texas pulls off that win. 

 

[Bulldogs4]

In my growing up years, I remember hearing that it was difficult if not impossible for a team to play three straight high level games. Georgia has had two straight emotional, high level games (WLOCP and Tennessee). They passed both with A+ grades. The old three game analogy seems to have faded away these days (at least you don’t hear much about it). Talent wise , Georgia beats State probably 38-21 on any given Saturday. I agree with 83 that this game could be closer than the odds makers are predicting (16-17 point spread). Certainly I would not bet either way. State has not really played a full four quarter game yet (A&M and Arky were good wins but neither of those teams are very good this year). If the State team that played the first quarter and half against Auburn shows up for UGA, we will have ourselves a game. Can Georgia maintain the level of play of the last two Saturday’s a third time in a row? 
As 83 noted, until State proves we can beat a top flight team, you have take UGA here.

 

I like Ole Miss to beat Bama. I know this Bama team is only 6 points away from being undefeated. But they are also only 6 points away from being 5-4. Think about that.

Bama is coming off a very difficult and draining loss. Ole Miss had a week off to regroup. 
I like Ole Miss to win a thriller 38-35. 
 

LSU tries to blow it at Arkansas but manages to eek a win 24-23. 
 

TCU comes through again with a victory over UT-Austin 28-24. Just want some new blood in the playoff. 

[Dawg83]

Sounds like a huge UGA contingent will be in Starkville tomorrow. First time they’ve played here since 2010 (laughable considering State has been to Athens three times since).

 

I’m pretty sure this is State’s first sellout since the 2018 Florida game. Which is a little sad considering that almost every single State home game from mid 2009 thru 2015 was a sellout.

[MSTSatchmo]

I think the State/UGA game looks about like the State/Bama game.   Defense plays pretty good, but gets worn down by the offense 3 and outs.  
 

I’ll still take Auburn even though there’s a flu outbreak on the team supposedly. 
 

LSU wins close in Fayetteville.  
 

UTenn’s offense goes wild on Missouri. 
 

UK over Vandy

 

UF over SCarolina.  
 

Texas ends TCU’s run. 
 

I still think Bama is better than OM on both sides of the ball, they should be able to run all day against OM’s defense.  Something tells me that OM will pull the upset though. 28-24 

[maroontide06]

If OM beats Bama I'll be pleasantly surprised, but it could happen though.  If Auburn beats aTm, then what's gonna happen in College Station?  They obviously can't afford to get rid of Jimbo, but will there be a complete coaching staff overhaul from top to bottom with Jimbo being the only leftover?

[Bulldogs4]

Auburn beats A&M. Auburn under Cadillac Is having fun playing again. A&M looks like the kid sucking on a lemon. I think they just want to get the season over with. 
 

Tennessee beats Missouri but it is not a shellacking. 
 

South Carolina beats Florida…well just because…heck I don’t know….

 

83, the SEC football schedulers are a bunch of morons. It has been 12 years since Georgia came to State, we have not been to Gainesville since 2010 (not that I ever care I go back there) . Had a great time in 2010 with the victory but the campus and town are blah. And with expansion, the 2025 visit may get moved back some more. 
 

Georgia fans generally travel well plus like you said, a lot of fans enjoy traveling to the various campuses. Attendance has taken a hit for sure. Glad to see this is a hard sellout. 
I know we have not had SO’s this year but all of the crowds have been 50K+ with the exception of BG. So I think we are trending up after getting zapped like everyone else during COVID along with the general disinterest in CFB around the country. 

[Dawg83]

State’s attendance has definitely been improved this year. 2021 was a disaster. You had multiple Saturday night kickoffs with under 50K announced attendance. And this wasn’t just games against nobodies, it was NC State and Kentucky.

 

Even so, we have lower level West side seats and there hasn’t been anyone in the seats to my right all season, and the seats to my left have only been occupied about half the time. It’s improved attendance but still among the worst in the SEC this year.

Edited November 11, 2022 by Dawg83

[Bulldogs4]

WOW did you all see the stadium in Fayetteville.

LSWHO and R-Kansas may not be a sure W for the Red Stick Bengals.

 

[Bulldogs4]

Vandy breaks through with a 24-21 win over Kentucky. Kentucky is definitely a WTF team this year. Won @ Florida beat State @ Home but loses to USC and Vandy at home 

[MSTSatchmo]

I know the game is just two series in, but Bryce Young still doesn’t look right throwing the ball.  

[MSTSatchmo]

OMs offense looks really good. Almost 200 yards to 20 after the 1st.  They’ve got Bama’s defense looking really confused.  

[Bulldogs4]

Game has settled down some. Looks like it will come down to the wire. 

[Bulldogs4]

and uconn blew Freeze’s audition for a SEC gig today.

36-33. 
 

uconn? 
 

The Vanderbilt of New England…well UMASS is worse but you all get the picture. 

[MSTSatchmo]

OMs defense has been really impressive.   After LSU and Auburn rushed for over 250 each, I can’t believe Bama has under 100 through 3.  

[Dawg83]

Bama pulls it out in Oxford. Closer game than I expected, OM had a real chance and just fell short.

 

State-UGA is about what you’d expect. State was competitive for a half but UGA is far better. Officiating in this game has been atrocious, and some of the calls/no calls have been back breaking ones.

Edited November 13, 2022 by Dawg83

[Bulldogs4]

Well Georgia was going to win anyway but they certainly got some assistance along the way to make it easier. 
This coming from someone who defends the officiating for the most part. 

[MSTSatchmo]

WOW.  Tied at 34.  Oregon goes for it on 4th and 1 at their own 34.   
 

 

[Dawg83]

I didn’t have high expectations for State-UGA, but the trend of the Air Raid regressing definitely continued tonight and is extremely troubling long term.

 

You hate to say it but it’s kinda just how it is, the Egg Bowl will tell the tale of this season. Win it and you’ve salvaged a pretty good year, but a loss would pretty clearly make this season a bust, especially now that we’ve seen that State’s big wins this year were over fraudulent teams.

[Bulldogs4]

Back in the summer when everyone was looking at our schedule, I think most concluded that 7-8 wins was about what this team would do. 
Losses to Bama, Georgia 

 

Toss up games 

A&M, UK, LSU, Arky, OM

 

Wins-Auburn and the OOC games 

 

And it has played out just about like that. 

2-2 in the toss up games with one to play. 

We will see how it ends. 

[MSTSatchmo]

18 minutes ago, Dawg83 said:

I didn’t have high expectations for State-UGA, but the trend of the Air Raid regressing definitely continued tonight and is extremely troubling long term.

 

You hate to say it but it’s kinda just how it is, the Egg Bowl will tell the tale of this season. Win it and you’ve salvaged a pretty good year, but a loss would pretty clearly make this season a bust, especially now that we’ve seen that State’s big wins this year were over fraudulent teams.

The question always was can the Air Raid work in the SEC.   It’s not really a yes or no question.  
It can work and does work.   However, at a mid to lower tier program in the SEC it will only get you 6-8 wins tops.  

State was never going to beat Bama or UGA, luckily Arkansas had a backup QB, Auburn is down, and A&M has an inept coaching staff.  

[Bulldogs4]

It can and has worked. I thought we did some decent things tonight but we are still missing a few pieces for the air raid to work at a higher level. Rogers is a good QB but if he was just a bit mobile he could really be good. Not run like Fitz or Dak but be able to run just a few times a game to keep the defense honest. 
I think we have a decent group of WR’s but not an elite one or two that could stretch the field deep or take a quick out and go for a big gain. 
A couple of crucial drops hurt tonight. 
As I noted we were long shots to win the game but we had some opportunities to make it closer, aside from the calls/non calls in the first half. 

[MSTSatchmo]

Has Leach ever had or used a mobile QB?  

[Dawg83]

My concern is that this version of the Air Raid may be a relic of the 90’s and 2000’s, and Leach’s unwillingness to adapt like many of his understudies have may eventually prove to be his downfall.

 

15-20 years ago the Air Raid was considered one of the more creative offenses out there. There is absolutely nothing innovative about this offense as State runs it in 2022. And the offense seems to have taken steps backwards from where it was last year and earlier this year.

 

That said, a win on Thanksgiving night would certainly change the conversation. But that feels like it’s going to be an uphill climb on the road.

[s1nglewing]

7 hours ago, Bulldogs4 said:

Game has settled down some. Looks like it will come down to the wire. 

Ole Miss blew that game at the end with four attempted passes in their last four offensive plays after gouging Alabama with the run in the same drive. Plenty of timeouts left and threw, or attempted to throw (and succeeded), the game away.