College Baseball Season

[Bulldogs4]

Yes that is true but I was not on the bandwagon that State was going to be a top ten team this year. I thought we would struggle early but get better as the season progressed. And at least be a Regional team. I had no thoughts that we would be struggling to just make the SECT. 
 

I tried to caution my friends that this was a new year and not to expect the same results from recent years. 
 

I do think recruiting has been fine. There is plenty of talent but it has not gelled. 
Our defense has been good.

But the two other important aspects of baseball are timely hitting and pitching and we have failed in both of those areas badly. Injuries have affected that but other pitchers have just not developed like you think would. 
 

 

Ole Miss is definitely a mystery. That team is much better than their record or seemingly they should be. 

[Dawg83]

Yeah you definitely can’t point to just one thing with State. When they hit the ball, the pitching is bad. When they pitch it well, they can’t hit. Hasn’t lined up for them all year.

[rebmus]

6 hours ago, Bulldogs4 said:

Yes that is true but I was not on the bandwagon that State was going to be a top ten team this year. I thought we would struggle early but get better as the season progressed. And at least be a Regional team. I had no thoughts that we would be struggling to just make the SECT. 

Same here as an OM fan. 

OM returned many hitters but lost a TON of great pitching from last year. 

I thought regional host if things went well or a 2 (maybe 3) seed in a regional if the pitching struggled. 

I wasn't expecting a national seed before the season, also didn't expect no tourney bid at all either. 

 

[rebmus]

Probably too little too late, but KY took 2 of 3 vs UT this weekend... first series loss for UT. 

 

[rebmus]

Too little too late for OM also, but picked up a series win 8-1 over Mizzou tonight. 

After burning 4 arms last night, 2 arms picked up this win. 

 

We'll see if OM can get a sweep tomorrow to get barely back in the mix. 

[Bulldogs4]

This is has become very simple now. Season will end May 21st and then we will have a long offseason to prepare for next season.

 

Disappointing though I know our players are playing with great effort. But it is not happening this year. Plain and simple. As I have said recently “we are who we are right now” 

And that is a team that is average at best and mediocre at worst. 

[rebmus]

MSU and OM are so much alike in baseball this year. Every time they get our hopes up the bed crapping follows. 

 

We're both 9-14 in the SEC now, I expected better from both teams. 

[Dawg83]

At this point you’re basically just playing to see who is bad enough to miss Hoover.

 

Mizzou is probably one of the two teams that will miss out. Beyond that who knows. State, OM, and SC are all sitting at 9-14, Kentucky is 9-15. SC and Kentucky play next weekend in what will assuredly be an important series. State and OM both have a really tough last two weeks, State’s probably being a little rougher.

 

Every game is important for Hoover purposes. State needs to avoid a sweep tomorrow, Ole Miss needs to finish one off. My guess is it all comes down to the last day or two of the season. But it’s incredibly unlikely that either of these teams are going to the NCAAT.

[Dawg83]

Ole Miss on the verge of sweeping Mizzou, State about to get swept by Florida. OM has passed State in the SEC standings.

 

State is tied currently tied with Kentucky for the last spot in Hoover and closes with A&M and Tennessee. Can’t exactly love your chances here. They’re 1-6 since winning the series in Oxford, and all of those games are against sub .500 SEC teams. Just a brutal year following up an all time great one. Very shocking to say the least.

 

You knew the 2016-2021 run of success would come to an end eventually, can’t say I saw it crashing so abruptly though. State probably won’t be down for long, and I still firmly believe Lemonis is one of the better coaches in the country. But this has been a Murphy’s Law kind of season for sure.

[rebmus]

Mizzou is most likely the worst team in the SEC, but still... OM picking up a sweep was surprising. 

Considering it was Mizzou, I'm far from ready to think OM has finally figured things out. 

 

Florida is a solid team, but I sure didn't see them sweeping in Starkville. 

 

OM took a step forward for an outside shot for postseason, MSU took a step back. Huge hill ahead for both, slightly bigger hill for MSU but huge hill for both. 

 

Southern Miss made it up to #4 a couple of weeks ago and has now lost 2 weekend series in a row. USM is still in good shape for a host seed IF they win the next two weekends, but the NS talk is a huge hill for them now. Still the premier team of the three. 

 

 

[Bulldogs4]

Excellent weekend for Ole Miss.

End of the road for State still appears to be May 21st.

Danger signals for USM. Still a very good team but the last two weekends have been bad. Losing a game is okay but to lose two weekend series in a row is not a good look. I know they have some injuries but they were sitting pretty for a NS and now hosting could be be in jeopardy if they don’t right the ship over the next couple of weekends. 

[rebmus]

RPI is the big indicator of who gets in, who hosts, and who is a NS. 

I googled RPI and came across Warren Nolen's RPI which seems to be respected. 

 

USM is #15. Still in a host spot but well out of NS spot. 

OM is #56. Borderline tourney team I suppose by RPI, I'm surprised this high. A lot of work to do still the last 2 weeks. 

MSU is @102.  MSU and OM are pretty even with records with a slight edge to OM while MSU holds the H2H record (technically 2-2 but MSU took 2 of 3 in Oxford while OM won the 4th game in Pearl)... I would have guessed both about the same. 

 

Maybe all 3 teams can find themselves in the NCAAT, I'd only bet on USM right now. I wouldn't put much money on USM since they're stinking it up the past 2 weeks also. 

 

 

 

[Dawg83]

State’s at large chances are pretty much dead unless they do something absurd against A&M and Tennessee. I’m talking 5-1 against maybe the two best teams in the SEC right now. Seems basically impossible. Your RPI is now in the 100’s with two weeks + Hoover left, your chances of getting an at-large spot are like .001%.
 

Get in Hoover is the first objective, and that’s far from a given. Then you hope for a miracle run as the 11 or 12 seed once you get there. It’s all INCREDIBLY unlikely but I guess you might as well try. Lol.

 

If you made me call it today I don’t think State qualifies for Hoover. Too difficult of a remaining schedule and the tiebreaker with Kentucky would require State to beat Tennessee at least twice. I just don’t see it.

 

Ole Miss is probably still out as of now but if you win 3 or 4 of your last 6 and then a couple of games in Hoover then I bet they sneak in as a 3 seed.

 

USM needs to be really careful, they are getting real close to blowing what should’ve been a slam dunk host spot.

Edited May 10, 2022 by Dawg83

[rebmus]

8 hours ago, Dawg83 said:

 

USM needs to be really careful, they are getting real close to blowing what should’ve been a slam dunk host spot.

Midweek games typically don't mean much, tomorrow's game between OM and USM have more on the line than usual. 

USM is currently on the right side of being a host, but can fall out of that spot with a few losses. Not a bad spot to be in at all, USM can help solidify a host spot with a win. 

OM is currently fighting an uphill battle to make the NCAAT. A win at USM would sure help the RPI and decisions on tourney selections. 

 

The "magic number" is typically 14 SEC wins to get an NCAAT bid, which means MSU probably needs to win 5 of 6 from @ A&M and hosting Tennessee. Ouch, that's a huge hill to climb. 

 

Ole Miss's chances aren't great also, needing 4 of 6 from @ LSU and hosting A&M. 

 

[Bulldogs4]

I gonna keep beating a dead horse because that is what we are now. Well maybe a dead diamond dawg. 
 

Actually I should not demean a horse after all “Rich Strike” was the least likely to have won the Derby but he did. Maybe I can just follow horse racing for a while going forward. 
 

The losses just keep adding up and it now appears that we will finish below .500 for the season. Samford has a good club but we were trailing them 8 To Zip in the third inning. 
 

Crucial game for OM and USM tomorrow in Hattiesburg. Absolutely a must win for both squads for different reasons. USM needs win to remain in the mix to host a regional.

OM desperately needs a win to stay in consideration for a NCAAT bid
 

 

Good Luck to both squads.

Edited May 11, 2022 by Bulldogs4

[rebmus]

Ole Miss beat USM 4-1 tonight to keep some hope alive. 

 

[Bulldogs4]

More than hope. Ole Miss is in very good shape to make a run over the next three weeks. Obviously they need to win 4/6 the next two weekends and then a couple of games in the tournament. Still a lot of work to do but it is very doable. 
 

USM’s hosting opportunity is gone barring a run starting this weekend. They have hurt themselves badly losing 5 of the last 7 games. Still safely in the tournament but very disappointing to go from a National seed to not hosting in less than two weeks. 

[Dawg83]

If you’ve seen State play once this year you’ve pretty much seen all of their games. Dropped the first game to A&M in pretty much the exact way you’d expect them to. Promising at times, then walks kill them and they’re snake bit with the bases loaded. But Kentucky and Bama lost so still a reasonable path to Hoover as of now.

 

Ole Miss and LSU postponed for the night with OM leading early.

[Bulldogs4]

Yep. Give up 4 runs in the 7th inning on one hit. Kind of sums it up in a nutshell. 

[Bulldogs4]

We are like Paul Simon’s “Fifty Ways to leave your Lover” song with the lyrics being “50 ways to lose a baseball game” or currently this year “25 ways to lose a baseball game “

[rebmus]

Ole Miss picks up the first 2 at LSU, another nice road series win. This puts OM at 12-14 in SEC play. 1 more win in the last 4 will lock OM into the SEC tourney, 2 more will likely lock OM into the NCAAT. 

OM has really struggled at home, so getting swept by A&M next weekend should surprise nobody... 

 

[Dawg83]

Can’t help but wonder if this is trending toward Bianco doing enough to keep his job. Where are OM fans with that, I wonder? Is it still Omaha or bust in terms of making a change?

 

Having said that, I would be pissed if I’m the host team that gets Ole Miss as my 2 or 3 seed. They’re not a slam dunk to get in yet, but it’s definitely trending positively for OM. They’ve totally reversed their fortunes since that series loss to State. Funny how that works out, State is 1-9 since leaving Oxford on a high note while OM is 8-2 in that same timeframe.

[rebmus]

Yep 83, most everyone (raises hand also) felt MSU was headed in the right direction while Ole Miss was all but done after that MSU series win in Oxford. 

On Bianco, just a guess on my part: 

75% chance he's gone if no NCAAT. 

25% chance he's gone if wins a regional. 

0% chance he's gone if Ole Miss goes to Omaha. 

 

Who knows, Bianco burned a ton of good will when he chased the LSU job last year. Had he not done that, I'd say 0% chance he's gone for just making the NCAAT. 

 

[rebmus]

Kentucky and MSU are both 0-2 this weekend while Missouri is 1-1 so far. 

I wouldn't bet on it, but it could end up with KY/MSU both out of the SECT and Mizzou gets in. 

 

UT won the SEC regular season yesterday and has little to play for right now. Even if UT loses out, they're a NS lock. 

Will UT yank pitchers early next weekend to let them rest? MSU may well have a better than normal chance next weekend? 

[Bulldogs4]

As of now, I don’t see State winning another game (even N. Bama will probably beat us) the rest of the year. The team is playing hard, defense is still impeccable, but pitching is horrific, hitting is wildly inconsistent and nonexistent with men on base. 
 

UT will beat us with their back-ups next week. 
 

Ole Miss is playing well. USM finally stopped the bleeding but they have still lost 6 of their last 9 games. Hosting is out the window at this point but they will be a decent two seed somewhere else. Unless they go on a great roll and win out. That is about the only path to host now.