CFB Week 13 Thread

[Dawg83]

Ole Miss -10.5 at Florida - the final realistic hurdle for OM to clear to make the Playoff. I think I have come around to they’re safely in the playoff at 10-2 based on how some other results broke recently. This is a tricky game and one that could absolutely be a loss if Ole Miss isn’t sharp. Having said that….. this feels like another South Carolina or Arkansas situation where going in you wonder what may happen but then it’s not really in doubt. It’s hard to pick against OM with the way they’ve looked since halftime of the Oklahoma game. I’ll say Rebels win 34-14.

 

Mizzou -8 at State - that line…. Woah. Closer than I expected. That being said, I think there’s a compelling case that State has a chance here. Especially now that Mizzou’s playoff hopes are dashed and their season has pretty much ended up being a bust. Can State do it? Oh what the heck, it’s been a terrible two seasons, why not have optimism for once. State gets the upset 35-34 and for a brief moment people start to wonder about the Egg Bowl before Ole Miss inevitably wins on Black Friday something like 63-10.

 

Texas A&M -2.5 at Auburn - another line closer than expected. I like A&M to win but think it’s close just because Jordan Hare in November is a weird place to be.

 

Bama -14 at Oklahoma - OU covers but Bama wins ugly

 

Vandy at LSU -8 - does Diego have another big win in him? I’m feeling fun so I’ll say yes, Vandy gets the upset and Brian Kelly’s seat going into next year gets very hot.

 

Kentucky at Texas -20.5 - Kentucky covers but Texas wins. Think we are headed for a massive rivalry renewal in College Station next weekend.

 

Indiana at Ohio State -13.5 - Anyone who knows me knows that I was beating the drum hard for State to hire Curt Cignetti last year. Indiana did it instead, and here they are. I would really love to see IU win this one…. If it weren’t in the horseshoe maybe they would. But I like the Buckeyes by 7 at home.

 

Army vs Notre Dame -14 - this is a game that isn’t being talked about enough that could make the Playoff situation really weird. Think this is being played at Yankee Stadium….. I’m taking Army in the upset here. Would be a phenomenal story if it happens.

 

 

Edited November 19, 2024 by Dawg83

[maroontide06]

We're gonna score 10 points in the Egg Bowl?  When do we celebrate?

[NoWammies]

Ole Miss at #9. They’ve got Ole Miss #10, Georgia #11 and Tennessee first team out in the bracket. That means all Ole Miss has to do is win out. Dear 8lb 6oz newborn baby Jesus please don’t let Ole Miss screw this up. As the days got closer I thought Georgia was going to jump us and I was more worried about would they have Tennessee ahead of us since we had a bye. As of now, Ole Miss is playing in the 7/10 matchup against Indiana with the winner taking on Texas. I’ll take that all day long. Question now becomes is how far will Indiana drop if they get blown out by Ohio St? Do they fall out with just 1 loss but no ranked wins? Would their resume be better than a 10-2 Tennessee team? Kind of hard to say yes with Tennessee having a win over Bama. 

[Insideradvantage]

^^^ Amen. 

[rebmus]

I was hoping Ole Miss would be #9, pretty much a lock IF they win out. 

#10 UGA is pretty safe IF they win out, but these dumb auto bids COULD leave them out if they stay at #10... and I don't see them moving up without teams above them losing. 

 

I think the committee did a fair job with the rankings. 

 

What I don't agree with, at all, is how the seedings are done. Miami getting a 3 seed with a bye while being ranked 8 is silly. Boise State getting a 4 seed and a bye while being ranked 12th is just criminal. 

 

Get rid of auto bids, let the committee rank the top 25 like they do currently... the top 12 get into the playoffs with the seed matching the ranking. A lot of rumors the SEC and Big10 have been meeting about doing something very similar to this. 

[pancho]

there will be 4 teams at a minimum get left out who deserve in the top 12

[rebmus]

83, we kind of hijacked your thread... sorry! 

 

I'm rooting for chaos not including Ole Miss this weekend. All of this below is ASSUMING Ole Miss wins out, HUGE assumption.

 

Kentucky over Texas? Heck yeah I'll take it... I highly doubt it though. 

 

Auburn over A&M would be fun, especially if Texas loses too. This is the one I'm tempted to pick the upset. I haven't watched Auburn a lot this season, but from what I've seen they kill themselves with turnovers. IF Auburn plays a mistake free game, I'd bet on them winning... I wouldn't bet on Auburn making a mistake free game though. 

 

Oklahoma over Bama knocks Bama out of the playoff discussion and moves Ole Miss up a notch in seeding. I like Kentucky's chances of beating Texas more than Oklahoma's chance of beating Bama, and I really don't like Kentucky's chances. 

 

Vandy at LSU is an interesting guess. LSU is out of the playoffs and may not care much. Kelly's seat is hot so he needs a win to offset the players giving up... maybe? Vandy gets another upset feather in their cap with a win. I'm picking LSU to win, but I'm very uncomfortable picking this game either way.

 

State over Missouri would help Ole Miss's SOS so go state? MSU winning would go a long way into getting the fanbase engaged again with hope for Lebby. 

 

Ohio State/Indiana. I don't see Ohio State dropping out of the playoffs with a loss. I can see Indiana dropping out of the playoffs with a 14 point loss (or worse). Tennessee should be rooting very hard for Ohio State to win by 40. This game could open a door for them. 

 

Notre Dame and Army is a game that could throw a wrench in the playoffs. Obviously, ND is in with winning out. Assume Army wins out and Notre Dame finishes 10-2. 

You can't put Notre Dame in the playoffs and leave out undefeated Army that beat ND, a 10-2 ND team has a legit chance to make the playoff. This COULD lead to a scenario with current #10 Georgia being left out of the playoffs. I don't think so, but it's certainly not out of the question. I'd like to see Army win out and get a playoff bid while ND loses to USC next week to knock them out completely. 

 

 

[NoWammies]

I don’t think the auto bids are going to last very long. Should be the best 4 getting the first round bye. Boise St currently getting a bye is absolutely ridiculous. I was trying to do some scenarios in my head for Ole Miss getting a home game if they were to win out. I kinda think if Bama were to win the SECCG and A&M were to beat Texas to get to the SECCG that should move Ole Miss into a home game. That’s also if Indiana were to lose to Ohio St and how far the committee drops them. Gotta beat Florida first though so I don’t wanna get ahead of myself. Still far from being over. 
 

Yea my apologies as well 83 for hijacking the thread. I should’ve put this in the weekly update thread. 

[NoWammies]

Anybody see the “gold” jersey LSU is debuting for the first time this weekend against Vandy? I guess anything to get the kids back excited. 

[Dawg83]

2 hours ago, rebmus said:

I was hoping Ole Miss would be #9, pretty much a lock IF they win out. 

#10 UGA is pretty safe IF they win out, but these dumb auto bids COULD leave them out if they stay at #10... and I don't see them moving up without teams above them losing. 

 

I think the committee did a fair job with the rankings. 

 

What I don't agree with, at all, is how the seedings are done. Miami getting a 3 seed with a bye while being ranked 8 is silly. Boise State getting a 4 seed and a bye while being ranked 12th is just criminal. 

 

Get rid of auto bids, let the committee rank the top 25 like they do currently... the top 12 get into the playoffs with the seed matching the ranking. A lot of rumors the SEC and Big10 have been meeting about doing something very similar to this. 

At the end of the day I don’t really get why certain teams are seeded where they are but I think having Ole Miss and Georgia in over Tennessee is the correct call.

 

OM basically playing for two things between now and next Friday:

 

1. Beat two teams you’ll be favored against and you’re in.

 

2. Can some things happen around you to move up a couple of spots and get that first Playoff game in Oxford? If OM gets shipped to Bloomington or South Bend or Miami I think most OM fans will feel pretty good about it still, but obviously you’d prefer to have your first game be at home rather than a true road game.

 

I do wonder about this hypothetical scenario for Tennessee. Let’s say the SEC title game is Texas vs Alabama and Texas wins…. Am I wrong for thinking a 3 loss Bama shouldn’t be in over a 2 loss Tennessee that beat them? And then you can also get into the scenario of what happens if A&M beats Texas (I honestly have no idea).

 

I think Oregon is the only team totally safe as of today. Everyone else either has to take care of business against lesser teams or needs one more big win.

 

Speaking of Oregon, is it just me or are they a weird number one? Like I think they’re very good but I’m not sure they beat half the Top 10 on a neutral field. If they rematch Ohio State in the Big 12 title game I kinda think Ohio State would win this time.

[NoWammies]

You know what else is weird about Oregon and the Big 10? They just realized today and announced that Oregon has advanced to the conference championship game. They didn’t know that this past Saturday? I also think Ohio St wins the rematch. They haven’t been the same explosive offensive team since their leading receiver Tez Johnson went down a couple games ago but he announced today he’s back. How he is in his return will tell a lot. He was key in the Ohio St game. I’m a little salty with Oregon with how much Heisman love Gabriel is getting when Dart has better numbers. 

[Dawg83]

I think the Heisman is a two horse race between Hunter and Jeanty.

[David44]

 

This gets more ridiculous each week. Show me the 10 teams of this 12 better than Georgia,

The 9 teams better than Ole Miss, or even the 8 teams better than Bama. And OS gets a 

free ride to the semi-finals. What A Joke.

 

 

Edited November 20, 2024 by David44

[Bulldogs4]

Georgia has lost two games (two quality losses but nonetheless two losses). So as of now they are looking up the hill. 
If they keep winning all will take care of itself. 

[NoWammies]

I think Ole Miss is better than at least 6 of those teams ahead of them but they dropped the ball twice by not being consistent so it’s understandable where they’re at and with a loss to Kentucky I say very fortunate where they’re at. That loss scares me every Tuesday night when these things come out. 

[rebmus]

31 minutes ago, NoWammies said:

I think Ole Miss is better than at least 6 of those teams ahead of them but they dropped the ball twice by not being consistent so it’s understandable where they’re at and with a loss to Kentucky I say very fortunate where they’re at. That loss scares me every Tuesday night when these things come out. 

This is why I was hoping for Ole Miss to be ahead of Georgia and Tennessee in the poll last night. 

UT has games left with UTEP and Vandy. 

Georgia has games left with UMASS and Georgia Tech. 

Ole Miss has games left with Florida and MSU. 

 

ASSUMING all 3 teams win out, I see no reason to bump UT or UGA ahead of Ole Miss with those games played. 

[pancho]

I am with you.  we simply can't be surprised at what this committee spits out in the next 2 weeks.

[NoWammies]

First injury report is out and seeing Logan Diggs as questionable instead of out is a beautiful thing to see. Now just gotta see how much rust he has. 

[David44]

4 hours ago, Bulldogs4 said:

Georgia has lost two games (two quality losses but nonetheless two losses). So as of now they are looking up the hill. 
If they keep winning all will take care of itself. 

How many losses would Ohio State, Indiana, or Penn State have if they had played Georgia schedule? How many losses would Georgia have playing Indiana schedule? Big Fat zero.

[Bulldogs4]

2 hours ago, David44 said:

How many losses would Ohio State, Indiana, or Penn State have if they had played Georgia schedule? How many losses would Georgia have playing Indiana schedule? Big Fat zero.

Maybe 2-3 

Maybe a couple 

 

No question that Georgia is a very good team but comparing them with teams in another conference is at best a crap shoot

Edited November 21, 2024 by Bulldogs4

[Dawg83]

11 hours ago, David44 said:

How many losses would Ohio State, Indiana, or Penn State have if they had played Georgia schedule? How many losses would Georgia have playing Indiana schedule? Big Fat zero.

I’m not saying your point is wrong but I do think some are disregarding some poor performances by the SEC teams.

 

Has Indiana or Penn State beaten anybody good? No they haven’t. But what they have done is handled business in games they are supposed to win.

 

Can you say that about Bama? Nope, they lost to Vandy as a 22.5 point favorite.

 

Can you say that about Ole Miss? Nope, they lost to two unranked including at home to a Kentucky team that won’t even make a bowl game.

 

Can you say that about Tennessee? Nope, they lost to an Arkansas team that’s headed for at best 6 or 7 wins.

 

Georgia barely took care of its business. Beat Kentucky by 1, were in big trouble against Florida until Lagway got hurt, didn’t look great against a 2 win State.
 

You can fault IU and PSU’s schedules but you can’t fault them for doing what they needed to do against them. Indiana has won 9 of 10 games by at least two touchdowns, Penn State has also played very few close games.

 

If you are a Bama or Ole Miss or Tennessee and you somehow get left out…. I’m sorry, you had chances to nail this down and didn’t handle business against mediocre teams. Just do that and it’s not even a discussion.

Edited November 21, 2024 by Dawg83

[Former Coach]

1 hour ago, Dawg83 said:

I’m not saying your point is wrong but I do think some are disregarding some poor performances by the SEC teams.

 

Has Indiana or Penn State beaten anybody good? No they haven’t. But what they have done is handled business in games they are supposed to win.

 

Can you say that about Bama? Nope, they lost to Vandy as a 22.5 point favorite.

 

Can you say that about Ole Miss? Nope, they lost to two unranked including at home to a Kentucky team that won’t even make a bowl game.

 

Can you say that about Tennessee? Nope, they lost to an Arkansas team that’s headed for at best 6 or 7 wins.

 

Georgia barely took care of its business. Beat Kentucky by 1, were in big trouble against Florida until Lagway got hurt, didn’t look great against a 2 win State.
 

You can fault IU and PSU’s schedules but you can’t fault them for doing what they needed to do against them. Indiana has won 9 of 10 games by at least two touchdowns, Penn State has also played very few close games.

 

If you are a Bama or Ole Miss or Tennessee and you somehow get left out…. I’m sorry, you had chances to nail this down and didn’t handle business against mediocre teams. Just do that and it’s not even a discussion.

Agree. You don't control your schedule except for non conference games, and those are usually scheduled years out and you have no idea how could or bad a school may be. Whether by luck of the draw or some computer algorithm Texas, Tennessee, and OM had for the most part a pretty weak SEC schedule compared to GA. GA had to play AT TX, OM, and ALA.

And though they are not in the conversation MSU played  at GA, TX, TN, and OM, all 4 in the playoff hunt, by far the toughest schedule.

[Unionman76]

That’s the need for 9 team conferences or divisions, where teams play comparable schedules 

[Former Coach]

17 hours ago, Unionman76 said:

That’s the need for 9 team conferences or divisions, where teams play comparable schedules 

Four, four team pods.

1. TX, TX A&M, MO, OU, 

2. LSU, MSU, OM, ARK,

3. ALA, AUB, TN, VANDY,

4. FL, GA, KEN, SC. 

Teams play everybody in their pod, one permanent opponent from other pods, and play one team from each pod per year rotating through the other three pods each year. This gives you a nine game schedule and you play every SEC team every 3 years. If you look it keeps rivalries in  tact within the pods. Common opponent allows for cross pod rivalries. FL-GA, ALA-LSU, etc. Easy fix so obviously won't be done.

[NoWammies]

Unfortunately no Diggs tomorrow and no Rashad Amos either. UBIV going to have to carry the load.