College Basketball

[Bulldogs4]

Hopefully it is 1-6 and O and 11 about 10P tonight…LOL 

[Dawg83]

Florida smoked Auburn and Kentucky has three straight home losses at Rupp for the first time ever.

 

Can OM make it four on Tuesday?

[rebmus]

22 minutes ago, Dawg83 said:

Florida smoked Auburn and Kentucky has three straight home losses at Rupp for the first time ever.

 

Can OM make it four on Tuesday?

It's one of the better chances of Ole Miss winning at Rupp... but I wouldn't bet on it. We'll see. 

 

 

[Dawg83]

State letting Mizzou hang around by doing what they do, turning it over and missing free throws.

[Dawg83]

Dominant second half for State and they win by 24.

 

Mizzou lives up to their reputation…. Holy smokes they are bad.

Edited February 11, 2024 by Dawg83

[Bulldogs4]

I know this is crazy but this was a huge WIN.

I know they are bad but an 0-10 team is really scary because eventually they are going to beat someone. 
 And to finally win a road game. Hopefully will take some of the pressure off the team and the next road games we can just go out and play. That burden will be gone from the team. 
 

We will see. 

[Bulldogs4]

Plus State has a bye this week which I think comes at a very good time. 
83 the first half was just awful. Missed FT’s and missed shots and turnovers….

please practice free throws this week…

 

[Dawg83]

A&M beat Tennessee, the SEC bubble teams really put in work today. Nobody falling off at this point.

[rebmus]

MSU took care of business, kudos. 

 

Any SEC road win isn't easy at all... Mizzou is one of those that you better win this year to keep NCAAT hopes alive if you're anywhere near the bubble. 

 

Ole Miss really needs to sweep Mizzou home/away to keep the margin of error slim. Beating KY at Rupp would close that margin of error and allow a road loss at Mizzou, maybe? 

 

[Dawg83]

18 minutes ago, rebmus said:

MSU took care of business, kudos. 

 

Any SEC road win isn't easy at all... Mizzou is one of those that you better win this year to keep NCAAT hopes alive if you're anywhere near the bubble. 

 

Ole Miss really needs to sweep Mizzou home/away to keep the margin of error slim. Beating KY at Rupp would close that margin of error and allow a road loss at Mizzou, maybe? 

 

Based on what I saw tonight, I don’t think you gotta worry about “what if we lose to Mizzou”

[Dawg83]

I think the magic number for State is probably 4. And conveniently there are four remaining home games. So in theory if you just win out at home, you don’t necessarily even need another road win.

 

Ole Miss needs at least 4 wins, possibly 5, just depends on who they beat. I do feel like OM probably needs at least one more Q1 win from somewhere.

[Bulldogs4]

Selfishly I would like to see State finish 5-2 down the stretch to be 10-8 on the league. That is going to be difficult as you figure Auburn on the road is going to be a loss. @A&M is going to be a tall chore. Now whether we can win the other games remains to be seen.

Of course, the only game that matters right now is Arkansas. 
Given the conference schedule we are playing this year, 10-8 would be a great accomplishment. 

Ole Miss is in a bit of danger IMO. They have played really well this year but I wonder if they can sustain it the rest of the season. Not a criticism at all just kind of a feeling I have right now. KY presents a great opportunity Tuesday and if they find a way to win that game, then disregard the above. I say that knowing you will beat Missouri twice (even though as a State fan I was worried about them). 
 

Still a lot of games left and the conference season can certainly take some twists and turns over the next four weeks. 

[Dawg83]

9 minutes ago, Bulldogs4 said:

Selfishly I would like to see State finish 5-2 down the stretch to be 10-8 on the league. That is going to be difficult as you figure Auburn on the road is going to be a loss. @A&M is going to be a tall chore. Now whether we can win the other games remains to be seen.

Of course, the only game that matters right now is Arkansas. 
Given the conference schedule we are playing this year, 10-8 would be a great accomplishment. 

Ole Miss is in a bit of danger IMO. They have played really well this year but I wonder if they can sustain it the rest of the season. Not a criticism at all just kind of a feeling I have right now. KY presents a great opportunity Tuesday and if they find a way to win that game, then disregard the above. I say that knowing you will beat Missouri twice (even though as a State fan I was worried about them). 
 

Still a lot of games left and the conference season can certainly take some twists and turns over the next four weeks. 

Agree with most of this. I think State is in a position where due to the fact that they already have two high end wins (Auburn and Tennessee) and now a NET in the mid 30’s, they just need to hold serve down the stretch and they will be fine. There’s a decent chance they are favored in 5 of the last 7 and only need to win four of those most likely. But like you I’m a little greedy and would love for them to find a way to go 5-2 in the last 7.

 

With Ole Miss, I get that the overall record is very good but the NET in the high 50’s and fewer high quality wins is hurting them. Looking at their remaining schedule, OM has three remaining Q1 games (at Kentucky, at State, host Bama). I feel like there’s a good chance they need to win one of those games. But then you’ve also got tough Q2 home games against SC and A&M. And two games against Mizzou that honestly can do more harm than good.

 

I personally would rather be in State’s shoes right now, but that doesn’t mean things couldn’t change in a hurry. Eggsketball Round 2 in Starkville next week is probably an even bigger game than the first meeting was.

[Dawg83]

Lunardi seems to think State has played themselves off the bubble for now, has them solidly in as a 9 seed. He does have Ole Miss in as an 11 seed but one of the last four in.

 

A&M and Florida now solidly in too, so Ole Miss seems to be the most bubbly SEC team right now.

Edited February 13, 2024 by Dawg83

[Insideradvantage]

1 hour ago, Dawg83 said:

Lunardi seems to think State has played themselves off the bubble for now, has them solidly in as a 9 seed. He does have Ole Miss in as an 11 seed but one of the last four in.

 

A&M and Florida now solidly in too, so Ole Miss seems to be the most bubbly SEC team right now.

Yeah, and we will lose tonight so it will get worse. I keep hearing "tonight isn't a bad loss. Won't hurt tournament chances," and yet it seems to hurt tournament chances every time. Gonna have to make hay with what's left after tonight. 

[Dawg83]

59 minutes ago, Insideradvantage said:

Yeah, and we will lose tonight so it will get worse. I keep hearing "tonight isn't a bad loss. Won't hurt tournament chances," and yet it seems to hurt tournament chances every time. Gonna have to make hay with what's left after tonight. 

In a vacuum no it wouldn’t be a bad loss, but these things aren’t played in a vacuum, and a loss here would make three in a row for OM which is definitely not good when you’re close to the cut line.

 

I don’t think OM can just win the games it’s favored in the rest of the way and make it in. They’re gonna need to pull an upset or two somewhere. If not tonight, then they gotta find a big win soon. And frankly having Mizzou on the schedule twice in the last few weeks hurts more than it helps.

[Insideradvantage]

58 minutes ago, Dawg83 said:

In a vacuum no it wouldn’t be a bad loss, but these things aren’t played in a vacuum, and a loss here would make three in a row for OM which is definitely not good when you’re close to the cut line.

 

I don’t think OM can just win the games it’s favored in the rest of the way and make it in. They’re gonna need to pull an upset or two somewhere. If not tonight, then they gotta find a big win soon. And frankly having Mizzou on the schedule twice in the last few weeks hurts more than it helps.

I’ve been thinking the same about Missouri but didn’t state move up several spots after beating them? 

[Dawg83]

5 hours ago, Insideradvantage said:

I’ve been thinking the same about Missouri but didn’t state move up several spots after beating them? 

Yes but the difference is you play them twice and one of them is at home. That one will hurt. Also State was able to blow Mizzou out. OM doesn’t just need to win those games, they probably need to win them comfortably.

 

Efficiency metrics are a big part of NET. I think Ole Miss is currently being docked for close wins early in the year,. The Detroit team that OM beat by a single point is still sitting on zero wins. Which on one hand focusing too much on that is a little insensitive to a situation like OM’s when they were trying to rebuild with a new coach and several new players early in the year. But I think it is a factor.

 

The natural response to that is point to State losing to Southern but amazingly Southern’s metrics are way better than the rest of their conference so that one isn’t hurting as bad as expected, although I’m sure it still hurting to an extent.

[Bulldogs4]

If Southern wins the SWAC and their Tournament and thus makes the Big Dance then the loss does not look quite as bad at the end of the season.

Still a game we should have won easily. But in the jungle of college basketball those games happen occasionally.

Plus, if they do win their conference and tournament, having a win against a P5 team legitimizes their argument “that hey we have a deserving team and we belong” 

 

 

[Dawg83]

Kentucky won pretty comfortably. OM’s margin for error is pretty much gone now. That ultra impressive record of a couple of weeks ago has regressed to the mean. Gotta have a strong finish or they will be NIT bound.

[Bulldogs4]

Vandy with the upset over A&M and LSU lost at FL by two. No conference game outside of Mizzou can be looked at as an automatic win. 
One game at a time maybe a cliche but it is the truth in the SEC this year in basketball. 

 

Unfortunately for Ole Miss, they caught KY at the very worst time. Difficult loss but not unexpected. I said I was concerned about where Ole Miss is emotionally right now. The team is still very capable but that loss to SCAR may have taken a lot out of this team. 

Edited February 14, 2024 by Bulldogs4

[Insideradvantage]

Ole Miss can still comfortably get to the tournament but obviously enough they will have to take care of business with what’s left. Plain and simple. 

[Dawg83]

1 hour ago, Insideradvantage said:

Ole Miss can still comfortably get to the tournament but obviously enough they will have to take care of business with what’s left. Plain and simple. 

Probably need a 4-3 finish at the minimum. And even that may require some work to be done in the SEC tourney.

[Dawg83]

An interesting thing to monitor as we get close to the end of the year, right now State vs Ole Miss would be the 8 vs 9 game in the SEC tourney.

[Bulldogs4]

Two crucial games for State & Ole Miss. Neither Arky nor Mizzou are very good but both teams have to take care of business tomorrow. 

 

And there are back to back Egg Basketball Games Sunday & Wednesday.

 

The State women are coming off a disastrous 20 point loss to a very average Florida team that we beat by double digits on the road earlier in the season. The same Florida that Ole Miss just beat on the road in Overtime last night. 

So who knows what is going to happen? The game is in Oxford but probably 50% of the crowd will be for State so that might negate some of the home court advantage for Ole Miss. 

I guess it depends on which of the teams shows up with their good team for this particular game.

We will see.