CFB Week 12

[Dawg83]

Florida at Ole Miss -15.5: this is a suspicious line, IMO. All common sense in my brain tells me that Florida has quit and Ole Miss should win by four touchdowns. But the vibes are a little weird here just because of the Kiffin and Florida angle. OM people are adamant he’s staying, UF people are adamant he’s leaving, and the man himself has left it a bit open ended for the moment. This feels like a weirdly emotional game for what is 9-1 vs 3-6. That alone makes me wonder if it’s closer than one might expect. I have Ole Miss winning because I simply cannot believe this Florida team is capable of winning in Oxford at night in what I’m sure will be a strong atmosphere. But I’ll lean into the fishy line and say Ole Miss 27 Florida 17., so UF covers but OM wins. And an OM win here should pretty much luck up a playoff spot barring something really crazy.

 

State at Mizzou -7.5: injuries here have really affected both teams. Mizzou is down to its third string QB and there is a distinct possibility that Shapen is unavailable for State. Mizzou is a great running team but their passing has fallen off a cliff with the QB injuries. Good defensive team but they got picked apart by A&M last week. Mizzou has struggled to score touchdowns the last couple of weeks in spite of running the ball well, and State hits these lulls for about a quarter a week where they cannot do a dang thing on offense. I’m honestly struggling to pick this one given so many unknowns on both sides. My heart says State, my head says Mizzou. If there were ever a time for Kamario Taylor to have his breakout star making performance, maybe this is it. What the heck, I’m going for it. State 23, Mizzou 20 to get State bowl eligible. And the Kamario hype train takes off as we move toward an intriguing Egg Bowl on Black Friday.

Oklahoma at Alabama -6.5: I think this is going to be a really interesting game. Bama’s inability to run the ball is going to cost them at some point. But they haven’t lost in Tuscaloosa under DeBoer yet and I don’t think it happens here. Bama by 7.

 

Texas at Georgia -6.5: Texas isn’t dead for the playoff, but Georgia in Athens is a really tough challenge and they seem to be figuring some things out. UGA wins by 10.

 

SC at A&M -18.5: Aggies are for real, Gamecocks stink. A&M wins by 3 touchdowns.

 

Arkansas at LSU -5.5: lol I guess somebody has to win this game. We will see if Arkansas can keep the penalties under 190 yards this time. For all of LSU’s issues they are still likely bowl bound and Arkansas is finishing 2-10 or 3-9. LSU covers at home.

 

Edited November 11, 2025 by Dawg83

[rebmus]

Don't forget Southern Miss with a chance to win their Sun Belt division. 

 

The "big 3" in Mississippi have all played above expectations this season. 

 

 

[Dawg83]

Was surprised to see USM only a 3.5 point home favorite at home vs a 3-6 Texas State.

[Dawg83]

Well, a little bit of a surprise but Shapen and Reese both listed as probable for Saturday. Doesn’t mean they are for sure playing but it’s notable… as is the collective groan from the vocal State contingent who are ready for this to be Kamario’s job. To which I would say I mean that’s fine to want a change but I still think you want Shapen available if you need him.

 

Isaac Smith is out which may be an issue.

[Bulldogs4]

Having a Shapen available is crucial. I am as excited as anyone about Taylor but he is still a Freshman. Having both of them these next two games gives us the best opportunity to win one or both games. 
Albert Reese is crucial for the OL to be better. 
Smith is a big blow for the defense but hopefully we can overcome that a little better than the guys on the offensive side. 
I will make my picks later in the week.,

[Bulldogs4]

1 hour ago, Dawg83 said:

Was surprised to see USM only a 3.5 point home favorite at home vs a 3-6 Texas State.

Think there is some scuttlebutt that USM’s QB may be out this week. That might be affecting the line. 

[Bulldogs4]

Florida @ Ole Miss. SEC matchups can be fickle and you never know what will happen. But even if Florida plays better this week (and I believe they will) Ole Miss should cruise. 
Ole Miss 40, Florida 14

 

State @ Missouri. It is weird that a single lineman (Albert Reese) can make such a difference. But if he is available, I think State finds a way to eke out a win. Unfortunately, Smith is out on the defense, but I think the defense can load the box and try to stop the run.

If those two things happen and if Shapen & Taylor both play, State wins 30-23. 
 

Alabama plays a complete game and overwhelms Oklahoma. 

Bama 28, OK 10.

 

I look for Georgia to pummel TX. TX has been uber lucky all year. That runs out Saturday. 
UGA 35, TX 14. 
 

A&M keeps rolling even though SCAR puts up a fight. A&M 35, SC 13. Game stays close for a while though. 
 

I think Arkansas beats LSU. After last week, LSU has checked out. Arkansas cleans up the penalties and gets a win in Red Stick.

Arkansas 24, LSU 22. 
 

USM gets it done in the Rock over Texas State.

31-20. 
 

 

 

 

 

 

[pancho]

everyone is waiting on the post game presser in Oxford Saturday.  its gettin intense up in there

[Former Coach]

13 hours ago, Bulldogs4 said:

Florida @ Ole Miss. SEC matchups can be fickle and you never know what will happen. But even if Florida plays better this week (and I believe they will) Ole Miss should cruise. 
Ole Miss 40, Florida 14

 

State @ Missouri. It is weird that a single lineman (Albert Reese) can make such a difference. But if he is available, I think State finds a way to eke out a win. Unfortunately, Smith is out on the defense, but I think the defense can load the box and try to stop the run.

If those two things happen and if Shapen & Taylor both play, State wins 30-23. 
 

Alabama plays a complete game and overwhelms Oklahoma. 

Bama 28, OK 10.

 

I look for Georgia to pummel TX. TX has been uber lucky all year. That runs out Saturday. 
UGA 35, TX 14. 
 

A&M keeps rolling even though SCAR puts up a fight. A&M 35, SC 13. Game stays close for a while though. 
 

I think Arkansas beats LSU. After last week, LSU has checked out. Arkansas cleans up the penalties and gets a win in Red Stick.

Arkansas 24, LSU 22. 
 

USM gets it done in the Rock over Texas State.

31-20. 
 

 

 

 

 

 

If State stays in their 3 man front most of the game MZ will run wild and it will look like the GA game. Play mostly a 4 down front and stack the box with 7-8 and stop the run and State has a chance. Think we do need both Shapen and Taylor available. Taylor definitely gives you the running and escape ability, if he doesn't  get blind sided as Shapen was last week.. Shapen however gives you 100% of the playbook as opposed to probably 30% with Taylor. 

[Former Coach]

3 hours ago, pancho said:

everyone is waiting on the post game presser in Oxford Saturday.  its gettin intense up in there

Kiffin going nowhere. He's not leaving UM as long as they are in the playoffs, which will probably be into January. None of the schools are going to wait that long with signing day in December and the portal opening in early January.

[Dawg83]

I don’t know if Kiffin is leaving or staying. I do know that he is cut from the same cloth as Dan Mullen in terms of constantly making his fan base sweat about it.

 

Most of the OM fans that post here have consistently said they feel good about him staying. Apparently other corners of the OM internet were flipping out about it yesterday though.

Edited November 14, 2025 by Dawg83

[NoWammies]

They flipped out because Neal McCready said he thinks he’s gone. I’ve been saying it’s a coin flip but now I’m leaning more 60/40 he’s headed to Florida. He can say it’s not about the money but it’ll be hard to turn down 15M a year. Especially with Jimmy Sexton as agent. 

[hasbeen67]

Some of the talking heads saying the betting lines for Kiffin and the game moved yesterday like somebody knew something.

 

[Dawg83]

51 minutes ago, NoWammies said:

They flipped out because Neal McCready said he thinks he’s gone. I’ve been saying it’s a coin flip but now I’m leaning more 60/40 he’s headed to Florida. He can say it’s not about the money but it’ll be hard to turn down 15M a year. Especially with Jimmy Sexton as agent. 

Saying “It’s not about the money” and having Jimmy Sexton as your agent are not two things that jive together.

[DrownInEtown]

Floridas probably the 3rd or 4th best job right now. I’d be worried about LSU as a Ole Miss fan

[Dawg83]

Yall see where apparently Arkansas has had conversations with Ed Orgeron?

 

Um yes please we all need to see that man calling the Hogs.

[NoWammies]

5 minutes ago, Dawg83 said:

Yall see where apparently Arkansas has had conversations with Ed Orgeron?

 

Um yes please we all need to see that man calling the Hogs.

His LSU paychecks end this year so it’s time for him to hit the sideline again. 

[pancho]

He flat out told Carter that the emblem on the florida helmet could recruit players for him in a way that it can't in oxford.   All we can do now is wait and see if and when Carter can get him to sign on next week sometime.

[NoWammies]

I expect if he does go to Florida, it won’t be announced until after the Egg Bowl and Ole Miss will play the playoffs with an interim head coach which will prob be Golding. If he stays at Ole Miss I expect the announcement will wait til after the playoffs. 

[pancho]

Lane is ticked because Pete said he won't go to Florida with him.  

[NoWammies]

8 minutes ago, pancho said:

Lane is ticked because Pete said he won't go to Florida with him.  

Pete is probably ticked at Lane too because he knows other schools aren’t going to pay him what Ole Miss is paying him. We do have some of the highest paid coordinators in college. I also think Pete thinks he has a shot of becoming the head coach if Lane leaves. 

[Dawg83]

I don’t recall ever seeing a line yo yo up and down like this OM-Florida line.

 

Opened at -13.5. Climbed to -16.5. Now back down to -11.5. All since Sunday.

 

I have no idea what that means for the game itself. As I said in my original post, I am struggling to think of football reasons for Florida not getting run out of the stadium. But Vegas is clearly a little spooked by something.

[s1nglewing]

13 minutes ago, Dawg83 said:

I don’t recall ever seeing a line yo yo up and down like this OM-Florida line.

 

Opened at -13.5. Climbed to -16.5. Now back down to -11.5. All since Sunday.

 

I have no idea what that means for the game itself. As I said in my original post, I am struggling to think of football reasons for Florida not getting run out of the stadium. But Vegas is clearly a little spooked by something.

Maybe Ole Miss' proclivity to do an Ole Miss.

[Dawg83]

My dad pitched an interesting scenario to me last night.

 

The distractions with Kiffin end up costing OM the Florida game and the Egg Bowl and they miss the Playoff.… but then Kiffin ends up staying.

 

Wonder how that would go over. 

[NoWammies]

For anyone in the area, I can’t attend the basketball game tonight because the wife can give birth any day now. Got a brisket on the smoker and bout to throw some jalapeño alligator boudin on it. Y’all are more than welcome to stop by. Gonna have the basketball game going on one tv on the back patio, Oxford/Hernando on the 2nd and Lafayette/Cleveland Central on the 3rd. Sorry no Starkville/Tupelo in this household.