CFB Week 9 Thread

[Dawg83]

Ole Miss at Oklahoma -4.5: the big question for me is does OM let Georgia beat them twice? That was a game OM spent a lot of focus on and also kinda got pushed around at the LOS. Immediately playing another Top 15 team on the road seven days later is a tough follow up. That said, I don’t just love this Oklahoma team. I think their defense is good but hasn’t really seen an offense on the level of OM’s. I think Mateer is dynamic but inconsistent. I am going to take the Sooners just because they’re at home and I have some hangover effect concerns with OM. I think the difference ends up being Mateer’s legs, as mobile QB’s have been a problem so far for OM. But it should be close and OM can absolutely win. Sooners 30, Rebs 24.

 

Texas -6.5 at State: if it weren’t for Penn State and Clemson, the Horns would be maybe the biggest disappointment of the season so far. Just have not looked good offensively at all. Even in their win against OU, it came with one offensive touchdown. So State has a real opportunity here to beat a beatable team, especially in Starkville. I do think Texas’s defense probably gives State issues and this is likely a low-ish scoring game. I think I’m at the point with State where I think there’s a decent chance they break the SEC losing streak before the year is over, but I don’t have a good feel for where it happens, and I trust UT’s ability to find a way to win more than I trust State right now. I have State covering but Texas winning 20-16.

 

Mizzou at Vandy -2.5: what a world we live in where this is a Top 15 matchup with College Gameday in town. I am riding with Diego and the Dores. I trust them a little bit more right now than Mizzou, especially at home. If anyone remembers this game from early last year, Vandy had it won in CoMo then couldn’t finish it. I think they finish it this time.

Texas A&M -2.5 at LSU: nothing about these two teams so far says I should pick LSU…. But I’m picking LSU. Chalk it up to Tiger Stadium at night and this being about the time in the season historically that A&M starts to unravel a bit.

Auburn at Arkansas -2.5: The Dysfunctional Bowl/The “Our Coach is Sleazy” Bowl. Both of these teams have done an amazing job of finding ways to lose games and now a winner must be declared! I think Hugh is done and Arkansas has been playing better recently. Hogs win at home. And our next big coach firing happens Sunday.

Bama -12.5 at SC: Bama wins easily. SC is another team that’s been a big disappointment. Look at their remaining schedule too, this likely ends up being a 4-8 or 5-7 team.

 

Tennessee -7.5 at Kentucky: Vols win and cover. There is a little big of a boogey man thing with them and Kentucky. Good UT teams just typically don’t lose to UK, and good UK teams have struggled to beat bad UT teams. I’m definitely taking a good UT team against a bad UK team.

[pancho]

correct on each.   the freezer will be chilled by sunday

[rebmus]

The first 5 you listed are pretty dang tough picks to guess on. The last two look like obvious picks... Bama and Tennessee should win easily. SHOULD. 

 

I'm taking the home teams in the other games, whenever I can't really decide I just go with the home team... works out more often than not. 

 

The ones I'm most interested in? 

1. Obviously OM at Oklahoma. (#1 for me for obvious reasons) A win puts OM squarely in the playoff conversation. A loss leaves OM with zero margin of error. OM needs to finish 10-2 (or better, duh) to get into the playoffs. Ole Miss will likely favored in every game after Oklahoma, so going 10-2 after a loss this Saturday isn't out of the question at all. I've been an Ole Miss fan for over 50 years, I'd feel much better with a win... not losing a game OM shouldn't just rarely happens. 

 

2. A&M at LSU. A&M has a huge opportunity to prove their #3 ranking here. I'm not sold they're that good or not that good. Winning a night game at LSU will certainly help "prove" that ranking. This is a great place to plug I like the new CFP committee waiting until November to release their first rankings... it makes so much more sense. 

 

3. Mizzou at Vandy. The winner will be riding high in the sky, the loser will be facing most saying "same old (insert loser school), I told yall they were overrated." I think both teams are both borderline playoff teams that can give anyone in the country a challenge. I suspect both will just miss out on the playoffs, a lot better than most teams can say. 

 

4. Texas at MSU. MSU is definitely improved, Texas is definitely worse. Other than LSU over A&M, this is my favorite pick of the first five. 

 

5. Auburn at Arkansas. This may well be an entertaining game, but does anyone (outside of Auburn/Arkansas) really care who wins? Does Freeze get a massage at halftime? 

 

6/7. These games could be of interest IF they're competitive, I just doubt they will be. I'm certainly rooting for upsets but no chance I'd bet on it.  

 

[Vott]

20 hours ago, rebmus said:

The first 5 you listed are pretty dang tough picks to guess on. The last two look like obvious picks... Bama and Tennessee should win easily. SHOULD. 

 

I'm taking the home teams in the other games, whenever I can't really decide I just go with the home team... works out more often than not. 

 

The ones I'm most interested in? 

1. Obviously OM at Oklahoma. (#1 for me for obvious reasons) A win puts OM squarely in the playoff conversation. A loss leaves OM with zero margin of error. OM needs to finish 10-2 (or better, duh) to get into the playoffs. Ole Miss will likely favored in every game after Oklahoma, so going 10-2 after a loss this Saturday isn't out of the question at all. I've been an Ole Miss fan for over 50 years, I'd feel much better with a win... not losing a game OM shouldn't just rarely happens. 

 

2. A&M at LSU. A&M has a huge opportunity to prove their #3 ranking here. I'm not sold they're that good or not that good. Winning a night game at LSU will certainly help "prove" that ranking. This is a great place to plug I like the new CFP committee waiting until November to release their first rankings... it makes so much more sense. 

 

3. Mizzou at Vandy. The winner will be riding high in the sky, the loser will be facing most saying "same old (insert loser school), I told yall they were overrated." I think both teams are both borderline playoff teams that can give anyone in the country a challenge. I suspect both will just miss out on the playoffs, a lot better than most teams can say. 

 

4. Texas at MSU. MSU is definitely improved, Texas is definitely worse. Other than LSU over A&M, this is my favorite pick of the first five. 

 

5. Auburn at Arkansas. This may well be an entertaining game, but does anyone (outside of Auburn/Arkansas) really care who wins? Does Freeze get a massage at halftime? 

 

6/7. These games could be of interest IF they're competitive, I just doubt they will be. I'm certainly rooting for upsets but no chance I'd bet on it.  

 

Would it not be a typical Ole Miss moment if they won out the rest of the way and then lost the Egg Bowl and it made MSU bowl eligible

[pancho]

who State gonna beat to make that possible?

[Dawg83]

25 minutes ago, pancho said:

who State gonna beat to make that possible?

I think either of the next two games are winnable for State. Don’t see Georgia as winnable. Mizzou is at best a maybe but I probably wouldn’t expect State to win that on the road.

[Dawg83]

1 hour ago, Vott said:

Would it not be a typical Ole Miss moment if they won out the rest of the way and then lost the Egg Bowl and it made MSU bowl eligible

It is entirely possible that the Egg Bowl is 9-2 vs. 5-6 with OM needing a win to make the playoff and State needing a win for bowl eligibility.

[Bulldogs4]

Ole Miss @ Oklahoma. I think Ole Miss is going to find a way this Saturday. OK is good but not Jawja good. Ole Miss 31-28.

 

TX@State. I just don’t know. Somewhere along the way we are going to win a conference game but I just don’t think it will today. Similar to 83. We give a great effort but fall a bit short. TX 24, State 20.

 

A&M @ LSU. Red Stick has generally been a nightmare for A&M. And it could be again this year. It is going to be ugly but I will take A&M 14-10. 
 

Mizzou-Vandy. Gonna keep riding with the Dores.  Vandy 24, Show-Me State 17.

 

Bama-SC. Now I am not suffering from a fever. Upset special of the day. SC 27, Bama 25. After running the table for four weeks in a row, Bama does the unthinkable but yet the perfectly reasonable thing here. Plays flat, overlooking an inferior opponent and pulls a loss out of what you should be an easy win. Today will remind us that Saban is no longer the coach at Bama.

 

Arkansas 30, Auburn 27. I do think Auburn is done for save the Iron Bowl where they will play with their hair on fire. 
 

Tennessee (name the score) > KY (2-3 Touchdowns less than TN). 

[Dawg83]

I may have not given enough respect to the mismatch at head coach that Kiffin vs Venables appears to be

[Dawg83]

Case in point, running an outsize zone running play out of your own end zone. WTF.

[Dawg83]

Ole Miss came into this with the far better offensive plan of the two teams. And the OM defense playing with a pulse this week helps, too.

 

OM looks like the better team here, and it may not be close.

[Bulldogs4]

Solid first half for Ole Miss but they have to play four quarters. 

[Dawg83]

Good win for Ole Miss after they started to let it slip away in the 3rd. I thought they were clearly the better team. OU’s defense is quality but you have to be able to score consistently to beat OM, and OU’s offense simply was not good enough.

[maroontide06]

The helmets look fantastic.  I don’t know how the outcome will turn out, but those helmets are great.

[Dawg83]

State up by 10 at the half, played an excellent second quarter. Arch and the Texas OL have not looked good so far. Meanwhile Shapen is playing maybe his best game as a Bulldog to this point.

[maroontide06]

Wow it’s happening again.

[Insideradvantage]

Damn, State. The one time I was pulling for y’all. 

[Bulldogs4]

Game last four quarters.

Two costly penalties by the defense.

1. Gave them a TD instead of a FG

2. Late hit on the QB on a fourth down play. Totally turned the game there. Otherwise it would have been over at that point. 

Did a lot things well but we have to learn how to finish out a game and not give the other team more opportunities. 

[Dawg83]

Struggling to find words to describe that one.

 

I thought State played really well for 50 minutes and then didn’t do the little things well in the last 10 and it all unraveled for them.

 

A lot of folks are going to be REALLY down on Lebby after the last two weeks and that’s not an unfair way to view things. It is unbelievably frustrating to have those two games in that position and not be able to close either one of them. I mean those are two all time painful losses back to back if you’re a State fan.

 

But dang it if you aren’t really freaking close and still have winnable games to be had on the schedule. Arkansas is still absolutely a winnable game next week, and Mizzou lost their starting QB for the season (after already losing their backup for the season) so who knows what kind of Mizzou team you’ll be seeing in 3 weeks.

 

I understand it is hard to be hopeful if you’re a State fan right now and it’s hard for anyone to ask State fans to not bail on this team. I am just saying that even with the painful losses, this group has shown a lot of qualities and resiliency to where it’s entirely possible there’s a light or two at the end of the tunnel before the year is over.

 

And if they go 4-8, we’ll have all offseason to talk about what Lebby needs to do in 2026 to not get fired after Year 3.

[David44]

Well I did not have Brian Kelly as the next fired coach after Pittman an Napier an before Freeze. Total fail in the bayou.

[Dawg83]

Look I have no Idea if Lane Kiffin is leaving Ole Miss or not.

 

But I have been wondering for a week or two if all the discussion about “would he go to Florida” is maybe the wrong job to be worrying about.

 

Because whatever you think about Florida may be a moot point if LSU is about to cut in front of them in the line to talk to Kiffin.

Edited October 26, 2025 by Dawg83

[Insideradvantage]

He’s not going to either. 

[NoWammies]

15 minutes ago, Insideradvantage said:

He’s not going to either. 

He’s going to be the 13.5M dollar man walking the sidelines of Oxford games next year watching Knox lead the Chargers. 

[Dawg83]

1 minute ago, NoWammies said:

He’s going to be the 13.5M dollar man walking the sidelines of Oxford games next year watching Knox lead the Chargers. 

Very much a possibility too. OM has done a great job of hanging on to him to this point and KC is a very good AD.

 

But he will be pursued regardless.

[Bulldogs4]

I don’t see Kiffin leaving Ole Miss. He has a good thing going. Not exactly the same but there would be some parallels to Mullen leaving State in 2017 when he was about to have his best team in 2018.

He has got a lot of momentum there. Why leave that to walk into a cesspool in GNV or BTR? 

Going forward I think coaching contracts are going to be for shorter durations. I just don’t see schools tying up so much money long term with the coaching turnover that we are seeing in the present day.