College Football Opening Week(s) Thread

[Dawg83]

We have almost made it, friends. As I post this, 9 days away from a little bit of Week 0 action, and just two weeks away from the majority of the country getting started.

 

Not a whole lot to dissect with Week 0, Notre Dame vs Navy in Dublin possibly has some fun potential. ND is a 20 point favorite but they only beat Navy by 3 last year. Hawaii at Vandy and USC vs San Jose State are something to watch if you’re bored, at least.

 

After that we really get going. All three MS teams play FCS openers, so not a ton to preview there, but obviously each team has certain things to keep an eye on. In general it is not a tremendous Week 1 slate around the country, but there are a few games that I am interested in.

 

LSU-Florida State: this is the big one, a Sunday night game in Orlando. I think both teams are legit playoff contenders and could see this one going either way. I will take FSU just because I like their offense a little bit better.

 

Florida at Utah is a really neat Thursday night opener next week. Never thought I’d see Florida playing a road game this far away from home. I like Utah in this one, that is a sneaky tough place to play and I do not expect Florida to be great this year.

 

Other games to keep an eye on include South Carolina vs UNC, Washington vs Boise State, maybe Colorado vs TCU for Deion’s debut. I really like the Labor Day Monday game, Clemson at Duke should be a good game.

 

For the season, I have State going 8-4, Ole Miss going 7-5, and USM going 6-6.

[pancho]

I agree on your predictions for the season but I am hoping USM can squeeze out 1 more win and go 7-5

[MSTSatchmo]

I’ve got State at 6-6 and OM at 8-4.  
State has too many toss up games on the road (Arkansas, A&M, SC, Auburn) and OM has some of those same type games at home (Arkansas, A&M, Vandy).  
 

If OM gets the Tulane game, they’ll have at least an 8 win year.  
State needs the Arizona win at home.  After that they have a tough 3 game run with LSU and Bama at home and S Carolina on the road.  
 

USM I think can get to 7-5.  I think they’ve upgraded their roster and went 6-6 last year.  

[maroontide06]

I just don't see State going 6-6.  If they were to do that, they would have to lose all of their road games plus a couple at home.  I think they'll split the home and away conference games and finish at 8-4.  They could even do better than that though, but things have got to be going extremely well for that to happen and it very well could.  If State somehow manages to upset either LSU or Bama, then going north of 8 wins for them is certainly attainable.  Do I expect it?  No, but that's why you have to play the games.

Edited August 18, 2023 by maroontide06

[Dawg83]

I said 6-6 for USM just because the nonconference schedule is brutal. Playing Florida State, Mississippi State, and Tulane means you could have three losses before you even factor in league play. I do like where USM gets Tulane though, in Hattiesburg a week after Tulane hosts Ole Miss. And they did beat Tulane last year in a similar spot. So I do think there is a definite path to 7 or 8 wins.

 

For the record, I have State and Ole Miss both being 7-4 entering the Egg Bowl, and I have State winning the Egg. I am really having a tough time picking some of the losses for both teams though, just a ton of games that could go either way. I just believe State goes 2-2 on the road, though no idea which is which, and loses to Bama and LSU. I think Ole Miss loses to Bama, Georgia, LSU, and drops a road game at either Tulane or Auburn.

 

I think A&M is either going like 4-8 or 10-2. I cannot decide if that is going to be an unbelievable train wreck or if they play to their potential and are actually a really good team.

 

My sleeper team in the SEC this year is Kentucky. I am usually a UK skeptic, I thought Will Levis was super overrated. But I really like the addition of Devin Leary, IF he can stay healthy, which has been an issue at times. I am not saying they win, but I think there is a possibility that Kentucky vs Bama in Lexington late in the year is a far more interesting game than people expect. I think this UK team has 10-2 potential, and a floor of 7-5 (again, with the caveat that Leary has to stay healthy).

[MSTSatchmo]

I agree on UK and that’s another one of State’s tough home games.  Bama, LSU, UK and OM.  I don’t think it will be, but it could easily be 0-4 in SEC play in Starkville.   
 

I just don’t know what to expect from State’s offense.   

[Dawg83]

1 hour ago, MSTSatchmo said:

I just don’t know what to expect from State’s offense.   

What if I told you I personally have more questions about the defense?

 

I know it’s a scheme change but you have seniors everywhere on the offense, and I actually think a lot of the skill talent is better suited for the Barbay offense than the Air Raid.

 

I frankly am more concerned about 3 new starters at the safety position and depth questions across the board on defense. I think they will be good against the run but have definite questions about pass rush and not letting good offenses pick you apart. And State won’t have to wait long to run into some of the best offenses on their schedule.
 

I could definitely see this being a team that starts slow but is playing its best ball by the end of October.

[MSTSatchmo]

That’s definitely fair, especially in the secondary.  
 

It’s obviously a positive to have seniors on offense, it just sucks that they’ll be spending their last year trying to get used to a new offense.  Running it in practice is a lot different than getting comfortable with it in game situations.  

 

A lot of the defensive success will be determined by how much the offense leaves them on the field.  Leach had his share of 3 and outs, but his offense also had some time consuming 10+ play drives.  
 

I’m just glad all the games are about to start. 

[Dawg83]

15 minutes ago, MSTSatchmo said:

That’s definitely fair, especially in the secondary.  
 

It’s obviously a positive to have seniors on offense, it just sucks that they’ll be spending their last year trying to get used to a new offense.  Running it in practice is a lot different than getting comfortable with it in game situations.  

 

A lot of the defensive success will be determined by how much the offense leaves them on the field.  Leach had his share of 3 and outs, but his offense also had some time consuming 10+ play drives.  
 

I’m just glad all the games are about to start. 

I thought State’s offense was better in Leach’s second year than his third year. They had some really rough conference games last year.

[Bulldogs4]

If Leach was alive, then this year’s roster would be the fulfillment of what he started in 2020. Obviously, with his death, the offense will look somewhat different though I think some aspects of the AR will still be there. Diversifying the offense should be a plus overall. Defense has been pretty salty each year snd hopefully will continue to be this season. 
Special teams, especially XP/FG kicking has been inconsistent at times. Hopefully those woes are behind us. The KO returns with Tulu has been a great advantage and hopefully that will continue. 
I think State finishes 6-6 with a potential of 8-4 and if we catch some breaks/luck 9-3 would be possible. Although AZ is improved, we should win that game at home and be able to go 4-0 in the NC games. I don’t like playing USM the week before the EB but Southern is not the same team they were from the late 70’s-2011. Plus I have to believe that our players recognize that game as an instate game and attach the necessary importance to it as well. 
If we are 4-0 in NC, to get to 6 wins that means two conference wins. This team has won on the the road over the last two years and I believe we are capable of winning OTR this year. OTOH, Arnett is a first year HC and I fully believe he will have a few WTF moments during season. That is reality. Whether they cost us a game or two remains to be seen. First Year HC’s will have some growing pains. 
We will be decided under Dawgs against Bama/LSU though we play both of those games early and they are at home. Most likely 0-2, but the games are still played on the field. 
The other six games are generally going to be looked at as toss up games (SC, Arky, A&M, KY, Aub, OM). Can we manage 2-3-4 wins from group? 
We shall see.

 

I will post something about Ole Miss and USM later. 

[Dawg83]

1 hour ago, Bulldogs4 said:

If Leach was alive, then this year’s roster would be the fulfillment of what he started in 2020. Obviously, with his death, the offense will look somewhat different though I think some aspects of the AR will still be there. Diversifying the offense should be a plus overall. Defense has been pretty salty each year snd hopefully will continue to be this season. 
Special teams, especially XP/FG kicking has been inconsistent at times. Hopefully those woes are behind us. The KO returns with Tulu has been a great advantage and hopefully that will continue. 
I think State finishes 6-6 with a potential of 8-4 and if we catch some breaks/luck 9-3 would be possible. Although AZ is improved, we should win that game at home and be able to go 4-0 in the NC games. I don’t like playing USM the week before the EB but Southern is not the same team they were from the late 70’s-2011. Plus I have to believe that our players recognize that game as an instate game and attach the necessary importance to it as well. 
If we are 4-0 in NC, to get to 6 wins that means two conference wins. This team has won on the the road over the last two years and I believe we are capable of winning OTR this year. OTOH, Arnett is a first year HC and I fully believe he will have a few WTF moments during season. That is reality. Whether they cost us a game or two remains to be seen. First Year HC’s will have some growing pains. 
We will be decided under Dawgs against Bama/LSU though we play both of those games early and they are at home. Most likely 0-2, but the games are still played on the field. 
The other six games are generally going to be looked at as toss up games (SC, Arky, A&M, KY, Aub, OM). Can we manage 2-3-4 wins from group? 
We shall see.

 

I will post something about Ole Miss and USM later. 

I am not saying 6-6 is impossible, but I think most State fans would view that as a pretty big failure in Year 1 for Arnett and Barbay. Especially considering how experienced the roster is and the fact that you are probably looking at somewhat of a rebuild in 2024.

[Bulldogs4]

And I am not being pessimistic with that but realistic. 2009/2018, we had talented, veteran teams with new coaches albeit the 2018 team was far superior than the 2009 team. But both underachieved because partly of having a new HC.  Again 2018 more so because of the more immediate previous success of the program. But again there are parallels. 
I hope we can break that tendency this year with a veteran team and a more consistent transition with the HC since Arnett was already part of the staff. 
All that to say I am being pragmatic with my appraisal of the team. 

[Dawg83]

It’s very fair to have questions about a 36 year old head coach that’s never done it before anywhere, especially in this league.

 

I guess I would say I am generally optimistic about Arnett as a head coach. I think culturally he is an excellent fit for State. What remains to be seen is how ready he can get his team for gameday and how prepared he is for crunch time and making important decisions.

 

And I could be wrong, but my hunch is that Barbay’s offense is going to be stylistically appealing to State fans, which is something that probably hasn’t been the case since Mullen left.

Edited August 20, 2023 by Dawg83

[Bulldogs4]

And I want to add, I am excited about Arnett in the long term while understanding that 2024 is going to see us playing a lot new players. I think our fan base recognizes that will take some lumps next year. 

And I am excited to see how this season unfolds as well. 

[hasbeen67]

I just hope it's not baseball season over again (except for USM).

[Dawg83]

2 hours ago, hasbeen67 said:

I just hope it's not baseball season over again (except for USM).

I survived the mid 2000’s with Croom and Orgeron, and 2018-19 with Moorhead and Luke. Hopefully we are past that now.

[maroontide06]

10 hours ago, Dawg83 said:

I survived the mid 2000’s with Croom and Orgeron, and 2018-19 with Moorhead and Luke. Hopefully we are past that now.

Were you there for the Troy State and Tulane games under Sherrill?  I was at both of them.  We were sitting in the upper deck for the Troy State game and we had just walked up the ramps, got to our seats, sat down and as soon as we sat down, the tornado sirens went off.  Needless to say, we didn't see that game and I was glad we didn't go back to watch that disaster.

[Dawg83]

59 minutes ago, maroontide06 said:

Were you there for the Troy State and Tulane games under Sherrill?  I was at both of them.  We were sitting in the upper deck for the Troy State game and we had just walked up the ramps, got to our seats, sat down and as soon as we sat down, the tornado sirens went off.  Needless to say, we didn't see that game and I was glad we didn't go back to watch that disaster.

I was there for Troy State, Maine, UAB, Tulane, and 3-2, and I somehow did not switch allegiances. Lol.

[maroontide06]

1 minute ago, Dawg83 said:

I was there for Troy State, Maine, UAB, Tulane, and 3-2, and I somehow did not switch allegiances. Lol.

You sound like me LOL!

[Bulldogs4]

I go back way farther than any of you. 1986 we started 6-1 with wins over Syracuse, Tennessee, Florida, Memphis State and Tulane and the only loss was a heartbreaking 28-24 to Southern.

 

Then we promptly got blasted by Auburn, LSU, Bama & OM by a combined 12-144. Yep that is being outscored by a ratio of 12-1. 
 

And that ladies and gentlemen is about as bad as it gets. And to rub salt in to the wound , all four of those games were in Starkvegas/Jackson. 
 

I also remember us getting beat by Houston 74-0 back in 1969. 
 

As a result I appreciate every win that we earn today and I never take anything for granted. 

[hasbeen67]

'86 is about the era when this joke was going around. A man had a dog he took to games. Someone noticed when a field goal was kicked, the dog ran around and barked. They asked the owner what the dog did when they scored a TD. He said I don't know, I've only had him two years.

[maroontide06]

12 hours ago, Bulldogs4 said:

I go back way farther than any of you. 1986 we started 6-1 with wins over Syracuse, Tennessee, Florida, Memphis State and Tulane and the only loss was a heartbreaking 28-24 to Southern.

 

Then we promptly got blasted by Auburn, LSU, Bama & OM by a combined 12-144. Yep that is being outscored by a ratio of 12-1. 
 

And that ladies and gentlemen is about as bad as it gets. And to rub salt in to the wound , all four of those games were in Starkvegas/Jackson. 
 

I also remember us getting beat by Houston 74-0 back in 1969. 
 

As a result I appreciate every win that we earn today and I never take anything for granted. 

Have you had a chance to meet Coach Twig Branch?  He played QB (wore #0) for Slick Morton back in the early 50's and was the smallest starting college QB in the country at that time.  He coached Picayune from 1957-62 and still lives here.  He was at our spring game and he attends pretty much all of our home games as well.  When Joe Fortunato gives you your nickname, it definitely makes for an interesting story to tell.  You would enjoy talking to him if you haven't had a chance to.

[Dawg83]

State just announced they sold out their allotment of season tickets for the first time since 2015 (Dak’s senior year).

[Bulldogs4]

I am definitely going to the AZ game but not certain about the other games. At my age I am usually good for a one or two games a year.

I have a good buddy who is a long USM alum and fan and he wants me to ride with him up to the Southern game in November. We went in 2014 and 2019 and had a great time on campus.

 

[Dawg83]

State got a grad transfer DB from Purdue TODAY. Like he just got here. Was apparently a starter last year that got recruited over with portal guys.

 

Interesting to add experience and depth at a spot that’s questionable for State, but with the season starting in 9 days, hard to picture this guy making an impact anytime soon. Maybe he can give you something in the second half of the season.