CFB Week 3 Thread

[Dawg83]

Not a tremendous slate of games overall but some notable ones locally.

 

State being a favorite in Baton Rouge (albeit slight) is something I never thought I’d see. I generally have no clue what to expect from this one. My gut says State has a better team this year, but I have a lifetime full of LSU related PTSD that prevents me from feeling overly confident about it, particularly in Baton Rouge. I think the game will go however Jayden Daniels goes. If State can contain him then I think they win, if they let him scramble for a bunch of yards or hit several deep balls then it’s gonna be tough. I am expecting a close game regardless, but I’ll say State wins something like 27-24.

 

Ole Miss has its first semi-interesting game at Georgia Tech. That said, even with all its lingering questions, OM is still favored by 16 on the road, that should tell you a lot about how bad GT has been. I think Ole Miss covers and may win by a lot more than 16. It’s a much different Georgia Tech than when State has played them in the last 10-15 years, and different in a bad way.

 

Penn State at Auburn sounds like a disgusting game. The winning team may not score 20 points. I continue to be low on Auburn so I’ll take Penn State, although I could see AU winning at home.

 

Miami at Texas A&M was more interesting before A&M got App State’d. I could be wrong but I feel like it’s only a matter of time before A&M makes a QB change. That said, I’m not sold on Miami so I’ll take A&M to bounce back at home before they hit a really tough stretch of games (Arkansas, State, and Bama all in a row, and all away from College Station).

 

Beyond that, not much meat on the bone. College Gameday is going to App State vs Troy if that tells you anything. Maybe we will see some upsets around the country, but certainly most will be monitoring whatever happens in Baton Rouge and Atlanta.

 

 

[rebmus]

State's record vs LSU is BAD, it's definitely odd seeing State favored... especially at LSU. From the 2 games we've seen, I think State is the better team. IF this game was in Starkville AND as much as I want to see LSU/Kelly fail... I lean LSU pulls out a very close win in Baton Rouge. Whichever way this game goes, I think it will be a great game to watch. 

 

OM at GT is a much closer trip, but similar to the MSU at Arizona game last week. It's a respected P5 matchup on the road, but not against a very good team. It's a game OM SHOULD win. I'll take OM to win but not cover. 

 

I see Penn State and Auburn as both 7ish wins teams. Auburn hosts so I'll go with Auburn. 

 

A&M got embarrassed last week, I lean they blow out Miami this weekend. 

 

 

 

 

 

[maroontide06]

Would the FPI have something to do with it?  State is 9th in the FPI while I believe LSU is like 12th.  I really like the way this Mississippi State football team is looking, but they just need to keep their head to the plow and focus on the task at hand and that is to beat LSU this week.  They will need to lock in and play a solid game in Death Valley.

[Dawg83]

I was surprised to learn that since 2014, State has the same record against LSU as they do Ole Miss. That’s hard to believe given how lopsided the State-LSU series was in the 90’s and 2000’s. Between 1992 and 2013 State only beat LSU one time.

 

And even when State has lost to LSU in recent years, it’s usually been a close game. Lost by 2 in 2015, lost by 3 in 2016 and last year. I grew up on Saban and Miles beating State by at least 30 points virtually every year.

[rebmus]

8 hours ago, Dawg83 said:

I was surprised to learn that since 2014, State has the same record against LSU as they do Ole Miss. That’s hard to believe given how lopsided the State-LSU series was in the 90’s and 2000’s. Between 1992 and 2013 State only beat LSU one time.

 

And even when State has lost to LSU in recent years, it’s usually been a close game. Lost by 2 in 2015, lost by 3 in 2016 and last year. I grew up on Saban and Miles beating State by at least 30 points virtually every year.

Things changed around 2014.

Before that, LSU was a given win over MSU and Bama was a given win over Ole Miss. Ole Miss would give LSU fits almost every year while MSU gave Bama fits almost every year up until 2014.

We seemed to switch places in 2014.

 

[Dawg83]

1 hour ago, rebmus said:

Things changed around 2014.

Before that, LSU was a given win over MSU and Bama was a given win over Ole Miss. Ole Miss would give LSU fits almost every year while MSU gave Bama fits almost every year up until 2014.

We seemed to switch places in 2014.

 

I don’t know what the reason is for that change for Ole Miss, but for State the common thread is Saban. They’ve beaten him once ever between his two stops at LSU and Bama, and hilariously that one win was by Sly Croom.

[Bulldogs4]

It was Saban’s first year at Bama and that 2007 State team was a great defensive team with an average offense. Croom’s team were very blue collar and tough and I think we just out toughed them that day.

In fact , during Croom’s tenure, we went three straight games with out giving up an offensive touch down to Bama. I am sure he being a Bama was a big reason why. The team really played up against Bama. 
 

Over the last nine years, we have only played three competitive games against Bama 

2013,2014,2017. 2017 is the one game in particular that we could have won.

2014 we had a terrible start. Played well from the second quarter on but just ran out of time. 
 

Obviously, everyone outside UGA plays Bama at a talent deficiency. It will be interesting later this year to see how we play them. 
 

The LSU series has gone in steaks with them obviously having some long dominate stretches.

But from 1974-1991, State was 11-7 against LSU so we have had success against them at times over the years. 

 

[Dawg83]

I had forgotten about the weird streak of Bama not being able to score an offensive TD against State. Man I miss Mike Shula. Lol.

Edited September 15, 2022 by Dawg83

[rebmus]

11 hours ago, Dawg83 said:

 Man I miss Mike Shula. Lol.

Almost everyone outside of Tuscaloosa misses Mike Shula. Ha

 

 

[Bulldogs4]

Well it is interesting how history would have been different if Bama would have had the b*lls  to have hired Croom instead of Shula. 
 

There is no doubt in my mind that Bama would have been much more successful under Croom than they were Shula. Now granted he was old fashioned and hard headed but with the talent that Bama had he would have won games. I don’t know how long his tenure would have lasted as I don’t think he would have won enough to satisfy the spoiled Bama fans. But nonetheless, he would have been much more successful than Shula who was a joke as a HC. Bama would have also garnered the praise that State got for hiring the first black HC in the SEC. 
 

Oh well, it is just another way to look at how history could have been very different if another decision was made. 
 

I wish we would get the edge back that we played Bama with under Croom in the present day. He was 2-3 against Bama over 5 years. Understanding that the eras are different but at least then we bloodied their nose when we played them. 

[s1nglewing]

He was 2-3 against Alabama bc Alabama sucked when he was at MSU. He was below average as a SEC HC at a middling SEC program. Any warm body other than Shula would have done better with Alabama in that period. 

[Dawg83]

A&M making a QB change, Max Johnson (LSU transfer) will start tomorrow. I actually thought he was pretty good at LSU and was surprised he didn’t win the job at A&M from the jump. Haynes King has looked really bad so Jimbo didn’t have much of a choice.

 

Johnson isn’t a game changer but you can still have a solid season with him and he’s not a noticeable liability. Not sure you could say that about King.

 

Tomorrow is a must win for A&M because their next three are going to be really, really tough.

[Bulldogs4]

His three TD passes that he threw against us were the reason we lost last years game. Now granted they were fairly short passes that receivers turned into long runs. But nonetheless, he did throw and complete them. 
That created the separation that allowed LSU to get the lead and hold on to win the game. 
 

 

[rebmus]

Florida State @ Louisville tied 14-14 after 1 quarter tonight, this could be a good watch. 

[Bulldogs4]

Florida State with the win over SDF (errr Louie-Ville) on the road. Wyoming with a victory over Air Force. Seems like AF has declined precipitously over the recent years. There was a time where they were very consistently good. Of course they started 2-0 but the wins were over N. Iowa & Colorado who both seem to be awful teams. 
 

Any gut feelings today on an unexpected upset from anybody? 
 

South Alabama over ucla or Old Dominion over Virginia are two possible upsets that I could see happening. 

[MSTSatchmo]

Im still not sure what to think about the LSU/State game.  
 

LSU is a totally different team, plus they’ve looked bad against a decent team and good against a bad team.  I’ll have to go with LSU at home.   I agree with 83 though, I think the game will be determined by Daniel’s play.  
 

I think OM gets a double digit win against Tech.  Everyone will be watching the QB play for OM, but I think the defense wins it for them. 

[MSTSatchmo]

Did anyone watch the old the Netflix series QB1.   It’s interesting watching the players paths once they get to college.   

[Dawg83]

2 hours ago, Bulldogs4 said:

Florida State with the win over SDF (errr Louie-Ville) on the road. Wyoming with a victory over Air Force. Seems like AF has declined precipitously over the recent years. There was a time where they were very consistently good. Of course they started 2-0 but the wins were over N. Iowa & Colorado who both seem to be awful teams. 
 

Any gut feelings today on an unexpected upset from anybody? 
 

South Alabama over ucla or Old Dominion over Virginia are two possible upsets that I could see happening. 

I’m keeping an eye on UTSA at Texas as a potential upset. Classic letdown spot post-Bama, plus UTSA has a really good offense.

[MSTSatchmo]

Syracuse and Purdue had a wild ending.  Shrader, from State, had a TD winning drive aided by several penalties.  Lol.  He still can’t throw, but he makes plays.  
 

10-9 Purdue heading into the 4th.  
Final 32-29 Syracuse 

[Dawg83]

Georgia Tech is not what I would call good. LOL. Ole Miss can pick their score in this one. Totally dominant so far.

[MSTSatchmo]

200+ rushing with 7 yards per carry so far.   OM really doesn’t need a QB today.  Lol 

 

Clemson really didn’t pull away from Tech until the 4th quarter fwiw. 

Edited September 17, 2022 by MSTSatchmo

[MSTSatchmo]

5 hours ago, Bulldogs4 said:

Florida State with the win over SDF (errr Louie-Ville) on the road. Wyoming with a victory over Air Force. Seems like AF has declined precipitously over the recent years. There was a time where they were very consistently good. Of course they started 2-0 but the wins were over N. Iowa & Colorado who both seem to be awful teams. 
 

Any gut feelings today on an unexpected upset from anybody? 
 

South Alabama over ucla or Old Dominion over Virginia are two possible upsets that I could see happening. 

S Alabama had UCLA then lost on a last second FG.  
 

I still can’t believe Chip Kelly hasn’t done anything at UCLA.  He was dominant in the PAC12 at Oregon. 

[Dawg83]

29 minutes ago, MSTSatchmo said:

200+ rushing with 7 yards per carry so far.   OM really doesn’t need a QB today.  Lol 

 

Clemson really didn’t pull away from Tech until the 4th quarter fwiw. 

Clemson is bad offensively, Ole Miss is not.

[Bulldogs4]

Close but no cigar. Two last second (and I mean last play) FG’s allow ucla and virginia to survive. But that is the name of the game.

Just win baby as Al Davis used to say. 

[MSTSatchmo]

11 minutes ago, Dawg83 said:

Clemson is bad offensively, Ole Miss is not.

Did you just say OM should be top 5!?