Dawg83 Posted October 6, 2021 Share Posted October 6, 2021 Off week for State but big game for Ole Miss, and several other interesting league games. OM-Arkansas is one of the more underrated series in the country. It feels like crazy junk happens in this game every year. Both teams appear to be on about the same level so I expect more craziness this year. I actually really like the matchup for Arkansas here. I don’t trust OM’s ability to stop the run and in spite of what happened in Athens, Arkansas is a dynamic running team with multiple guys that can really hurt you. On the other side of the ball, I think everyone remembers what happened with Corral in this game last year. I’m not expecting six more interceptions but I also think Arkansas is built well to contain OM’s offense. And I think OM’s lack of dynamic pass catchers hurts them again in this game. Should be a very good game but for whatever reason I feel fairly confident in my pick. Give me Arkansas, 38-31. I’ll happily be the first to admit I was wrong if Ole Miss wins comfortably. Bama-A&M felt more interesting before the season. Now it feels like a Bama blowout. Georgia-Auburn could MAYBE be close for a while, especially if Daniels is still out. But I am still expecting a double digit UGA win. I think LSU surprises Kentucky and steals a win in Lexington. UK is one of the weirdest 5-0 teams you’ll see, and they still will probably go on to win at least 8 or 9 games. I also am not high on this LSU team and think Orgeron is on his way out. But I think UK’s streak of winning ugly catches up to them and LSU is able to get a win here. Looking around nationally, I like Texas over Oklahoma and Iowa over Penn State. I was 0-3 on my upset picks last week, maybe this week will be better, but give me Nebraska over Michigan and Virginia Tech over Notre Dame. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bulldogs4 Posted October 6, 2021 Share Posted October 6, 2021 Interesting take there. I like Ole Miss over Arkansas because I think Arkansas is playing over the heads these days. They play hard and collectively as a team they are over achieving. Last week and again this week we will see that it has caught up to them. Ole Miss at home in an interesting game but they will win by 10-14 or more points when it is finished. I admitted I was wrong about both Arky and OM last week. This week OM gets the best of Arky and they fall back to earth for a while. I agree that LSU beats UK who has a decent team but are a weak 5-0 team and I see their bubble popping this week. UGA should beat Auburn but weird stuff happens at Auburn. In this case, I believe UGA will be comfortably in front for the most part and thus prevent the SEC refs (or any Auburn shenanigans) from affecting the outcome. Bama drills A&M 45-14. Texas over OK. Iowa over Penn St., ND beats VT and I hope Nebraska beats Michigan but just don’t see it happening this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rebmus Posted October 7, 2021 Share Posted October 7, 2021 Arkansas seems to have Ole Miss' number, I like Arkansas to cover and probably win. Orgeron is coaching for his job this week. Kentucky is the smart money pick, but I lean LSU pulls this one out. UGA is the pick to make. Auburn is taking a lot of heat from that Georgia State game (rightfully), but they aren't a bad team at all. Auburn will pick up some wins this year, but not against Georgia. Bama more- A&M less and I don't see it being close... Bama by 17 is my guess. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MSTSatchmo Posted October 8, 2021 Share Posted October 8, 2021 I’ll take OM at home by double digits. UK beat Florida worse than they did Chattanooga and S Carolina. I don’t know what that means, but I agree LSU wins. I think Auburn plays UGA tough for a little over a half, UGA pulls away in the end. Bama beats the brakes off A&M. Oklahoma, Iowa, VT and Michigan get the wins. Coastal Carolina is playing now, but just how good are they? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bulldogs4 Posted October 8, 2021 Share Posted October 8, 2021 Coastal Carolina & Liberty are both credibly good teams. Liberty dominated UAB in the opening game of their new stadium (stupid of UAB to schedule a quality opponent for that game). Both could and would be a tough out for most P5 teams in a one game scenario. They would each struggle to play a SEC schedule though. But in the overall picture it is kind of hard to gauge exactly how good each really is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rebmus Posted October 9, 2021 Share Posted October 9, 2021 Coastal is 6-0 which is very respectable. Their schedule has been kitty cat and doesn't get any stronger. I can see them going undefeated and not sniffing the top 10... the schedule is just so weak. Appalachian State is up next for Coastal, I would wager Appy State is the toughest team Coastal has faced all year or will face in the regular season. CC is definitely a good team, but I'm not sold they're even a top 25 team or not a top 25 team. Liberty did a decent job of scheduling this year to prove who they could be. Syracuse, Ole Miss, and Army (I said decent, not GREAT). IF Liberty had gone undefeated, I could have easily seen them in a NY6 bowl... but definitely not the playoffs. Liberty already lost to Syracuse and I can see them losing to Ole Miss or Army... maybe well both. Cincinnati is the G5 team to watch. Cincy is currently ranked #5 at 4-0 and a 45-3 lead over Temple in the 4th quarter. I think Cincy is over-ranked due to beating Notre Dame, but I can agree they deserve respect for that win. I think Cincy loses one along the way... maybe two. Navy and SMU will be decent tests. I kind of hope Cincy goes undefeated and makes the playoffs this year. It will finally shut up the whole "G5 doesn't get a fair shake" talk. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dawg83 Posted October 9, 2021 Author Share Posted October 9, 2021 Arkansas controlling the line of scrimmage early. They are basically running the old Relf Coast offense that State ran in Mullen’s first few years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MSTSatchmo Posted October 9, 2021 Share Posted October 9, 2021 This is why I lean more to the more explosive offense in close games. Arkansas is controlling the LOS, using long drives, and the game is still tied 14 all. Of course OM had a 17 play drive of their own, but they also have a 2 play drive, but at this point Arkansas has twice the TOP. Arkansas now has a turnover, which is killer in ball control offenses. You never want to get behind. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dawg83 Posted October 9, 2021 Author Share Posted October 9, 2021 Kiffin again with the 4th down craziness. Your defense gets a stop but Arkansas is able to tie it anyway because of the inexplicable 4th down call at your own 30. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dawg83 Posted October 9, 2021 Author Share Posted October 9, 2021 Both teams very susceptible to the run with the three man fronts they like to run. OM has been a little bit more disciplined at sticking to what has worked, I feel like Arkansas has gotten cute with their play calling at times. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hasbeen67 Posted October 9, 2021 Share Posted October 9, 2021 41 minutes ago, Dawg83 said: Both teams very susceptible to the run with the three man fronts they like to run. OM has been a little bit more disciplined at sticking to what has worked, I feel like Arkansas has gotten cute with their play calling at times. Yeah why throw at all when you're gaining 7-8 yards per run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dawg83 Posted October 9, 2021 Author Share Posted October 9, 2021 (edited) Great great game. Big win for OM. Both defenses were bad. Arkansas’s situational play calling lost them the game. Love the decision the go for two, brutal play call. Corral is special. Jefferson is a lot better than I thought he was. Two good teams that should both win around 8 games or maybe slightly more. Edited October 9, 2021 by Dawg83 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hasbeen67 Posted October 9, 2021 Share Posted October 9, 2021 (edited) This was the popcorn game Kiffin was looking for. Not just this game, but most of college football, the tackling and gap responsibility is worse than high school was 25-30 years ago. Arkansas' advantage would have been controlling the clock and limiting OM possessions. These modern day offenses play callers can't resist getting in a shootout. You shouldn't have a shootout if you're badly out-gunned. Edited October 9, 2021 by hasbeen67 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rebmus Posted October 9, 2021 Share Posted October 9, 2021 I'm glad Pittman went for two, I was having 7 overtime flashbacks for a minute there. Still plenty of games left, but Ole Miss has put themselves in a pretty nice position to possibly get a NY6 bowl. I'm not sold the D will slow down folks enough for Ole Miss to pull off 9 or 10 wins though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dawg83 Posted October 9, 2021 Author Share Posted October 9, 2021 Tennessee-Ole Miss next week is probably going to be another track meet. Vols have beaten up on some bad teams so I’m not totally buying that they are majorly improved, but obviously the OM defense still has big issues. Interesting game with letdown potential for OM based on where it is on the schedule. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bulldogs4 Posted October 9, 2021 Share Posted October 9, 2021 Good decision to go for two. Arkansas should have run the ball IMO. But what a game , heck of a second half. Ole Miss was due for some good fortune against Arkansas and some finally fell their way today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dawg83 Posted October 9, 2021 Author Share Posted October 9, 2021 Arkansas had 676 yards of total offense and lost the game. Sheesh man. But I guess Ole Miss would’ve felt the same way if that two point play had been good. I see both as 8-4ish teams right now. For OM you have a few teams left that run the ball well and that should be a concern. The Egg Bowl is the Egg Bowl and it’s in Starkville so that’s a toss up. You’ll probably crush LSU and Vandy. Arkansas still has to play Bama and they’ll probably lose at least one more somewhere. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rebmus Posted October 9, 2021 Share Posted October 9, 2021 No doubt 83, I said before this game that Arkansas' run game was a concern. Ole Miss HAS to keep the turnovers to a bare minimum if they want to win 9 regular season games. Lane seemed pretty pissed about the defense post game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dawg83 Posted October 9, 2021 Author Share Posted October 9, 2021 (edited) Overall I don’t know that Ole Miss is much different at all from where they were a year ago. Which is still a good team, but they put entirely too much pressure on the offense to be perfect. And look, Corral is probably good enough to carry you to several more wins, including some over decent teams. But until Ole Miss gets the defense fixed, and it hasn’t been in years, this is the ceiling for Ole Miss as a program. And oh by the way, Corral is gone after this year and QB’s with his ability don’t exactly grow on trees for State and Ole Miss. I still have the same long term concerns about Ole Miss that I’ve had for a while. But in the short term you have an elite playmaker at QB, enjoy that guy while you have him. Edited October 9, 2021 by Dawg83 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rebmus Posted October 9, 2021 Share Posted October 9, 2021 #10 BYU falls from the unbeaten teams by losing at home to Boise State. Syracuse took #19 Wake Forest to OT but WF took the win. #3 Iowa took care of #4 Penn State 23-20. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MSTSatchmo Posted October 9, 2021 Share Posted October 9, 2021 I wish I could have seen the OM/Arkansas game. Huge win for OM, and gutsy call on going for 2 by Pittman. I wouldn’t second guess that call at all based on the situation. Not only does it put OM in a good position for a NY6 game, but more if Bama were to stumble along the way. A lot of games left, and OM’s defense was thrashed today, but they will score with anyone. I also agree that no turnovers is huge. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
s1nglewing Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 43 minutes ago, MSTSatchmo said: I wish I could have seen the OM/Arkansas game. Huge win for OM, and gutsy call on going for 2 by Pittman. I wouldn’t second guess that call at all based on the situation. Not only does it put OM in a good position for a NY6 game, but more if Bama were to stumble along the way. A lot of games left, and OM’s defense was thrashed today, but they will score with anyone. I also agree that no turnovers is huge. Speaking of Alabama stumbling... early yet, but A&M is doing ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MSTSatchmo Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 I don’t know if Orgeron will last the whole season. UK may be undefeated, but dadgum. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rebmus Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 Just now, MSTSatchmo said: I don’t know if Orgeron will last the whole season. UK may be undefeated, but dadgum. O is toast, there is almost no chance he's back at LSU next year. The question is, like you said... will he be gone before the season ends? I'd wager that boils down to can LSU work out the right deal with O for him to take less than his current buyout and walk away peacefully. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MSTSatchmo Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 Looks like even Bama can have one of those nights. Saban said at the half they did nothing right the first half, and when they finally get momentum in the second, they give up a KO return TD. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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