College Baseball Season

[Dawg83]

2 hours ago, pancho said:

USM will now get sent to starkville regional?

I think they get sent to the lower seeded of the two MS sites which is probably Ole Miss. Still an outside chance they could host as a 2 probably. But man those two losses yesterday were brutal, it was all right there for the taking.

[Bulldogs4]

What a disastrous day for USM. La. Tech is a very good team but as you noted, that was brutal for Southern. 

 

As to where they go, I am not sure that they go to Starkvegas or Oxford. 
They could be sent to Knoxville or Gainesville potentially as well. I know geography/travel comes  in to play but one of those destinations is not out of the question IMO. 
 

In the big picture, blowing two leads is probably worse for your psyche than getting blown out two games like State did.  Obviously neither are desirable but for USM, the opportunity to host a regional just went down the drain. For State, overall seeding is now on shaky ground but I think it will easier to put that (the two blow out losses) behind you. 
 

Thankfully in the Regional, everybody starts 0-0. 

[rebmus]

D1 projections this morning had TCU moved into the #7 NS and MSU as the #8 NS. 

Ole Miss is the #10 seed, paired with TCU in a Super Regional and USM is projected in the Oxford Regional. 

 

 

[rebmus]

TCU won the Big 12 tourney today. It's not surprising at all Arkansas won the SECT today. 

[rebmus]

Hosts sites announced. (It was about an hour ago, but I don't see it posted). 

SEC

Arkansas, Tennessee, Vandy, MSU, Ole Miss, Florida, and South Carolina. 

Big 12

Texas, TCU, and Texas Tech.

Pac12

Arizona, Stanford, and Oregon.

ACC

Notre Dame

AAC

East Carolina

CUSA

Louisiana Tech

 

Seedings and who is in what regional will be announced tomorrow. 

The SEC tied a record with 7 host spots. 

 

[Dawg83]

Final predictions from me on selection day eve, let’s see how wrong I am tomorrow:

 

1. USM doesn’t get sent to Starkville or Oxford. My guess as of tonight would be Gainesville.

 

2. State and Texas Tech are both in the Top 8 and people blame it on John Cohen and Kirby Hocutt being on the committee. Because of this, either Notre Dame or Arizona isn’t in the Top 8.

 

3. Ole Miss is the 9 seed.

 

4. You’ll have an ACC team in both Starkville and Oxford

 

5. South Carolina is a hosting 2 seed, with Old Dominion as the 1.

 

6. LSU gets in the tournament, Georgia and Alabama do not.

[MSTSatchmo]

If an SEC doesn’t win the NC, who would y'all bet on winning it?   Early on State went 2-1 against the three Texas teams, OM went 3-0, and they aren’t even the top three SEC teams.  
 

It will be interesting to see how many SEC teams get potentially paired with each other in super regionals.  

[rebmus]

Just now, MSTSatchmo said:

If an SEC doesn’t win the NC, who would y'all bet on winning it?   Early on State went 2-1 against the three Texas teams, OM went 3-0, and they aren’t even the top three SEC teams.  
 

It will be interesting to see how many SEC teams get potentially paired with each other in super regionals.  

Outside the SEC, the Big12 hosts seems the smart choice. As you mentioned, MSU and OM went 5-1 vs these teams. Arkansas was also 3-0 vs these teams. 

I'll go with Notre Dame as a potential non SEC team winning it all. Stanford would be my second guess. 

 

 

[Dawg83]

8 hours ago, MSTSatchmo said:

If an SEC doesn’t win the NC, who would y'all bet on winning it?   Early on State went 2-1 against the three Texas teams, OM went 3-0, and they aren’t even the top three SEC teams.  
 

It will be interesting to see how many SEC teams get potentially paired with each other in super regionals.  

UCLA is my dark horse pick. Ranked very highly in the preseason, underachieved for most of the year, and is now starting to figure it out. They’re one of the teams nobody wants to see as a 2 seed in their Regional. I also think there are going to be some really dangerous 2 seeds out of the ACC and one or two of them may end up in Omaha.

 

Of the more notable teams, I agree with rebmus that the three Big 12 hosts and Stanford seem to be pretty good options. Depending on how the bracket shakes out I tend to think there may be an All SEC final though.

 

 

[Dawg83]

13 hours ago, Dawg83 said:

Final predictions from me on selection day eve, let’s see how wrong I am tomorrow:

 

1. USM doesn’t get sent to Starkville or Oxford. My guess as of tonight would be Gainesville.

 

2. State and Texas Tech are both in the Top 8 and people blame it on John Cohen and Kirby Hocutt being on the committee. Because of this, either Notre Dame or Arizona isn’t in the Top 8.

 

3. Ole Miss is the 9 seed.

 

4. You’ll have an ACC team in both Starkville and Oxford

 

5. South Carolina is a hosting 2 seed, with Old Dominion as the 1.

 

6. LSU gets in the tournament, Georgia and Alabama do not.

Well I went 2 for 6 but .333 is a pretty good batting average in baseball. Lol.

 

Ole Miss got a TOUGH draw. I can easily see OM, USM, or FSU winning that Regional. But I tend to think whoever survives makes it to Omaha. Not sold on Arizona as a Top 8, I could see them losing in their Regional.

 

State kinda got the best case scenario in all honesty. Not as much of a cakewalk as it seems on the surface, but you feel like if they can’t get through this path to Omaha then there’s no one but themselves to blame.

[Insideradvantage]

Tough field in Oxford. Weak field in Starkville. 

[Bulldogs4]

Extremely dangerous to say it is a weak field in Starkvegas. Samford destroyed us in a Regional a few years back. Don’t know much about VCU or Campbell but you don’t just fluke your way into a Regional. 
 

Florida State/USM are historically good programs but they tend to struggle finishing off the deal after they have set themselves up in good shape. 
 

On paper the regionals may look disparate but on the field it might be a whole different story. 
 

Rarely does anybody cakewalk through a Regional and overconfidence can humble you in an instance. 

[pancho]

remember tennessee tech

[rebmus]

3 hours ago, pancho said:

remember tennessee tech

Yep! 

It's the postseason, all of these teams are good. 

IF Ole Miss pitches like this past week, I like our chances. That's a big IF. 

 

[MSTSatchmo]

I just glanced over the brackets.  I don’t think any host SEC teams were paired up in super regionals.   That was a surprise to me.  

[rebmus]

Just now, MSTSatchmo said:

I just glanced over the brackets.  I don’t think any host SEC teams were paired up in super regionals.   That was a surprise to me.  

I was a tad surprised by that also. The seeding could have easily fallen to match up MSU/Vandy/Tennessee with Florida/Ole Miss/South Carolina in super regionals. 

 

ETA, looking over it again... it looks very improbable any SEC super regional matchup will happen. The only two possibilities that I see are:

Arkansas vs Alabama

Tennessee vs LSU. 

 

No offense to Bama or LSU fans, but I just don't see either one of them winning any regional. 

Edited May 31, 2021 by rebmus

[Dawg83]

Just saw a stat that the Starkville Regional has a higher average RPI than Oxford. Median RPI is about the same. I think it’s a sneaky tough Regional for State. Samford is one of the better 4 seeds in the tournament. VCU hasn’t lost a game since April 11th. Campbell had a good enough resume to get an at large bid so clearly they’re pretty good.

 

It reminds me a little of the 2018 OM-Tennessee Tech Regional or 2013 with State-Central Arkansas. Both of those regionals had three mid majors that the host should seemingly handle but once you dig a little deeper it could end up being far more challenging than you realize.

 

Curious to see how pitching is managed this weekend. If I was Lemonis I would go ahead and start MacLeod, just don’t see enough difference between the three other teams in the Regional to warrant saving him. Plus I’d rather throw Bednar in Game 2 no matter what. For OM, I know Bianco doesn’t usually hold his ace, but it’s gotta be a little tempting knowing who the 2 and 3 seeds are. Nikhazy is the best pitcher in the regional but I’m not sure USM and FSU don’t have better overall rotations than Ole Miss.

[rebmus]

Holding the ace is a great idea when it works, it's a bad idea when it doesn't work. 

I would stick with the normal rotation if I were Bianco. Since I'm not Bianco and his job is on the line for making these type decisions, his opinion means MUCH more than mine. Ha

[rebmus]

Diamond getting the Friday start vs SEMO. 

 

[Insideradvantage]

On 5/31/2021 at 1:12 PM, Bulldogs4 said:

Extremely dangerous to say it is a weak field in Starkvegas. Samford destroyed us in a Regional a few years back. Don’t know much about VCU or Campbell but you don’t just fluke your way into a Regional. 
 

Florida State/USM are historically good programs but they tend to struggle finishing off the deal after they have set themselves up in good shape. 
 

On paper the regionals may look disparate but on the field it might be a whole different story. 
 

Rarely does anybody cakewalk through a Regional and overconfidence can humble you in an instance. 

Granted anything can happen, and I know what the RPI folks argue, but there are three ranked teams in the Oxford Regional and just one (State of course) in the Starkville regional. Moreover, here are some interesting numbers from the three visitors in each of those regions: against Power 5 competition the three visitors in Oxford are a combined 24-23 while the three visitors in Starkville are a combined 3-12. But I suppose State earned this. No argument there. 

[Bulldogs4]

The other item that a coach may look at with regard to pitching is how the other team fared against certain types of pitchers. 
 

State & Ole Miss are different scenarios here. State’s 1&2 starters are solid but beyond that it is a crap shoot. 
 

Ole Miss, after losing Hoglund, was in a difficult situation but as usually happens, other guys have stepped up to the challenge. 
 

I think it will be an interesting weekend with some unexpected twists and turns throughout it. 

[Dawg83]

Looking a little closer at the matchup on Friday, starting to wonder if State might be best suited to start Bednar. Samford is very righty heavy and is ordinarily a good power hitting team, I'm not sure that is great news if you throw MacLeod (a lefty who is at times a fly ball pitcher). Maybe you can make a case for Fristoe or Harding but that seems risky given that your #3 starter spot has been a total crap shoot.

 

I still have no idea what to make of this Regional for State. Statistically speaking all three opponents have some impressive traits, but you may have to take some of it with a grain of salt given the competition levels. Samford did play SEC teams in the regular season but only went 1-9 against them with the one win being against a bad Auburn team. Campbell and VCU played in the 20th and 21st ranked RPI conferences.

 

If State shows up locked in they probably should be fine. But I do think the other teams have enough to ruin your season if you are sloppy once again. I do think State probably got a little bit of a gift with this Regional, but I think it's more at Tennessee's expense than it is OM's. And it's mostly just in who the 2 seeds are. Campbell and Samford are about what I expected for Starkville, VCU is a bit of a light 2 seed. I think if you swap Duke and VCU it's a bit more balanced overall. But as a State fan I won't lie, I'm glad that didn't happen. And I also think Ole Miss got a tougher draw too, but that makes more sense to me given that OM was a lower seeded host.

 

Granted, now that I've called VCU a light 2 seed watch them come into town and dominate the Regional.

Edited June 3, 2021 by Dawg83

[Dawg83]

Bednar officially named State's starter for Game 1. I think it's the safer move than MacLeod given the matchup. But MacLeod will have to pitch well against a good offense either way on Saturday.

[rebmus]

6 hours ago, Dawg83 said:

Bednar officially named State's starter for Game 1. I think it's the safer move than MacLeod given the matchup. But MacLeod will have to pitch well against a good offense either way on Saturday.

That's the thing about the first round of regionals, Game 1 and 2 are pretty interchangeable. IF a team doesn't win both of the 2 games, being in the loser's bracket is hard to overcome unless you're pretty deep. 

 

Ole Miss for example: 

OM wins the first two- Game 3 to win the series would be McDaniel vs the opposing #1 midweek pitcher. It's a good matchup for OM. Even if OM loses game 3 here, it's the #1 midweek guy vs the #2 midweek option by the opposing team. 

 

OM loses 1 of the first two- McDaniel is on the mound in the losers bracket to keep OM alive. OM should PROBABLY win this game, but then you have 2 more games to win starting midweek pitching vs the opposing #3 weekend starter. 

 

It's true for all regional teams, but especially OM after Hoglund is out. 

 

[Dawg83]

50 minutes ago, rebmus said:

That's the thing about the first round of regionals, Game 1 and 2 are pretty interchangeable. IF a team doesn't win both of the 2 games, being in the loser's bracket is hard to overcome unless you're pretty deep. 

 

Ole Miss for example: 

OM wins the first two- Game 3 to win the series would be McDaniel vs the opposing #1 midweek pitcher. It's a good matchup for OM. Even if OM loses game 3 here, it's the #1 midweek guy vs the #2 midweek option by the opposing team. 

 

OM loses 1 of the first two- McDaniel is on the mound in the losers bracket to keep OM alive. OM should PROBABLY win this game, but then you have 2 more games to win starting midweek pitching vs the opposing #3 weekend starter. 

 

It's true for all regional teams, but especially OM after Hoglund is out. 

 

If nothing else, at least OM got the trial run in Hoover of trotting out five different starters and having most of them do well. Not to say that would happen again in a Regional, but at least Bianco probably has a plan if it goes 4 or 5 games.

 

For State, no earthly idea what the plan would be if it went 4 or 5 games. I’m not even 100% sure what the plan is for Game 3. I’m pretty sure it involves Harding in some capacity, but not sure if that’s as a starter or long reliever. They most definitely have capable arms all over the roster, but finding more than a couple of starters has been a major challenge all year. Between Cerentola, Smith, and Fristoe, the fact that none of the three have been trustworthy as a starter has been a bit frustrating.