CFB Week 3 Thread

[Dawg83]

Huge game in Starkville on Saturday but also potentially notable games in Oxford and Hattiesburg.

 

I’ll start with State-LSU. Look, if anyone feels like they have the SEC West figured out right now then please fill me in, because I have no idea on any of the 7 teams. Seriously. Nobody has looked great so far if we are being honest. Different teams have different talent ceilings so you can probably project the general path of the season to an extent, but on a specific game by game basis, I feel like this season has more upset potential than usual.

 

All that to say, I do think State has a chance in this one, if the offense shows more balance like the whole world believes they should. Should be a good crowd and LSU has had some road struggles under Kelly, with a combo of head scratching losses and ugly wins. However, I tend to think LSU’s defensive front overpowers State, Daniels has a good day with his feet, and LSU wins by about 10. I’ll say LSU 27-17. But again, there is a path to a State win.

 

Ole Miss-Georgia Tech is more interesting to me than it probably is for most. It falls at an interesting spot for OM, sandwiched between a Tulane game everyone knew would be important and a trip to Tuscaloosa. GT has shown a good bit of improvement since these teams met a year ago and Ole Miss humiliated them. I think OM wins but 20 point favorites seems high to me. I’ll say OM wins something like 42-31.

 

Tulane at USM: remember that USM won this game a year ago in NOLA. Would be another huge win for Will Hall if he did it again. That said, I actually would have liked USM’s chances better if Tulane had beaten Ole Miss and this was a letdown spot. I also thought Tulane was very good at stopping OM’s running game and that may cause problems for USM. Give me Tulane 28-20.

 

Nationally, boy this is a pretty bare week. Gameday is going to Boulder for Colorado-Colorado State…. Cool I guess?

 

The only other remotely interesting SEC games to me are Tennessee-Florida, Kansas State-Mizzou, and SC-Georgia. But I kinda don’t know if any of those will be that close. Give me UT, K-State, and UGA all to cover and win.

[maroontide06]

During the press conference with Barbay he seemed to have acknowledged the play calling against Arizona and hopefully we will get to see some of that cleaned up.  I certainly don't feel comfortable projecting a State win by any means, but there's a path there for them to win.  They've just got to have some offensive balance and also outstanding secondary play.

[Dawg83]

2 hours ago, maroontide06 said:

During the press conference with Barbay he seemed to have acknowledged the play calling against Arizona and hopefully we will get to see some of that cleaned up.  I certainly don't feel comfortable projecting a State win by any means, but there's a path there for them to win.  They've just got to have some offensive balance and also outstanding secondary play.

It’s weird to me that Rogers threw it 29 times in a blowout against SE LA vs 17 times in an overtime win against Arizona. It felt like two entirely different offenses between Game 1 and 2. And difficult to say which one is who State truly is.

 

Don't get me wrong, this team is going to run the ball, and they should. Marks has been special through two games and you’ve got other good backs too.

 

But like, Kevin, don’t forget that you have a career 70% passer and one of the most talented groups of receivers this school has ever had.

[maroontide06]

18 minutes ago, Dawg83 said:

It’s weird to me that Rogers threw it 29 times in a blowout against SE LA vs 17 times in an overtime win against Arizona. It felt like two entirely different offenses between Game 1 and 2. And difficult to say which one is who State truly is.

 

Don't get me wrong, this team is going to run the ball, and they should. Marks has been special through two games and you’ve got other good backs too.

 

But like, Kevin, don’t forget that you have a career 70% passer and one of the most talented groups of receivers this school has ever had.

I just hope we don't see another offensive playcalling performance like we saw on Saturday.  I don't mind losing.  Heck, being a State fan I've endured a good bit of it LOL!  I just hope that the coaches learn from their mistakes and are able to call a better game against LSU.  I think the good thing is that Barbay isn't oblivious to his mistakes and knows how to make the necessary corrections (at least I hope so).

[maroontide06]

I will say this though.  If State wants a surefire way of beating LSU this weekend they might as well bite the bullet and bust out the interlock.  I mean it ain't got to be common knowledge or anything like that.  Like the old slogan back when we had Nike jerseys, "JUST DO IT".

[Dawg83]

30 minutes ago, maroontide06 said:

I will say this though.  If State wants a surefire way of beating LSU this weekend they might as well bite the bullet and bust out the interlock.  I mean it ain't got to be common knowledge or anything like that.  Like the old slogan back when we had Nike jerseys, "JUST DO IT".

After seeing State’s new uniforms in action for two games, can’t say I’m a big fan. The interlocking set they are wearing against Kentucky needs to be the full time look.

Edited September 12, 2023 by Dawg83

[maroontide06]

19 minutes ago, Dawg83 said:

After seeing State’s new uniforms in action for two games, can’t say I’m a big fan. The interlocking set they are wearing against Kentucky needs to be the full time look.

The script State is a baseball logo just like the M over S.  Why did it need to carry over into the other sports?  It certainly isn't ugly, but it's kinda in the same category as the Mississippi State banner logo to me.  I realize they've axed that logo, but the way I feel about that one is how I feel about the script State.  I guess it doesn't really do anything for me.  Like I don't want to go out and buy merchandise with that logo on it if that makes sense.  When I went to Campus Book Mart and The Lodge a few weeks ago, I wanted everything that had the Interlocking MSU on it.  I had to restrain myself LOL!

Edited September 12, 2023 by maroontide06

[Bulldogs4]

I have no idea what to think about LSU-State. LSU is a 10 point favorite and they may very well cover that but in general our games with LSU since 2013 have been close losses or wins (2019 excepted). We will see how it goes Saturday. Game is basically a sellout. I thought the crowd was great Saturday night against AZ. I will not be able to be there Saturday but hopefully the crowd can be our 12th man. 
LSU 28-24. 
 

GT-OM. What appeared to be a cake walk is shaping up to be potentially be a competitive game. It could similar to AZ-State but not an OT game. If OM lets them hang around it could be interesting. OM still wins 42-34. GT scores a late TD to make it look closer.

 

I am pulling for USM but if Tulane’s QB is back give me the Green Wave 28-16. If the second string QB plays then 21-19 will be the final in a heartbreaker for the Eagles. 
 

TN, CO, KSTATE, UGA all win. 

[maroontide06]

3 minutes ago, Bulldogs4 said:

GT-OM.

I had to do a double take.  This initially looked like something else LOL!

[Bulldogs4]

Now now, that is four letters but not a four letter word…LOL 

Edited September 12, 2023 by Bulldogs4

[MSTSatchmo]

I don’t think LSU/Daniels will turn the ball over 5 times, and Daniels seems to be at his best when he’s on the run, much like Arizona’s QB.   State will need to control the TOP to be in this game.  I don’t think it happens.  LSU 38 State 14 

 

GT blew the opener against Louisville.  OM should have the same type of success that Louisville had against GT.  They were pretty balanced running and passing.  
OM 42 GT 20 

 

Tulane impressed me against OM, and USM did not against a very good FSU team. 
Tulane 31 USM 21 

 

This is a terrible week for big matchups. I’m not sure why Gameday is in Colorado.  Colorado State sucks. Why not wait until USC visits?   
 

Georgia over SC in a close game. 
TN over Florida 

Does Texas have a let down against a Wyoming team that beat TX Tech?   I don’t think so.  

[rebmus]

The LSU/MSU should be a great game. I like MSU to hang in there but LSU to win. 

I'm rooting for USM, but picking Tulane. 

Ole Miss SHOULD win easily, I'm not sold on that. The offense really sputtered when Tre Harris went out last week, I'm interested to see how the offense looks this week without him. 

Florida/Tennessee. Us old folks remember when this was the YUGE game which determined the likely East champion and likely SEC champion. I'm picking UT to win but something keeps telling me to pick Florida for some reason. 

 

A couple of other potential good games: 

BYU at Arkansas (I'm picking BYU)

Kansas State at Missouri (I'm going with Kansas State).

 

[pancho]

State must keep the score relatively close and not fall behind by more than 10-12 points. I don't think it'll be pretty if they have to become a quick strike/catch back up type offense. I still don't have a read on this Ole Miss team yet but if they are as good as they claim, they better wallop this weak team from Atlanta.

[Dawg83]

Second week in a row where as we’ve gotten close to game time my general vibe has changed. Last week I started out thinking State big and talked myself into a close game, which it was. This week I started out thinking LSU big, but now I’m leaning toward close game where State might pull the upset.

 

No change on OM-GT, I think GT covers but OM wins.

 

I’m also feeling less sure about Tennessee in the Swamp. Are we totally sure we can trust Joe Milton yet? I don’t like this Florida team at all. But I feel like every year there’s at least one very good team that goes into Gainesville and really struggles. Last year it was Utah, two years ago it was Bama. If you’re looking for a potential upset pick, other than maybe State-LSU, this may be the one to watch. Tennessee’s last win in the Swamp was 20 years ago.

Edited September 15, 2023 by Dawg83

[Dawg83]

Bama is apparently making a QB change already to Notre Dame transfer Tyler Buchner.

 

I realize that Milroe struggled last week… but I watched Buchner at ND… that guy’s not the answer either. Unless he has totally changed his stripes.

[maroontide06]

@Dawg83it's funny you mention how you feel about the State-LSU game because I feel like I was on that same brain wave LOL.  I still feel like LSU will probably win, but State can definitely win the thing.  I don't see State going out there and laying an egg if that's any consolation.

 

I didn't realize that it's been 20 years since Tennessee last won in The Swamp.  When did The Swamp become a dumpster?  I realize that stadium has been unchanged for a long time, but it really looks like the ugly duckling of stadiums in the SEC.

[maroontide06]

3 minutes ago, Dawg83 said:

Bama is apparently making a QB change already to Notre Dame transfer Tyler Buchner.

 

I realize that Milroe struggled last week… but I watched Buchner at ND… that guy’s not the answer either. Unless he has totally changed his stripes.

Alabama in panic mode?  I never thought we'd see this under Saban.

[Dawg83]

2 hours ago, maroontide06 said:

@Dawg83it's funny you mention how you feel about the State-LSU game because I feel like I was on that same brain wave LOL.  I still feel like LSU will probably win, but State can definitely win the thing.  I don't see State going out there and laying an egg if that's any consolation.

 

I didn't realize that it's been 20 years since Tennessee last won in The Swamp.  When did The Swamp become a dumpster?  I realize that stadium has been unchanged for a long time, but it really looks like the ugly duckling of stadiums in the SEC.

They haven’t done a good job of keeping up in the facilities arms race in football. Ironically they’ve upgraded their basketball/gymnastics and baseball venues but not done much to the Swamp. Don’t know if that’s a Stricklin thing or what the deal is. It always does look a little odd on TV though, doesn’t it?

 

2 hours ago, maroontide06 said:

Alabama in panic mode?  I never thought we'd see this under Saban.

Only time I can remember Saban doing something like this was the 2015 Ole Miss game when he panic started Cooper Bateman for one game and it got them beat.

 

As weird as this is to say, I think Bama’s biggest problem is their players simply aren’t the same caliber as we are accustomed to. Where is the star power on this team? The QB issues are obvious but they have won with so-so QB’s, I don’t think the RB’s and WR’s are on the same level as usual either, though. It’s still highly recruited guys, but they are lacking the alpha dogs they’ve had since basically Saban’s second or third year.

[Unionman76]

saban complained about not having the NIL money to compete in todays college football

[Dawg83]

39 minutes ago, Unionman76 said:

saban complained about not having the NIL money to compete in todays college football

The portal is definitely hurting them more than it’s helping. They don’t have near the quality depth that they once had.

[Bulldogs4]

I went to see the State-Florida game in Gainesville in 2010. Last time we played there thanks to the SEC scheduling geniuses. 
 

I was not impressed with the campus or the stadium for that matter. We stayed with some friends that live in GNV. We had a great weekend and thoroughly enjoyed ourselves. Though we did most of our partying at our friends home and just went to the game a little early and walked around campus for a while before going into the stadium. We were harassed a good bit since we were State fans. People are not nearly as friendly there as they are at State. 
 

Of course winning the game was the icing on the cake. It was very enjoyable walking out of the Swamp as the winner. Florida fans were not nearly as arrogant then. 
 

All that to say that there seems to be a voodo hex over UT when they play Florida as UF has dominated the series over the last 30 years. So I will not be surprised if the Gators pull the upset. 

[MSTSatchmo]

8 hours ago, Dawg83 said:

Bama is apparently making a QB change already to Notre Dame transfer Tyler Buchner.

 

I realize that Milroe struggled last week… but I watched Buchner at ND… that guy’s not the answer either. Unless he has totally changed his stripes.

Maybe the players around him at Bama will make him look like a new QB.   Of course if that was the case, he probably would have started earlier. 

[MSTSatchmo]

I agree that the portal has hurt Bama’s depth.  They don’t seem to have the dominant OL and defense they used to have.  Of course they have. A few very good players at spots, but they used to have an entire defense with 1st round talent.  

[MSTSatchmo]

Will the OM lawsuit have any affect on Kiffin?  They should be able to handle GT this week, but they have a tough stretch coming up.  
The Auburn situation last year seemed to have an affect on Kiffin, so maybe he’s learned how to focus on the upcoming games.  
The whole thing is a player looking for easy money in my opinion.  

[Dawg83]

1 hour ago, MSTSatchmo said:

Will the OM lawsuit have any affect on Kiffin?  They should be able to handle GT this week, but they have a tough stretch coming up.  
The Auburn situation last year seemed to have an affect on Kiffin, so maybe he’s learned how to focus on the upcoming games.  
The whole thing is a player looking for easy money in my opinion.  

It’s a weird deal.  I think there are definitely some things about it you can question, but there are legitimately some not great optics on the OM side. The assistant AD recommending that he step away from football, then the transcript of the Kiffin conversation doesn’t make LK look great, and then Ole Miss boasting about their new mental health program not long after all of this allegedly took place.

 

I don’t think it will have the same impact as Kiffin’s job shopping, I think OM will be largely distraction free until the job shopping starts again if/when the A&M and Florida jobs open up in the next 60 days-ish.