Rivalry Week Thread

[Dawg83]

Huge huge week on several fronts so let’s open this thing up.

 

Egg Bowl - every time you think the result of this game is predictable and obvious, weirdness ensues. So thanks for that, Lane. I do think this has track meet potential. It may not get to that point if State’s OL takes the day off again. But State does have explosive enough playmakers to score on OM. The obvious issue for State though is a disaster of a run defense trying to stop an RB in Lacy who is playing as well as any RB in the country right now. I also think the ability of Chambliss to scramble is an issue, too. A week ago I think I would have picked Ole Miss by 3-4 touchdowns. Now, with all the distractions of this week, and with the thought that distracted coaches don’t fare well in Egg Bowls and this game was closer the last two years than it should’ve been….. I still don’t think I can pull the trigger on picking State, especially if Lebby is bound and determined to go down with the Shapen ship. But I do expect it to be close for a while, as both teams have a knack for ending up in close games. But I think OM is simply better on both sides of the ball and they are clearly the safe pick here. Ole Miss 38, State 26

 

Georgia vs Georgia Tech - this game went to eight overtime’s last year. But GT has a terrible defense and UGA has an offense that’s surgical right now. UGA may be playing better than anyone in the country the last 3 weeks. The other Dogs win this one by double digits. Side note, this game is being played in MB Stadium instead of on GT’s campus…. What are you doing, Tech? Why ship your biggest home game of the year off campus?

 

Texas A&M at Texas - a win for A&M and they are on to Atlanta for the first time. A&M has benefited mightily from their SEC schedule but they are still a legit playoff team. Also, the way to exploit A&M is by running the ball and Texas isn’t very good at that. I have the Aggies winning and playing for a league title next week.

 

Bama at Auburn - Uh oh, we all know how weird Iron Bowls at Jordan Hare can get. Auburn just made the switch to George County’s own Deuce Knight and it may have only been Mercer but he had a far more interesting performance than any other Bama QB this year. Could be wrong on this but I believe DJ Durkin may be coaching for the permanent gig in this game. He beats Bama and he’s gets the job. And you know what, I think I’m going to pull the trigger on it. Auburn with the home upset. I just have trust issues with these DeBoer Bama teams right now, and this is his first trip to the Plains. So if my prediction on this game and the A&M game are correct, the SECCG would be A&M vs Georgia and Bama would be out of the Playoff.

 

Vandy at Tennessee: Huge game that Vandy must win for any outside playoff chances. Honestly this may end up being the best game of the weekend. I think I’m going to take Vandy here. They play a very specific way where they ball control and take advantage of mistakes, and Tennessee is a mistake prone team. I don’t know if a win here enough to put Vandy in the Playoff, they’d need help elsewhere still. But I think they can at least make it interesting.

 

LSU at Oklahoma: Bad matchup for LSU, and MVB ain’t it. Oklahoma wins at home in probably another ugly game, but that’s the OU way this year.

 

There are plenty of other rivalry games too and we may end up discussing some of them, but those are the bigger ones in the SEC. Did want to add one particular non-SEC game.

 

Ohio State at Michigan - This is a way more dangerous spot for Ohio State than people are acknowledging at the moment. I mean it’s an arch rival that OSU has last to four years in a row, and it’s in Ann Arbor. OSU has also played absolutely nobody since that Week 1 Texas game  And Michigan is very much alive for a Playoff spot if they can win this. I still lean OSU because I think their defense is great and not sure I trust Ohio State to do much against it. But watch out for this one, could shake up the Playoff dynamic in.a big way.

Edited November 23, 2025 by Dawg83

[MSTSatchmo]

What are the scenarios for the SECCG?    I believe of Bama and A&M win they’re in?
 

 I think we will have four 7-1 teams.  I’m picking Texas to upset A&M.  Not sure who goes in that scenario.  

[rebmus]

Just now, MSTSatchmo said:

What are the scenarios for the SECCG?    I believe of Bama and A&M win they’re in?
 

 I think we will have four 7-1 teams.  I’m picking Texas to upset A&M.  Not sure who goes in that scenario.  

If A&M loses, it's Bama vs UGA... assuming Bama beats Auburn. 

If Bama and A&M both lose? I'm not sure who goes between A&M/UGA/Ole Miss (assuming Ole Miss beat State. 

 

 

[pancho]

hope for pure chaos

[s1nglewing]

1 hour ago, rebmus said:

If A&M loses, it's Bama vs UGA... assuming Bama beats Auburn. 

If Bama and A&M both lose? I'm not sure who goes between A&M/UGA/Ole Miss (assuming Ole Miss beat State. 

 

 

If Auburn, Texas, and Ole Miss win - Ole Miss gets a rematch with Georgia.

[Dawg83]

3 hours ago, MSTSatchmo said:

What are the scenarios for the SECCG?    I believe of Bama and A&M win they’re in?
 

 I think we will have four 7-1 teams.  I’m picking Texas to upset A&M.  Not sure who goes in that scenario.  

Bama and A&M are win and in

 

Georgia just needs one of them to lose and they’re in.

 

OM needs a win plus losses by both A&M and Bama.

 

Believe OM could only play Georgia if they made it to Atlanta. Don’t think there’s a scenario to OM playing A&M or Bama.

 

We won’t know for sure who is going until late Saturday as the Iron Bowl is a Saturday night game this year.

[Bulldogs4]

Ole Miss @ State. Agree with you here. As I said last week, one team has won games by making plays and avoiding crucial mistakes/penalties and one team has lost games by committing crucial penalties/mistakes. While State may play inspired football, Ole Miss wins 35-28. 
 

Bama @ Auburn. Not sold on Alabama being able to win this game. Auburn’s defense is good enough to slow Bama down. I will agree here, Auburn wins an ugly game. 23-21.

Jawja by a bunch over Tech. Agree it was a stupid decision to move this game off campus.

Georgia 52, Tech 24.

 

Vandy @ Tennessee. Gotta keep riding the Dore train. Vandy out toughs Tenner for the win.

35-24.

 

A&M @ Texas. Texas has lucked its way to more than a couple wins this year. Luck runs out this week. A&M throttles the horns. A&M 27, TX 13. 

 

Oklahoma 28, LSU 3. Red Stick tigers have mailed it in for the season. 
 

Florida 22, Free Shoes 21

USC 30, Clemson 24

KY 35, Louieville 16

 

Ohio State exorcises the Michigan demon this year convincingly. Michigan may be 9-2 but they are a mediocre 9-2. Ohio State 34, Michigan 10.

Ohio State may have played a crappy schedule but they are still very good and a better team than Michigan. 
 

USM and Troy. If Braxton Braylon plays, Eagles win a shootout 38-31.

If he does not play, Eagles lose big. 45-17. 

 

 

 

[Dawg83]

Don’t know who’s winning the game but I’m declaring State the winner of the uniform battle. That may be the worst OM uni combo I’ve ever seen.

 

Keep it simple, stupid.

Edited November 27, 2025 by Dawg83

[DrownInEtown]

Rivalry Week makes for hard predictions 

 

OM -7.5 @ State: I just can’t visualize a scenario where Ole Miss can’t run the ball and control this game. If State wasn’t completely inept defensively I’d take us with all the drama going on. Hoping this to be the best atmosphere all year in Starkville. And that’s a tough task because Arizona State and Texas were electric. But I just can’t pick State to win this game.
Ole Miss 28 - State 20

 

Georgia -13.5 @ Ga Tech: This will look like the Georgia - Miss State game IMO. Ga tech has some ballers on the offensive side of the ball and they will score. But they may be worse off than State defensively. Georgia is one of the hottest teams atm. 42-28 Georgia

A&M -2.5 @ Texas: A&M showed they can collapse against Scar. If they collapse against Texas there’s no coming back. Arch is balling right now. It’s hard to go undefeated in this era in the SEC. I think this is that game where A&M stumbles

Texas 42 Texas A&M 30

 

Bama -5.5 @ Auburn: this has black magic written all over it. Auburn has the talent to win this game. They’re better off with Duece Knight but I think Daniel’s is starting. That hurts them. I think Bama stays down in this game until the 4th and come back to win 24-17

 

Vandy @ Tenn -2.5: this is the toughest game to pick IMO. Expect a shootout. Give me Tenn 42 Vandy 35

 

LSU @ OU -10.5: MVB has been struggling and now he’s facing arguably a top 3 defense. Don’t see a path of victory for LSU here. 
OU 24 - LSU 10

 

Ohio State -9.5 @ Michigan: This game is always one of the strangest. I think Ryan Day lets his ego get involved and plays into Michigans style of play. If he would just turn this into a track meet I think he wins last years game and dominates this one. Michigan will not score 20 on this defense. I can’t pick against Ohio State this year.

Ohio State 30- Michigan 14

Edited November 27, 2025 by DrownInEtown

[Bulldogs4]

Game day is here. Ole Miss should win this game comfortably. But having attended 20+ of these games in person and watching another 20+ on TV, I know very well anything can happen.

 

1964-State having not beaten OM in 17 years pulls out a 20-17 win in Oxford. That was the first ever televised game (Nationally on NBC).

1981-OM heavy underdogs wins on the last play of the game 21-17 after a very bogus PI call on State in the end zone (flag was thrown well after the State DB intercepted the pass and he had inside position on the play). But the game should have never been that close in the first place.

1983-Immaculate Deflection. I was there. Still can’t believe it today. OM 24, State 23. 
1991-Game returned to campus. Sleepy Robinson show as State beat OM in Starkvegas for the first time since 1942, 24-9.

1992-The Stand. OM stopped State at goal line multiple times to win 17-10. 

1998-State wins 28-6 in Oxford to win the West and a trip to ATL. 
1999-Tip, Kick and Pick leads to improbable comeback as State wins 23-20 after being down 14 in the fourth quarter.

2007-The infamous 4th and 1. thanks Ed game. OM up 14-0 and dominating the game. Instead of punting at midfield, decides to go for it and then rest is history. 17-14 State. 
2012-State with a chance to win 4 straight completely lays an egg and OM crushes State 41-24. 
2014-OM knocks State out of the playoff with a 31-17 win. 
2016-Fitzgerald goes wild and State crushes OM 55-20.

2017- A somewhat parallel to this year. Mullen has his team flat, Fitzgerald suffers a gruesome injury and OM wins 31-28. 
2019-Piss & Miss game. Neither team wins. OM loses the game and State does not lose the game.

 

2025-Story to be told later today. We will see what happens. 

 

[Unionman76]

My wife cried at the hand of god game 

[Dawg83]

Congrats to OM on your home playoff game. The most likely outcome today is what played out.

 

Kamario Taylor is a special talent.

 

Jeff Lebby needs to replace about 75% of his staff or he can leave the building, too.

[NoWammies]

LSU just called Kiffin and Miami called KT’s dad. 

[Dawg83]

When Dan Mullen was driving Ole Miss fans crazy, OM fans did anything and everything in their power to flip the script…. It turns out they maybe went a little overboard in the end, but point is they didn’t sit there and take it. And Mullen lost 4 of his last 6 EB’s after starting 3-0.

 

Kiffin has owned State and State people are doing…. What, exactly? Wishing upon a star Kiffin will leave? I got news for everyone in administration in Starkville, Lane Kiffin is only about 5 to 10% of why your football program has been in hell for the last 3 years. You’ve got a world of things to fix first before we realistically entertain that discussion.

 

Let me put it like this…. Kiffin could leave tomorrow, Ole Miss could immediately regress as a program, and there’s still a very realistic chance State isn’t good enough to beat a lesser Ole Miss consistently. That’s how bad the program has been allowed to get at State.

 

2-22 in SEC play the last 3 years, 1-15 under the current coach. Get your crap together or don’t bother pretending to be an SEC football program that takes football seriously.

Edited November 28, 2025 by Dawg83

[NoWammies]

Serious question. Why doesn’t State fans put Lebby in the same category as Arnett? They’ve basically done the same yet Lebby was given more time. Some State fans I’m around make Arnett seem like he’s the guy to blame for where y’all are at now. 

[Dawg83]

1 hour ago, NoWammies said:

Serious question. Why doesn’t State fans put Lebby in the same category as Arnett? They’ve basically done the same yet Lebby was given more time. Some State fans I’m around make Arnett seem like he’s the guy to blame for where y’all are at now. 

They pretty much do at this point. There are not many State people happy with Lebby at the moment. I get that the team improved from 2024 but going from 0-8 in the SEC to 1-7 in the SEC (with the one win being over soon to be 2-10 Arkansas)…. That’s not gonna move the needle for most.

 

I have not had that experience with people still blaming Arnett. I don’t really agree with that take anyway, Arnett was part of the issue but he was ultimately one guy in a tough spot in a position he wasn’t prepared for. The recruiting was trending in the wrong direction even before the Arnett year happened.

 

You can’t blame State being what they are on just one person. It’s a combination of poor leadership from multiple coaches, the former AD (TBD on the current AD, we’ll see if Lebby works out), and then the untimely passing of Leach.

 

But going into Year 3 and very much in the portal era, it’s 100% on Lebby now. No excuses if they are still bad in 2026. I kinda think that needs to be a 7 or 8 win team or else it’s time to move on.

 

I would argue the biggest thing working in the favor Lebby getting more time right now is the unreal volatility State had at head coach after Mullen left. I don’t think State wants to be firing a coach within two years for the third time since 2019.

Edited November 29, 2025 by Dawg83

[Dawg83]

Texas about to upset A&M…. Meaning Ole Miss is one Iron Bowl upset away from playing Georgia in Atlanta.

[Insideradvantage]

I just don't think I want OM in Atlanta. 

[s1nglewing]

9 minutes ago, Insideradvantage said:

I just don't think I want OM in Atlanta. 

Go Auburn!

[Dawg83]

11 minutes ago, Insideradvantage said:

I just don't think I want OM in Atlanta. 

I would maybe get that if a team were 10-2 and the playoff situation were iffy. But at 11-1 and a playoff lock, man I think I’d want my team playing for a conference championship if it’s on the table.

 

Of course my team can’t even qualify for a Birmingham Bowl invite the last 3 years so these mental debates are not applicable to me in the least. I live in misery while some of you fine folks get to have all the fun

[pancho]

I guess this will now delay the carousel since Lane is still the HC and would fully expect to still be the HC next saturday in Atlanta.

[Bulldogs4]

13 hours ago, Dawg83 said:

They pretty much do at this point. There are not many State people happy with Lebby at the moment. I get that the team improved from 2024 but going from 0-8 in the SEC to 1-7 in the SEC (with the one win being over soon to be 2-10 Arkansas)…. That’s not gonna move the needle for most.

 

I have not had that experience with people still blaming Arnett. I don’t really agree with that take anyway, Arnett was part of the issue but he was ultimately one guy in a tough spot in a position he wasn’t prepared for. The recruiting was trending in the wrong direction even before the Arnett year happened.

 

You can’t blame State being what they are on just one person. It’s a combination of poor leadership from multiple coaches, the former AD (TBD on the current AD, we’ll see if Lebby works out), and then the untimely passing of Leach.

 

But going into Year 3 and very much in the portal era, it’s 100% on Lebby now. No excuses if they are still bad in 2026. I kinda think that needs to be a 7 or 8 win team or else it’s time to move on.

 

I would argue the biggest thing working in the favor Lebby getting more time right now is the unreal volatility State had at head coach after Mullen left. I don’t think State wants to be firing a coach within two years for the third time since 2019.

Arnett and Lebby are two different universes as far as State is concerned.

Leaving emotions aside after getting beat by your rival, this is my take on this year. 
The 4-0 start including the big win over Arizona State gave the team confidence and we were clearly better than last year (albeit with some weaknesses). 
The Tennessee game let us know that we could compete with the better SEC teams even though we lost it in OT. But it was small chip in the armor. 
The Florida game was a big crack in the armor of our confidence though I put that more on the HC for a poor play call at the end. 
The Texas game finished us off. Here we play our best three quarters of the season only to see it unravel in the fourth quarter. One costly penalty (late hit on Arch) cost us that game and the season for all practical purposes. 
Our mental confidence was gone. All the good vibes from September had evaporated.
Yes we beat Arkansas but that was more about them self destructing than anything else. 
Then these last three games, we got whipped across the board. 

 

In summation I give this season a C. Three more wins than last year. A big win over Arizona State. Three very competitive losses against quality SEC teams. 
But there is a lot of work ahead to move the needle upward. OL & DL need serious overhauls. 
With Taylor at QB, we have a chance to build a great offense around him. 
The defense had some bright spots this year but in these recent games our run defense has been porous. I don’t think the coaching has necessarily been bad but you have to have quality players to execute any defense. 
 

One last word on yesterday. Ole Miss was the team that had the perfect balance between confidence and execution. They made the big plays at the right time. We played hard but our confidence was not in sync with our execution. 
They were the better team. KT did some good things and the future is bright there. But we have got to build around him to make it happen. 
 

And if Kiffin leaves, karma is going to bite him in the butt. He has a good thing and he is going to leave to go to a cess pool? 

[Dawg83]

19 minutes ago, Bulldogs4 said:

Arnett and Lebby are two different universes as far as State is concerned.

Leaving emotions aside after getting beat by your rival, this is my take on this year. 
The 4-0 start including the big win over Arizona State gave the team confidence and we were clearly better than last year (albeit with some weaknesses). 
The Tennessee game let us know that we could compete with the better SEC teams even though we lost it in OT. But it was small chip in the armor. 
The Florida game was a big crack in the armor of our confidence though I put that more on the HC for a poor play call at the end. 
The Texas game finished us off. Here we play our best three quarters of the season only to see it unravel in the fourth quarter. One costly penalty (late hit on Arch) cost us that game and the season for all practical purposes. 
Our mental confidence was gone. All the good vibes from September had evaporated.
Yes we beat Arkansas but that was more about them self destructing than anything else. 
Then these last three games, we got whipped across the board. 

 

In summation I give this season a C. Three more wins than last year. A big win over Arizona State. Three very competitive losses against quality SEC teams. 
But there is a lot of work ahead to move the needle upward. OL & DL need serious overhauls. 
With Taylor at QB, we have a chance to build a great offense around him. 
The defense had some bright spots this year but in these recent games our run defense has been porous. I don’t think the coaching has necessarily been bad but you have to have quality players to execute any defense. 
 

One last word on yesterday. Ole Miss was the team that had the perfect balance between confidence and execution. They made the big plays at the right time. We played hard but our confidence was not in sync with our execution. 
They were the better team. KT did some good things and the future is bright there. But we have got to build around him to make it happen. 
 

And if Kiffin leaves, karma is going to bite him in the butt. He has a good thing and he is going to leave to go to a cess pool? 

If you had offered me 5-7 for State before the year, I think I would’ve taken it? But how they got there was different and more frustrating than most expected  I think the general view was they weren’t talented enough to beat most teams on their schedule. That was true in some instances, but not being able to finish off the Tennessee, Florida, or Texas games was really frustrating and not a result of talent. Find a way to win just one of those and you are in a bowl game. But State somehow managed to lose all three.

 

The other part of it is, it felt like the team got worse as the season went on. This was not the same team after the Texas loss. Even when they beat Arkansas, they did not look very good doing so. But you got your first SEC win and most thought that the team would be able to build on that… yet they actually played their worst ball of the season in the last three games.

 

I agree wholeheartedly that Kamario is an outstanding piece to build around. But you got A LOT of building to do around him. On the OL and the entire defense.

 

I don’t think there is a good justification for Coleman Hutzler keeping his job as DC, and with that I’d probably move on from a few position coaches too. When Lebby assembled his staff two years ago, it felt a bit underwhelming, and an iffy staff is enough to sink an otherwise solid coach. Well, that’s the point we are kinda getting to here. I see the upside with Lebby and his offense, but he’s gotta get his staff fixed or else he can’t succeed here.

 

I would go get Ron Roberts as your DC and call it a day. He’s a veteran presence that has been a quality DC in the SEC the last few years, has head coaching experience at the FCS and D2 level, and I presume is currently in need of a job since he was on Napier’s UF staff. Go make that happen and start getting your defense back to being competitive. It was virtually nonexistent for the last third of the season. 

[Bulldogs4]

I was not saying that keeping Hutzler would be the right decision. Making a change there would certainly be appropriate as I think our Defense needs a complete overhaul and starting with a new coordinator would be hopefully get us going in the right direction. 
At the end of the day the DC is responsible but we just did not have the horses to be a dominant defense this year. 

[Dawg83]

It’s both. They did not have enough talent, especially once Whitson got hurt and with Isaac Smith missing time periodically. But the talent they had was also not coached particularly well.

 

What Georgia, Mizzou, and Ole Miss did to State’s defense can’t happen. That was embarrassing.