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CFB Week 4 Thread

Dawg83

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Dawg83 All American

Dawg83

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A bit of a “calm before the storm” week this  weekend, though that can often be when you see some bizarre results happen.

 

Ole Miss -11.5 vs Tulane - this is a sneaky dangerous game for OM, Tulane has already beaten two P4 teams convincingly. Granted not teams on OM’s level, but still. It’s also a bit of a letdown-look ahead sandwich right in the middle of Arkansas and LSU. I kinda see this going like the game in NOLA a couple of years ago, i.e. it’s really tight for about 60-75% of the game and then OM pulls away late. I like OM 41-24, but maybe it’s 27-24 after 3 quarters or something like that.

 

State -21 vs NIU - Does the MACtion get State for a second year in a row? Probably not. But don’t think there aren’t plenty of State people sweating this one. NIU beat Notre Dame a year ago, and that’s a concern; playing in an SEC stadium won’t overwhelm them I can’t imagine. At the same time, this NIU team has been very bad offensively so far, and I think State should be able to just outscore them. I think I will take NIU to cover because I think State is looking ahead to the Tennessee game and given the 3:15 kickoff I don’t think there will be much energy in the stadium, but I still have State winning something like 31-13. For some reason I see this being kind of an ugly win for State.

 

Arkansas -7.5 at Memphis - another trap game scenario and I’m taking Memphis to win here. There is something about that stadium for big Memphis home games that makes it tough to win in recently. State and OM fans know this well.

 

Auburn -6.5 at Oklahoma - I love this matchup and have been impressed with both teams so far, think this will be a great game. I have Auburn covering but OU winning by 3 or 4.

 

SC at Mizzou -11.5 - if sellers is out I think Mizzou wins easily. If Sellers plays I still like Mizzou but closer. For some reason this is taking me back to State vs Arkansas 2022 with the KJ Jefferson injury situation.

 

Florida at Miami -7.5 - this will either make me look very smart or very dumb… give me the Gators outright on the road. Call it a trust thing with Cristobal…. I feel like he loses in these kind of games often. We are also getting close to the point of no return with Napier so I wonder if his team has a last stand in them.

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Vott All American

Vott

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58 minutes ago, Dawg83 said:

A bit of a “calm before the storm” week this  weekend, though that can often be when you see some bizarre results happen.

 

Ole Miss -11.5 vs Tulane - this is a sneaky dangerous game for OM, Tulane has already beaten two P4 teams convincingly. Granted not teams on OM’s level, but still. It’s also a bit of a letdown-look ahead sandwich right in the middle of Arkansas and LSU. I kinda see this going like the game in NOLA a couple of years ago, i.e. it’s really tight for about 60-75% of the game and then OM pulls away late. I like OM 41-24, but maybe it’s 27-24 after 3 quarters or something like that.

 

State -21 vs NIU - Does the MACtion get State for a second year in a row? Probably not. But don’t think there aren’t plenty of State people sweating this one. NIU beat Notre Dame a year ago, and that’s a concern; playing in an SEC stadium won’t overwhelm them I can’t imagine. At the same time, this NIU team has been very bad offensively so far, and I think State should be able to just outscore them. I think I will take NIU to cover because I think State is looking ahead to the Tennessee game and given the 3:15 kickoff I don’t think there will be much energy in the stadium, but I still have State winning something like 31-13. For some reason I see this being kind of an ugly win for State.

 

Arkansas -7.5 at Memphis - another trap game scenario and I’m taking Memphis to win here. There is something about that stadium for big Memphis home games that makes it tough to win in recently. State and OM fans know this well.

 

Auburn -6.5 at Oklahoma - I love this matchup and have been impressed with both teams so far, think this will be a great game. I have Auburn covering but OU winning by 3 or 4.

 

SC at Mizzou -11.5 - if sellers is out I think Mizzou wins easily. If Sellers plays I still like Mizzou but closer. For some reason this is taking me back to State vs Arkansas 2022 with the KJ Jefferson injury situation.

 

Florida at Miami -7.5 - this will either make me look very smart or very dumb… give me the Gators outright on the road. Call it a trust thing with Cristobal…. I feel like he loses in these kind of games often. We are also getting close to the point of no return with Napier so I wonder if his team has a last stand in them.

Give a bonus pick with the So Miss at La Tech

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Dawg83 All American

Dawg83

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4 hours ago, Vott said:

Give a bonus pick with the So Miss at La Tech

Happy to.

 

Love the win for USM against App State, that was really impressive. Vegas thinks this is a really close game, LA Tech only a 3.5 point home favorite. I don’t know much about LA Tech other than they didn’t embarrass themselves against LSU. Coin toss of a game, I will ride with USM to keep the good vibes going on the basis of I think they have the superior head coach and QB situation between the two teams. Sonny Cumbie’s only accomplishment as a head coach was beating a COVID-riddled State team in the Liberty Bowl when he was the interim at Texas Tech, otherwise he has done jack diddly squat in Ruston.

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DrownInEtown

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13 minutes ago, Dawg83 said:

Down goes Arkansas, and Memphis takes down another SEC team at the Liberty Bowl. What a choke. Blew a 28-10 lead and gave up just under 300 yards rushing in the process. 

Tough situation for Sam Pittman. Already on the hot seat and then you’re 2 fluke plays from beating Ole Miss and a tough Memphis team in their own stadiums. Now the rest of your schedule is just misery and despair 

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Dawg83 All American

Dawg83

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7 minutes ago, DrownInEtown said:

Tough situation for Sam Pittman. Already on the hot seat and then you’re 2 fluke plays from beating Ole Miss and a tough Memphis team in their own stadiums. Now the rest of your schedule is just misery and despair 

It’s a fluke when it happens once. It’s not a fluke the second time. And Arkansas still had every chance to get the ball back and win the game even after the fumble…. And they let a backup QB run up the middle for 10 yards on 3rd and 8.

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DrownInEtown

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26 minutes ago, Dawg83 said:

It’s a fluke when it happens once. It’s not a fluke the second time. And Arkansas still had every chance to get the ball back and win the game even after the fumble…. And they let a backup QB run up the middle for 10 yards on 3rd and 8.

They played those last couple runs well except the one where a 200 lb qb dragged a 390 lb DT 10 yards for the dagger

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NoWammies

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Nice to have a game where your palms aren’t sweaty and you’re biting your fingernails while sitting on the edge of the seat. Defense answered the call today and showed signs of what they can be. Bunch of big time 4th down stops that swung the game in our favor that we just couldn’t get last week. Now on to LSU. 

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Dawg83 All American

Dawg83

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Dominant second half for State and they end up winning 38-10. Sloppy game with penalties, and I also thought State caught some fortunate breaks on 2-3 calls/no calls when they were on defense, but ultimately they gave up 10 points and the only TD was on a drive where NIU started at State’s 26.

 

Shapen was off a little on deep balls today but hit a couple of timely ones in the second half. Thought State ran the ball really well today, Just under 300 yards on the ground against a team that was only giving up about 75 ypg. And even Shapen got involved in the running game and was pretty effective.

 

4-0 for the first time since 2014, don’t take that for granted…. Conference play may be really tough and I’m not sure how many more wins are out there still. But can’t argue with where State is so far.

 

Two humongous games in-state next week, kicking off within about 45 minutes of each other. Big big day for both State and OM, for different reasons, yes, but still very big.

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Bulldogs4 All American

Bulldogs4

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State pulls away late from a pesky NIL team. This is one of the games that you are glad to win and go to the house. Kind of went like I expected. You knew they were going to play hard and well. A bit similar to the USM game. 
Close for a half. Then all Dawgs in the second half. 
And yes Ole Miss, you gotta ride with Trinidad and Tobago going forward. He looks like he just fits perfectly. Impressive win against a good Tulane team. 
Arkansas just failed to complete the game. You are winning 28-10 but you have to keep on piling it on. Memphis has a good team but they had no business winning that game. And yes they beat State a few years back but that game had some voodoo attached to it along with some suspect officiating. 

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rebmus All American

rebmus

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Ole Miss and State get to find out how good those 4-0 records really are next weekend. 

 

State is obviously improved from last year, I'm just not sure by how much. Getting 2 SEC wins to finish 6-6 is more than enough improvement over last year to give real hope for the future. 

 

Before the season, I wondered how much of a step back Ole Miss would take with a lot of the talent leaving for the NFL. I felt 10 wins would be the ceiling for this team but 8 was more realistic with 6 as the floor. I really haven't seen enough to change my mind on those numbers other than 7 probably the floor now along with 9 and 8 being equally realistic win totals. 

Beat LSU and 10 is certainly doable... we will see if that happens first though.

 

 

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Dawg83 All American

Dawg83

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Before the season I thought to myself that if State were improved, this tour Tennessee game might be winnable. And they are indeed improved… I just fear Tennessee is better than I expected them to be, too. We will see, I may talk myself into State in the next few days, but right now I probably favor UT by a touchdown or more.

 

I haven’t the first clue on OM vs LSU… Gonna need several days to think on what I expect there. I think LSU is probably the better all around team, but OM has been really tough in Oxford under Kiffin.

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rebmus All American

rebmus

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This is a good place to echo what I’ve been saying about rankings before 5 games are played, 7 is better.

LSU’s big win was at Clemson, Syracuse just did the same thing.

Tennessee took Georgia to OT, how good is Georgia?

I certainly wouldn’t bet against Georgia, LSU, and Tennessee all three being playoff teams when it’s all said and done… but it’s certainly not a given. 

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Vott All American

Vott

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10 hours ago, pancho said:

big this week

ulm at usm on thursday

lsu at ole miss

tennessee at msu

Notre Dame at Arkansas(yikes)

Utah State at vandy ( do the dores keep it rolling?)

Auburn at A&M

Indiana at Iowa (do the hoosies stay hot?)

bama at Georgia (oh  lawdie mercy)

oregon at penn state

So miss plays jacksonville st Saturday night

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