CFB Offseason Thread

[Dawg83]

Well there doesn’t seem like much point in continuing the baseball conversation a ton further, so naturally we move on to what’s next, and that would be football season in a few months.

 

It will be the last season before Texas and Oklahoma join the SEC and the last before Playoff expansion, so that shakeup is still a year away, but this could still be an interesting year. I don’t know enough about every team to give too in depth of an analysis, but I do have some general thoughts on State and Ole Miss.

 

As we sadly close the door the Leach era, thus begins the Arnett era. I like Zach, I think he’s got a lot of qualities that tell me he could be an excellent head coach…. But I have no clue if he actually will be. I like what State returns personnel-wise, but it’s fair to have questions about a brand new head coach, and his new offensive coordinator. State has not had an actual OC since Woody McCorvey under Croom, which is amazing to me. Barbay’s offense at App State was intriguing, but obviously we’ve gotta see how well/quickly it can translate over. I think State has a sneaky tough schedule and my gut tells me the baseline expectation should likely be along the lines of 7-5 or so. Good roster, lots of unknowns in terms of leadership, and that will obviously shape how this season goes.

 

Am I wrong for not being very high on Ole Miss this year? Judkins is a superstar, I think Dart has potential…. But what else is there? Maybe I’m wrong, but I kinda think this might be Kiffin’s worst team at OM so far. That still might mean they win 6-7 games, but right now I don’t see the potential that recent OM teams have had. I’ll be honest, I don’t think the Golding hire is going to work out like many hope, and this defensive roster is not very good on paper. Also questions about who will step up at WR, there are some massive shoes to fill from recent teams.

 

General thoughts as we await kickoff in a few months? I know it’s about to be a slow time of the year, but never too early to start thinking ahead.

[Bulldogs4]

In other news 

State Women’s golf team has a good chance to go to the National Championship.

First day of the Regionals has gone well.

 

[rebmus]

I have no idea how Arnett will work out as HC at MSU, but I'd wager he was going to be a HC SOMEWHERE this coming season even if Leach was still with us. 

Considering he was a hot name, I think it was a smart move by MSU to "promote" him to HC. 

 

On OM: 

I have no idea on them either, and certainly am not "high" on them. 

The Golding hire was one of the very few hires where I've seen both fanbases happy. I think the answer is in between- Golding is better than Bama gives him credit and not as good as OM fans think. Even IF Golding was a great DC, I'm not sure the talent exists on that side of the ball for Ole Miss to be good. My way too early guess for OM is 6-6. 

Edited May 9, 2023 by rebmus

[Bulldogs4]

I think State is a 6-6 team this year. I think Arnett will be like Mullen in 2009 and make a few mistakes during the season that he will learn from. If things go well, we could be 7-5/8-4 and if things go South it could be 5-7. With a new HC, you just don’t know until the season evolves. One thing is for sure. Where Leach was stoic and very seldom showed emotion, Arnett has some fire in his belly. So for better or worse, we will see some emotion on the sideline this season. 
 

Not sure about Ole Miss. The way the season ended was certainly disappointing but each year is different. Expectations being lower this year may work to their advantage. Kiffin will hopefully moderate his riverboat gambling style. Taking prudent risks makes sense but sometimes you need to just punt. 

[Dawg83]

Both teams open with an FCS team so there shouldn’t be much intrigue there, but Week 2 has a chance to be interesting. State hosts an improving Arizona program and Ole Miss plays at Tulane, who famously won an NY6 game last year. State and OM will both be favored but I think there could be danger in both games.

 

The end of September is really rough for both teams, State plays LSU-SC-Bama in consecutive weeks, all while Ole Miss plays Bama and LSU in back to back games.

[rebmus]

26 minutes ago, Dawg83 said:

 

 

The end of September is really rough for both teams, State plays LSU-SC-Bama in consecutive weeks, all while Ole Miss plays Bama and LSU in back to back games.

"They remember September" will be very accurate. That's a tough slate for both teams... they best rack up some wins before then.

[Dawg83]

I think there’s a perception that State has an easy schedule because they play 8 games at home. I disagree, and don’t particularly love their home and away splits in SEC play. The majority of State’s toss up games will be on the road.

 

Ole Miss unquestionably has a tougher schedule this year than they had last year. Having to play in Athens and Tuscaloosa is brutal, and that’s before you even talk about the many other tough games they have to play.

[pancho]

Tulane will set the tone for Kiffin. Arnett prolly finds a way to go 7-5

[Dawg83]

12 hours ago, pancho said:

Tulane will set the tone for Kiffin. Arnett prolly finds a way to go 7-5

For some reason I feel like Ole Miss either loses that game outright or wins by 30.

[maroontide06]

The general consensus that I'm getting here is that Arnett will probably take a step back as far as wins and losses are concerned and I get it.  He's a new head coach with a new offensive system, but hopefully it won't be too disastrous.  I think the talent returning and what is coming in is solid, so this may boil down to the amount of kinks that this new offense will have.

[Dawg83]

3 hours ago, maroontide06 said:

The general consensus that I'm getting here is that Arnett will probably take a step back as far as wins and losses are concerned and I get it.  He's a new head coach with a new offensive system, but hopefully it won't be too disastrous.  I think the talent returning and what is coming in is solid, so this may boil down to the amount of kinks that this new offense will have.

I do get that Leach’s offense was not for everybody, and some are optimistic about a move away from the Air Raid. And I liked the Barbay hire and think that State could be effective in his offense, which is very multiple and a bit more of a traditional spread offense.

 

I just know you are losing a lot on the experience side when you go from a guy with 20+ years as a P5 head coach to a 36 year old who has never done it before. With Leach, you felt like you had a chance in Baton Rouge or Auburn or Fayetteville or Oxford because you had seen him win in those kind of environments before. You just don’t really know what you have yet with Arnett.

[Bulldogs4]

State’s Women’s Golf team wins the Regional and is moving on to the Nationals next week in Arizona.

 

State’s Men’s Tennis team takes on TCU in the Tennis version of the Sweet Sixteen.

 

I know, I know … I am reaching here but we need something to be happy about….

[maroontide06]

Can we get Jimmy Bell to play football as well?  I know Jans just got him via the portal, but man the thought of him on the gridiron as well.

[Vott]

I am going to go out on a huge limb and say on Nov 18 that Southern Miss will go into Starkville and upset the Bulldogs. The week before thanksgiving is normally when all the SEC teams play that last non conference game against cupcakes. This game is in between the Texas A-M game and the Egg Bowl. Thats a recipe for an upset I do believe. 

[Dawg83]

18 hours ago, Vott said:

I am going to go out on a huge limb and say on Nov 18 that Southern Miss will go into Starkville and upset the Bulldogs. The week before thanksgiving is normally when all the SEC teams play that last non conference game against cupcakes. This game is in between the Texas A-M game and the Egg Bowl. Thats a recipe for an upset I do believe. 

I don’t like the timing of that game but I have a really hard time seeing the upset. USM had good teams when they most recently played State in 2015 and 2019 and the games weren’t close. And this should be a pretty good State team all things considered.

 

I like Will Hall and think he’s doing a good job. But I’ll be surprised if State doesn’t win by double digits.

[Bulldogs4]

The timing of the game is terrible for State but this is not 1979 anymore. USM is improving and Hall is doing a good job. But State still wins this game. The talent level is no where close anymore. 
An upset is always possible but I just don’t see it happening here. Plus State is not going to overlook Southern. It is still an important instate game. 

[maroontide06]

Well the Mississippi State running back room just got a shot in the arm today with the addition of Keyvone Lee out of Penn State.  Sounds like an excellent get from the portal.

[Bulldogs4]

With Dillon Johnson leaving that definitely gives some depth to RB chart. Marks is very good but he can’t carry the load by himself. 

[Insideradvantage]

Was Lee hurt last season? He had 94 yards on 25 carries all season. 

[maroontide06]

1 hour ago, Insideradvantage said:

Was Lee hurt last season? He had 94 yards on 25 carries all season. 

Apparently he missed 7 games with the Nittany Lions last season due to injury, but he led them in rushing in both 2020 and 2021.  He was also cleared to play in their bowl game, so I'm thinking his injury was at the beginning/before the season started last year.  I think it's a solid get and he'll have two years to play two, so it's not like a one year and done thing with him.

[Dawg83]

Lee is a hoss. Still expect Marks to be the lead guy but Lee definitely has value in goal line and short yardage situations. Big dude. Quietly turning into an impressive RB room for State.

 

I know they’d still like to add at least another DL from the portal.

[Dawg83]

2024 SEC opponents are announced tonight. Supposedly every team will play either Texas or Oklahoma. Rumor mill has State playing OU in Norman next year. Supposedly we are getting a return of the A&M/Texas rivalry with a game in College Station next year.

[pancho]

sounds good

[MSTSatchmo]

This will be interesting.   I don’t think anyone is scared of Texas or Oklahoma at the moment, but both have the potential to turn into Bama/UGA in the near future.  

[Bulldogs4]

3 hours ago, MSTSatchmo said:

This will be interesting.   I don’t think anyone is scared of Texas or Oklahoma at the moment, but both have the potential to turn into Bama/UGA in the near future.  

Both have a lot of tradition and are winning programs across the board. Honestly, with Bama being on the backside of their dominance and UGA in peak form right now, once these two slip some in football, I can see the SEC being very competitive with different team’s winning and no one team dominating like Bama has done and UGA more recently. The other sports could be very wide open and wildly competitive.