Dawg83

KenPom released their preseason rankings today and had Ole Miss 24th and State 26th. Good for 6th and 7th in the SEC. Florida, Kentucky, and Tennessee are ranked in the Top 10 and then there is a big bundle of SEC teams in the 19 to 35 range.

I tell my wife all the time that my dream job is be a fired SEC head football coach.

Man talk about a fall from grace. From number two in the polls to firing their head coach in 3 weeks. My understanding is there was years of pent up frustration within the fan base. They returned a ton and this was a get it done or get out kind of year. And they’re basically out of playoff contention by early to mid October. It was going to be tough for him to recover from this.

Jans is a really good coach and State fans shouldn’t underestimate how hard it is to make the tourney consistently at State. Yeah it’s frustrating that each year it’s been a one and done experience. But you do feel like it’s a matter of time before he finally wins an NCAAT game or two. One of my favorite things about Jans is he’s been an excellent nonconference scheduler. State is going to be tested early and often. They play an exhibition against Houston later this month and their second real game is a neutral site game against Iowa State who will be a a Top 15 or 20 team to start the season.

Also if you’re an OM fan wanting to feel better about a sloppy showing today, it’s not like Georgia and Oklahoma set the world on fire today. Not remotely in OU’s case. This may be the weirdest year near the top of the SEC that I can remember. If you made me pick an SEC champion today I’d probably go with Bama, but even there you’re talking about a team that got smacked by a now 3-3 Florida State. It’s very much there for the taking for a bunch of teams, even ones with a loss already or who haven’t necessarily blown anyone away.

I try not to be a toot my own horn kinda guy…. But two years ago when State fired Arnett, I was the most vocal member of the Curt Cignetti fan club. State obviously didn’t go that route and he ends up at Indiana. I don’t know if people have grasped yet just how unreal the turnaround he’s done at IU is. They went 2-10, 4-8, 3-9 the three years before hiring Cignetti, and all he’s done is go 17-2 in his first season and a half. And has a Top 5 team at a VERY non traditional school, and looking at their remaining schedule, is probably about to put them in the playoff for the second year in a row. I was high on the guy and he’s far surpassed any expectations I possibly could’ve had.

Fair enough

I’m certain there was an element of look ahead in that game. And 6-0 is 6-0. But this feels like an overly sloppy OM team. The best game they’ve played all year was probably that Tulane game. Kentucky stinks and that was a far more competitive game than it should’ve been. Arkansas is “already fired their coach” bad and took OM to the wire in Oxford. Yes the LSU game was a quality win but the talking point coming out of that was OM won by a lot less than they should’ve. I guess the counterpoint is it’s a great sign to not look terribly impressive week to week and still be 6-0. But the question to me becomes does OM step it up down the stretch or is this a sign that some L’s are coming?

Pretty sure Bruce forced their hand on hiring his son…. I am skeptical about that working long term. Risky move by them. But it’s John Cohen so of course he made a weird hire. If Cohen ends up having to replace the younger Pearl, he is far more likely to pursue Jans than Beard simply because Cohen seems to be incapable of hiring anyone other than people with ties to State. Go look at Auburn’s athletic department directory…. A lot of people that used to live in Starkville.

Last year was maybe the toughest conference in the history of college basketball. Nowhere to go but down lol.

State was frankly pretty bad defensively in league play last year and I know it drove Jans crazy. This roster was specifically constructed to be more of a Jans style team. Curious to see what that looks like. You know Shawn Jones is a dirty work guy, but there will be others, I presume.

For State, you’ve obviously got one of the best players in the league with Hubb. The team will likely go as he goes. But the pieces around him are very interesting. Finally have a rim protector for the first time under Jans with Quincy Ballard. Jayden Epps should be the best backcourt scoring option other than Hubbard that Jans has had. Have about four other guys you feel decent about as rotation pieces. After that, several question marks. Someone unproven (probably 2-3 of them) are going to have to step up and be able to contribute right away. Not sure if that’s one of the freshmen, the transfer from Slovenia, or someone else. The spot I am most curious about is the 4 position. Cam Matthews had a stranglehold on it four 3 years and he had a unique skillset and played several different positions. A lot of good came with that but there were some limitations too, particularly the fact that he wasn’t a 3 point shooter at all. This year, that 4 spot will be a little bit more of what you usually see in modern basketball . Achor Achor, I presume, gets first crack at it, and he’s more of a stretch 4 that can shoot a little bit. They’ve got a couple of other guys too that the jury is out on (specifically Macura and Walker). But that position for me is the biggest unknown for State.

Figured might as well get the discussion started since exhibitions start soon and opening night is less than a month out. Somewhat similar situations for both State and OM. Both lost a lot and have a lot of new faces, but return a key anchor from last year. For State it’s Hubbard (and to a lesser extent Shawn Jones), for OM it’s Dia. I think both fan bases have excitement about the batch of newcomers and a lot of trust in their HC. I don’t think either team will start the season in the Top 25, but both could easily finish there. I don’t believe the SEC is going to be as insanely dominant overall as it was last year so there’s room for one of these two teams to contend near the top if all the pieces connect. Admittedly I’m less in the know on women’s hoops so someone else will have to lead the discussion there. I do know that Purcell got crushed by the transfer portal and two of his contributors ended up at OM. Early thoughts?

Along those lines, turned on the CFB video game last night and was skimming around and noticed that Chambliss isn’t even on OM’s roster in the game (as of now). Also, Lacy is like the lowest rated RB. With Hardy I think most had an idea when he hit the portal last year that he was really good and would make an impact. Similar deal with Fluff. Chambliss is one of the most out of nowhere success stories I can recall. Only one similar I can think of recently is Baker Mayfield.

It’s increasingly rarer nowadays in the era of Hudl and social media. Just find it surprising. Recruiting has definitely changed a lot. I almost wonder if there is a view by coaches on certain guys that “I don’t need him out of high school but I think I can get him out of the portal in two years”. Almost let smaller schools do the development part for you, and then get a player once he’s ready made. I believe State took Xavier Gayten in the same class who they are high on and you’ll see more of until Fluff returns.

My question on Hardy has been less so how did he end up at Mizzou, but more how did he end up at UL Monroe to start with? He presumably could’ve been had by State or OM out of high school and both totally missed on him.

State on bye, but more interesting week overall. Washington State at Ole Miss -32.5 - as recently as a year ago this may have been a bit of an intriguing game. Unfortunately conference realignment and a slew of coaching changes in the last 5 years have left Wazzu in turmoil. This line surprised me until I looked at Wazzu’s results to this point…. Yeah OM should cover without much trouble. Then all eyes turn to a crucial two weeks on the road after this. Bama -2.5 at Mizzou: I am fascinated by this game, as someone who is pretty high on both teams. Huge opportunity for Mizzou. The DeBoer experience on the road at Bama has been an uneven one… I’m taking the Tigers in an upset. Texas -1.5 vs Oklahoma - Texas is a mess, OU still without Mateer, and this game has a history of being strange. I’m going to take Texas to rally the troops and win an ugly one against the OU backup QB. Arkansas at Tennessee -11.5 - underrated possibility for most entertaining game of the day. It’s the initial ride (pun intended) of Bobby P Part 2. I take Vols to win and cover but don’t be surprised if this is a shootout. Florida at Texas A&M -7.5 - Gators cover, but Aggies win a close one. I remain higher on UF than most, and A&M is a mistake prone team. Gators could win this outright. Georgia -3.5 at Auburn - weird things happen in Jordan Hare… I’m taking Auburn to pull off the upset SC at LSU -9.5 - don’t love either team, but when in doubt, don’t pick against LSU at home at night.

I’ve been a Saints fan since about 2002 (pre-Brees) but my attention has definitely waned since Brees retired. It’s unfortunately been a slow fade to the bottom and the hard reset still hasn’t happened yet. Maybe soon.

Wasn’t that the same drive as the goal line stand? Don’t think A&M scored after that but maybe you can argue it was more snaps for the D and flipped field position, etc. I am curious to see Florida vs A&M next week before State travels to Gainesville. Is Florida fixed or was yesterday more of a Texas issue? I know UF got a really talented freshman WR back yesterday and it made a noticeable difference. There are several very fascinating games next week, IMO, after a somewhat dull week this week.

Don’t know if a team has ever needed this bye week worse than State does. I still think there are winnable games in the second half of the year and there is a path to bowl eligibility. But they’ve got to get healthier in certain spots, or else have replacement options start to gel more than they have. If Fluff’s injury is season ending, that would definitely hurt, but RB is the one position where State has some other solid options, if nothing else. Other positions I don’t feel as confident about. They need Albert Reese back ASAP. And Isaac Smith soon too. Feel like the next three games for State are kinda the season definers. Florida, Texas, Arkansas. You can win each of those games, though I’m not expecting 3-0. Can you get to 2-1 and nail down your bowl place? If so, that’s awesome and I don’t think anyone could really complain about much at that point. Must win one of those to maintain the hope for bowl eligibility down the stretch. If you go 0-3 and are sitting at 4-5 with Georgia/Mizzou/OM to finish the year, that’s gonna feel a bit deflating barring a late season upset. First time watching A&M closely this year. I think they are good, not great. May can contend for one of the last playoff spots, don’t see them as a championship team. Don’t love the QB and they commit way too many penalties, but the rest of that roster is very good.

And from bad to worse, Fluff Bothwell with a seemingly serious injury in garbage time. Man what a bad night. And injuries are beginning to kill a promising season.

State’s OL injuries showing in a big way. Pretty miserable offensive showing. Defense has played decently well but starting to wear out. Feels like A&M about to pull away here.

Vandy and Bama in another close one. Florida up two scores on Texas. I am suddenly very intrigued by Texas coming to Starkville in 3 weeks.

The line moved a couple of more points toward A&M with the news that Albert Reese is out and Isaac Smith is doubtful. Definitely big absences. State’s OL is a major major concern at the moment. One starting tackle from Week 1 already lost for the year and another out for an undetermined amount of time.

Oh my gosh it may somehow be worse than the all white suits. Lol. State downgraded majorly in uniforms for this week. The Croom era W-W-M look has never worked for me. It is kinda weird that A&M made this their big blackout game. Appreciate the respect though. If you ever want to scare off an Aggie fan just mention the name Nick Fitzgerald.