Dawg83

Oh my gosh it may somehow be worse than the all white suits. Lol. State downgraded majorly in uniforms for this week. The Croom era W-W-M look has never worked for me. It is kinda weird that A&M made this their big blackout game. Appreciate the respect though. If you ever want to scare off an Aggie fan just mention the name Nick Fitzgerald.

A little lighter on games this week, including OM on their bye, but we’ll get into it all anyway. State at A&M -14.5: I think there are two schools of thought on this game. The first is conventional wisdom which says State is beat the heck up playing on the road after a draining, emotional home loss, and that would tell you that A&M wins this game big. The other school of thought is…. This State team has been resilient as heck under Lebby and it seems to take a lot to rattle them. Even last year when they were awful, they stayed in some games longer than they had any right to. That plus the total unreliability of Texas A&M over the years suggests State could even have a chance to win. I think I lean toward A&M winning and covering, something like 35-17, but I think it will be close for 3 quarters before A&M pulls away late. I worry about the injuries on the State side, especially on the OL. I think they need more time to regroup and that bye after this game probably comes at a good time. Texas -6.5 at Florida - I want to pick Florida to win this, I really do. I don’t trust Texas much right now either. But the UF offense is a disaster. It feels as if it’s a matter of when for Billy, not if. I think the longest he lasts will be the State game in a couple of weeks, if he lasts that long. Texas wins by 14 in a sloppy, ugly game. Vandy at Bama -10.5 - Y’all, there is a realistic pathway for Vandy to be a playoff contender. It is not far fetched at all they could end up in the mix. The big question for this game is can history repeat itself? I (and many of you) would LOVE to see it, personally. But in Tuscaloosa, I don’t think the Dores can take this one. Give me Bama by 14. Kentucky at Georgia -20.5 - I think Kentucky is the worse team in the league. Not terribly sold on Georgia so far but they should win this by 3 TD’s or more. Miami -4.5 at Florida State - I’m taking the Noles at home here. Good team, just got beat on the road as happens in this era more often. But if Miami can win this one, I’m sold on them as a legit contender.

I have no clue what to make of the SEC right now. If you wanna put Ole Miss number 4 in the country for now that’s fine…. Do I think they are good enough to win it all? Not really…. But do I think could they win the SEC Title? I mean that’s a definite maybe. I am not sure where exactly the national title contenders in the SEC are at the moment. I don’t think there is a single SEC team I would pick to beat Ohio State or Oregon right now. Miami is dang good too I just don’t trust their coach-QB combo. But that’s my point… it’s different in the SEC currently. The best SEC team may merely be a borderline Top 5 overall team this year.

I would’ve gone for 2 there because the defense had nothing left in the tank. In my experience with watching Lebby as State’s coach for 17 games now, I think that’s probably what he would’ve done.

State getting a lot of respect from AP voters still, just outside of the Top 25 even with the loss. I don’t feel great about the A&M game next week, especially with how banged up State is coming out of that game. But that three game stretch following State’s bye will be huge. Florida and Arkansas are certainly winnable, Texas at home is a maybe? Speaking of Arkansas…. Pittman is officially out, and the Motorcycle Man is back in charge.

Hats off to Ole Miss, missed a lot of it but seems like they had a great defensive effort and were clutch enough on offense to seal it. Heartbreaking loss for State. They were one or two plays away from an unreal win. Spent every ounce of gas in the tank on that one. Just didn’t have enough left in the last 5 minutes in OT to beat a playoff contender. This State loss felt so much like State-LSU 2009. In so many ways. I think there is a lot to be hopeful for, but no doubt this was a tough L to take.

I don’t know if a field has ever been stormed as quickly as Virginia did last night. Looked scary, TBH. FSU had a WR still laying on his back in the end zone and thousands of students just sprinted in over where he was laying.

State at Minnesota exclusively on Peacock sounds about right in this new era of TV. Lol.

I think it’s slowly trending that way. Rumored to be wearing maroon interlocking helmets for Texas and the Egg Bowl.

We’ll see how Saturday goes, but I keep going back to this being UT’s first road game, and by extension Aguilar’s first SEC road game, and wondering what impact that could have. Might mean nothing, might mean a lot. We’ll see in two days I guess. I just know that Top 10-15 teams going on the road seem more gettable than they may have 4-5 years ago.

I don’t know how I feel about wearing white at home, especially for a huge game, but my gosh it’s great to see State embracing that interlocking logo again: https://x.com/hailstatefb/status/1971273568819478834?s=46&t=IJxJ67A7clYGRo5a6ZP_2A

Oklahoma, Bama, and Auburn all coming to Starkville next year sounds like fun, maybe some opportunities for a big win or two. You would think Mizzou and Vandy at home can be winnable games. A road schedule of LSU, Texas, SC, and Ole Miss is less fun. In my opinion, a 9 game league schedule just makes it so much more important to go unbeaten in nonconference. State plays at Minnesota in Week 2 next year, going to be a VERY important game.

Officially a sellout in Starkville on Saturday. Only the third one since Mullen left (the previous two were 2018 UF and 2022 UGA). Crazy that this is the first time Tennessee is coming to Starkville since 2012. I’m sure plenty of orange will make the trip, but there does seem to be excitement and optimism on the State side of things.

I think the reason for this is most believe LSU’s offense to be very talented but underachieving, and many think they’ll get clicking at some point. With OM’s defense, I think they are coached well generally but it’s obviously just not as talented as last year. And I watched Kentucky, a worse and less talented offense than LSU, move the ball reasonably well on OM. All that to say, I picked LSU but if you told me OM dominated similar to what they did to Georgia last year, I can’t say I’d be totally shocked.

Man this is as good as it gets in terms of a Saturday schedule: LSU at Ole Miss -1.5: I am truly torn on this one and it’s probably the biggest toss up of the day. Should be a great environment in Oxford and that may be enough to get OM the win…. I am going to take LSU here simply because I think they have the better overall roster and I still have questions about this OM team defensively. I think it will be close and semi low scoring…. But I’m taking LSU 24-20. Nothing would surprise me though. Tennessee -7.5 at State: biggest game in Starkville since… 2018 Florida? Huge opportunity here for State. What a big jolt of energy it would be to find a way to win this game. I still think State’s ceiling is quite limited, and I’m not ruling out that UT comes in and just plows over State. That said, the fact that it’s in Starkville in what should be a great environment, and UT has had moments of road struggles under Heupel, makes me think State has a chance here. There are also some questions about UT defensively. I think this probably trends toward shootout, and I’m going with the home team to keep the magic going a little while longer. State 34, UT 31 on a walk off Kyle Ferrie FG. Notre Dame -4.5 at Arkansas: Huge game for Sam Pittman. Hard to trust the Hogs right now, though. I have ND covering. Auburn at Texas A&M -6.5: Can Auburn get over the controversy of last week? Not sure, especially with A&M rested following a bye. A&M by double digits. Kentucky at South Carolina -6.5: SC covers at home Alabama -2.5 at Georgia: I am honestly shocked this line is as close at it is. Would that maybe be from ghosts of Bama games past haunting Georgia? I personally don’t see a Bama win here and think UGA may win by double digits. Oregon at Penn State -3.5: neither team has been tested, should be a lot of fun. I am taking Oregon to win outright. Just don’t trust James Franklin in these type of games.

I figured State would get OM and Bama. Was not expecting Vandy at all.

Before the season I thought to myself that if State were improved, this tour Tennessee game might be winnable. And they are indeed improved… I just fear Tennessee is better than I expected them to be, too. We will see, I may talk myself into State in the next few days, but right now I probably favor UT by a touchdown or more. I haven’t the first clue on OM vs LSU… Gonna need several days to think on what I expect there. I think LSU is probably the better all around team, but OM has been really tough in Oxford under Kiffin.

Week 5 has an amazing schedule, only downside is a number of these games kick off at basically the same time as several other good ones.

Dominant second half for State and they end up winning 38-10. Sloppy game with penalties, and I also thought State caught some fortunate breaks on 2-3 calls/no calls when they were on defense, but ultimately they gave up 10 points and the only TD was on a drive where NIU started at State’s 26. Shapen was off a little on deep balls today but hit a couple of timely ones in the second half. Thought State ran the ball really well today, Just under 300 yards on the ground against a team that was only giving up about 75 ypg. And even Shapen got involved in the running game and was pretty effective. 4-0 for the first time since 2014, don’t take that for granted…. Conference play may be really tough and I’m not sure how many more wins are out there still. But can’t argue with where State is so far. Two humongous games in-state next week, kicking off within about 45 minutes of each other. Big big day for both State and OM, for different reasons, yes, but still very big.

State hasn’t looked very good against NIU today but up by 14 after 3. For OM…. Sorry Austin Simmons I think you are the backup now. I don’t know how you go away from Trinidad at this point if you are Kiffin.

It’s a fluke when it happens once. It’s not a fluke the second time. And Arkansas still had every chance to get the ball back and win the game even after the fumble…. And they let a backup QB run up the middle for 10 yards on 3rd and 8.

Down goes Arkansas, and Memphis takes down another SEC team at the Liberty Bowl. What a choke. Blew a 28-10 lead and gave up just under 300 yards rushing in the process.

Looks like another Trinidad start for OM.

Happy to. Love the win for USM against App State, that was really impressive. Vegas thinks this is a really close game, LA Tech only a 3.5 point home favorite. I don’t know much about LA Tech other than they didn’t embarrass themselves against LSU. Coin toss of a game, I will ride with USM to keep the good vibes going on the basis of I think they have the superior head coach and QB situation between the two teams. Sonny Cumbie’s only accomplishment as a head coach was beating a COVID-riddled State team in the Liberty Bowl when he was the interim at Texas Tech, otherwise he has done jack diddly squat in Ruston.

A bit of a “calm before the storm” week this weekend, though that can often be when you see some bizarre results happen. Ole Miss -11.5 vs Tulane - this is a sneaky dangerous game for OM, Tulane has already beaten two P4 teams convincingly. Granted not teams on OM’s level, but still. It’s also a bit of a letdown-look ahead sandwich right in the middle of Arkansas and LSU. I kinda see this going like the game in NOLA a couple of years ago, i.e. it’s really tight for about 60-75% of the game and then OM pulls away late. I like OM 41-24, but maybe it’s 27-24 after 3 quarters or something like that. State -21 vs NIU - Does the MACtion get State for a second year in a row? Probably not. But don’t think there aren’t plenty of State people sweating this one. NIU beat Notre Dame a year ago, and that’s a concern; playing in an SEC stadium won’t overwhelm them I can’t imagine. At the same time, this NIU team has been very bad offensively so far, and I think State should be able to just outscore them. I think I will take NIU to cover because I think State is looking ahead to the Tennessee game and given the 3:15 kickoff I don’t think there will be much energy in the stadium, but I still have State winning something like 31-13. For some reason I see this being kind of an ugly win for State. Arkansas -7.5 at Memphis - another trap game scenario and I’m taking Memphis to win here. There is something about that stadium for big Memphis home games that makes it tough to win in recently. State and OM fans know this well. Auburn -6.5 at Oklahoma - I love this matchup and have been impressed with both teams so far, think this will be a great game. I have Auburn covering but OU winning by 3 or 4. SC at Mizzou -11.5 - if sellers is out I think Mizzou wins easily. If Sellers plays I still like Mizzou but closer. For some reason this is taking me back to State vs Arkansas 2022 with the KJ Jefferson injury situation. Florida at Miami -7.5 - this will either make me look very smart or very dumb… give me the Gators outright on the road. Call it a trust thing with Cristobal…. I feel like he loses in these kind of games often. We are also getting close to the point of no return with Napier so I wonder if his team has a last stand in them.