Dawg83

Interesting to reflect on this now that 75% of the season has played out. I think you can easily argue that Ole Miss, State, and USM have all exceeded expectations that most had at the start of the year. Now it’s a matter of can you REALLY exceed expectations. 1. Ole Miss - has a realistic path to hosting a playoff game, outside chance of playing in the SEC championship, in a year where most expected a step back. 2. State - can reach bowl eligibility in a year where their Vegas O/U win total was 3.5 and not many State fans at all thought they could sniff six wins. 3. USM - controls its own destiny to reach the conference title game, a year after going 1-11.

There was a world where there ended up being a ton of 10-2 SEC teams that could make OM’s playoff hopes questionable even at 10-2… that kinda went out the window on Saturday. OM will be in the playoff barring a surprise 0-2 stretch against UF and State.

Have no fear, John Cohen is making the hire and I’m sure he will have no trouble putting his ego aside and won’t try to be the smartest guy in the room at all!

I don’t expect State to win but you never know with how shaky UGA has been away from Athens this year. I absolutely think they are capable of going into Columbia and beating a banged up Mizzou in two weeks. As we sit here today I’m probably leaning OM in the Egg Bowl still but State is 100% capable of winning that one at home. Would not be anywhere close to the biggest upset in series history.

Kentucky 10 Auburn 3 Bye Hugh…. Been nice knowing ya Actually no it hasn’t

Was at the game in Fayetteville tonight. Let me start by saying Arkansas probably should’ve won that game by multiple scores and their total self destruction via penalty single handedly kept State in the game. State was awful in the first half and really bad defensively in the 3rd quarter, combined with some questionable decisions by Lebby… It was looking bleak there for most of the day. But man… If there’s one thing you gotta give this team credit for, it’s that they don’t lay down at any point. Hasn’t happened a single time in the Lebby tenure even when many suspected they would, especially last year and occasionally after a devastating loss this year. They kept playing, and it finally paid off. State does not win without Kamario Taylor’s third quarter…. They also do not win without Blake Shapen’s fourth quarter. Anthony Evans had a terrible drop leading to an INT on Shapen’s first drive back after the injury…. And then he made the game winning play on a 4th down, no less. That was a wild game, but it felt awesome to be on the right side of it for once. Go Dogs! Side bar…. Arkansas has a nice stadium, not that great of an atmosphere, but to be fair their fans were admittedly checked out on this season by now. The highlight of the pregame for me was they brought the live hog mascot out for a loop on the field in a flatbed trailer being pulled by a tractor. I will hear no slander from Arkansas people on State being a redneck school after I witnessed that. lol.

Ohio State vs Penn State was supposed to be this huge No. 1 vs. No. 2 game going into the season, and today it will happen with zero fanfare whatsoever.

Simmons will be in demand if he hits the portal, but I don’t think State would be likely to be a huge part of it. Feel pretty confident State is planning to ride with Kamario for the next 2-3 years, assuming they can keep him out of the portal too. Not sure if Kromenhoek stays long term. If not, look for State to add an older portal QB next year perhaps as a backup, perhaps to compete as starter.

Fluff appears to be good to go for State on Saturday… But now Albert Reese is doubtful. SMH.

State at Arkansas -4.5: two teams that have been beyond bad in winning time, and one of them will finally be declared a winner (somehow). Arkansas has a very dynamic offense but a ghastly defense. State has been decent on both sides of the ball, but very up and down and it seems to fluctuate quarter to quarter. Key to the game for me is turnovers. Probably looking at a bit of a track meet, so whoever can force mistakes has an edge. To this point State has been pretty good in TO margin whereas Arkansas has been terrible at forcing turnovers, and Taylen Green - while a very dynamic playmaker - has shown a tendency to be turnover prone at times. Not sure this game deserves that many words of analysis, lol…. But I’m picking State to get the monkey off the back here. They’ve been painfully close to an excellent season. But now it’s time to go beat the 2-6 team that fired their coach already. State is the team with more to play for at this point and they’ve shown the ability to look like a good team. No excuses to be had if you can’t go win this one. It’s time. State 42, Arkansas 31. South Carolina at Ole Miss -12.5: ok Ole Miss, you’ve done the hard part, congrats on setting yourself up for a clean runway to make the Playoff. Can you avoid screwing it up on takeoff? Carolina has been one of the bigger disappointments of the season, though they did take Bama to the wire last week. Sellers is dynamic enough to give them a chance and keep them in it, but I don’t think I can see them winning this one in Oxford at night. OM offense is just a bit too much for them. I have the Rebs winning 34-20. Vanderbilt at Texas -1.5: man the Vandy story has been fun, and if they win this game, they’re probably making the Playoff, amazingly! I’m going to be a bit of a party pooper and take Texas at home, though. I think this will be low scoring, ugly game and I just give the home team the edge here. Georgia -7.5 vs Florida: Billy Napier out, Billy Gonzales in. I have no idea what Florida is going to look like. But I think Georgia’s offense is the best part of both teams and I have them winning this by about 10. Oklahoma at Tennessee -3.5: I have the Vols winning this possibly by double digits. I didn’t love what I saw from the Oklahoma offense at all against OM, and I don’t trust them to score enough to match Tennessee, similar to how the OM game went. Playing in Neyland at night should be a great atmosphere. Kentucky at Auburn -10.5: I’ll be danged if Hugh isn’t going to fool around and make it to a bowl game. Does that save him? I dunno. But I think Kentucky is no good, especially on the road, so Auburn wins this one.

If I’m not mistaken, State has played in four one score games to this point and Ole Miss has played in six. Also the last two Egg Bowls weren’t just OM routs even though the gap between the two teams was much bigger than it is this year. I think the Egg Bowl being a one possession game is a relatively safe bet, all things considered. Almost regardless of the records of the teams coming in. Now, obviously Ole Miss has fared MUCH better than State in close games so far so that should tell you what my general expectation is for the winner. But yeah, it should be a tight game.

I think at the core of every State fan wanting Lebby fired this year is a failure to accept how bad the program had gotten and how hard it was going to be to turn that around in one or two years, even with the portal. I don’t think there is a single G5 league that State would have won last year if they were in it. Dead serious. Also, let’s not beat around the bush here…. State fans are absolutely losing their minds about the fact that Ole Miss is thriving while State is struggling. That is really hard for a lot of State people to accept. My message to those people would be you’ve gotta get over it for now, sorry. The programs are just in two different spots with two different levels of coaching experience and length of tenures and that has to be accepted. I think it’s fair to eventually ask why can’t State win at a similar level to what OM has done, but the program isn’t to that point yet.

Of course disappointment is reasonable. You had it in FG range to kick for the win in Gainesville and turned it over before you got the kick off. And you blew a 17 point lead in under 10 minutes on Saturday. I think I’d question if you were a real human being if that wasn’t frustrating for you as a State fan. Ultimately it will end up being one of two things: 1. Lebby just doesn’t ever figure out how to finish those kind of games and he’s eventually fired in 2026 or 2027. 2. Lebby goes on to be a success at State and you can chalk these losses up to growing pains for a program that’s in the process of figuring it out still but could breakthrough in a big game at any moment. I really think these last four games will tell you a lot. Losing all four would be extremely demoralizing for the fan base, but just finding one win could be the spark State needs to start seeing greater results. You’ve lost some painful games to teams with more talent than you. It’s over with and you can’t undo it. Wanna know a good way to start righting the ship? Go beat the 2-6 team that’s already fired their coach.

I don’t think Brady is coming back to college. He’s a future NFL head coach and has mostly been an NFL guy except for the one famous year he had at LSU. I like Sumrall and think he’s going to be a very good SEC coach one day. I am also not sure how if you are LSU’s AD you sell THAT fan base on firing guy with a 34-14 record just to go hire the guy who’s spent most of the last 12 years at Troy and Tulane. Maybe I’m wrong but I have long assumed Sumrall’s next move would be to Kentucky as Stoops’ successor.

Can’t help but wonder if all the openings are gonna buy some coaches more time that may have otherwise gotten fired. Additionally, schools like Arkansas, VA Tech, and UCLA that fired their coach super early…. I’m not saying they regret their decision, but the marketplace is insanely crowded now after they were in a hurry to jump into it first. And none of them are close to the best jobs out there.

In his case it probably didn’t help that he’s an extremely unlikable person that seemed like a horrid fit there from Day 1. When the three previous coaches all won national titles within 4 years, and in his year 4 his best bowl showing was about to be the Citrus Bowl (with no NY6, no Playoff, and no SEC championships)…. For a program like LSU where the expectations are so high and resources very vast, I get it a little more than other firings.

Lebby is safe barring something shocking. Stoops might be too, it depends on if UK gets spooked by how many openings there are this year. Auburn and Oklahoma are the two big ones that could still open up, IMO. And possibly Florida State as well. Wisconsin is another.

Aaaand the LSU job is officially open. Welp. This is going to be an insane carousel cycle. And we may not be done with high profile firings yet.

If you’ve watched a lot of State games and a lot of Georgia games this year, they are really similar, except Georgia wins them late and State loses them late.

I think part of it is that 2023 and 2024 were so hopeless and State didn’t really even come close to winning any of the games they lost. State last year was a 2-10 team that didn’t come close to going 3-9. This year they are still losing but in a way that draws people in and feels hopeful, at least for a time. And then it has come crashing down late in these games. That messes with your emotions in a different way. And the thing is, I think anyone assuming that State is just going to fold and get blown out the rest of the year are probably mistaken…. There is a very distinct possibly that State is in 3-4 more of these close games that come down to the wire. It has not been a season for the faint of heart. The hope is that at some point the script flips in your favor like it did against Arizona State and you can find a couple more wins to get to bowl eligibility. Nobody wants to hear it but State absolutely has multiple winnable games remaining on their schedule. Nothing that happened against Texas or Florida changed that, in my option. I mean if anything, Arkansas and Missouri seem more winnnable than they did previously given yesterday’s results in their two games. Mizzou is a QB injury issue, Arkansas is a “gave up 33 points and lost to Hugh Freeze at home” issue.

Not exactly apples to apples, but this State team reminds me of watching many of the Ben Howland basketball teams at State as he was rebuilding from the Rick Ray years.. I think it’s pretty clear they are much improved and do various things well…. But man do they struggle at the little things and in crunch time. Something’s gotta give sooner or later. I think it’s fair to characterize Arkansas as a must win game after the way the last two weeks ended. You simply have to give your fans something tangible in terms of progress. They are being absolutely tortured with the way State is losing these games. Many said going into the year that progress may not necessarily equate to wins… I think you’re at the point now where you can’t show anymore progress until you win a game or two. It’s as simple as that. I think State fans have reached their limit in terms of accepting these “play hard but lose close in the final moments” kind of games.

Very much a possibility too. OM has done a great job of hanging on to him to this point and KC is a very good AD. But he will be pursued regardless.

Look I have no Idea if Lane Kiffin is leaving Ole Miss or not. But I have been wondering for a week or two if all the discussion about “would he go to Florida” is maybe the wrong job to be worrying about. Because whatever you think about Florida may be a moot point if LSU is about to cut in front of them in the line to talk to Kiffin.

Struggling to find words to describe that one. I thought State played really well for 50 minutes and then didn’t do the little things well in the last 10 and it all unraveled for them. A lot of folks are going to be REALLY down on Lebby after the last two weeks and that’s not an unfair way to view things. It is unbelievably frustrating to have those two games in that position and not be able to close either one of them. I mean those are two all time painful losses back to back if you’re a State fan. But dang it if you aren’t really freaking close and still have winnable games to be had on the schedule. Arkansas is still absolutely a winnable game next week, and Mizzou lost their starting QB for the season (after already losing their backup for the season) so who knows what kind of Mizzou team you’ll be seeing in 3 weeks. I understand it is hard to be hopeful if you’re a State fan right now and it’s hard for anyone to ask State fans to not bail on this team. I am just saying that even with the painful losses, this group has shown a lot of qualities and resiliency to where it’s entirely possible there’s a light or two at the end of the tunnel before the year is over. And if they go 4-8, we’ll have all offseason to talk about what Lebby needs to do in 2026 to not get fired after Year 3.

State up by 10 at the half, played an excellent second quarter. Arch and the Texas OL have not looked good so far. Meanwhile Shapen is playing maybe his best game as a Bulldog to this point.