Dawg83

Was surprised to see USM only a 3.5 point home favorite at home vs a 3-6 Texas State.

I hope they will let the families of squirrels and raccoons living in the locker room pack up their belongings and move out before they tear down the Tad Pad. (I like the Pavilion at OM quite a bit as an arena but the Tad Pad was something else lol).

Florida at Ole Miss -15.5: this is a suspicious line, IMO. All common sense in my brain tells me that Florida has quit and Ole Miss should win by four touchdowns. But the vibes are a little weird here just because of the Kiffin and Florida angle. OM people are adamant he’s staying, UF people are adamant he’s leaving, and the man himself has left it a bit open ended for the moment. This feels like a weirdly emotional game for what is 9-1 vs 3-6. That alone makes me wonder if it’s closer than one might expect. I have Ole Miss winning because I simply cannot believe this Florida team is capable of winning in Oxford at night in what I’m sure will be a strong atmosphere. But I’ll lean into the fishy line and say Ole Miss 27 Florida 17., so UF covers but OM wins. And an OM win here should pretty much luck up a playoff spot barring something really crazy. State at Mizzou -7.5: injuries here have really affected both teams. Mizzou is down to its third string QB and there is a distinct possibility that Shapen is unavailable for State. Mizzou is a great running team but their passing has fallen off a cliff with the QB injuries. Good defensive team but they got picked apart by A&M last week. Mizzou has struggled to score touchdowns the last couple of weeks in spite of running the ball well, and State hits these lulls for about a quarter a week where they cannot do a dang thing on offense. I’m honestly struggling to pick this one given so many unknowns on both sides. My heart says State, my head says Mizzou. If there were ever a time for Kamario Taylor to have his breakout star making performance, maybe this is it. What the heck, I’m going for it. State 23, Mizzou 20 to get State bowl eligible. And the Kamario hype train takes off as we move toward an intriguing Egg Bowl on Black Friday. Oklahoma at Alabama -6.5: I think this is going to be a really interesting game. Bama’s inability to run the ball is going to cost them at some point. But they haven’t lost in Tuscaloosa under DeBoer yet and I don’t think it happens here. Bama by 7. Texas at Georgia -6.5: Texas isn’t dead for the playoff, but Georgia in Athens is a really tough challenge and they seem to be figuring some things out. UGA wins by 10. SC at A&M -18.5: Aggies are for real, Gamecocks stink. A&M wins by 3 touchdowns. Arkansas at LSU -5.5: lol I guess somebody has to win this game. We will see if Arkansas can keep the penalties under 190 yards this time. For all of LSU’s issues they are still likely bowl bound and Arkansas is finishing 2-10 or 3-9. LSU covers at home.

He got concussed in the exhibition against Houston. Played in the first game but looked REALLY off. I’m wondering if he is still dealing with some issues on that.

I don’t agree with this at all. State had made one NCAAT appearance in 13 years before Jans and he’s made it in each of his first three seasons. He can survive a bad year or two. And this may be a bad year, early returns are concerning. But I’ve also learned by now to not count him out. I think it’s fair to question some things on his portal evaluations over the last couple of years. Hubbard may be a one man show this season if the first two games are any indication. The supporting cast has had a very worrisome start to the year. Hopefully it’s a situation where they just got worked over by a Top 20 team and it’s not as bad as it seems. But boy was tonight hard to watch. Iowa State only made 5 threes and still scored darn near 100 points. And 26 turnovers is a stat you only typically see in situations like when Vic Schaefer’s women’s teams would play a SWAC team in November and beat them by 60. It’s a really bad showing from an SEC team that’s been in the tourney several years in a row.

State is getting absolutely destroyed by Iowa State. I think ISU is a legit team but man State has looked bad. A LOT of things to fix or it could be the first year of no tourney for Jans.

I’m just reading between the lines but it sounded an awful lot like Saturday in CoMo will be the Kamario show.

The QB controversy at State seems to be really taking off. I personally see the case for both guys. My main concern is State’s OL is in shambles health wise so you wonder if they’d be better off leaning into the more mobile QB in Kamario. But he’s also the less refined passer of the two. Shapen has gotten a lot of grief from State fans this year that I don’t think is totally justified. Don’t get me wrong, he has limitations, and Kamario’s ceiling is much higher. But Shapen isn’t the reason State has five losses. The line of scrimmage on both sides is far and away the biggest issue on this team. Part of me also wonders if the demand for Kamario would be as high if he was from Macon, Georgia and not Macon, Mississippi. But I mean this may kinda take care of itself…. Shapen has gotten knocked out of the last two games because of injuries and I don’t know if it’s even a sure thing he plays at Mizzou.

Louisville lost to Cal in overtime… Is it too late to revoke the ACC’s invitation to the Playoff?

I think that second loss may make it tough. They are probably going to end up wishing they had that LA Tech game back when it’s all said and done. That said, the latest forecasting I saw had James Madison (USM’s likely Sun Belt title game opponent) as the most likely G5 team to get the bid as of today. The biggest difference in JMU and USM right now is JMU only has the one loss to Louisville.

I never figured UVA being in the Playoff was going to last. I have no clue who the best ACC team is but one of them has to make the Playoff. Louisville also going down to the wire with Cal. Maybe it ends up being Georgia Tech? But I’m not totally sold on them either.

I am curious to see what the CFP Committee does with BYU after the loss. Had they lost close I think they’d have a good case to still be in, but getting smoked is gonna make it iffy. And they probably can’t lose again at the very least. This may end up being a rather drama free group of Playoff teams when it’s all said and done. Especially since the ACC is looking more and more like a 1 bid league.

Selfishly as a State fan I don’t want OM in the Playoff (that ship has probably sailed though)…. Objectively as a college football fan though… A Texas Tech vs Ole Miss playoff game sounds incredible to me. Tech has been really dang good. Lost one close game where they didn’t have their starting QB, and literally every other game they’ve won by 3 touchdowns or more.

I am getting the sense that Florida has called it a season at this point. If you are a Texas fan or a State fan you want to beat your head against a wall for losing to this team.

What I would say about Georgia today is literally everything was working for their offense. They gashed State on the ground but burned them with big pass plays too. State couldn’t commit to stop one way or the other. With Mizzou, maybe their QB issues make it where you can commit more to stopping the run. I dunno, we shall see. I am very concerned about State’s injury situation though. This is a really banged up team and the injuries are in spots where they can’t afford injuries. They may be down their top three offensive tackles on Saturday.

Fascinated by State-Mizzou next week. Mizzou ran for a lot of yards on A&M and still lost by 3 TD’s at home. They are on their third string QB and he really struggled today. If State is healthy enough to field a semi normal version of their usual team, feels like they will have a chance to win that one.

That’s one of the best catches to win a game you’ll ever see. Gus Johnson sounded like a feral animal calling that play for the TV broadcast lol.

Today is excellent proof that State still has a long way to go in recruiting to get more competitive at the LOS. This has been a total mismatch.

State hasn’t been sharp and Georgia is flexing their muscles a bit. This feels like a vintage State vs Nick Saban Alabama game.

Whoever wins the AAC will be the favorite to get in. But someone like James Madison or San Diego State is still alive too.

We will learn a bit more about both teams early next week. State plays a ranked Iowa State in Sioux Falls on Monday, OM hosts Memphis on Tuesday.

State’s was more 25 bad minutes and 15 great minutes.

Season tipped off in the last couple of days. Didn’t catch any of OM’s opener but from all indications it was a pretty comfortable win, I think State plays SE LA next weekend so that might be an interesting comparison with a common opponent. State played pretty poorly for the first 25 minutes against North Alabama, found themselves down 9 early in the second half…. Then close the game on a 44-11 run to win by 24. This is very much a Chris Jans style team, very different roster from last year. I like the length they have and expect this to be a good defense and rebounding team. Going to have to find some scoring outside of Hubbard for this team to be an improvement over last year. McGhee looks like hr will be either a strong sixth man off the bench or maybe eventually a solid starter to pair with Hubbard. Those two guys accounted for half of State’s points so a lot remains to be seen offensively from the other guys.

Will start off a little differently since we have a team in this state chasing a conference title that we probably haven’t discussed enough. USM -4.5 at Arkansas State: Huge game for the Eagles. Kinda their final big road hurdle as the other remaining tough games appear to all be at home. Both teams in the mix for the SBC West division title. ASU started the year slow but has been hot as of late. I am going to take USM to win on the road simply because I think Braxton is a game changer at QB and he should be the best player on the field. Ole Miss vs The Citadel: I am simply acknowledging that this game is being played. You all know what to expect. I will say that you gotta love how the schedule sets up for OM down the stretch. FCS game right before one of your two remaining big games, and a bye week before the other big game (granted State has a bye before the Egg Bowl too, but still). Georgia -7.5 at State: I had forgotten that State played UGA within 10 in Athens last year. And based on what both teams have done to this point this season, I do think this is a competitive game. The biggest asset State has, in my opinion, is the ability to hit the home run ball in the passing game with two game changing receivers. I think State hits a couple of them and makes this interesting. I ultimately have UGA pulling it out 28-23. But I think this is a back and forth game and do not be shocked if State has a chance to steal a win here. A&M -6.5 at Mizzou: I’m calling for the upset here. yes I realize Mizzou is down to their third string QB. But they’re also very strong defensively and in the run game and playing at home. And I have over a decade’s worth of A&M distrust in the month of November that I cannot shake. I do think this is one of the better A&M teams since they joined the SEC and they probably still make the Playoff. But I have them taking their first L of the season here. Auburn at Vandy -6.5: I cannot believe I’m doing this and I may easily look stupid by Saturday night… I have Auburn winning outright and ruining Vandy’s playoff hopes. Call it the interim coach bump, call it a sinking feeling that Vandy, while good, is maybe not playoff good and now there is pressure to win out to keep their spot. I also just really like Auburn’s defense. And well, it can’t get any worse than it was under Freeze… so maybe it gets a little better. LSU at Alabama -10.5: I do not have the same confidence in LSU getting an interim coach bump in Tuscaloosa… This was a beat down in Tuscaloosa a year ago and I think Bama wins this handily too Florida -3.5 at Kentucky: I am begging you as a friend, please shield your eyes from watching this game. It is going to be a gross one. But I have UK winning at home at night. BYU at Texas Tech -10.5: Biggest national game of the week with playoff implications. I think this Tech team is really good, their only loss was with a backup QB starting. Red Raiders win at home and start their March toward possibly hosting a Playoff game.

Interesting to reflect on this now that 75% of the season has played out. I think you can easily argue that Ole Miss, State, and USM have all exceeded expectations that most had at the start of the year. Now it’s a matter of can you REALLY exceed expectations. 1. Ole Miss - has a realistic path to hosting a playoff game, outside chance of playing in the SEC championship, in a year where most expected a step back. 2. State - can reach bowl eligibility in a year where their Vegas O/U win total was 3.5 and not many State fans at all thought they could sniff six wins. 3. USM - controls its own destiny to reach the conference title game, a year after going 1-11.