CFB Week 5 Thread

[Dawg83]

Biggest week of the season so far, several conference games with pretty big stakes.

 

Kentucky-Ole Miss is the big one locally so we will start there. OM is slightly less than a touchdown favorite at home. The thing I keep circling back to is that I’m not sure we’ve learned much about either team. It’s no secret that OM has played a soft schedule so far, I think you can largely say the same about UK though. Don’t get me wrong, winning at Florida is nothing to scoff at, but that’s obviously a Florida team that’s not quite there yet and they matched up poorly with UK’s style. Do I think both of these teams finish the year in the Top 15? No, I do not. But they’re both still good teams and this should be a competitive game.

 

All off-season I had this as an Ole Miss win so I’ll stick with my guns there. Stoops has never beaten an SEC West team on the road and it’s not for a lack of decent opportunities. Many of those losses are to teams worse than this OM squad. He’s done a great job at UK and should be commended for turning a losing program into a winning one, absolutely. But I think there’s a ceiling on his success potential and I expect to see it this weekend. I think it’s close for most of the way and then OM pulls away late, final score is something like 34-24.

 

That said, the game in Starkville is pretty large too. If State doesn’t blow a 13 point lead to LSU and A&M doesn’t lose to App State, this game would be getting a lot more buzz. I think back on the game in College Station last year and how it was basically the coming out party for Will Rogers. Jimbo was content to sit in a heavy 3-8 zone all game and Rogers made them hurt for it. Having said that, DJ Durkin obviously had some success against the Air Raid at OM, so I’m curious to know what he may do differently.

 

This game will be won or lost with State’s OL. That’s been a very up and down unit so far and A&M’s front won’t be an easy matchup. The flip side of this is that A&M statistically has the worst offense in the SEC. That leads me to believe this is a relatively low scoring game. State is a very slight home favorite, I think I lean toward the home team here. A little bit of a look ahead spot too for A&M with that overly talked about game against Bama next week. Mike Leach is involved so nothing is off the table, but I’ll go with State by a field goal, 20-17.

 

Bama at Arkansas is more intriguing to me than it is to most others. People forget but Arkansas was really competitive in Tuscaloosa last year. I think Arkansas may be a little worse this year, but I could see them making this interesting again. Bama is a 16.5 point road favorite, I think they win but I like Arkansas to cover. Similar deal with A&M, maybe a look ahead spot for Bama and they aren’t super sharp:

 

LSU at Auburn - the only thing that gives me pause is this game has a history of being really weird. But Auburn is just bad. Really, really bad. And I think LSU is better than they are getting credit for. I like LSU on the road, the eight point spread sounds about right. Don’t think I would put money on this game.

 

Not a lot nationally this week unless Clemson-NC State is your thing (that’s where Gameday will be).

[rebmus]

Should be some good close games to watch this weekend.

I very slightly lean OM beats KY, but realize that may be picking with my heart and not my head. I'm surprised the line is 1 or 2 points in either direction. 

I'm very hesitant to pick MSU over A&M but will because MSU hosts (same reason I'm picking OM). 

LSU/Auburn- who the heck knows? I guess I'll stick with "picking the home team" like the above two games... Auburn pulls it out. MAYBE?? 

^I wouldn't bet on any of these three games. 

 

Bama/Arkansas- Bama seems to have 1 bad game early(ish) in the season taking a scare and sometimes a loss. Nick Saban has a mini orgasm when this happens due to it allows him a chance to get his team refocused. I see the Tide rolling through the regular season after the Texas 'scare'. No idea if they cover the spread, but I figure they go 12-0. 

 

NC State @ Clemson, I'll stay with the home team to pick in my head. I kind of like this as an upset special bet for NC State though. 

 

Other games of interest: 

#22 Wake Forest @ #23 Florida State. I lean Wake Forest pulls the upset (FSU favored by 6.5)

#9 Oklahoma State @ #16 Baylor. Baylor is favored by 2.5, that line looks about right. 

 

 

[maroontide06]

15 hours ago, rebmus said:

Nick Saban has a mini orgasm when this happens due to it allows him a chance to get his team refocused. 

 

 

LMFAO!!!

[pancho]

and it makes his hair fall out

[Bulldogs4]

I like Ole Miss at home provided they play a complete game. As I mentioned in a  previous post, the portal is creating inconsistent play around the country. Teams with a lot of new talented players are struggling to gel and we have seen it already happen around the country. 
KY is solid but the home crowd will carry Ole Miss to victory. 28-23 Ole Miss with the win. 
 

A&M @ State will be decided (like 83 said) on how State’s OL performs against a very good DL. A&M had no business beating Arkansas but they did. I tend to agree that this will be a low scoring game. I think Tulu will make a big play in special teams and that will help State edge A&M in a tight game (28-24). But my confidence in our OL is still shaky so I am not convinced yet that they are good enough to beat a better defense. This weekend will show if they have improved in the last two weeks. 
 

Bama-Arkansas. It is tempting to say Arky has a chance but they are not good enough. They will play hard and give Bama all they have but it will not be nearly enough. Bama 42-17. 
 

LSU beats Auburn and I know they have voodoo in JH stadium but LSU is much better and I think they win convincingly. LSU 25-Auburn 8. 
 

 

 

 

Edited September 28, 2022 by Bulldogs4

[Dawg83]

Don’t think this has been mentioned here but on top of A&M’s offensive struggles, their best receiver/punt return guy was ruled out for the year this week.

 

Also notable for Kentucky is that they’ll get Chris Rodriguez back this week. He was one of the better RB’s in the league last year and UK hasn’t been able to run it well this year. Granted, a lot of that may be on their OL.

 

Still sticking with my picks of State and OM both winning as of today.

[MSTSatchmo]

OM/UK - Lots of question marks still in this one.  We know OM can run the ball. Will UK be able to?  OM gave up nearly 500 yards to Tulsa, and who knows what the game would have looked like if Tulsa’s starting QB had not gone out in the 2nd QT which OM dominated. I still say they’re pretty evenly matched, so I’ll go with OM at home.  
 

State/A&M - A&M may be one of the biggest disappointments of the season so far even after beating Arkansas last week.  Did they really beat Arkansas or did Arkansas just lose?  State has a better offense, I just think A&M is better defensively than LSU who State struggled with.  Plus Durkin did pretty good against Leach while he was at OM.   A&M close. 
 

Bama by 10+ over Arkansas 

LSU over Auburn by double digits also. 
Clemson over NC State 

Wake over FSU

Baylor over OK State 

 

[MSTSatchmo]

First time to actually see OM this year.  
 

Until the INT before the half, Dart looked better than I thought he would throwing.  Also looks like Heath made the right decision to transfer to OM.  He looks good and needed more targets to stay happy.  
UK is running the ball well, but they can’t pass block worth a flip.  They’ve also had terrible field position the first half and special teams has been horrible minus the long KO.  
And I’ll be honest I had no idea who Levis was and I think a month ago probably the majority of the country didn’t.  Now he’s possibly the top QB pick.  It’s crazy how things work out.  He hasn’t looked that great so far though. 

Edited October 1, 2022 by MSTSatchmo

[rebmus]

Defense bailed out Ole Miss today. 

5-0, I'll take it. 

 

[MSTSatchmo]

Huge stops at the end.   When UK made the 3rd and 2 play, I thought if they don’t score a TD there, they won’t get in.  
 

Im still not sure either are Top 10 teams, but 5-0 is 5-0.  

Edited October 1, 2022 by MSTSatchmo

[Bulldogs4]

Good win for Ole Miss. Gritty win and it does not matter how just getting the win is what counts. 

[rebmus]

43 minutes ago, MSTSatchmo said:

 

Im still not sure either are Top 10 teams, but 5-0 is 5-0.  

Same. 

Both are good teams, and most likely top 20 at the end of the season... MAYBE top 15 at the end of the season. 

OM will most likely get a top 10 ranking tomorrow, but I'm not buying they will end up top 10. Then again, I can say the same for every top 25 team not named Bama, Ohio State, or Georgia right now. 

[MSTSatchmo]

State with a 16 play 49 yard drive.   0-0 after 1qt. 

[MSTSatchmo]

State up 14-0 at the half. 
 

State’s WRs are making plays and they’ve actually run for nearly 100 in the first half.  Rogers has had a few dropped INTs.  State’s defense is also getting a lot of pressure. 
 

It’s far from over, but A&M does not look good at all.  

[rebmus]

Yep Satch. 

1st quarter was just hard to watch for both teams. 

MSU owned the 2nd quarter. Unless A&M comes out of the half better, MSU will blow them out. 

 

IF MSU wins by 10 or more, I suspect they'll break in the top 25 tomorrow with spots opening. 

 

#15, #18, and #21 already lost. 

A&M is #17, they'd drop out and it'd make sense to put MSU in. 

#22 is playing #23, so one of those will lose. 

 

 

[rebmus]

MSU took care of business in the second half. 42-24 final. 

Arkansas battled Bama hard for 3 quarters, but all Bama in the 4th quarter.  49-26 final. 

 

 

[MSTSatchmo]

Big win for State.  They dominated all 3 phases today.  The WRs looked like a different group than we saw in the LSU game.  
 

I don’t know what to say about A&M.  They have ALL the resources.  $100m coach, NIL out the a$$, and look really good occasionally and very average most of the time.  

[rebmus]

It's only the second quarter, but Auburn is pushing LSU around early... 17-0.

 

Mizzou leads UGA 3-0 in the 2nd quarter, LULZWUT? 

[Bulldogs4]

Good win for both State and Ole Miss. Held serve at home which is crucial in the SEC. 
 

Auburn is raping LSWHO right now!!!

Do not know if it is will hold but they are playing well as now. 

[rebmus]

LSU @ Auburn was certainly something. 

Auburn jumped out 17-0. LSU stormed back to lead 21-17. 

The 4th Qtr was two teams turning it over trying to give it away... LSU survived 21-17.

 

I don't bet on sports, but if I did... Auburn firing their coach tomorrow seems like a safe bet. 

 

 

[rebmus]

Georgia with the STRUGGLE WIN! 26-22 over Mizzou. 

 

[MSTSatchmo]

Auburn and LSU both looked very similar on offense.  Both extremely athletic, but very inconsistent.  
 

As “bad” as 3-2 Auburn has looked at times this year, I don’t think there’s as much difference between number 2 and 7 in the SECW.  Bama still looked good without Young, but I’m sure they’d rather have him back ASAP.  

[MSTSatchmo]

I just saw the box score for the Bama/Arkansas game.   -1 yards of offense for Bama in the 3rd and the game cut from 28-7 to 28-23.   Then in the 4th Bama has 3 plays of 70+ yards each. Two that went for TDs.  
I guess they’ll reclaim their #1 ranking tomorrow. 

[Dawg83]

I did not get to watch much of Kentucky-Ole Miss, family stuff took precedence. I did see the end and I’ll go back and watch highlights tomorrow. My big picture forecast seems to have been right though. These are the kinds of games that Kentucky has not shown the ability to win, and that reared its head again. I think Ole Miss is probably not as good as they were last year, but they’re still a good team. Both of these teams feel like they’ll end up around 8-4 or 9-3.

 

State was impressive today, maybe the best performance of the Leach era. I said it would come down to State’s OL and they had a GREAT day. When Rogers has time to operate, this offense can be really hard to stop. That said, you have another big home game next week against an Arkansas team that’s beaten you two years in a row. Really curious to see how that one goes, could end up being one of the best games in the league this year.
 

On the A&M side of things… Yikes. I feel bad for a talented back like Achane that’s stuck in this horrendous offense. I know they had a major injury at WR last week and certainly that didn’t help things. But this game wasn’t close. I don’t know how you justify these type of performances from A&M with that level of talent. Jimbo is certainly not living up to his paycheck. The running joke is that they’re Texas 8 and 4 but that might be generous this year.

 

LSU/Auburn was a weird game, but that’s always a weird game. I did think LSU was the better team going in and they were able to prevail. But tough schedule remaining for LSU that’s only just beginning. Big game against Tennessee next week.

 

What a weird showing by Georgia today. Mizzou is not a good team. It was probably kind of fluky but it does make you wonder if Georgia is more vulnerable than expected. They sill have a few pretty tough games before the year is over, definitely tougher than Mizzou (Tennessee, at Kentucky, at State).

[Dawg83]

Some additional thoughts on OM-UK after watching highlights:

 

Dart is not Matt Corral, but he shows flashes of his potential. Feels like he’ll be really good a year or so from now. But even this year he’s competent enough to help lead OM to a good season.

 

I have been a huge Will Levis skeptic. I still think he’s overrated and that some NFL team is gonna make a mistake if they draft him in the first round. That said, he doesn’t get any help from his OL. I don’t recall seeing a Kentucky OL this bad under Stoops, that is usually one of their biggest strengths.

 

Stoops only getting Brown two touches on offense (not counting kick returns) is criminal. That kid is a game changer unlike any they’ve had.

 

Malik Heath is a better player now than he ever was at State. Kudos to Kiffin for unlocking his potential.

 

I thought Kentucky did a good job defending the run for the most part, but then you look at the box score and Ole Miss still got 186 yards on the ground. I’ve always been impressed with how Kiffin’s offenses can move the ball even when they’re not operating at peak efficiency.

 

If I’m a Kentucky fan I’m really upset that my team lost that game. It was right there for the taking at the end. And some early special teams mistakes should not be overlooked, either.

Edited October 2, 2022 by Dawg83