College Baseball Season

[Dawg83]

Latest D1 projections have State at No. 8 overall and Ole Miss at No. 13. I think that's arguably a tad low for State but not too terribly far off, and then right on the money for Ole Miss. This projection would have USM and Jackson State in Starkville.

 

https://d1baseball.com/postseason/projected-field-of-64-may-18/

 

Sportsmaniac, in regard to your comment, I think concerns about State are more about the eyeball test than their resume. Absolutely State has a great resume. They're a little bit of an odd team to watch at times, though. Below average defensively, can't really dispute that. Offensively I think they're better than they get credit for but there are some guys in the lineup really struggling, and certain positions on the field that they've just had a hard time figuring out what they want to do. Starting pitching is... fine? Very talented Friday and Saturday guys but both have some consistency issues, and Sunday is a mystery right now. The bullpen I'm willing to give the benefit of the doubt for this past weekend, them getting hit that hard by a bad offense is a real head scratcher, they've looked much better against teams who are clearly better at the plate than Mizzou is.

[MSTSatchmo]

Do y’all think State needs to sweep to stay top 8? 
 

I wasn’t expecting State to lose a series to Missouri, but they have been on the right side of some close games against some good teams and some average teams.  Plus both the Friday and Saturday starters have each had a game or two were they’ve been hit hard. So you just don’t know what to expect with them.  For the most part pitching has been been good, but now it only takes one bad game.  
 

OM is intriguing.  Never thought they would have won the series against Vandy after losing Hoglund, but they have one excellent pitcher and hit very well.   They’re a really good team that has just had some injury issues.  What it comes down to with them is can they hit well enough to make up for the bullpen problems.   

[rebmus]

1 hour ago, MSTSatchmo said:

Do y’all think State needs to sweep to stay top 8? 
 

 

I think MSU is a NS as long as they win the series at Bama, a sweep isn't needed. 

IF MSU loses the series to Bama and IF other teams close to MSU in the pecking order win, MSU falls out of the NS slot. 

 

MSU is better than Bama, so they SHOULD win the series. Most good teams have a questionable series loss and MSU got that out of the way last weekend... they'll rebound this weekend. 

 

 

[rebmus]

Once again tonight, OM is proving up my comment about getting out of a regional. 

OM getting 1 win against anyone in 3 games is a great bet, that's been proven all year.

Getting 2 of 3 vs good teams has been an issue at times, but certainly has happened. OM actually pulled it off against NS Vandy this past weekend without Hoglund. 

The depth at pitching was already questionable and is just not good at all without Hoglund eating 6-7 innings as a strong starter. 

OM is tied 6-6 with UT Martin after 7 innings tonight. UTM is 17-27 overall this year, a team a regional host should be able to easily put away with "game 5 pitching". This is "game 4 pitching" struggling with UTM. 

IF OM happens to make it to game 4 in a regional, I'll wager a TON that they'll face a much better team than UTM. 

[Insideradvantage]

7 minutes ago, rebmus said:

Once again tonight, OM is proving up my comment about getting out of a regional. 

OM getting 1 win against anyone in 3 games is a great bet, that's been proven all year.

Getting 2 of 3 vs good teams has been an issue at times, but certainly has happened. OM actually pulled it off against NS Vandy this past weekend without Hoglund. 

The depth at pitching was already questionable and is just not good at all without Hoglund eating 6-7 innings as a strong starter. 

OM is tied 6-6 with UT Martin after 7 innings tonight. UTM is 17-27 overall this year, a team a regional host should be able to easily put away with "game 5 pitching". This is "game 4 pitching" struggling with UTM. 

IF OM happens to make it to game 4 in a regional, I'll wager a TON that they'll face a much better team than UTM. 

Were tied. 

[rebmus]

Just now, Insideradvantage said:

Were tied. 

Ha, yep... were tied at the time. 

Down by 2 in the bottom of the 8th any MAYBE slug it out to tie it back up again... vs UTM. 

 

[rebmus]

9-7 UTM won. 

 

No depth on the mound. 

[Dawg83]

16 hours ago, MSTSatchmo said:

Do y’all think State needs to sweep to stay top 8? 

2 of 3 should be good enough. The only thing that would concern me is if Florida somehow won the series in Fayetteville. Not expecting that but if it does happen by chance then it changes the discussion for sure.

 

If State and Florida are some combination of the 4 and 5 seeds in Hoover and have to play each other once or twice, those games next week could have some significance.

[rebmus]

OM and MSU both picked up road wins tonight. We'll see how it plays out the next two games for SEC tourney seedings for these two teams. 

Arkansas wrapped up the #1 SEC seed with a win over Florida tonight. 1 of the next two games with a win, Arkansas will complete the season with zero series losses... that's VERY impressive if they pull it off looking at the schedule they had in and out of conference. 

 

[Bulldogs4]

Good wins by both the Dogs and the Rebs tonight. Arky helps us out by winning against UF. 
 

State just needs to take care of business w/Bama and get a bye in the SEC Tournament. 
 

Then we can play a few games there and get ready for the Regional. 
 

83 you mentioned our pitching being inconsistent. Losing Riley Self was a big blow IMO. He was a veteran that was looking to have a good year and his injury has hurt. Then Cerantola going off the grid has hurt as well. You have to hope that he gets it together during the postseason as he could be very valuable for this team if we are going to make a run. 
 

[rebmus]

Just now, Bulldogs4 said:

 Arky helps us out by winning against UF. 
 

If the Clarion Rebel has a headline "Thanks Arkansas!" tomorrow, I don't want to see complaints. **

[Bulldogs4]

9 hours ago, rebmus said:

If the Clarion Rebel has a headline "Thanks Arkansas!" tomorrow, I don't want to see complaints. **

Somehow I doubt an editor from Nashville or Atlanta or wherever in the h*ll they publish the paper from will make that kind of gaffe again....LOL

 

Of course this is a completely different scenario. One was for the Conference Championship versus a different seeding in order in the Tournament and having one extra day off. 
 

Bottom line, all you can do is take of your game and then let the chips fall.

 

But we do appreciate you guys beating A&M back in 2016 and honestly I did not think the headline was anything to complain about. Actually it was a bit humorous. 

[Dawg83]

If you're peeking ahead to Hoover, State needs one more win and one more Florida loss to lock in a Top 4 seed and avoid having to play on Tuesday. Ole Miss would have to sweep and have State lose the next two to get in the Top 4. Florida owns the tiebreaker against both State and Ole Miss so either team would have to finish ahead of Florida.

 

State technically still has a path to a shared SEC title as strange as that sounds. It would require sweeping Bama, Arkansas losing the next two games, and Vandy and Tennessee both dropping one game. That all seems pretty unlikely but it's interesting to say the least. State would be in prime position to win the league outright had the Sunday game in Columbia and the Mizzou series not gotten away from them.

 

My guess is most of the key series split the two remaining games and things end up pretty close to where they are right now. The most likely scenario is probably State being the 4 seed in Hoover and Ole Miss the 6. But Ole Miss could grab the 5 spot and then that would set up an interesting late game on Wednesday night...

[Bulldogs4]

Certainly do not want to be greedy but a sweep of Bama would certainly help put the Mizzou series in the rear view mirror.

Though realistically on the road two of the three is always a good weekend. 

[rebmus]

MSU takes the series with a 7-0 lopsided win tonight, goes for the sweep tomorrow. 

Sweep or not tomorrow, IMO MSU is safely a NS no matter what happens tomorrow or in the SECT. MSU is just playing for higher NS at this point. 

 

 

 

[rebmus]

OM picks up the series win at UGA tonight in extra innings 8-5. I expect tomorrow's game to be very high scoring, a lot of pitching has been burned. 

OM is likely safely a host at this point and nothing else matters tomorrow or in the SECT other than the seeding. 

[Dawg83]

EDIT: I posted earlier that State had locked up a Top 4 seed in Hoover, don’t believe that’s correct. There’s a possible scenario involving a 3 way tie with Tennessee and Ole Miss that would leave State as the 5 seed and give Ole Miss a Tuesday bye. So it’s all still convoluted, as you can see.

 

State and Ole Miss both could finish as high as 3, State could finish as low as 5 and Ole Miss as low as 6. State controls their own destiny for a Tuesday bye, Ole Miss needs some help.

 

Regardless of how Hoover shakes out, great weekend so far for both teams. If State gets this version of MacLeod and Bednar in June, they’re a legit national title contender. And Ole Miss is never out of a game with that offense, plus it seems like maybe they are starting to find one or two guys out of the bullpen that can get outs.

Edited May 22, 2021 by Dawg83

[Bulldogs4]

Great pitching by Bednar tonight. A really big win as you mentioned solidifies a lot of things for State. A sweep tomorrow would be nice way cap off the regular season. 
 

State could finish 2nd in the conference (still would be a #3 seed in Hoover) or as low as 5th as you noted. 
 

Still need to keep the mojo going today with another win. 

[Dawg83]

State gets the sweep. Houston Harding was outstanding out of the bullpen, really locked things down after a bad start to the game. State won’t play until Wednesday in Hoover, and will either be the 3 or 4 seed depending on how Kentucky/Vandy goes (Vandy currently leading a close game late).

 

Georgia smoking Ole Miss today but Florida is about to get swept by Arkansas so OM should hold on to the 5 seed. They’ll play Auburn in the late game on Tuesday. Could easily be looking at State vs. Ole Miss in the late game on Wednesday. I’d be interested to know how Bianco would pitch that game, no way State throws MacLeod until Thursday.

 

Productive weekend, both teams got more than what they needed. Hoover shouldn’t matter a ton for either. MAYBE there’s an outside chance Ole Miss could claim a national seed if they win the tournament, but even that is a huge maybe. I’d still have Ole Miss in the 11 to 13 range overall right now. I think State has solidified their Top 8 seed with the sweep.

Edited May 22, 2021 by Dawg83

[Dawg83]

Kentucky rallied to beat Vandy, so State ends up as the 3 seed. They’ll play the UF/UK winner on Wednesday morning.

[rebmus]

Nice road sweep for MSU. I think MSU was going to be a NS with just a series win, a sweep is a no doubt NS no matter what happens in the SECT. 

OM SHOULD be a lock to host after the series win this weekend, but winning 1 in the SECT would definitely lock up a host site. 

OM losing the first game of the SECT is very possible... if not likely. IF losing the first game means OM hosts anyway, I assume to get the SECT over with immediately and rest the arms for the regional. OM will struggle to get out of a regional with the lack of depth on the mound. Well rested arms MAY help them overcome that lack of depth. 

 

Arkansas- could enough be said about them this season? ZERO series losses in a strong SEC including a sweep on the road vs a very good MSU team and a sweep over a pretty good Florida team. Everyone expected Arkansas to be good this year, I don't think anyone expected them to be THIS good. 

 

Tennessee gets a nod for being the biggest surprise- at least to me. Did anyone expect them to beat out Vandy, or even Florida, to win the East? 

 

 

[Dawg83]

Arkansas is one of the better SEC teams of recent memory. I’d love to see how they stacked up against the Vandy team that won it all two years ago. But they are pretty much a complete team. Only question I have is on starting pitching, especially if their #2 guy ends up being out for the year with an injury. But they are so good in all of the other phases that their up and down starting pitching really hasn’t been an issue for them.

 

I truthfully have not watched much Tennessee this year but the turnaround that program has had is incredible. They were a total joke for about 15 years, now they look like a legit national title contender.

 

I realize Hoover doesn’t mean much for the top 5 or 6 teams this year, but I think that’s going to be a really fun tournament. The SEC Baseball tourney has always been one of my favorite sporting events.

[Bulldogs4]

Disappointing loss for OM yesterday but i was impressed with how OM has played down the stretch without your ace pitcher. 
 

If you are an OM fan you have to be pleased with your team. Lost a few games because of pitching woes/injuries but overall the team has played well.

 

State really had two bad weekends 

Arkansas and Mizzou but the other weekends were very good for us. 
19-5 there with a 1-5 against the best team and the worst team in the league. Somewhat ironic but not really surprising because that is the nature of baseball. Mizzou played their best baseball of the year against us. 
 

Still would like to see an effective Cerantola pitch for us in the postseason. That could be a big key. 

[Dawg83]

I am hoping they let Cerentola start the Wednesday game. Low risk, high potential reward if he starts figuring it out. Could be this year’s version of Zac Houston in a dream scenario, and worst case scenario is he stinks and you lose a pretty meaningless game.

 

I actually think State is the best team on their side of the bracket, just don’t know how motivated they will be for this week. I could pretty easily see them coming out flat for a morning time game on Wednesday and getting smoked.

[MSTSatchmo]

Who do y’all think will win the SECT?