Week 5 Thread

[Dawg83]

Enormous game in Starkville, arguably the biggest home game for State since 2014 Auburn. Bama is a 6 point favorite at the moment, which might be the closest point spread in this series since 07? I think the 14 team was a full TD underdog in Tuscaloosa. Very stupid that this is an 11 am game given how weak the rest of the national schedule is on Saturday. Might also be dealing with some rain during the game.

 

Where I’ve landed all week is that while I think Bama is deservedly the favorite and it’s more likely than not that they win, I don’t feel a State win is totally out of the question. This is different from 99% of the Saban era where this game felt like a waste of time just about every year and pretty much everyone knew it going in. I do think State has a real chance to win this one. They’ll need Kamario to have a Heisman worthy performance and for the defense to contain Bama’s explosive plays and force turnovers. But I’m going to take Bama to win simply because outside of QB, I think they are pretty much better at every position than State. Whereas in State’s previous wins they were beating teams like SC and Mizzou with comparable talent to them, this is the first time they’re clearly the less talented team in the game. I’m also someone who is generally very high on DeBoer as a coach and think he’s found a stud of his own at QB with Keelon Russell.

 

I think it’s a highly entertaining game with a lot of points, and think it will likely be close most of the way…. But I ultimately have Bama taking this one 41-31. That said, a State win here means you have to start taking them seriously as a Playoff contender, which would be a WILD turn of events given that there was a large portion of people that thought this team would be 2-3 or 1-4 after 5 games.

 

Florida at Mizzou - Dangerous game for the Gators. I think Mizzou is a good team. I just think they are the masters of finding ways to be competitive with good teams only to lose close. So I have UF taking this one by a FG.

 

Auburn at Tennessee - I’m honestly not sure what to make of either team here. I thought Tennessee looked fine against Texas although their OL got annihilated. The perception of Auburn is that they’re not very good but here they are at 3-1 with two P4 wins and their lone loss is by 5 points to Florida? I may be totally out of my mind here, but I’m taking Auburn to pull the upset on the road. There is something about this Auburn team that feels like vintage Auburn in that you’re not sure they’re very good and then you look up and their record is way better than you’d think. I also have some trust issues with Tennessee. Auburn by 2.

 

Kentucky at South Carolina - Beamer’s last stand? SC actually a home favorite in this one. I’m going to go with SC at home as a rally the troops thing. I don’t think they’re turning this around but I think they can delay the inevitable. However, if SC loses this then I think there’s a very strong chance they’re the first to get the coaching carousel going here in a week or two.

 

Arkansas at Texas A&M - really ESPN? This is the game you put in primetime instead of State-Bama? Dear gosh. This is going to be a gross watch. But A&M probably wins at home.

 

Vandy at Georgia - UGA has handled their business so far, no reason to think they won’t here as well. And then they head to Tuscaloosa in a week.

 

USM at Troy - this is a Tuesday night game? Oh ok. USM looked a lot better against Tulane this weekend. Another tough road spot though. Troy looked feisty against Mizzou a week or two ago so I’ll give them the edge at home.

 

Yeah this is a terrible week of games nationally. Saturday night would be a good night to take your family to a movie because there’s not much interesting football after the daytime games.

[MSTSatchmo]

I was going with almost the same score. Bama 42-31

I do think with some breaks and a clean game penalty and turnover wise, State could win.  Bama’s defense is not what it used to be under Deboer. Offensively though, they’re really good, and although State played well against the run last week they don’t get any pressure on the QB.  The weather could play a big factor also.  
 

Florida close

TN close 

UK by 10+
A&M big

UGA big 

Edited 5 hours ago by MSTSatchmo

[Former Coach]

Hope I'm wrong but i don't trust States OL or DL enough in this one. Bama 42 Sate 17.

TN by a TD or more

UK same as above

A&M and UGA as many as they want.

[rebmus]

Seems like most folks are picking Kentucky while Vegas favors USC.

Vegas was right about Florida last week… 

 

 

[Dawg83]

24 minutes ago, rebmus said:

Seems like most folks are picking Kentucky while Vegas favors USC.

Vegas was right about Florida last week… 

 

 

I am not sure what to make of Kentucky yet. They were the toast of the town after beating A&M but we now know that A&M might just stink.

[MSTSatchmo]

52 minutes ago, rebmus said:

Seems like most folks are picking Kentucky while Vegas favors USC.

Vegas was right about Florida last week… 

 

 

They’re pretty close more often than not.  Unlike AI.  I did so bad the first two weeks of my college pick’em, I let Gemini pick week 3 and it did even worse.  Got 10 out of 24 right.  It did give me a nice synopsis of why they picked what they picked. 

[Vott]

5 hours ago, Dawg83 said:

Enormous game in Starkville, arguably the biggest home game for State since 2014 Auburn. Bama is a 6 point favorite at the moment, which might be the closest point spread in this series since 07? I think the 14 team was a full TD underdog in Tuscaloosa. Very stupid that this is an 11 am game given how weak the rest of the national schedule is on Saturday. Might also be dealing with some rain during the game.

 

Where I’ve landed all week is that while I think Bama is deservedly the favorite and it’s more likely than not that they win, I don’t feel a State win is totally out of the question. This is different from 99% of the Saban era where this game felt like a waste of time just about every year and pretty much everyone knew it going in. I do think State has a real chance to win this one. They’ll need Kamario to have a Heisman worthy performance and for the defense to contain Bama’s explosive plays and force turnovers. But I’m going to take Bama to win simply because outside of QB, I think they are pretty much better at every position than State. Whereas in State’s previous wins they were beating teams like SC and Mizzou with comparable talent to them, this is the first time they’re clearly the less talented team in the game. I’m also someone who is generally very high on DeBoer as a coach and think he’s found a stud of his own at QB with Keelon Russell.

 

I think it’s a highly entertaining game with a lot of points, and think it will likely be close most of the way…. But I ultimately have Bama taking this one 41-31. That said, a State win here means you have to start taking them seriously as a Playoff contender, which would be a WILD turn of events given that there was a large portion of people that thought this team would be 2-3 or 1-4 after 5 games.

 

Florida at Mizzou - Dangerous game for the Gators. I think Mizzou is a good team. I just think they are the masters of finding ways to be competitive with good teams only to lose close. So I have UF taking this one by a FG.

 

Auburn at Tennessee - I’m honestly not sure what to make of either team here. I thought Tennessee looked fine against Texas although their OL got annihilated. The perception of Auburn is that they’re not very good but here they are at 3-1 with two P4 wins and their lone loss is by 5 points to Florida? I may be totally out of my mind here, but I’m taking Auburn to pull the upset on the road. There is something about this Auburn team that feels like vintage Auburn in that you’re not sure they’re very good and then you look up and their record is way better than you’d think. I also have some trust issues with Tennessee. Auburn by 2.

 

Kentucky at South Carolina - Beamer’s last stand? SC actually a home favorite in this one. I’m going to go with SC at home as a rally the troops thing. I don’t think they’re turning this around but I think they can delay the inevitable. However, if SC loses this then I think there’s a very strong chance they’re the first to get the coaching carousel going here in a week or two.

 

Arkansas at Texas A&M - really ESPN? This is the game you put in primetime instead of State-Bama? Dear gosh. This is going to be a gross watch. But A&M probably wins at home.

 

Vandy at Georgia - UGA has handled their business so far, no reason to think they won’t here as well. And then they head to Tuscaloosa in a week.

 

USM at Troy - this is a Tuesday night game? Oh ok. USM looked a lot better against Tulane this weekend. Another tough road spot though. Troy looked feisty against Mizzou a week or two ago so I’ll give them the edge at home.

 

Yeah this is a terrible week of games nationally. Saturday night would be a good night to take your family to a movie because there’s not much interesting football after the daytime games.

I am going to take MIZZOU for the upset. I think Florida looked at the Ole Miss game the way Ole Miss looked at the LSU game. After that I will take Tenn. TEX A-M Georgia But I think it could be close if they are looking past Vandy and ahead to BAMA.  Kentucky wins and Troy wins. MS State will prevail in a massive downpour.

[Dawg83]

Latest models are shifting toward the rain maybe hitting Saturday afternoon and maybe only impacting the latter part of the game or maybe missing it altogether.