Week 4 Thread

[Dawg83]

Loaded week of games. A little irritated at my cousin for putting her wedding on Saturday evening lol. But such is life. Should be a really fun day.

 

Ole Miss at Florida - UF actually a favorite in this game. It does feel like a rather big letdown opportunity for Ole Miss, doesn’t it? I like UF’s roster quite a bit and think this will be an awesome game. But I’m not picking against Trinidad Chambliss until he or OM gives me a better reason to. Rebels win this one by 4 on a late TD.
 

Missouri at State - State nearly a TD favorite in this one, wow! First ranked vs ranked game at Davis Wade since 2017. In an alternate reality Kamario and Austin Simmons would be duking it out in the Egg Bowl this year, but here we are. Mizzou is a good team that can absolutely win this game. Their balance on offense scares me for State. But I think State playing at home, in front of what should be a highly energetic crowd in a night game, gets the job done. Kamario and the offense keep rolling and State scores late to win 38-28.

 

Texas at Tennessee - I love this matchup, odd that it’s happening in the middle of the day. Feeling a little adventurous here, I think I like the Vols to pull the upset at Neyland.

 

Oklahoma at Georgia - loved this matchup before the season when I thought OU’s offense would be improved. It’s not, I think Georgia wins an ugly low scoring game.

 

A&M at LSU - I’ve got some concerns about LSU’s offense but I don’t think A&M is all that good this year. I have LSU winning at home by double digits.

 

South Carolina at Alabama - Bama has been a weird team to start this year. I like sons of SC’s pieces but have no faith in Sellers to play clean enough to win this. I think Bama wins by two TD’s and we perhaps have a really interesting matchup in Starkville next Saturday.

 

Vandy at Auburn - Vandy may be the luckiest 3-0 team to ever live. First road start for a freshman QB, and it’s at Jordan Hare. Don’t really love this Auburn team but I think they find a way at home.

 

Tulsa at Arkansas - i have no faith in Arkansas and Tulsa is 3-0 with a two touchdown win over Oklahoma State. I have Tulsa winning this.

 

USM at Tulane - the Will Hall Bowl. Hard to have a ton of confidence in USM after last weekend, but Tulane isn’t good either. I’ll take Tulane but could see it being close.

Edited Wednesday at 02:10 PM by Dawg83

[Bulldogs4]

Ole Miss @ Florida. I agree that with Chambliss Ole Miss will find a way to win this game. People forget that Florida is coming off an emotional win as well. It may be a bit ugly but Ole Miss wins 34-21.

 

Mizzou @ State. Missouri is a good team but State has seemingly closed the talent gap. I look for State to play well and get the victory 35-24.

Texas @ Tennessee should be a good game. Texas seems to get all the luck and Tennessee seems to find a way to shoot themselves in the foot. Texas 20-17.

 

Okie @ Jawja. Usually when people write off Oklahoma they surprise everyone. Look for them to make this an ugly low scoring game. Georgia wins but it will not be pretty. 24-14. 

A&M @ LSU. LSU lets Ole Miss beat them twice. A&M comes off the mat from an eight count and beats LSU 27-20. 
 

SCAR gets boat raced by Bama in the first half but scores some late to make the score more respectable. Bama 42-28. 
 

Vandy @ Auburn. Vandy’s luck runs out but Aubie is not that good so look for an ugly game. 
Auburn 20-17.

 

Tulsa @ Arkansas. Arkansas finds a to get a win as Tulsa self implodes. Arky 23, Tulsa 21.

 

USM @ Tulane. A once competitive rivalry is renewed. Unfortunately for USM, they are on the wrong side of the talent on the field. Tulane 38, USM 17. 

[Dawg83]

Supposedly State may have Eddie Kelly (the transfer DL that came in from West Virginia like a month ago) available on Saturday. Potentially a big deal given that State has already lost two contributors on the DL for the season.

[Dawg83]

Zakari Tillman also back this week for State.

[DrownInEtown]

I called for Florida to upset someone this year. Out of Ole Miss, Georgia, and Texas, Ole Miss coming off an emotional win into the swamp is 100% the safest pick out of those 3. But at the same time I never expect #6 to play anything other than flawless. I’ll take the underdog Rebs 21-20 in another classic

 

Mizzou @ State. I just hope we’re not looking forward to Bama. I think we’re the better team and should win. Not having Ahmad Hardy, Mizzou is significantly handicapped this year. I’ll take the Dawgs 42-28

 

Texas @ Tennessee. Haven’t watched Tennessee this year. Texas will be more talented than everyone on their schedule this year by significant margin outside of OSU. I’ll take the horns 28-21

 

OU @ Georgia. OU has an offensive problem. The Mateer-Arbuckle experiment has not panned out. Meanwhile, Georgia is kicking people’s teeth in. I’ll take Georgia in a thrashing 30-7

 

Bama @ SC. SC typically gives Bama fits as of late. Bama takes a while to get going also. Wouldn’t surprise me to see Bama down by 2 TDs at half. But Keelon is an absolute nightmare to defend. Bama wins 42-34 in a tale of two halves

 

Vandy @ Auburn. Despite losing, Auburns offense got clicking which seemed to be a concern against Baylor. I think this program will take small strides into ascension the next few years. Auburn 28 - Vandy 17

 

A&M @ LSU. Not calling an upset here. Lane will get better offensively now that he’s 3 games in with a new QB. LSU bounces back 35-17

[Dawg83]

7 minutes ago, DrownInEtown said:

Mizzou @ State. I just hope we’re not looking forward to Bama. I think we’re the better team and should win. Not having Ahmad Hardy, Mizzou is significantly handicapped this year. I’ll take the Dawgs 42-28

State has never won an SEC home game under Lebby. I can’t imagine they are overlooking any SEC team, much less a ranked one. Also I think the State crowd for this one should be really good and that ought to help with any of the “lookahead” concerns.

 

That said, Mizzou is good enough to beat State straight up if State doesn’t play well. My biggest fear with Mizzou is that State won’t get enough pressure on Simmons and he will be able to sit back and pick State apart.

[MSTSatchmo]

Missouri seems to give State problems in every sport which is crazy because one has nothing to do with the others.  I was impressed with the way State handled being down last week.  I think they win a close one.  State 28-24

 

Florida is better this year, but they didn’t end the Auburn game as well as they started.  It will take 4 full quarters and some breaks to beat OM.  I just don’t think they’re that consistent.  OM 34 UF 21

 

Texas close 

Georgia big

LSU close

Bama big

Auburn close 

Tulsa close 

 

[DrownInEtown]

1 hour ago, Dawg83 said:

State has never won an SEC home game under Lebby. I can’t imagine they are overlooking any SEC team, much less a ranked one. Also I think the State crowd for this one should be really good and that ought to help with any of the “lookahead” concerns.

 

That said, Mizzou is good enough to beat State straight up if State doesn’t play well. My biggest fear with Mizzou is that State won’t get enough pressure on Simmons and he will be able to sit back and pick State apart.

Mizzou is certainly good enough to beat us. My concern is the hype we’ve generated probably has developed overconfidence by now. Guys like Saban and Kirby have a pessimistic temperament that killed complacency. I don’t just don’t see that in Lebby as of now. There’s always a good chance of hitting the “mount stupid” peak in the Dunning-Kruger chart when a recently bad team finally gets momentum going. But as you said, this game being a home helps us out substantially 

[Bulldogs4]

State is nowhere close enough to be good enough to be looking ahead. Missouri is the total focus and they are a top twenty team to boot. 
I don’t think you have any worries about that happening. The teams are pretty evenly matched but State’s speed and athleticism should give us an edge. Plus the crowd will help carry us as well.

 I was looking at the tickets remaining and it looks like maybe one thousand give or take. So I think crowd might be right at 60K which will make it a rowdy atmosphere .  

[Dawg83]

1 hour ago, DrownInEtown said:

Mizzou is certainly good enough to beat us. My concern is the hype we’ve generated probably has developed overconfidence by now. Guys like Saban and Kirby have a pessimistic temperament that killed complacency. I don’t just don’t see that in Lebby as of now. There’s always a good chance of hitting the “mount stupid” peak in the Dunning-Kruger chart when a recently bad team finally gets momentum going. But as you said, this game being a home helps us out substantially 

If there was an overconfidence issue, I think it was more of a thing after they smoked Minnesota. And then down 16-0 last week it wouldn’t have been hard to make a case that they were overconfident or simply not as good as people thought. But to come back the way they did against SC tells me that this group can deal with adversity.

 

My other thing that makes me lean State here…. And perhaps I’ll be proven wrong on this… But I don’t have a lot of trust in Missouri in big games. I personally believe that they’ve had inflated records under Drinkwitz by virtue of catching some scheduling breaks and not actually being as good as their record has indicated. They’ve lost 8 in a row against ranked teams and have definitely struggled on the road against quality opposition. Drinkwitz’s best win there is probably a bowl game against Ohio State a few years ago where Ohio State had a ton of opt outs. This would be one of the better wins they’ve had under Drinkwitz, especially in terms of road wins. Mizzou of recent years doesn’t win this game and I’m not sold yet that this group is any different than previous year Mizzou teams. They may not be as good, actually.

Edited 9 hours ago by Dawg83

[maroontide06]

So is Ole Miss ready for the adidas 3 stripe life?  I think that would put all 3 schools in Mississippi with adidas.

[Vott]

8 hours ago, Dawg83 said:

If there was an overconfidence issue, I think it was more of a thing after they smoked Minnesota. And then down 16-0 last week it wouldn’t have been hard to make a case that they were overconfident or simply not as good as people thought. But to come back the way they did against SC tells me that this group can deal with adversity.

 

My other thing that makes me lean State here…. And perhaps I’ll be proven wrong on this… But I don’t have a lot of trust in Missouri in big games. I personally believe that they’ve had inflated records under Drinkwitz by virtue of catching some scheduling breaks and not actually being as good as their record has indicated. They’ve lost 8 in a row against ranked teams and have definitely struggled on the road against quality opposition. Drinkwitz’s best win there is probably a bowl game against Ohio State a few years ago where Ohio State had a ton of opt outs. This would be one of the better wins they’ve had under Drinkwitz, especially in terms of road wins. Mizzou of recent years doesn’t win this game and I’m not sold yet that this group is any different than previous year Mizzou teams. They may not be as good, actually.

How is it that MSU is able to host Missouri two years in a row?

[Dawg83]

2 minutes ago, Vott said:

How is it that MSU is able to host Missouri two years in a row?

They didn’t? They played in Columbia last year.

 

The SEC going to 9 games did create some scheduling quirks where that’s happened though. OM-LSU is a great example…. LSU had to go to Oxford two years in a row.