Week 10 CFB Thread

[Dawg83]

This is definitely a juicy week with a bunch of games that could go either direction.

 

We’ll start with the only SEC game in-state, as State hosts Auburn. The off field buzz surrounding this game is significantly larger than the on field buzz. Auburn is bad but I do have concerns about State stopping the run. There’s also an element of Auburn maybe rallying the troops behind an interim coach (Cadillac Williams of all people, I’m getting old). All that said, State has played really well at home this year and I’m expecting a bounce back game from State’s offense. State is a 13 point home favorite and I think that sounds about right. I have them winning 34-20.

 

The first of two MASSIVE games is Tennessee at Georgia. I am really looking forward to seeing this one and I’m truly torn on who I think wins. Georgia has the homefield advantage but I think UT may be a slightly better team. I’m gonna go with the hot team until they lose…. Vols get the road win and basically clinch a spot in Atlanta.

 

Bama at LSU at night also has a chance to be really interesting. Similar to the other game, I think the road team is better here as well. But man has Bama been weird this year. They’ve yet to really flex their muscles and beat down a good team. I guess maybe you can say they did that to State, but Bama had under 300 yards of offense. Every other game against decent to good competition has had moments of definite doubt. I still think I’m going to pick Bama because I still believe Bryce Young is the best player in college football (no disrespect to Hooker at Tennessee). But I believe this will be a close game that goes down to the wire.

 

Texas A&M-Florida… man is this game a lot more gross than people expected. I’m still unsure what to make of Napier and UF, but I know what A&M is and it’s not pretty. I’m taking Florida here.

 

Kentucky at Mizzou and Liberty at Arkansas are both games that may be blowouts or they may be dog fights that go to double overtime. I think I’ll take Kentucky and Arkansas but don’t be shocked if either of those games ends up being really interesting.

[rebmus]

MSU@AUB is a weird pick. Sometimes an interim coach coaches with nothing to lose and the players rally behind that... other times, an interim coach is a disaster. I'm picking MSU to win, but nothing would surprise me in this game. 

 

UT is the current #1, that's certainly debatable between them and others. The winner of the UT/UGA game should be (will be I'd wager) #1. Give me UGA.

 

LSU seems to be improving weekly while Alabama looks beatable by good teams this year. Still, how often does a Nick Saban Alabama team lose twice in the regular season? Picking LSU at home may make sense, but I'll take Bama.

 

I'll take A&M at home I guess. Betting on this game is dumb IMO. 

 

I agree on Kentucky and Arkansas. Both teams should win easily but those could be surprising games. 

 

 

[maroontide06]

15 hours ago, rebmus said:

MSU@AUB is a weird pick. Sometimes an interim coach coaches with nothing to lose and the players rally behind that... other times, an interim coach is a disaster. I'm picking MSU to win, but nothing would surprise me in this game. 

 

UT is the current #1, that's certainly debatable between them and others. The winner of the UT/UGA game should be (will be I'd wager) #1. Give me UGA.

 

LSU seems to be improving weekly while Alabama looks beatable by good teams this year. Still, how often does a Nick Saban Alabama team lose twice in the regular season? Picking LSU at home may make sense, but I'll take Bama.

 

I'll take A&M at home I guess. Betting on this game is dumb IMO. 

 

I agree on Kentucky and Arkansas. Both teams should win easily but those could be surprising games. 

 

 

Mississippi State doesn't play Auburn at Jordan-Hare, they play in Starkville at Davis-Wade.  State plays really well at home.

[Dawg83]

4 hours ago, maroontide06 said:

Mississippi State doesn't play Auburn at Jordan-Hare, they play in Starkville at Davis-Wade.  State plays really well at home.

And I think that probably matters a lot. The home/away splits for State this year are wild.

[maroontide06]

10 minutes ago, Dawg83 said:

And I think that probably matters a lot. The home/away splits for State this year are wild.

I like our chances if we can get back to establishing the run game.  The air-raid works best when you can run the football successfully.

[rebmus]

I'm not sure why I thought the game was at Auburn, being in Starkville... I like my MSU pick to win better. 

 

 

[MSTSatchmo]

42 minutes ago, rebmus said:

I'm not sure why I thought the game was at Auburn, being in Starkville... I like my MSU pick to win better. 

 

 

Win better

 

I think State wins close, but Auburn’s backs and QB running should concern State fans.  
 

I like UT and can’t  believe the spread is over a TD.  
 

Im going with LSU at home.  If they do win, that will make the last few weeks very interesting for OM, Bama and LSU.   
 

A&M gets a win, but doesn’t make anyone feel better.  
 

UK over Missouri in a good game.  
 

Arkansas over Liberty, but it’s close. 

[Bulldogs4]

I think Auburn is going to come out and play with a lot emotion but at the same time I believe State coming off the open week will play well. Auburn has had spurts of playing well but it has been sporadic. State’s run defense has been inconsistent too. Some games it has been excellent and then others very poor. 
I do think State wins but not necessarily cover.

35-24. 
 

LSU wins over Bama. Simply put this Bama is not the same Bama team from the recent years. Young is tremendous but LSU has been trending up and I think they get the win. 40-34. 
 

UGA wins over a hot Tennessee team. Tennessee is really good but Georgia is going to have just enough defense and offense to edge the Vols. 35-31. 
 

Florida-A&M play an ugly game that A&M wins 22-20. A&M leads 20-14 and UF scores a TD on the last play of the game. A&M blocks the XP and returns it for a two point score to win the game. 
 

UK beats Missouri in another fugly game. 16-13. 
 

Liberty hangs with Arkansas for a while but Hogs are too good and pull away for a comfortable 47-23 win. 

[Dawg83]

Florida wins by 17 in College Station. A&M must win out just to finish 6-6. Is there a more overpaid human on planet earth than Jimbo Fisher?

[Dawg83]

Also Kentucky survives at Mizzou on a controversial roughing the kicker call on a punt.

[rebmus]

Liberty all over Arkansas 21-0 in the first half. 

 

Freeze to Auburn?

[Bulldogs4]

Liberty killing Arky 

I called that wrong completely. 
 

UGA dominating Tennessee. Not completely surprised but I thought UT would hang in there a bit better. Not to this point though. 

[rebmus]

45 minutes ago, Bulldogs4 said:

Liberty killing Arky 

I called that wrong completely. 
 

 

I thought Liberty may keep it interesting until mid/late third quarter, but I sure didn't think Liberty would lead like this. Arkansas trying to mount a comeback early in the 4th. 

[Dawg83]

Tennessee’s OL had a ROUGH day. If this Georgia shows up in Starkville next weekend then that game will be ugly. UGA does have a tendency to sleepwalk at times so you never know, but they have looked like the best team in the country when they are on.

[rebmus]

Props to LSU, I called that one wrong also. 

That may be the best game I've watched all year. 

[rebmus]

Props to MSU for winning also. I watched the end of that after the Bama/LSU game, MSU/AUB was a great late watch.

[Dawg83]

State jumped out to a big lead and had a disaster of a second half. Got it together just enough at the end. Really fortunate to win that game. This is a 7-5 team and at this point it will be a pretty big surprise if they win the Egg Bowl. Georgia next week could be a mess.

 

LSU can clinch the West next week with a win in Fayetteville combined with Bama beating Ole Miss. Imagine typing that sentence three weeks ago.

[MSTSatchmo]

After the 1st quarter it was a mess for State.  Couldn’t block, WRs couldn’t get open, Rogers held the ball too long, interceptions, turnovers, horrible punts, defense had key penalties, offense had key penalties, just bad all around.  Even when they did something good (the onside kick) it was an accident.  

Luckily for State, Auburn isn’t that good.  

 

One positive for State is the kicker made three straight game tying FGs.  

 

Georgia looks very good.  Their defense looked like last year’s defense.  State may not cross the 50, and needs to just stay healthy.  
 

That LSU/Bama game was epic.  Kelly was the butt of all the jokes after the first week.  He should have earned.some respect now (watch him lose to to Arkansas now).  
 

Huge game next week for OM.  Beyond huge. 

[Bulldogs4]

I will never complain after a win but we sure made life difficult on ourselves tonight. 
First, I think we were moving on to the Georgia game in the second quarter. And it almost bit us in the ****. 
Second, credit to Cadillac and Auburn for the enthusiasm and playing hard. But Cadillac did show some inexperience with a couple of bad decisions. First, going for 2 when it was 24-12 was a bad decision. Then not taking the FG later that would have cut the lead to 24-15. 
The two late Time Outs were bit childish and they backfired when the kicker made three straight FG’s. The problem there is it killed all the momentum that Auburn from that point on. And karma bit them when they missed the FG in OT. 
 

Again glad for the win.
 

I called LSU winning and was close on the score.  
Georgia looked really good and they beat UT way worse than the score indicated. 
 

No idea what happens at State next week. UGA should win big but this season has had some weird twists and turns. We will see what happens. 
 

On a down note, USM blew all the momentum they had earned from last week by getting blown out at home by a mediocre Georgia State team. 
 

 

 

[Dawg83]

Haven’t seen this discussed yet but Clemson got smoked at Notre Dame. Glad it happened now honestly, they didn’t belong in the Playoff.

 

Tennessee’s playoff hopes are very much still alive if they can win out. TCU in the thick of it still too.

 

Would imagine Bama’s Playoff hopes are toast now, as are their chances of winning the West barring a total collapse by LSU.

[Bulldogs4]

Liberty beating Arky not a total shock but still surprising. Arky is a weird team. Just not very good this year. 
 

Bizarre play helps Kentucky win but I guess it was the correct call by rule but it is hard to fault the Missouri player for tacking the punter. 
 

Notre Dame whips Clemson so the orange bubble has burst. 
 

And don’t look now, Oregon is quietly playing its way into contention for a playoff spot. If they win out, they will be in (IMO). Kind of pulling for Bo Nix. He was much maligned at Auburn but transferring was great decision for him. 

[Dawg83]

1 hour ago, Bulldogs4 said:

Liberty beating Arky not a total shock but still surprising. Arky is a weird team. Just not very good this year. 
 

Bizarre play helps Kentucky win but I guess it was the correct call by rule but it is hard to fault the Missouri player for tacking the punter. 
 

Notre Dame whips Clemson so the orange bubble has burst. 
 

And don’t look now, Oregon is quietly playing its way into contention for a playoff spot. If they win out, they will be in (IMO). Kind of pulling for Bo Nix. He was much maligned at Auburn but transferring was great decision for him. 

Oregon has been really good but can’t help but wonder if that 49-3 loss to Georgia will keep them out.

[Bulldogs4]

No doubt that was a bad loss but to their credit they have played well since that game albeit against much weaker competition. 
But still like Ole Miss, they have beat the teams on their schedule. And that is all you can do. 

[Dawg83]

Assuming no major slip up against State or Kentucky, Georgia will be in the playoff. Don’t think they even have to win the SEC title game.

 

Big 10 Champ is going to get in, assuming that it’s an undefeated Ohio State or Michigan.

 

If TCU runs the table they should get in.

 

Tennessee and a second Big 10 team will also have a chance to get in. I’d probably give an 11-1 UT the edge over the loser of Ohio State/Michigan.

 

A two loss LSU is a fascinating possibility if they were to run the table and then beat Georgia. But I currently don’t expect that to happen.

 

Ole Miss is not technically out of it but they’d need to beat BOTH Bama and Georgia, and I have a tough time envisioning that.

 

A one loss PAC 12 champ (Oregon, USC, UCLA) has a chance to get in but I think they’d need some help.

Edited November 6, 2022 by Dawg83

[Bulldogs4]

Georgia is clearly better than anyone else. 
We have not played a full four quarter game to date. 
If the State team of the 1st quarter and half and last 3 minutes and OT shows up Saturday, we may have ourselves a game.

If the team that played from midway the second quarter to four minutes left shows up, it will be ugly and bad. 
 

Bama & Ole Miss is intriguing. Wonder what the O/U will be? Not sure either defense will be able hold the other’s offense at bay much.