Week 1 College Football Thread

[Dawg83]

We are now 9 days away from the first few Week Zero games and roughly two weeks away from the start of the season for most teams. I figure let’s get the discussion rolling.

 

Not much of interest in Week Zero unless Nebraska/Northwestern or Vandy/Hawaii are your thing. Vandy being a 7 point favorite on the road against any FBS team is something you don’t see every day. Lol. There was a time 15-20 years ago where Hawaii was one of the most entertaining teams in the country, I miss that for some reason. I may watch some of these games in passing but can’t imagine they drum up a ton of interest.

 

The real Week 1 has some very interesting games this year. I’m into Pitt/West Virginia in that opening Thursday night game, should be fun. Oregon-Georgia, Arkansas-Cincinnati, Utah-Florida, Ohio State-Notre Dame, Florida State-LSU over the weekend will get the most national attention and perhaps rightfully so. The Utah-Florida game is the one that fascinates me the most. We’ll find out if Utah is remotely a playoff contender and/or how quickly Napier can get things rolling at UF.

 

Not much to say about Ole Miss-Troy. Lotta new faces at OM but they should roll in this game. We’ll probably say this a lot about OM until the midway point of the year.

 

State-Memphis is somewhat of a grudge match from last year. I tend to think State wins comfortably but I don’t have a ton of conviction behind that train of thought, not after the near debacle against a bad LA Tech team last year and the weirdness that was last year’s Memphis game.

 

We’ll get more into predictions over the next week or two. My big picture thought about the season is that I think State and Ole Miss are both 7 to 9 win teams that can compete with most teams on their schedule. But we are still living in a world dominated by a select few teams and I feel pretty confident the Playoff will have the usual suspects involved this year.

Edited August 18, 2022 by Dawg83

[MSTSatchmo]

5 hours ago, Dawg83 said:

 

The real Week 1 has some very interesting games this year. I’m into Pitt/West Virginia in that opening Thursday night game, should be fun. Oregon-Georgia, Arkansas-Cincinnati, Utah-Florida, Ohio State-Notre Dame, Florida State-LSU over the weekend will get the most national attention and perhaps rightfully so. The Utah-Florida game is the one that fascinates me the most. We’ll find out if Utah is remotely a playoff contender and/or how quickly Napier can get things rolling 

 

Week 1 will be awesome.  I’d like to watch all of those games listed. 

[Dawg83]

1 hour ago, MSTSatchmo said:

Week 1 will be awesome.  I’d like to watch all of those games listed. 

The 11am TV window on the Labor Day Saturday is pretty weak, but the rest of the day should be awesome. Combined with some interesting Thursday games and a compelling Sunday night game with LSU-FSU. The Monday night game (Clemson-Georgia Tech) doesn’t move the needle for me this year, I wish GT still ran the wishbone. Lol.

[Bulldogs4]

I would like to think that State will be a more polished team against Memphis this year as opposed to last year against LA Tech. Obviously there will be some mistakes but I just believe we will play a much cleaner game overall. 
I hope the defense is as salty as we are hearing that it will be. 
Nebraska-NW in Dublin is pretty cool. LSU-FSU, in my opinion will be an ugly game with neither team looking worth a crap. LSU will be good again in time but I think this year will be a struggle throughout the season. Not sure if Free Shoes U will ever return to prominence. 
 

Oregon-UGA, ND-Ohio State, NCSTATE-East Carolina are a few intriguing matchups. 
 

[Dawg83]

I totally missed that the Nebraska-Northwestern game is in Dublin. I guess that makes it slightly more interesting.

[maroontide06]

On 8/21/2022 at 7:32 PM, Dawg83 said:

I totally missed that the Nebraska-Northwestern game is in Dublin. I guess that makes it slightly more interesting.

Both teams better show up at least 4 days early to get acclimated to the time change, but yeah that will make for an intriguing college football game.

[Dawg83]

Some relevant Week 1 betting lines for you

 

Pitt - 7.5 vs West Virginia (Thursday night)

Ole Miss -21.5 vs Troy

State -15 vs Memphis

Georgia -17 vs Oregon

Arkansas -6 vs Cincinnati

Utah -3 at Florida

Ohio State -17.5 vs Notre Dame
LSU -3 vs Florida State

Liberty -3.5 at Southern Miss

 

I would not touch the OM line, OM will win but too many new faces for me to feel certain it will be a huge blowout.

 

I like State to cover

 

Liberty covers in Hattiesburg

 

I have Florida upsetting Utah (weird sentence)

 

LSU and Ohio State cover and win big

 

Arkansas and Georgia cover

Upset pick of the week is Miami, OH at Kentucky. I may eat my words on this one but I’m not sold on UK and Miami is solid.

 

[rebmus]

5 hours ago, Dawg83 said:

Some relevant Week 1 betting lines for you

 

Pitt - 7.5 vs West Virginia (Thursday night)

Ole Miss -21.5 vs Troy

State -15 vs Memphis

Georgia -17 vs Oregon

Arkansas -6 vs Cincinnati

Utah -3 at Florida

Ohio State -17.5 vs Notre Dame
LSU -3 vs Florida State

Liberty -3.5 at Southern Miss

 

I would not touch the OM line, OM will win but too many new faces for me to feel certain it will be a huge blowout.

 

I like State to cover

 

Liberty covers in Hattiesburg

 

I have Florida upsetting Utah (weird sentence)

 

LSU and Ohio State cover and win big

 

Arkansas and Georgia cover

Upset pick of the week is Miami, OH at Kentucky. I may eat my words on this one but I’m not sold on UK and Miami is solid.

 

I like those picks 83. 

I definitely agree on OM, stay away from that line... too many unknowns including who the starting QB will even be. 

Memphis MAY cover, but I'd bet on State to cover. 

I think USM will be competitive in time, but probably not just yet this year. Liberty should cover. 

Florida should have the talent to beat Utah.

Also agree on the rest until the upset pick... I don't dislike that pick, but I would wager Kentucky wins. 

 

I'll add, I'm leaning West Virginia covers Thursday night. 

[Bulldogs4]

ND +17.5 I like them cover. the ohio state is certainly good but that is a lot of points in what basically is a rivalry type game. 
First game of the year and I know they have a new coach but IMO they will cover. 
 

Liberty wins comfortably over USM. Ole Miss wins but it may be a bit ugly (just kind of hard to tell). Arkansas will drill CVG. Georgia wins very shaky over Oregon but this game may be similar to last year’s Oregon-OSU game. No gimme for UGA and they may have NC hangover. I like the Ducks to cover and possibly pull the upset. 
I would like to see State roll and destroy Memphis but I don’t have a lot of confidence that will happen. But it sure would nice to grind them in a mud hole after last year. 
 

I like WV to win at home in a dormant rivalry game that has been resurrected. Utah beats Florida (Florida will be good again but this revolving door of coaches may turn them into another Tennessee if they are not careful). 
 

LSU-FSU is a pick ‘Em game. Just have no clue what to expect from either team in this game. Maybe LSU wins 3-2. LOL. 
Kentucky wins in a solid showing over Miami of the North. 

Edited August 30, 2022 by Bulldogs4

[Dawg83]

Rain in the forecast for Starkville on Saturday, I have watched enough of the Air Raid in the rain to know that’s not a good thing. I still think State wins but I feel less confident about the cover if it’s a stormy night.

 

All I can think of is those back to back to back dropped TD passes on Thanksgiving night last year.

[rebmus]

5 hours ago, Dawg83 said:

 

 

All I can think of is those back to back to back dropped TD passes on Thanksgiving night last year.

Such great memories for some of us! 

[Dawg83]

4 minutes ago, rebmus said:

Such great memories for some of us! 

And some of us sat in the cold mist, watched our team lose, and tested positive for COVID the next day.

 

Thanksgiving 2021 does not rank high on the list for yours truly. Lol.

[rebmus]

21 minutes ago, Dawg83 said:

And some of us sat in the cold mist, watched our team lose, and tested positive for COVID the next day.

 

Thanksgiving 2021 does not rank high on the list for yours truly. Lol.

I like picking on OM and MSU fans for kicks. 

Kidding aside, people should respect OM and MSU fans. Both fan bases have sat through MANY miserable games, but still hang on and finally get to enjoy a very good year now and then. 

 

Bigger kudos to fans like myself who started following in the late 70s. Back then, it was a BIG DEAL if MSU or OM went 6-5 and got a Liberty Bowl bid. Most of my MSU friends are my age and remember those times... now we're both bowling MOST years and sprinkle in some NY6 bowl games. Times have sure changed for the better for our two programs. 

 

 

[Bulldogs4]

I go back farther than even that. I listened to games on the radio in the 1960’s , attended my first State game in the early 70’s. Maroon is my blood type as my Dad, three uncles on my Mom’s side were all State grads. I well understand losing as we had many lean years in the 60’s and early 70’s with sporadic success occasionally.

Bob Tyler changed the dynamics of the State-Ole Miss rivalry in the 70’s and though Ole Miss has a comfortable edge in the series, it is much closer today because of him. 
Had Ole Miss listened to Coach Vaught and hired Tyler in 1970 after he retired, Ole Miss would have continued the domination they enjoyed from 1947-70 for another 30 years. 
 

As a result I appreciate winning today and while I hated Ole Miss as a youngster, I no longer really have any angst at Ole Miss. Obviously, I want to win when we play each other but outside of that, I generally pull for Ole Miss to win they play other teams and OOC teams. It is better for both of us if we are both successful. 
 

I have seen the great wins (6-3 Bama in 1980) and the miserable losses (24-23 OM in 1983) which is still unbelievable to this day. 
I have sat in the cold rain to see a great win (7-6 over LSU in 1974) and horrific loss to Ole Miss in 1986 when it was 40 degrees and raining. 
 

But they have all been worth it. I will be there Saturday night to cheer on the Dawgs. I well remember listening on the radio with my Dad in our den in 1974 when we went 98 yards in last three minutes of the game to score against Memphis State and then Felker scored the two point conversion to win the game 29-28. 
 

Rebm, you are right in that staying loyal to your team makes the high points worthwhile even if does not happen too often. 

[Dawg83]

I’m only 29 but I grew up with the Croom era so I feel much older. Lol.

[MSTSatchmo]

First game, lousy weather and remembering what happened last year in the State/Memphis game, I would not pick State to cover.  I think they’ll win though.  
 

OM should easily beat Troy with the talent they have on offense.  How quick will it all help though and three TDs is tough to give up.  I still think OM will cover.  
 

I think UGA wins, but by less than 17. 
Some are high in what UF returns, but I think Napier has his work cut out for him.  Utah wins and covers. 
 

Ohio State wins and covers against ND.  I’m not sure what to expect from ND’s new staff. 

 

LSU wins easily.  
I like Arkansas over Cincinnati in a good game. 
If USM can play Liberty close that’s a good sign for their season. 

 

[Dawg83]

The forecast for Starkville looks slightly better for Saturday, FYI. I guess we’ll see.

 

I really like the pieces State has on defense and think they should be able to make life tough for Memphis. The ever present OL question is what I’ll be monitoring closely. If it’s a close game I think it will because both offenses are sputtering. If State is able to run its offense effectively I think they win easily.

 

It really is bizarre to look back on how unlikely it was for State to lose this game last year. State doubled up Memphis in total offense, had a double digit lead at halftime, opened the second half with first and goal at the 2 and came away with zero points, and Memphis had two non-offensive TD’s, including the infamously bad punt return play. State also had a late onside kick recovery overturned via replay, which I had never seen before.

[MSTSatchmo]

8 minutes ago, Dawg83 said:

 

It really is bizarre to look back on how unlikely it was for State to lose this game last year. State doubled up Memphis in total offense, had a double digit lead at halftime, opened the second half with first and goal at the 2 and came away with zero points, and Memphis had two non-offensive TD’s, including the infamously bad punt return play. State also had a late onside kick recovery overturned via replay, which I had never seen before.

It was really a very odd game.  One that a few hours after it’s over you still wonder if State really did lose.  lol 

[maroontide06]

I'll be happy for State to take a win over Memphis.  It'll get the season started off on the right foot and hopefully get them ready for Arizona.  I also wonder when they will announce the game time for the Bowling Green game.  I've got some tickets for that game and I'll need to make some lodging arrangements, but it's all going to depend on when the game starts as to which night I'll need to book a motel.  Hopefully they get that worked out for the TV schedule sooner rather than later.

[BrickCity]

33 minutes ago, MSTSatchmo said:

First game, lousy weather and remembering what happened last year in the State/Memphis game, I would not pick State to cover.  I think they’ll win though.  
 

OM should easily beat Troy with the talent they have on offense.  How quick will it all help though and three TDs is tough to give up.  I still think OM will cover.  
 

I think UGA wins, but by less than 17. 
Some are high in what UF returns, but I think Napier has his work cut out for him.  Utah wins and covers. 
 

Ohio State wins and covers against ND.  I’m not sure what to expect from ND’s new staff. 

 

LSU wins easily.  
I like Arkansas over Cincinnati in a good game. 
If USM can play Liberty close that’s a good sign for their season. 

 

because of the weather, Mississippi State should just install the triple option to avoid drop passes

[maroontide06]

21 minutes ago, BrickCity said:

because of the weather, Mississippi State should just install the triple option to avoid drop passes

The triple option has no historical connection to Mississippi State.  We'd be better off implementing the Emory Bellard wingbone.

[BrickCity]

26 minutes ago, maroontide06 said:

The triple option has no historical connection to Mississippi State.  We'd be better off implementing the Emory Bellard wingbone.

I could see Rodgers under center. Very natural for him LOL

[Bulldogs4]

6 hours ago, Dawg83 said:

I’m only 29 but I grew up with the Croom era so I feel much older. Lol.

and see I have a different perspective on Coach Croom. The record did not indicate it but he did a lot of good things for the State program and he set the stage for the success we have had over the last 12 years. He recruited well (that 2010 defense was loaded with talent) and he left the cupboard in good shape for Mullen. 
I know he was hard headed. From what I understand, McCorvey wanted to open the offense but Croom would not let him do so.

I will always love Coach Sherrill but the last two years were very bad and it took some years to recover from that. Croom did an excellent job of completely rebuilding the program after 2003. 
Yes there were some disastrous games (Maine 2004 and Auburn/OM in 2008. But overall he left the program in much better shape than he found it. 

[rebmus]

West Virginia leading Pitt 7-3 in the second quarter, interesting game so far. 

Former OM QB Plumlee has 3 TDs for UCF (coached by Gus) in the first quarter. It's against South Carolina State, but still... nice start for them. 

 

Tennessee all over Ball State early 24-0, no surprise there. 

 

 

[Dawg83]

6 hours ago, Bulldogs4 said:

and see I have a different perspective on Coach Croom. The record did not indicate it but he did a lot of good things for the State program and he set the stage for the success we have had over the last 12 years. He recruited well (that 2010 defense was loaded with talent) and he left the cupboard in good shape for Mullen. 
I know he was hard headed. From what I understand, McCorvey wanted to open the offense but Croom would not let him do so.

I will always love Coach Sherrill but the last two years were very bad and it took some years to recover from that. Croom did an excellent job of completely rebuilding the program after 2003. 
Yes there were some disastrous games (Maine 2004 and Auburn/OM in 2008. But overall he left the program in much better shape than he found it. 

I’m gonna have to disagree with you on Croom. He did inherit a total mess from Jackie but he didn’t do a whole lot to improve things in my opinion. He gets a lot of credit for cleaning up the program but his teams had more legal troubles than people want to remember. His final season was partially derailed by a gun incident that involved 4-5 players including multiple starters. 2007 was a fun year in the moment but with the benefit of hindsight a lot of those wins were pretty fluky. His offense was an abject disaster, that goes without saying.

 

People think a lot of the guy personally and I won’t begrudge him of that, but there’s only so much you can say about a coach who only won 25% of his career SEC games and never had a Top 100 offense.