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CFB Week 2 Thread

Dawg83

By Dawg83,
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Dawg83 All American

Dawg83

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Big early season games for both State and OM this week, could give fairly big indicators on what we can expect this season:

 

State is a 6.5 point home underdog to Arizona State. State folks have kinda been circling this one as the most important game on the schedule for a while. ASU will be a borderline Top 10 team coming in, although they had an up and down opener against Northern Arizona. First game under the new LED lights for State, and also breaking out all black uniforms. State is doing everything in their power to promote this as a big game, hopefully that means a good crowd.

 

I want to believe in State here, because a win could mean really big things for fan morale, which truthfully has not been good since before Leach’s death. Find a way to win this one and you SHOULD start 4-0 with another big home game against Tennessee in Week 5. And I do believe State is better than they were last year, and ASU is perhaps not as good. That said…. It has been a really long time since State has even been competitive against a good team, much less beaten them. My prediction before the season was that this State team would win 3 or 4 games with a number of close losses, and unfortunately I kinda see this being the first of those. I think the point spread is about right on this one and I wouldn’t bet on the game…. But I have ASU winning. State plays hard and keeps it close for a while, but ASU’s superior experience in “winning time” situations makes the difference in the 4th quarter. ASU 34, State 24 (but closer than that score indicates).

 

Ole Miss -10.5 at Kentucky…. A rematch of what I believe was the most inexplicable result in college football last season, maybe a close second behind Vandy over Bama. I have some concerns about OM taking a young QB on the road to a place that can be tough to play and also against a good defensive coach. But at the same time, I have no faith in Kentucky’s offense whatsoever. I think it’s a bad matchup for UK given that OM’s defensive weakness is probably the secondary, and UK’s QB is (amazingly) Zach Calzada who famously cannot complete the forward pass (except that one time against Bama that defied all logic). I think this may be an ugly game, but I have OM winning it. I think Kiffin will have revenge on his mind after his team pretty much overlooked UK last year. OM wins and covers, 27-13.

 

Other big games to monitor:

 

Michigan at Oklahoma (-5.5) - this is a huge game for Venables to stay off the hot seat. I like OU’s roster a good bit this year, just think they have a really tough schedule. First big game of the Bryce Underwood era at Michigan. True toss up that comes down to the wire but I think I’m going to take the Sooners at home.

 

Vandy at Virginia Tech (-1.5) - We will find out if Vandy has still got it, this was the first big win for them last year that kickstarted a fun season. I am going with Diego again, Vandy takes it on the road.

 

Kansas at Mizzou (-6.5) - sneaky fun rivalry game that doesn’t get played very often anymore. I am taking Kansas in a road upset here. Really like Lance Leipold and think he’s due another big win like this.

 

We will see what other games emerge as interesting.

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maroontide06 All American

maroontide06

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54 minutes ago, NoWammies said:

Another game for Ole Miss going against a team with a RB from MS. I didn’t even know Dante Dowdell transferred to UK until this past weekend. Looked like that was all the offense they had. 

He's definitely bounced around.  From Oregon, to Nebraska, to Kentucky.  Wonder where he'll play next year?

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NoWammies All American

NoWammies

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9 minutes ago, maroontide06 said:

He's definitely bounced around.  From Oregon, to Nebraska, to Kentucky.  Wonder where he'll play next year?

I know he was on both Ole Miss’ and State’s radar this past offseason but I had no idea he landed at UK. He looked good for them and is 2nd in rushing in the SEC so hopefully he found his final spot. 

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NoWammies All American

NoWammies

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As for the game, I’ve never been so sure about a game in my life as I am this one. Stoops’ defense over the years have been one to put a stop to the long ball but has been vulnerable to the short game. That plays right into Simmons’ game as long he utilizes the TE like he did last week and something Dart didn’t do last year. I think Lacy will put up another 100 yard game to help him out and it’ll be something like 37-17. 

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Vott All American

Vott

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18 hours ago, Dawg83 said:

Big early season games for both State and OM this week, could give fairly big indicators on what we can expect this season:

 

State is a 6.5 point home underdog to Arizona State. State folks have kinda been circling this one as the most important game on the schedule for a while. ASU will be a borderline Top 10 team coming in, although they had an up and down opener against Northern Arizona. First game under the new LED lights for State, and also breaking out all black uniforms. State is doing everything in their power to promote this as a big game, hopefully that means a good crowd.

 

I want to believe in State here, because a win could mean really big things for fan morale, which truthfully has not been good since before Leach’s death. Find a way to win this one and you SHOULD start 4-0 with another big home game against Tennessee in Week 5. And I do believe State is better than they were last year, and ASU is perhaps not as good. That said…. It has been a really long time since State has even been competitive against a good team, much less beaten them. My prediction before the season was that this State team would win 3 or 4 games with a number of close losses, and unfortunately I kinda see this being the first of those. I think the point spread is about right on this one and I wouldn’t bet on the game…. But I have ASU winning. State plays hard and keeps it close for a while, but ASU’s superior experience in “winning time” situations makes the difference in the 4th quarter. ASU 34, State 24 (but closer than that score indicates).

 

Ole Miss -10.5 at Kentucky…. A rematch of what I believe was the most inexplicable result in college football last season, maybe a close second behind Vandy over Bama. I have some concerns about OM taking a young QB on the road to a place that can be tough to play and also against a good defensive coach. But at the same time, I have no faith in Kentucky’s offense whatsoever. I think it’s a bad matchup for UK given that OM’s defensive weakness is probably the secondary, and UK’s QB is (amazingly) Zach Calzada who famously cannot complete the forward pass (except that one time against Bama that defied all logic). I think this may be an ugly game, but I have OM winning it. I think Kiffin will have revenge on his mind after his team pretty much overlooked UK last year. OM wins and covers, 27-13.

 

Other big games to monitor:

 

Michigan at Oklahoma (-5.5) - this is a huge game for Venables to stay off the hot seat. I like OU’s roster a good bit this year, just think they have a really tough schedule. First big game of the Bryce Underwood era at Michigan. True toss up that comes down to the wire but I think I’m going to take the Sooners at home.

 

Vandy at Virginia Tech (-1.5) - We will find out if Vandy has still got it, this was the first big win for them last year that kickstarted a fun season. I am going with Diego again, Vandy takes it on the road.

 

Kansas at Mizzou (-6.5) - sneaky fun rivalry game that doesn’t get played very often anymore. I am taking Kansas in a road upset here. Really like Lance Leipold and think he’s due another big win like this.

 

We will see what other games emerge as interesting.

Ole miss cruises in this one easily. 41-7. Revenge game and 100% focused. 

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Dawg83 All American

Dawg83

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16 hours ago, NoWammies said:

Appears Dillingham has upset a bunch of State folks. 

Been a weird week between the Dillingham comments and the videos surfacing of them practicing with cowbells and their QB saying it reminded him of high school games.

 

I’m not sure if bulletin board material is a big thing anymore, and I still believe ASU wins the game. But the way they’ve talked this week, you better win or you are going to hear about it.

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Dawg83 All American

Dawg83

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Last year’s game was one of the biggest line of scrimmage mismatches I’ve ever seen. 346 rushing yards for ASU, 24 for State. We will see just how improved State is on both lines. I feel a little better about the DL, but this OL really worries me.

 

Also still not totally sold on State’s corners being able to cover Tyson. They did a good job against USM, but defending a probable first round draft pick is a big step up from defending Sun Belt receivers.

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Bulldogs4 All American

Bulldogs4

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Not sure why Dillingham chose to make a mountain out of a plain. Typically teams like to stay away from a stadium/campus when playing on the road. No big deal there. Obviously this game has been on the schedule for years so they could have easily made hotel reservations a long time ago. 
Second, there are plenty of caterers in the Starkville area so food prep should not be an issue at all. So why he chose to impugn Texas Tech and indirectly throw a barb at State with the food prep issue is beyond me. Then chose to praise Seattle for their food options. As if that had anything to do with this situation.

Third, when someone discovers a casino in Starkvegas, someone please let me know…

 

Back to the game, not sure what to expect.

Arizona State is in a different position this year. Last year, they came out of nowhere to have an excellent season. This year they are ranked #12 after one game. Expectations are different. More pressure on the team to win and win big. 
Talent wise, I really don’t know what the difference is between the two teams. 
Intangibles: State is a hungry team. AZ State is the team that may feel a bit entitled. 
Depending on Turnovers, generally speaking, games are W/L at the LOS. Are we better enough this year to break even or be better than them at the LOS. That will tell the tale. 
 

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Dawg83 All American

Dawg83

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I’ll give my thoughts on OM-Kentucky tomorrow but obviously that’s not the one everyone is focused on tonight.

 

Wow wow wow. What a finish in Starkville. Unreal moment that caught me totally off guard. State fans needed that so badly. it’s been a really tough few years since we lost Leach. This has been the first cause for true celebration since then, and it feels awesome. I only regret that I was not there to see it in person, cannot imagine how awesome it must have felt to see that ending and rush the field at the end.

 

I thought State played an outstanding first half of defense that was aided by ASU really overthinking it with their game plan. ASU simplified it and ran it down State’s throat the whole second half. The injury to Will Whitson definitely affected State, hopefully he is not out long term. But they couldn’t get stops in the second half. That said…. Holding ASU to a field goal at the goal line obviously proved to be massive.

 

The offense, if we are being honest, did absolutely nothing for 90% of the game. But they hit three big plays and that was all they needed. The play in crunch time was spectacular. Great throw by Shapen, and Thompson has really shined for State in the first two games at WR. The OL is still not particularly good and they must establish a more consistent running game. But the big plays threat, historically, has been VERY rare for State offenses. The fact that this team has the home run hitting potential doesn’t count for nothing, as tonight showed. The fact that you spin your wheels on offense on most of the game and win via three big plays shows just how important it is in college football to have that big play potential.

 

And now, holy smokes, State is staring down a 4-0 start with Tennessee coming to town in 3 weeks. That is awesome. I’m still not sure if this team can get to 6 wins and make a bowl game. But they are clearly much improved over last year and really showed positive things tonight.

 

That was a special night for State. I would say it’s the most memorable win for State football since the 2021 Auburn comeback game or 2020 LSU.

 

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