2027-2029 Reclassification

[pancho]

Myrtle is claiming their number right now is 140.  Hamilton is 136. I know both these tallies  would have been in 1A two years ago. My deal is, do we have enough 1A teams to move up to 2A to facilitate  this?  I have the same issue with all the 4A folks who say they are dropping to 3A. I still se no way that Louisville, Rosa Fort, Ripley, Amory and Mooreville can all drop down from 4A to 3A. I think the cutoff numbers will be adjusted.  Am I incorrect here?

[Rebel Bert]

53 minutes ago, pancho said:

Myrtle is claiming their number right now is 140.  Hamilton is 136. I know both these tallies  would have been in 1A two years ago. My deal is, do we have enough 1A teams to move up to 2A to facilitate  this?  I have the same issue with all the 4A folks who say they are dropping to 3A. I still se no way that Louisville, Rosa Fort, Ripley, Amory and Mooreville can all drop down from 4A to 3A. I think the cutoff numbers will be adjusted.  Am I incorrect here?

I think your correct in saying that the multiplier will likely send PCS, St Patrick, and St Andrew's to 4A. Sacred Heart will likely go 3A/2A. TPCS, and Resurrection will likely go 2A. St Stanislaus and OLA will be 3A/4A pending the double multiplier. What we don't know is if these schools actually apply the multiplier before turning numbers in or if the association applies the multiplier prior to creating the list of schools in each class. From what I can tell based soly on the 2025 numbers at MDE the following splits will be in place plus or minus 5 students:

4A split 470-335

3A split 334-214 OLA non football 

2A split 213-149 Pine Grove non football

1A split 148-15 11 non football in the NE, 2 non football in the south or 34 football.

Likely Yazoo County to region 3 or 6. Louisville or Noxubee County to region 5. So yes if you were bottom 5 or 10 and you turned in a lower number than 2 years ago you may drop down vs going up if you turned in a higher number and is currently in the top 5 or so. The multiplier could send some 4A schools down to 3A especially if those listed above did not have applied to them 2 years ago.

[Coach]

21 hours ago, Rebel Bert said:

I think your correct in saying that the multiplier will likely send PCS, St Patrick, and St Andrew's to 4A. Sacred Heart will likely go 3A/2A. TPCS, and Resurrection will likely go 2A. St Stanislaus and OLA will be 3A/4A pending the double multiplier. What we don't know is if these schools actually apply the multiplier before turning numbers in or if the association applies the multiplier prior to creating the list of schools in each class. From what I can tell based soly on the 2025 numbers at MDE the following splits will be in place plus or minus 5 students:

4A split 470-335

3A split 334-214 OLA non football 

2A split 213-149 Pine Grove non football

1A split 148-15 11 non football in the NE, 2 non football in the south or 34 football.

Likely Yazoo County to region 3 or 6. Louisville or Noxubee County to region 5. So yes if you were bottom 5 or 10 and you turned in a lower number than 2 years ago you may drop down vs going up if you turned in a higher number and is currently in the top 5 or so. The multiplier could send some 4A schools down to 3A especially if those listed above did not have applied to them 2 years ago.

What do you think the baseline numbers will look like for each class? Think that number will drop with the schools numbers dropping like they have?

[pancho]

3 minutes ago, Coach said:

What do you think the baseline numbers will look like for each class? Think that number will drop with the schools numbers dropping like they have?

That is the point that I can't get past. I just don't think there can be massive numbers of schools just dropping down a class simply due to having less enrollment all of a sudden.  It's a moot point when basically all schools now have less enrollment so the numbers all drop and thus the cutoff numbers will fluctuate. My guess is 4A will be roughly from 330-335 up to 470ish. 3A will be 330-335 down to roughly 210.  2A will be 210ish down to 150 or less and that leaves 1A with roughly 145-150 tops. I think 3 to 5 students will be big when we get to looking at theses cutoff lines.

[Coach]

13 minutes ago, pancho said:

That is the point that I can't get past. I just don't think there can be massive numbers of schools just dropping down a class simply due to having less enrollment all of a sudden.  It's a moot point when basically all schools now have less enrollment so the numbers all drop and thus the cutoff numbers will fluctuate. My guess is 4A will be roughly from 330-335 up to 470ish. 3A will be 330-335 down to roughly 210.  2A will be 210ish down to 150 or less and that leaves 1A with roughly 145-150 tops. I think 3 to 5 students will be big when we get to looking at theses cutoff lines.

So you think the number will go up? 1A was 69-151 2A was 152-208 3A was 209-320 4A was 321-476.

[Rebel Bert]

30 minutes ago, pancho said:

That is the point that I can't get past. I just don't think there can be massive numbers of schools just dropping down a class simply due to having less enrollment all of a sudden.  It's a moot point when basically all schools now have less enrollment so the numbers all drop and thus the cutoff numbers will fluctuate. My guess is 4A will be roughly from 330-335 up to 470ish. 3A will be 330-335 down to roughly 210.  2A will be 210ish down to 150 or less and that leaves 1A with roughly 145-150 tops. I think 3 to 5 students will be big when we get to looking at theses cutoff lines.

That's what the 2025 numbers showed me without the multiplier in play or even knowing what those schools will turn in.

[Rebel Bert]

14 minutes ago, Coach said:

So you think the number will go up? 1A was 69-151 2A was 152-208 3A was 209-320 4A was 321-476.

Here is what the 2025 numbers showed me:

4A 470--331

3A 330--214

2A 214--151

1A 150--16

[pancho]

I think all those numbers are probably within 5-8 students in either direction from being spot on.  There still is no way that ripley, amory, byhalia, louisville and rosa fort all drop to 4A without some 3A schools suddenly having nice increases in enrollment. I guess the 4A-3A cutoff is the most juicy one.

[Rebel Bert]

41 minutes ago, pancho said:

I think all those numbers are probably within 5-8 students in either direction from being spot on.  There still is no way that ripley, amory, byhalia, louisville and rosa fort all drop to 4A without some 3A schools suddenly having nice increases in enrollment. I guess the 4A-3A cutoff is the most juicy one.

SCHOOL.           2024.    2025

Mendenhall.      391.       332

Richland.           390.       332

Louisville.          371.       324

Ripley.                370.       324

S Pontotoc.       367.       356

Moss Point.       361.      343

Forest.                341.      343

Mooreville.         335.      403

Byhalia.               333       310

Amory.                332.       331

S Pike.                 321.      342 4A/3A split

 

St Patrick.           316.      *226 (339)

St Stanislaus.     316.      *170. (340)

OLA.                     212.      *212 (424)

PCS.                    *256.      *224 (336)

Booneville.          276.        319

St Andrew's.        226.       *256 (374)

The above info is based on the schools currently in 4A/3A that have been mentioned moving up or down. We all know that if 7A/6A/5A ends up with 24 each 1 school will drop down out of each class. That will be a factor at the top of 4A and bottom of 4A. 

*US News and World Report numbers where else do we get them except from the school. 

(234) is the multiplier number I gave them. 

I am looking at ST Patrick,  St Stanislaus,  St Andrew's  and OLA moving up. That leaves PCS on the bubble with 2025 number. That leaves appx 5 schools that will drop down. I am projecting solely based on 2025 numbers that Louisville,  Ripley, Rosa Fort, Byhalia, and Amory are dropping down. Where are the kids going is the question.  I suspect drop outs, transfers to another school or MAIS, or homeschooling.