CFB Week 11

[Dawg83]

Will start off a little differently since we have a team in this state chasing a conference title that we probably haven’t discussed enough.

 

USM -4.5 at Arkansas State: Huge game for the Eagles. Kinda their final big road hurdle as the other remaining tough games appear to all be at home. Both teams in the mix for the SBC West division title. ASU started the year slow but has been hot as of late. I am going to take USM to win on the road simply because I think Braxton is a game changer at QB and he should be the best player on the field.

 

Ole Miss vs The Citadel: I am simply acknowledging that this game is being played. You all know what to expect. I will say that you gotta love how the schedule sets up for OM down the stretch. FCS game right before one of your two remaining big games, and a bye week before the other big game (granted State has a bye before the Egg Bowl too, but still).

 

Georgia -7.5 at State: I had forgotten that State played UGA within 10 in Athens last year. And based on what both teams have done to this point this season, I do think this is a competitive game. The biggest asset State has, in my opinion, is the ability to hit the home run ball in the passing game with two game changing receivers. I think State hits a couple of them and makes this interesting. I ultimately have UGA pulling it out 28-23. But I think this is a back and forth game and do not be shocked if State has a chance to steal a win here.

 

A&M -6.5 at Mizzou: I’m calling for the upset here. yes I realize Mizzou is down to their third string QB. But they’re also very strong defensively and in the run game and playing at home. And I have over a decade’s worth of A&M distrust in the month of November that I cannot shake. I do think this is one of the better A&M teams since they joined the SEC and they probably still make the Playoff. But I have them taking their first L of the season here.

 

Auburn at Vandy -6.5: I cannot believe I’m doing this and I may easily look stupid by Saturday night… I have Auburn winning outright and ruining Vandy’s playoff hopes. Call it the interim coach bump, call it a sinking feeling that Vandy, while good, is maybe not playoff good and now there is pressure to win out to keep their spot. I also just really like Auburn’s defense. And well, it can’t get any worse than it was under Freeze… so maybe it gets a little better.

 

LSU at Alabama -10.5: I do not have the same confidence in LSU getting an interim coach bump in Tuscaloosa… This was a beat down in Tuscaloosa a year ago and I think Bama wins this handily too

 

Florida -3.5 at Kentucky: I am begging you as a friend, please shield your eyes from watching this game. It is going to be a gross one. But I have UK winning at home at night.

 

BYU at Texas Tech -10.5: Biggest national game of the week with playoff implications. I think this Tech team is really good, their only loss was with a backup QB starting. Red Raiders win at home and start their March toward possibly hosting a Playoff game.

[Raiders 10]

Vandy gonna beat Auburn by 2 TDs

[pancho]

Durkin sound more competent than the right rev freezer and derrick nix be calling the plays.  

[rebmus]

83, the only game I'd pick differently is Florida over Kentucky... and I really don't like picking this game either way. 

 

Since everyone is convinced Ole Miss wins easily this weekend, watch it be a struggle or a loss. 

[rebmus]

53 minutes ago, pancho said:

Durkin sound more competent than the right rev freezer and derrick nix be calling the plays.  

It would be something if Durkin/Nix lead Auburn to victories closing out the season. 

[NoWammies]

I guess the one good thing about having conference games during weeks 2 and 3 is you get to have a game like this late in the season. Only thing I can say about the Citadel game is it should be good for having us with a 1,000 rusher and 3 receivers over 500 yards and possibly 4 if Stribling can get him 130 yards. I would say I expect a heavy dose of Lacy in this game but I hope his carries are actually limited to rest him up. 

[NoWammies]

If you thought the Florida/UK game was going to be hard to watch before, this injury report doesn’t help the cause. Sure hope that Florida injury report looks the same next week.

[Bulldogs4]

1. I like USM to get the win but ASU will be pesky. It will not be easy but Eagles eek out a win: 37-31.

2. Georgia @ State. Tough to decide on this game. Common sense says to take Georgia in a land slide to wallop State. But at the tenth game of the game of the season a team is who they are. I am going to go with the unthinkable. State in an upset 28-27. Georgia has been playing with fire all season and this time they get burned. The breaks they usually get will go against them. I don’t have a fever. 
 

Ole Miss wins but the game is not a slaughter.

A&M wins.

KY beats FL

Vandy over Auburn 

LSU gives Bama a good game just because the road team always plays better in this game but Bama prevails. Closer than expected though.

TT by a bunch over BYU. Hopefully they blow them out. I have never had anything for BYU since the Mountain West refs gave them the game back in 2001 at State. Their OL bear hugged our DL/LB’s all night before they finally threw a token flag in the fourth quarter. Worst ever officiated game I have ever seen in person from start to end. 

[DrownInEtown]

State - Georgia: Mississippi State is good enough to beat a top 10 team. But this is one of the teams I don’t think they could pull it off of. Georgia is great at controlling the ball and maintaining drives. Our horrendous run D doesn’t help that case. We’re gonna fight till the end but I think Georgia rushes for 200 and wins 28-18

 

LSU-Bama: Bamas coming off maybe the toughest 5 game stretch in CFB this year. We’ll see how much they’ve recovered in the bye week. I think LSU is fired up and plays hard to keep this game until the 4th. Ty Simpson clutches up again late and wins 24-17

Auburn-Vandy: Similar situation to LSU, I think Auburn comes out fired up and keeps this game close. But I’ll take Vandy 24-21

 

Upset of the week: Mizzou takes down A&M. I just don’t trust A&M as a top 3 team. I felt the same way about Miami. Mizzou is a top 15 team and could beat anybody. Give me Mizzou 30-20

[NoWammies]

Memphis’ playoff hopes are in jeopardy as they trail Tulane 35-17 at half. Retzlaff has pretty much been perfect going 14-15 for 284 yards and 3 TD’s so far.

[pancho]

memphis tried but failed to catch up.   is USF now the favorite to make the 12 team playoff from their conference?

[Dawg83]

Whoever wins the AAC will be the favorite to get in. But someone like James Madison or San Diego State is still alive too.

[pancho]

will they have to win the conference championship game?

[Dawg83]

State hasn’t been sharp and Georgia is flexing their muscles a bit. This feels like  a vintage State vs Nick Saban Alabama game.

[pancho]

back to some ugly ball

[Dawg83]

Today is excellent proof that State still has a long way to go in recruiting to get more competitive at the LOS. This has been a total mismatch.

[Bulldogs4]

Still under talented. I was wrong with my prediction. Georgia is already good and when you fail to take points, make a crucial penalty and have a costly turnover in the second quarter, you eliminate any chance of winning the game. 
Plus Georgia was clicking on all cylinders today. 
Taylor got some valuable playing time today if there are any positives to take away from the day. 

[Bulldogs4]

USM with a heck of a win over Arkansas State intercepting a pass in the end zone on the last play of the game to clinch a 27-21 win. 

[DrownInEtown]

Unbelievable way to win in the Indiana game. I’m afraid of what’s gonna happen when Cignetti gets his hands on some 4 and 5 stars

[Dawg83]

19 minutes ago, DrownInEtown said:

Unbelievable way to win in the Indiana game. I’m afraid of what’s gonna happen when Cignetti gets his hands on some 4 and 5 stars

That’s one of the best catches to win a game you’ll ever see. Gus Johnson sounded like a feral animal calling that play for the TV broadcast lol.

[DrownInEtown]

37 minutes ago, Dawg83 said:

That’s one of the best catches to win a game you’ll ever see. Gus Johnson sounded like a feral animal calling that play for the TV broadcast lol.

Top 3 Gus Johnson call OAT for sure haha

[Dawg83]

Fascinated by State-Mizzou next week. Mizzou ran for a lot of yards on A&M and still lost by 3 TD’s at home. They are on their third string QB and he really struggled today.

 

If State is healthy enough to field a semi normal version of their usual team, feels like they will have a chance to win that one.

[DrownInEtown]

46 minutes ago, Dawg83 said:

Fascinated by State-Mizzou next week. Mizzou ran for a lot of yards on A&M and still lost by 3 TD’s at home. They are on their third string QB and he really struggled today.

 

If State is healthy enough to field a semi normal version of their usual team, feels like they will have a chance to win that one.

Georgia just rushed for 300 on us. That’s another stylistic nightmare. This far into the season I’m sure everyone knows If you’re throwing the ball against us you’re only hurting yourself. Now the back-end is night and day difference from last year. OL and DL are the biggest holes to fill during portal season

 

Edit: Maybe we can load the box bc their QB isn’t great. Forgot about that

Edited November 9, 2025 by DrownInEtown

[Dawg83]

What I would say about Georgia today is literally everything was working for their offense. They gashed State on the ground but burned them with big pass plays too. State couldn’t commit to stop one way or the other. With Mizzou, maybe their QB issues make it where you can commit more to stopping the run. I dunno, we shall see.

 

I am very concerned about State’s injury situation though. This is a really banged up team and the injuries are in spots where they can’t afford injuries. They may be down their top three offensive tackles on Saturday.

[NoWammies]

No big synopsis for our game today. Now we move on to whether we pull a WAOM or we get the job done. I do fully expect Texas Tech to jump us in the playoff ranking though and we go to #7.