CFB Offseason Thread

[Dawg83]

About two months until kickoff and not much going on until then. Wanted to start this to keep the dead season convo going.

 

Definitely the most hyped Ole Miss season in a long time, probably since the 2009 Houston Nutt team. Does this team deliver on expectations and make the Playoff? Or is it kinda like that ‘09 team that was good but fell short of what many thought they could do. In my mind I do see OM as a borderline playoff team, another 9-3 or 10-2 type year. Gonna have to avoid some clear trap games on the road and win some key home games to accomplish their goals.

 

If you want to keep the 2009 comparisons going, look no further than Starkville, where State just hired a young OC with a history of exciting offenses to follow up what was an offensive disaster last year. The defensive roster might stink, and the schedule is brutal. But I like the offensive pieces Lebby has. If he can mimic Mullen’s first season and pull off a 6-6 or a highly competitive 5-7, I think you have to be pretty pleased with things given how bad of shape the roster was in following last year.

 

It’s put up or shut up time for Will Hall at USM, I believe. Last year was a clear step back after some progress in 2022. Need to show more progress this year.

 

Overall, just a big season of change in CFB with realignment, the expanded playoff, TV changes, rule changes, etc. Will be weird to see the Big 10 now in that CBS 2:30 spot and the SEC exclusively on ESPN/ABC channels. Also we will have a two minute warning in college football this year.

Edited June 27, 2024 by Dawg83

[MSUBulldog]

Miss St. currently sits ranked #29th nationally for the football recruiting class of 2025 while UM sits at #60th per 247Sports. In terms of program performance specific to the transfer portal itself, UM has performed arguably better than any program in the country holding down the top ranking in that regard per 247Sports. I did notice that Miss St. managed to land the top-rated center in the nation out of North Texas to provide snaps to Shappen this season.   

[Bulldogs4]

While it is nice to look at 2009 I don’t really see 2024 as a parallel. The dynamics of CFB are much different today. 
I think Ole Miss will legitimately meet expectations this year or at least will be close as opposed to 2009. 
State is in an interesting situation. Contrary to what most people thought, in 2009 Coach Croom left the cupboard full (QB excepted) and Mullen walked into a good situation talent wise. His inexperience probably cost State a couple of games that year.

I do think Lebby will have a competitive team and if the defense has a pulse and our special teams are solid, we might surprise a few teams. 
The Egg Bowl was at State that year and it will be in Oxford this year. 
 

I do agree Will Hall has to win this year or USM will be making a change. 

[MSUBulldog]

Miss St. doesn't have to win in Oxford this season to be successful imop. MSU simply needs to find a way to finish no worse than 7-6 although the Bulldogs have the 2nd toughest schedule in the nation per ESPN. I see 8 wins as the ceiling although Miss St. is projected at 5-7 so I believe the Maroon can cover that. 

[maroontide06]

On 6/29/2024 at 3:47 PM, MSUBulldog said:

Miss St. doesn't have to win in Oxford this season to be successful imop. MSU simply needs to find a way to finish no worse than 7-6 although the Bulldogs have the 2nd toughest schedule in the nation per ESPN. I see 8 wins as the ceiling although Miss St. is projected at 5-7 so I believe the Maroon can cover that. 

The away games for State this year are just so bad.  State needs to win all of their non-conference games, snag two home conference games, and win the bowl game.  That gets you to the 7-6 mark that you are referring to.  If State manages to win one of their away conference games on top of that, it's icing on the cake for Lebby.  It doesn't necessarily have to be the Egg Bowl as you mention, but that one is probably the most attainable as far as the away conference games go.

[MSUBulldog]

I was reading several articles over the weekend and a downsize to conferences realigning into super conferences like the SEC and Big Ten seems to be that there will be a reduction in out of conference marquee matchups like the one canceled between Ole Miss and Southern Cal for the 2025-2026 seasons. With each team in the two aforementioned conferences already having a strong strength of schedule, programs now see no reason to schedule potential out of conference games which could be costly in the loss column. I've long been a fan of no conferences for the purpose of increasing marquee matchups from teams in opposite corners of the country who haven't traditionally played one another. The SEC and Big Ten already account for 59% of the market share of airtime due to their CFP contract with ESPN and by 2026, the two conferences will combine for ten of the playoff slots. 

Edited July 1, 2024 by MSUBulldog

[Bulldogs4]

Things should heat (no pun intended) up this week with the SEC media days. Still have mixed feelings about TX/OK. They are here and part of the conference but it still feels odd. 
I do think a nine game schedule should be adopted. I know that makes for a 5/4 split on H/A games but it evens out over two years. 
The 3/6 format would seem to be the ideal schedule model. I would like to see State have Ole Miss/KY as permanent opponents and then the other could be Bama/Aub/A&M/LSU though I am not sure how the dominoes would fall there. 
 

As mentioned, barring injury or something unexpected happening, Ole Miss should challenge for the playoff and possibly a SEC championship this year. 
State will be a mixed bag. Lotta of new faces across the board. The big key is winning the 4 NC games. Then hopefully stealing a couple of conference wins. Mainly just having a pulse on offense and being competitive will be a “win.”

 

[Dawg83]

On 7/14/2024 at 9:01 AM, Bulldogs4 said:

Things should heat (no pun intended) up this week with the SEC media days. Still have mixed feelings about TX/OK. They are here and part of the conference but it still feels odd. 
I do think a nine game schedule should be adopted. I know that makes for a 5/4 split on H/A games but it evens out over two years. 
The 3/6 format would seem to be the ideal schedule model. I would like to see State have Ole Miss/KY as permanent opponents and then the other could be Bama/Aub/A&M/LSU though I am not sure how the dominoes would fall there. 
 

As mentioned, barring injury or something unexpected happening, Ole Miss should challenge for the playoff and possibly a SEC championship this year. 
State will be a mixed bag. Lotta of new faces across the board. The big key is winning the 4 NC games. Then hopefully stealing a couple of conference wins. Mainly just having a pulse on offense and being competitive will be a “win.”

 

I’m optimistic about the offense. It’s a portal heavy group but there’s some definite talent. Need Shapen to stay healthy.

 

I compared the situation to 2009 State, but it may be a late 2010’s - 2020 Ole Miss situation where the offense is strong but the defense can’t get a stop to save their life.

[maroontide06]

2 hours ago, Dawg83 said:

I’m optimistic about the offense. It’s a portal heavy group but there’s some definite talent. Need Shapen to stay healthy.

 

I compared the situation to 2009 State, but it may be a late 2010’s - 2020 Ole Miss situation where the offense is strong but the defense can’t get a stop to save their life.

Hopefully Shapen  isn't a Costello or Stevens 2.0.  If he is, you'll need to have either Parson or Van Buren ready to go and without much dropoff either.

[Bulldogs4]

Well one thing is that Shapen has played well on the big stage. He definitely has talent. 83 nailed the key that we need him to stay healthy. 
Costello/Stephens were both in over their heads. Costello had the one big game against LSU but even then there were warning signs with the 4 INT’s.
I remember Stevens throwing lollipops in the Superdome against ULL thinking this ain’t gonna fly against SEC defenses. 
 

So I don’t that is a good comparison at this juncture. But we will see. 

[Dawg83]

This offense is more QB friendly than most so hopefully that is a boost for Shapen.

[Dawg83]

One thing I’ll say about the SEC now is half the league seems to have a Playoff or bust mentality and they’re not all gonna go 10-2 or better.

 

I will be floored if Georgia isn’t in a 12 team Playoff. But after that it feels like a big cluster of teams (Texas, Bama, Ole Miss, LSU, Mizzou, Tennessee, maybe Oklahoma). There’s room for a few of those in the Top 11/12 but several are going to get their feelings hurt this fall. No idea who, this is truly a new era with the expanded conferences.

Edited July 19, 2024 by Dawg83

[maroontide06]

2 minutes ago, Dawg83 said:

One thing I’ll say about the SEC now is half the league seems to have a Playoff or bust mentality and they’re not all gonna go 10-2 or better.

 

I will be floored if Georgia isn’t in a 12 team Playoff. But after that it feels like a big cluster of teams (Texas, Bama, Ole Miss, LSU, Mizzou, Tennessee, maybe Oklahoma). There’s room for a few of those in the Top 11/12 but several are going to get their feelings hurt this fall. No idea who, this is truly a new era with the expanded conferences.

After this two year contractual period with the CFP, don't they want to expand it again anyway?  By how far will it expand?

[Dawg83]

On 7/19/2024 at 1:24 PM, maroontide06 said:

After this two year contractual period with the CFP, don't they want to expand it again anyway?  By how far will it expand?

I believe it expands to 14 teams starting in 2026. So the 12 team playoff is only lasting two years.

 

You would think 14 teams benefits the SEC greatly but supposedly one format that’s being considered is capping each league at 3 bids. In other words, if you finish 4th in the SEC, have fun at the Citrus Bowl.

Edited July 21, 2024 by Dawg83

[Bulldogs4]

14 teams does not make much sense though as then you would have only two teams with a bye. 
16 would make more sense. That way the top eight would get to host a playoff game. 
Of course if they do that then the regular season would need to be culled to 10 or 11 games. 

[pancho]

The SEC will never agree to a plan with limitations on how many conference teams can be in the final grouping.  

[Dawg83]

22 hours ago, pancho said:

The SEC will never agree to a plan with limitations on how many conference teams can be in the final grouping.  

I may have misunderstood the original premise, after review I think it’s actually a MINIMUM of three SEC teams are proposed to be given auto bids. Same for the Big 10

[MSUBulldog]

On 7/18/2024 at 3:00 PM, Bulldogs4 said:

Well one thing is that Shapen has played well on the big stage. He definitely has talent. 83 nailed the key that we need him to stay healthy. 
Costello/Stephens were both in over their heads. Costello had the one big game against LSU but even then there were warning signs with the 4 INT’s.
I remember Stevens throwing lollipops in the Superdome against ULL thinking this ain’t gonna fly against SEC defenses. 
 

So I don’t that is a good comparison at this juncture. But we will see. 

Shapen puts you instantly in competition with other power-5 schools from a QB1 perspective.  Shapen needs to perform well in Starkville vs Missouri for the Tiger's last road game of the season. Missouri is pre-season a top #6 finisher in the SEC for this season. Shapen needs to be clicking at warp speed when Missoui comes to Vegas hitting his should be targets in Lideatrick Griffin,  Zavion Thomas, Justin Robinson, Freddie Roberson and Creed Whittemore. That's a conference game vs a quality opponent who MSU needs to find a way to outscore at home. That game particularly will go a long way in how I judge the progress of this year's program.  

[maroontide06]

6 hours ago, MSUBulldog said:

Shapen puts you instantly in competition with other power-5 schools from a QB1 perspective.  Shapen needs to perform well in Starkville vs Missouri for the Tiger's last road game of the season. Missouri is pre-season a top #6 finisher in the SEC for this season. Shapen needs to be clicking at warp speed when Missoui comes to Vegas hitting his should be targets in Lideatrick Griffin,  Zavion Thomas, Justin Robinson, Freddie Roberson and Creed Whittemore. That's a conference game vs a quality opponent who MSU needs to find a way to outscore at home. That game particularly will go a long way in how I judge the progress of this year's program.  

Uhh the only receiver State has that you mentioned is Creed.

[MSUBulldog]

12 hours ago, maroontide06 said:

Uhh the only receiver State has that you mentioned is Creed.

That's correct. I didn't account for the offseason moves regarding the portal. My apologies. 

[Dawg83]

I am fairly confident State is starting three transfers at WR. All good additions though.

[Dawg83]

https://x.com/rossdellenger/status/1816153089977770308?s=46&t=IJxJ67A7clYGRo5a6ZP_2A
 

If this is indeed true and we are going to 105 scholarships for football, it’s in my opinion one of the dumbest decisions in the history of the sport and will kill fan interest for all but about 10-12 schools. And State and Ole Miss aren’t in that 10-12.

[maroontide06]

7 minutes ago, Dawg83 said:

https://x.com/rossdellenger/status/1816153089977770308?s=46&t=IJxJ67A7clYGRo5a6ZP_2A
 

If this is indeed true and we are going to 105 scholarships for football, it’s in my opinion one of the dumbest decisions in the history of the sport and will kill fan interest for all but about 10-12 schools. And State and Ole Miss aren’t in that 10-12.

They might as well call it the PFL and be done with it.  What's the point of academics now?

[Bulldogs4]

105 is ridiculous.

They should be going the other direction.

65 is about all they need. 
 

I agree that CFB is going down the toilet. The product on the field is going to get steadily worse every year going forward. 

[Dawg83]

1 hour ago, Bulldogs4 said:

105 is ridiculous.

They should be going the other direction.

65 is about all they need. 
 

I agree that CFB is going down the toilet. The product on the field is going to get steadily worse every year going forward. 

NFL roster cap is 53. I cannot possibly think of a reason why college teams need DOUBLE the roster of NFL teams.

 

More than 53? Sure I get it. But 105??? Totally absurd.