CFB Week 9 Thread

[Dawg83]

Very few SEC games this week but there are a couple of really big ones. And some fairly big games nationally too.

 

Auburn-Ole Miss looks like a really interesting matchup. Both teams appear to be better than I expected. Corral is a legit Heisman candidate and Bo Nix has started to play up to his potential after briefly being benched last month. Think this has the makings of a great game and it’s a true toss up. I will give Auburn a slight edge since it’s a night game in Jordan Hare, if the game were in Oxford I’d probably pick Ole Miss.

 

Similar feelings about State-Kentucky. This is obviously a good UK team but they are still vulnerable, and they haven’t won in Starkville since the Croom days. State has been really inconsistent and this game largely depends on which State team shows up. If State can limit the turnovers and penalties I think they have a real chance here, it’s a pretty good matchup for State’s defense. I’ll take State to win a close game at home, but won’t remotely be surprised if Kentucky gets the win.

 

Georgia-Florida should be a UGA win, but the margin of victory may be relevant for Mullen’s future. I can’t see him getting fired this year but that seat is most definitely going to be warm going into next year unless they pull off a shocker on Saturday.

 

Mizzou-Vandy ….. oh dear gosh this game is going to be allowed to be played. Two total train wrecks. Mizzou wins but I actually won’t be totally floored if Vandy is competitive and maybe even wins.

Michigan-Michigan State: not sure anyone expected these two to be undefeated in late October but here we are. Interested to see what happens here, I’ll take Sparty at home.

Upset pick of the week is North Carolina over Notre Dame.

Edited October 27, 2021 by Dawg83

[rebmus]

Florida is such a weird team this year. IF they play like they did vs Bama- it should be a great game. If they play like they have lately, UGA in a blowout. UGA is favored by 14, I'd stay away from that line since Florida is so unpredictable. I definitely like Georgia to win, just not sure if it will be very close or a blowout. 

 

Vandy/Mizzou in the who cares game. Mizzou is favored by 16, I like Vandy to cover. I have a feeling Vandy picks up an SEC win somewhere this year- this is primed for that surprise Vandy win. I wouldn't bet on a Vandy win, but it wouldn't surprise me at all. 

 

Auburn is favored by 3 over OM. If Mingo and Sanders are still out along with Bo Nix having a good game... Auburn likely wins. The OM defense and RBs stepped up last week, they'll need to step up again this Saturday. I lean Auburn in a close one. 

 

Kentucky is favored by 1.5. From my very limited watching of Kentucky- they seem strong with running and short passes. This is a great matchup for the MSU defense. Unless Kentucky throws the ball ~8 yards or more a good bit, MSU will keep them in check. 

 

I'll also go with Michigan State in a close one.

 

UNC over ND is an interesting upset pick. ND hosts so I'd go with them winning... but this should be a great game. 

 

I'll throw in Penn State at Ohio State. Ohio State is favored by 18.5, I like Penn State to cover. 

 

 

[rebmus]

Rumors of Auburn defensive players being suspended. I'll be surprised if that's true. 

 

 

[MSTSatchmo]

I had read somewhere they had some weed violations.  They need everybody available for OM’s offense, even with OM’s injuries.  

[Wcchaingang]

I just got a feeling that Auburn is gonna try to sell out to stop the run and Corral throws for like 400 yards and 5 tds this week.

[rebmus]

Just now, Wcchaingang said:

I just got a feeling that Auburn is gonna try to sell out to stop the run and Corral throws for like 400 yards and 5 tds this week.

This is the gameplan Auburn should go with. With the WRs injured at OM, it just makes sense. I don't see 400 passing yards (or even 300 passing yards) unless Mingo and Sanders are healthy this weekend. 

[MSTSatchmo]

Drummond could have a huge day.  He’s a beast from what I’ve seen. 

[Wcchaingang]

6 minutes ago, rebmus said:

This is the gameplan Auburn should go with. With the WRs injured at OM, it just makes sense. I don't see 400 passing yards (or even 300 passing yards) unless Mingo and Sanders are healthy this weekend. 

I see it the opposite. If Mingo and/or Sanders can’t go the only WR that really scares me would be Drummond. I think you would see some man coverage and Ealy, Conner, and Parrish having some big days and maybe some shots down field.

[Wcchaingang]

16 minutes ago, rebmus said:

This is the gameplan Auburn should go with. With the WRs injured at OM, it just makes sense. I don't see 400 passing yards (or even 300 passing yards) unless Mingo and Sanders are healthy this weekend. 

But that’s depending on Auburn having to commit extra bodies to stop the run.

[rebmus]

Drummond has been very good this year. Dannis Jackson has shown some potential, maybe he's healthy and has a breakout game? 

Assuming Mingo/Sanders are out, let Snoop/Parrish handle most of the carries and have packages for Ealy as a receiver? 

 

[Wcchaingang]

1 minute ago, rebmus said:

Drummond has been very good this year. Dannis Jackson has shown some potential, maybe he's healthy and has a breakout game? 

Assuming Mingo/Sanders are out, let Snoop/Parrish handle most of the carries and have packages for Ealy as a receiver? 

 

I would like to see Ealy get in the slot some.

[MSTSatchmo]

17 minutes ago, Wcchaingang said:

I would like to see Ealy get in the slot some.

I was expecting Plumlee to get more touches this year.  Too many weapons on offense. 

[rebmus]

Just now, MSTSatchmo said:

I was expecting Plumlee to get more touches this year.  Too many weapons on offense. 

Me also. Plumlee has been in on some plays, but not near as much as I expected lined up in the slot/backfield to catch passes. 

Plumlee/Ealy are both HUGE playmakers in the open field with speed... plugging them into catching passes with the injuries sure make sense. At the same time, it's not the natural position for either player so maybe they're just not ready to make that step? 

 

 

[Wcchaingang]

36 minutes ago, rebmus said:

Me also. Plumlee has been in on some plays, but not near as much as I expected lined up in the slot/backfield to catch passes. 

Plumlee/Ealy are both HUGE playmakers in the open field with speed... plugging them into catching passes with the injuries sure make sense. At the same time, it's not the natural position for either player so maybe they're just not ready to make that step? 

 

 

What I have seen Plumlee hasn’t looked very comfortable.

[rebmus]

Just now, Wcchaingang said:

What I have seen Plumlee hasn’t looked very comfortable.

Comfortable/ready... whatever it is, I agree. 

[Wcchaingang]

Well top 3 WR are out and corral for banged up. Not a good recipe for success.

Edited October 31, 2021 by Wcchaingang

[Bulldogs4]

Really good win by State tonight.

TOP 41-19

4 TO’s for KY and 0 for State. 
Pass - Run ratio was just over 50-50.

Will Rogers 36-39 passing.  

That was a SEC record for %. 
Defense played well. Just overall good from A to Z.  

[rebmus]

Ole Miss fans back to getting a dose of reality tonight. 

MSU fans back to excited about Leach. 

 

[Bulldogs4]

I have been Leach fan all along. This team has been inconsistent all year. 
But when we have avoided turnovers, we have been a decent team. Turnovers were killers against Memphis and LSWHO. 
Now can we sustain this on the road next week against Arkansas. Last year turnovers were a killer against them. Can we continue to play clean football? Obviously, you are going to have a turnover here or there. But if we can minimize the mistakes then we have decent chance to win up there. We will see. 
 

Injuries have certainly hurt Ole Miss recently. Kiffin is catching some flack but that is who he is. He is going to stay aggressive. 

[MSTSatchmo]

Big win for State.  Offense and defense played well.  They held UK to their lowest yardage of the year without their top CB.  UK’s QB was off most of what I saw.   Offensively, no turnovers was big, and 36-39 is impressive against anyone.  
 

OM is getting hit hard with injuries right now.  That’s tough to keep any consistency on offense.   Auburn is a good team.  1-4 on 4th downs will be questioned, but if OM completes just one more, you have a one score game probably.   Defensively, OM must have made some serious adjustments at halftime.    Auburn just had one FG the second half.  

[pancho]

What were ole miss defensive adjustments?  I couldn't watch any TV.  

[Dawg83]

I was only able to watch a little of the State game and basically none of the Ole Miss game, so I apologize if my takes from a distance are off base at all.

 

Will Rogers can play. Maybe he’s not a 1st round draft pick type of talent, but you don’t put up those kind of numbers against a Top 15 team without being a pretty good player. At this point it feels safe to assume State gets to 6 wins, now the question becomes can you get to 7 or 8? I think the Arkansas and Ole Miss games are completely winnable. Auburn will be a little tougher but still a game I think State can at least be competitive in.

 

For Ole Miss, this was the fifth SEC game in five weeks, it has already started to take a physical toll and this week it probably cost them in the W/L column. You’re still talking about a team that can realistically win 9 or 10 games, so plenty still to play for. 11-1 was always incredibly unlikely but NY6 contention is still on the table. A&M and State are the only teams left on the schedule that can play with them, so the absolute floor for OM is still 8-4.

[MSTSatchmo]

4 hours ago, pancho said:

What were ole miss defensive adjustments?  I couldn't watch any TV.  

I didn’t get to watch any of the OM game, but Auburn scored a TD on 4 of 5 possessions in the first half.    The second half they had one FG and a few drives with less than 5 plays.  Although Auburn still had almost 500 yards of offense.  
 

Was Ealy injured.  He had 3 carries and 1 reception.  

Edited October 31, 2021 by MSTSatchmo

[Bulldogs4]

With the Ole Miss offense somewhat limited because of injuries, Auburn may have played more conservatively in the second half. 
 

It was one of those games that they had a pretty good handle on even though Ole Miss hung around and kept themselves in the game. 
 

Plus credit to the Ole Miss defense for keeping them in the game and giving them a chance in the second half. 

[rebmus]

Losing always stinks, but I liked the effort from Ole Miss last night. Injuries and lack of depth, you just have to play near perfect to beat a team like Auburn when you have that going on. The OM players could have laid down when Matt went out injured, but seemed to step up and play even harder when that happened. 

 

My biggest concern for OM (other than depth/injuries... which you can't control/fix this season), PENALTIES. It's been going on the whole season, and against Auburn it was timely and bit OM in the butt. OM had a drive or two stopped due to penalties and Auburn had a drive or two extended due to penalties. Without these dumb penalties, the outcome was likely different. 

 

Liberty is next, and I'm sure Liberty will treat this game as their super bowl. 

No disrespect to Liberty/Freeze, but this is a game OM should easily win even with the injuries and lack of depth. IF OM comes into the game unfocused and also keeps committing timely dumb penalties, it will be a close game that could go either way.