My take is NO ONE WANTS TO BE DIRECTLY AFTER SABAN. In the current state of CFB, he might last 2-3 years or even one year.
Much better to be the second guy after Saban hangs it up.
Kiffin has hopefully learned from Mullen. Don’t leave your a year early when you got a chance to fly high. State 2018 could have been a very special year had he stayed one more year (and then left). So no Kiffin does not leave OM. He is smarter these days and money is no longer a factor. He will be the coach there in 2024.
Ray Perkins endured four difficult years after Bear retired before stepping down. Though he was tough as they come. That is a no man slot but obviously someone will do it to be the sacrificial lamb.