Dawg83

Can’t help but wonder if this is trending toward Bianco doing enough to keep his job. Where are OM fans with that, I wonder? Is it still Omaha or bust in terms of making a change? Having said that, I would be pissed if I’m the host team that gets Ole Miss as my 2 or 3 seed. They’re not a slam dunk to get in yet, but it’s definitely trending positively for OM. They’ve totally reversed their fortunes since that series loss to State. Funny how that works out, State is 1-9 since leaving Oxford on a high note while OM is 8-2 in that same timeframe.

If you’ve seen State play once this year you’ve pretty much seen all of their games. Dropped the first game to A&M in pretty much the exact way you’d expect them to. Promising at times, then walks kill them and they’re snake bit with the bases loaded. But Kentucky and Bama lost so still a reasonable path to Hoover as of now. Ole Miss and LSU postponed for the night with OM leading early.

State’s at large chances are pretty much dead unless they do something absurd against A&M and Tennessee. I’m talking 5-1 against maybe the two best teams in the SEC right now. Seems basically impossible. Your RPI is now in the 100’s with two weeks + Hoover left, your chances of getting an at-large spot are like .001%. Get in Hoover is the first objective, and that’s far from a given. Then you hope for a miracle run as the 11 or 12 seed once you get there. It’s all INCREDIBLY unlikely but I guess you might as well try. Lol. If you made me call it today I don’t think State qualifies for Hoover. Too difficult of a remaining schedule and the tiebreaker with Kentucky would require State to beat Tennessee at least twice. I just don’t see it. Ole Miss is probably still out as of now but if you win 3 or 4 of your last 6 and then a couple of games in Hoover then I bet they sneak in as a 3 seed. USM needs to be really careful, they are getting real close to blowing what should’ve been a slam dunk host spot.

Ole Miss on the verge of sweeping Mizzou, State about to get swept by Florida. OM has passed State in the SEC standings. State is tied currently tied with Kentucky for the last spot in Hoover and closes with A&M and Tennessee. Can’t exactly love your chances here. They’re 1-6 since winning the series in Oxford, and all of those games are against sub .500 SEC teams. Just a brutal year following up an all time great one. Very shocking to say the least. You knew the 2016-2021 run of success would come to an end eventually, can’t say I saw it crashing so abruptly though. State probably won’t be down for long, and I still firmly believe Lemonis is one of the better coaches in the country. But this has been a Murphy’s Law kind of season for sure.

At this point you’re basically just playing to see who is bad enough to miss Hoover. Mizzou is probably one of the two teams that will miss out. Beyond that who knows. State, OM, and SC are all sitting at 9-14, Kentucky is 9-15. SC and Kentucky play next weekend in what will assuredly be an important series. State and OM both have a really tough last two weeks, State’s probably being a little rougher. Every game is important for Hoover purposes. State needs to avoid a sweep tomorrow, Ole Miss needs to finish one off. My guess is it all comes down to the last day or two of the season. But it’s incredibly unlikely that either of these teams are going to the NCAAT.

Yeah you definitely can’t point to just one thing with State. When they hit the ball, the pitching is bad. When they pitch it well, they can’t hit. Hasn’t lined up for them all year.

I thought State was turning a corner a couple of weeks ago but it’s just not gonna happen for this team barring something totally shocking. Just a weird year. The injuries have definitely taken a bite out of this team but you can’t blame everything on that.

Yeah there have been a few guys that didn’t perform as expected. Chris Lemonis is still a good recruiter.

The whole “Lemonis has to show considerable improvement” thing is silly to me. This season is the outlier in his tenure here. It’s not like he pulled a Fresno State and won a fluke national title. Two of his first three teams were essentially wire to wire Top 10 teams, including last year’s that won it all. 2020 was shaping up to be another good year too before COVID hit. No coach at a major program can constantly miss the NCAAT and keep their job, but that happening seems incredibly unlikely with Lemonis. This year is just one of those years where things don’t work out, all of the elite programs have them from time to time. His recruiting has been perfectly fine, too.

Seems a near certainty we will have a coaching search in Oxford in about a month. No such concern for State but definitely some off-season regrouping on the horizon. This was not a young team so a weird year all around. Maybe they hit the portal hard, maybe next year they take some lumps yet again, I’m not sure.

Yeah that should just about do it for State’s NCAA chances. Realistically would need to go 5-4 or 6-3 against Florida, A&M, and Tennessee. Doesn’t seem like it’s in the cards. And I don’t think they have the pitching to go on a run and win the SEC Tourney.

It really is something to behold how State and OM are almost mirror images of one another this year. The OM-Arkansas game tonight felt like half a dozen different State losses I’ve watched this season.

That was UGLY today for State. I guess if there’s a silver lining it’s that you go into a Sunday rubber game with your best pen arms totally fresh. Hard to paint tomorrow’s game as anything other than a must win for NCAAT purposes.

Ole Miss gets a big Friday night win at Arkansas tonight. State was dominant at Mizzou. DeLucia for OM and Brandon Smith for State have both been excellent in recent weeks as Game 1 starters, regardless of what the rest of their teams have done.

D1 and Baseball America both have State in the First Four Out, so they’ve definitely had some movement in the last couple of weeks. Ole Miss firmly out in both projections, USM is currently a Top 8 seed in both. State just needs to keep winning series. 4-2 against Mizzou and Florida the next two weeks feels like a must. Ole Miss needs wins too but Fayetteville is a tough place to go looking for them. But who knows, the West has been kinda weird this year.

State’s RPI is a big issue. So is their nonconference SOS. Most SEC teams can get in the NCAAT with 13 or 14 conference wins, I’m not so sure State doesn’t need 15+. 15-15 probably is enough to get in. 14-16 and you’re gonna need a win or two in Hoover. 13-17 or worse and you pretty much have to win the SEC Tourney. OM is probably in that group that can get in with 13 or 14 wins. But that’s going to be hard to get to. Not impossible, but very difficult.

Ole Miss takes the Governor’s Cup, so it’s a 2-2 season split between State and OM. Which is probably about right, very little difference in these two teams. I don’t think this game changes much in either direction. Ole Miss is still way behind the 8 ball, State maybe slightly less but still needing 6-7 more SEC wins.

6-12 with trips to Fayetteville and Baton Rouge still left on the schedule is a really bad spot to be in for Ole Miss. Would take something truly incredible for them to make the NCAAT. State is still alive. Lots of work yet to do but it’s out there for the taking. The Gov. Cup is a big game, then series against Mizzou and Florida the next two weeks that you probably need to win as well.

I do know that 2002 was the last time both teams missed the NCAA Tourney.

State’s is not any better. Kohn and Hunt are the two best arms out of the pen and both are probably burned for tomorrow. Interesting rubber game on Saturday, but let’s be real, these are two bad teams. Tomorrow may be significant in terms of making it to Hoover or not but that feels like maybe the extent of it. I lean heavily toward neither of these teams are making the NCAAT.

State jumps ahead on a two run homer. I did not lie when I said the bullpens would be interesting.

Ole Miss has also left a ton of guys on base and let State hang around. All four runs for OM on solo homers so far. Bullpen game now between two bad bullpens, this should be something.

It is almost impressive to see all the different ways this State team gets runners on base and fails to score them. Lol. I don’t know if I have ever in my life seen a starting pitcher throw 100 pitches in 4 innings and only allow one run.

To be fair, it’s not like OM’s offense was much better last night. All of their runs also came on two homers, they just so happened to take advantage of the Yeager error and had a couple of guys on base when Graham went deep. I still don’t hate State’s chances the next two days, Preston Johnson and Cade Smith are good enough to give you winning starts. This offense has to actually hit, though. Feels like State always has something off this year. When the pitching is good, they don’t hit well. When they finally start hitting, the pitching falls apart.

Either one is going to have to win 14 or so SEC games to get in. If you do that then I feel like you are probably deserving. If you don’t do that then it’s a moot point. Both are sitting at 6-10 with 14 SEC games left. You go 8-6 or 9-5 the rest of the way and I feel like you’ve earned your spot.