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Way Too Early CFB Thread


Dawg83
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The media picked Ole Miss to finish 4th in the West and State 6th. It’s kind of weird for me, that seems about right for OM but their schedule may allow them to finish 2nd or 3rd. On the other hand, that seems low for State but with their schedule it could end up being spot on.

 

To me that’s the biggest difference in the two teams’ outlook this year. One gets Kentucky at home and also plays Vandy, the other gets UK on the road and has to play Georgia. Ole Miss will be an easy favorite to go 2-0 against the East, State is looking at 1-1 at best. And then you get into the normal rigors of playing in the West that both get to deal with.

Edited by Dawg83
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West: 

Bama and the rest.

East:

UGA and the rest, then Vandy.

 

"Between 3-9 wins" is a long running joke, but I honestly can see OM/MSU finishing 2nd or 7th in the West this year. 

With the transfer portal and NIL, a LOT can change year to year with teams now. 

 

 

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46 minutes ago, pancho said:

the UK game will be a good barometer for Ole Miss as they should be undefeated when they play UK. Then get Vandy and a messed up Auburn team and they just mite be 7-0 heading down to Baton Rouge.

A lot this season will depend on whether or not Ole Miss went shopping for defensive players. The offense probably won't be as prolific so the D will have to step it up. I wasn't too impressed with Altmyer (if he ends up as the starting QB).

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The coaching staff turnover will also be interesting to see with Ole Miss. Lebby and Durkin were both highly regarded coordinators and now both are gone. 
 

The way the schedule lines up for OM reminds me so much of State’s 2012 schedule (the infamous “We Believe” year). That State team started 7-0 and finished the year by losing 5 of their last 6. It’s entirely possible for OM to be 7-0 when they go to Baton Rouge and us still not have a clue how good they actually are. As soft as the front half of the schedule is, the back half is pretty brutal.

Edited by Dawg83
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One thing that has kinda surprised me about State fans is the lack of buy in on Will Rogers. I get that he’s likely not going to be a high draft pick when he finishes college, and Sawyer Robertson had the recruiting buzz so people want to see him play.

 

Rogers had a pretty dang good year last year though. And was only a true sophomore at the time. Maybe his ceiling is lower than some other QB’s in the league but you’re not going to see much better QB play than what you saw from him in certain games last year, several of them being SEC games on the road. I was at Jordan Hare for that comeback, Rogers was special in that game.

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From MSU's page: 2021 Season (Sophomore)
"Started all 13 games … Led the SEC in passing yards per game (364.5) … Finished third in the FBS in total passing yards (4,739) … His 4,739 passing yards were the third most in SEC single-season history … Ranked second in the SEC and seventh in the nation in passing touchdowns (36) … Joined 2019 Heisman Trophy winner Joe Burrow of LSU as the only quarterbacks in college football over the last 22 seasons to throw for 4,700+ yards and 35+ touchdowns while completing at least 73 percent of passes … Also joined Burrow as the only SEC quarterbacks to average 360+ passing yards per game game in a season since at least 2005 … After breaking nearly every freshman passing mark in MSU history in 2020, broke 25 more records during his sophomore season in 2021, including Dak Prescott’s records for single-season total offense, passing yards and passing touchdowns that Prescott set as a fourth-year junior and fifth-year senior … Finished the regular season with a streak of 10 straight 300+ yard passing games … At the time, the only quarterbacks with a longer streak dating back to 2004 were fellow Mike Leach proteges Graham Harrell (16) and Gardner Minshew II (11) … Led the SEC and set a school record in red-zone touchdown passes (26) … Delivered impressive numbers in the fourth quarter during the regular season: passing yards – 1,045 (1st FBS), completion percentage – 76.7 (1st SEC), passing touchdowns – 11 (1st SEC, 2nd FBS), completions for a first down – 57 (1st FBS), completions for 15+ yards – 20 (T-1st SEC) and completions for 25+ yards – 7 (2nd SEC) … In SEC games: passing yards per game – 372.1 (1st), passing yards – 2,977 (1st), completion percentage – 74.7 (1st), passing touchdowns – 22 (2nd), 300-yard passing games – 8 (1st), 400-yard passing games – 3 (1st)."

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I do think part of it is that State fans had gotten so used to having a running QB that it’s weird to have a pure pocket passer that isn’t really a threat with his legs.

 

There’s also the whole “system QB” thing, but I’ve always thought that if the system is working with this guy running it, who cares? His only truly bad game last year was against Bama, and MAYBE the bowl game but his OL was a shell of itself by that point.

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I have bought in on Will Rogers. I think he is heck of a good QB. How his surrounding cast plays will determine a lot on how people perceive him.

Plus, there are a lot of fans who judge players by the Egg Bowl. Had he won of these two games, possibly in dramatic fashion, his perception would be higher (IMO). In the 2020 game, despite some bad fortune, he almost engineered a great comeback. Last year, Ole Miss was the better team but guys dropping TD passes were not his fault, though I believe he did overthrow one potential TD. 
If the offensive line is solid this year, I think he will have a tremendous season. The schedule is very difficult. We could have a really good team and finish with 5-6-7 wins. There are probably half a dozen games that as of now can be viewed as toss up games. 

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nice story this month on rockey felker in the today magazine (mississippi electric power association)

 

i was in high school in jackson (tn) when he played, he won 29 games in a row at brownsville (tn)

 

my wife made the long drive from tupelo to the sun bowl for the mississippi state win over north carolina

 

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What a great trip as back then the Sun Bowl was very prestigious and just under the Big 4 bowls. (Sugar, Orange, Rose and Cotton). 
El Paso laid out the red carpet for teams fans.

 

A side note is they had a rare snow fall overnight before the game and there was snow on the ground around the field at game time. 
 

I remember watching it on TV. Was a great game and win by State over NC. 

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4 weeks from now State and OM will have already played their first game and most of us will be watching LSU vs Florida State on a Sunday night.

 

Preseason camp has begun and I think we are no longer in the “way too early” territory.

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