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Way Too Early CFB Thread


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We’re still two months from kickoff but never too early to start looking forward to the fall. This definitely is shaping up to be an interesting year.

 

State returns a bunch but the schedule is rough. Georgia and at Kentucky as your two East opponents is about as tough as it gets at the moment. I find State’s first three games to be really interesting (Memphis, at Arizona, at LSU). I would expect State to win the first two but both feel like they have the potential to be patented Mike Leach WTF losses. On the flip side, I kinda like playing LSU early in Kelly’s first year and State was weirdly good in road SEC games last year (beat A&M and Auburn and should have beaten Arkansas). Personnel-wise my biggest questions are replacing Charles Cross on the OL and getting more consistent DB play.

 

I generally really like the roster State brings back and think they have the potential to win 8 and perhaps as many as 10 games. But I could also see 5 to 7 wins if some things don’t go according to plan. Some view this as a hot seat year for Leach, I personally don’t really think so, but we’ll just have to see how the season goes. As we sit here today my gut says this is an 8-4 team, but with Mike Leach it’s kinda silly to guess on who the 8 and who the 4 might be.

 

Ole Miss is a bit of a mystery to me. Lots of transfers brought in to replace key departures from last year. Normally I’d be concerned about that but then I took one look at OM’s schedule and realized this team is probably starting 7-0 or 6-1 regardless. It’s a very backloaded schedule with a super manageable front half. We may not know exactly how good this team is until November. I can’t imagine a scenario where this team doesn’t win at least 7 or 8 with that schedule, and 9 or 10 isn’t impossible. I do think they’ll probably be not quite as good as last year but still a good team.

 

Interesting year for USM too as they play their first season in the Sun Belt. I still really like the Will Hall hire and think it’s only a matter of time before he starts having success.

 

 

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1 hour ago, Dawg83 said:

We’re still two months from kickoff but never too early to start looking forward to the fall. This definitely is shaping up to be an interesting year.

 

State returns a bunch but the schedule is rough. Georgia and at Kentucky as your two East opponents is about as tough as it gets at the moment. I find State’s first three games to be really interesting (Memphis, at Arizona, at LSU). I would expect State to win the first two but both feel like they have the potential to be patented Mike Leach WTF losses. On the flip side, I kinda like playing LSU early in Kelly’s first year and State was weirdly good in road SEC games last year (beat A&M and Auburn and should have beaten Arkansas). Personnel-wise my biggest questions are replacing Charles Cross on the OL and getting more consistent DB play.

 

I generally really like the roster State brings back and think they have the potential to win 8 and perhaps as many as 10 games. But I could also see 5 to 7 wins if some things don’t go according to plan. Some view this as a hot seat year for Leach, I personally don’t really think so, but we’ll just have to see how the season goes. As we sit here today my gut says this is an 8-4 team, but with Mike Leach it’s kinda silly to guess on who the 8 and who the 4 might be.

 

Ole Miss is a bit of a mystery to me. Lots of transfers brought in to replace key departures from last year. Normally I’d be concerned about that but then I took one look at OM’s schedule and realized this team is probably starting 7-0 or 6-1 regardless. It’s a very backloaded schedule with a super manageable front half. We may not know exactly how good this team is until November. I can’t imagine a scenario where this team doesn’t win at least 7 or 8 with that schedule, and 9 or 10 isn’t impossible. I do think they’ll probably be not quite as good as last year but still a good team.

 

Interesting year for USM too as they play their first season in the Sun Belt. I still really like the Will Hall hire and think it’s only a matter of time before he starts having success.

 

 

How is it that MSU is playing Georgia again? I know Kentucky is the permanent east opponent but MSU just played them in 2020. I thought it rotated 

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43 minutes ago, Vott said:

How is it that MSU is playing Georgia again? I know Kentucky is the permanent east opponent but MSU just played them in 2020. I thought it rotated 

They were not supposed to play UGA in ‘20, that was one of the extra games added as part of the 10 game SEC only schedule. Same reason they just got to play Vandy two years in a row.

 

This will actually be Georgia’s first trip to Starkville since 2010, and State has played in Athens three times since then. SEC scheduling is pretty dumb. State hasn’t played in Gainesville since 2010 either and I don’t think they’re currently due back for another 2-3 years.

Edited by Dawg83
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State never seems to do well traveling past the Mississippi River.  I could see them starting 0-3 which would lead to a disastrous season.  Win the first two though and I’d say 6-8 wins.  
 

OM is a mystery because of the transfers, but it isn’t a mystery that they’re loaded with talent.  If their OL plays solid again and the DL improves again they’re looking at another 10 win season. 

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1 hour ago, Dawg83 said:

They were not supposed to play UGA in ‘20, that was one of the extra games added as part of the 10 game SEC only schedule. Same reason they just got to play Vandy two years in a row.

 

This will actually be Georgia’s first trip to Starkville since 2010, and State has played in Athens three times since then. SEC scheduling is pretty dumb. State hasn’t played in Gainesville since 2010 either and I don’t think they’re currently due back for another 2-3 years.

Totally forgot about that all sec covid schedule in 2020. 

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5 hours ago, MSTSatchmo said:

State never seems to do well traveling past the Mississippi River.  I could see them starting 0-3 which would lead to a disastrous season.  Win the first two though and I’d say 6-8 wins.  

The mood is going to be TENSE if State loses to Memphis or Arizona. I’ll be a little surprised if they don’t beat Memphis at home. You’re not technically wrong about State’s struggles when traveling west, but Arizona has been AWFUL the last couple of years. Certainly they could improve but I expect State to be at least a touchdown favorite in that game.

 

Like I said though, either one of those does seem like it has potential to be a weird Leach loss. Even so, he has a really bizarre track record of losing those kind of games and having a good year anyway. I think he had two different teams at WSU that lost to an FCS team and then won 8 or 9 games anyway.

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5 hours ago, MSTSatchmo said:

OM is a mystery because of the transfers, but it isn’t a mystery that they’re loaded with talent.  If their OL plays solid again and the DL improves again they’re looking at another 10 win season. 

I do have questions about OM at quarterback. Seems like the Altmyer/Dart competition is closer than originally expected. I think either one will eventually be fine but Corral meant so much to Kiffin’s first two teams, you just can’t help but wonder how big of a drop off there is to the next guy.

 

The schedule is going to make it hard for this season to be a huge bust and the talent creates a pretty high ceiling. Honestly a pretty good spot to be in if you’re an OM fan.

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I still can’t believe State lost that Memphis game last year.  Like OM, a lot of State’s success will depend on the OL.  
 

There will definitely be a drop off at QB because Corral was such a leader and just flat out ball player.  OM has so much talent at RB and WR though it will make it much easier for the QB.  

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As said, way too early. I honestly have no idea where our 3 teams will end up. 

 

MSU- Leach has shown to have some pretty good seasons over a long coaching career while turning in very few losing seasons. Stabbing in the dark guess for MSU: 7-8 wins. 

USM- I agree Hall will turn out to be a good coach, maybe even end up in the SEC in a few years. He has a quite a rebuild at USM to do. Stabbing in the dark guess for USM: 5-6 wins. 

OM- I don't even know where to begin to guess. Kiffin seems to have his hands around the transfer portal and also seems to develop QBs pretty well. Altmeyer didn't play much last year, but I was pretty impressed how he handled himself as a freshman when he was thrown into the fire. I'm leaning he ends up being the starter. I want to make the "somewhere between 3-9 wins" joke here... but will refrain. I put the low end at 6 and high end at 10... so guessing 8 wins for OM? 

 

 

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After last year I think State will beat Memphis at home. Arizona will probably be a struggle but I think we will pull out a win. 
LSWHO is a mystery but I agree that it is a winnable game. 
3-0 for State would be huge. Probably will not happen. But possible.

I actually like playing Georgia this year at home. They are still really good but I think they will have some hangover from the NC plus they lost a lot experienced talent. 
OL is the huge question mark for State. If the line  play is solid good it could be a good year. I agree with 83 that we could be anywhere from 5-10 wins. Quite a few games that will be toss ups

LSU, Arky, A&M, KY, OM are all that could go either way. 

Bama & UGA probable losses

Auburn- probable win 

OOC-really needs to be 4-0 but we know that will not necessarily be the case. 

 

Ole Miss- I do think will take a step back but still be good. Losing the DC is a blow there. He made a great difference. New QB will be a work in progress. Still a lot of talent but I could see a couple of WTF games for Ole Miss this year. 

I can see 7-9 wins because the schedule is manageable but there are a lot of IF’s as well that could go N or S this year. 

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1 hour ago, rebmus said:

 I want to make the "somewhere between 3-9 wins" joke here... but will refrain. I put the low end at 6 and high end at 10... so guessing 8 wins for OM? 

 

 


I’ve missed people like Dores and Camp the past two years with the baseball NCs.  

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SEC Sports Information Directors voted:

SEC West

#1 Bama no surprise

#2 Texas A&M again no surprise 

#3 LSU go ahead and loose to anyone picked below you and that changes

#4 Arkansas greatly improved we will see

#5 Ole Miss  about right but beat LSU and or Arkansas and u move up

#6 Auburn about right maybe lower

#7 MSU just not enough talent around a good qb, will struggle with their schedule,  maybe 5th at best

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2 thru 6 or 7 in both divisions could be largely interchangeable, but I think we all pretty much know where it’s headed again at the top. Which definitely puts a cap on some of the excitement if you’re not a Georgia or Bama fan.

 

I actually think State has a chance to be very good, but even the best case scenario probably means you’re taking 2 or 3 losses and getting blown out in Tuscaloosa again. I definitely get why teams are struggling to sell tickets nowadays.

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20 hours ago, Dawg83 said:

2 thru 6 or 7 in both divisions could be largely interchangeable, but I think we all pretty much know where it’s headed again at the top.

Yep, betting on Bama vs UGA in Atlanta is certainly the smart bet. 

 

 

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Heard a blip yesterday about UCLA/USCw moving to the B1G. Interesting to say the least. 
Honestly it seems weird like back when Atlanta and New Orleans were in the NFC West with LA and SF. The geography is flat out bizarre. But LA to Pullman is 1,110 miles. So I guess going 1,500-2,000-2,500 miles for games is not much more relatively speaking. 
The general consensus seemed what will Notre Dame do going forward? 

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Boys, the better teams in the conference (which I like to think we are included in) are absolutely boat racing us in recruiting. It don’t look good and unless we make some sort of freakish run late we both will finish so far back it’s downright embarrassing. Don’t know if it’s NIL or what but it ain’t none too good. 

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I said last year, with the addition of Texas and Oklahoma and the NIL, State and OM needed to get their shot in sooner because it wouldn’t be later.  Once the bigger names figure the NIL out and the NCAA puts some restrictions on it, they’ll increase the gap.  
 

I knew OM could have a special year last year, so they got a shot in and finished just out of reach of the playoffs.   They have the talent to make a run again, but Bama and A&M should be better than everyone else.  OM and Kiffin can still use the portal to their advantage though because the powerhouse schools are going to have players transfer out each season also.  

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State will be so far behind because out of state top players won't come to Starklessville. Leach will have to win with mostly Mississippi players. They both will have yo use the portal wisely. That's just the way its going to be.

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18 minutes ago, Rebel Bert said:

State will be so far behind because out of state top players won't come to Starklessville. Leach will have to win with mostly Mississippi players. They both will have yo use the portal wisely. That's just the way its going to be.


There isn’t enough talent in Mississippi for both State and OM, plus the top players are going to be pursued by the top teams also.  
 

Out of state players aren’t going to either State or OM because of Starkville and Oxford anyway.  

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I would disagree with players not coming to State/Ole Miss  because of Starkvegas or Oxford. 
 

Both towns have grown into nice sized small cities with many more amenities now than existed in the 1960’s, 1980’s or even 2000. In fact, that they are smaller is advantage today. 
 

Cities such as Baton Rouge, Knoxville, Gainesville, Tuscaloosa, Columbia etc. are not the Mecca’s they used to be. NIL will be a big factor but each city here in Mississippi will not be a negative.

 

At the end of the day, players want to play where they have the best potential to earn a living in pro ball if they are good enough. The NIL does change that but still about 99% of players still major in something other than pro sports. 
 

Our two schools have been competitive in multiple sports over the years and I think we will continue to be so going forward. 

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  • 2 weeks later...

A group called “The Matador Club” in Lubbock, TX is giving 100 players 1 year, $25k contracts to do community service and charitable work in the area.  This is after the school announced $200m improvements to the football facilities.
 

Who knows what will come out of NIL’s in the future.   

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