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Egg Bowl/Rivalry Week Thread


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Short week this week and I’m sure many will have family obligations as we get closer to Thursday, so I figured why not get the discussion going sooner?

 

I’ll go into some more detailed thoughts on Sunday or Monday when I have a little more time to think on it. But this is obviously the biggest Egg Bowl since 2015 and it’s always more interesting when both teams are good. I think there’s a strong case to be made that regardless of who wins the Egg it’s been a successful season for both programs

 

Exciting week ahead, looking forward to the discussion.

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8 hours ago, rebmus said:

I figure Ole Miss will be favored, I wonder by how much? 

It will likely be a close game. 

 

 

Early line (prior to yesterday’s games) was Ole Miss -2. I kinda expect it to be a pick ‘em by kickoff.

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So here’s where I’m at currently:

 

State’s offense has been the more effective of the two offenses lately. Rogers has really taken command and this looks like a vintage Mike Leach offense, whereas OM is getting yards but struggling to finish off drives and to score more than 30-ish points. And I generally like State’s defense a little better than OM’s. With the game being in Starkville, I’m inclined to pick State.

 

That said, I’m also aware that OM has been banged up since mid season and is finally getting healthy now. Kiffin and Lebby have been conservative with their use of Corral in the running game lately, and it’s certainly possible they open it up for him a little more on Thursday. Fascinated to see how Arnett accounts for that (if it were me I would spy Corral with Bookie Watson the whole game, but I’m not a defensive coordinator).

 

And then there’s the weather issue… the forecast currently calls for a 70-80% chance of rain on Thursday evening. One would think that’s not a great recipe for the Air Raid. On the other hand, there were two games last year where the weather was iffy (Mizzou and Tulsa) and State actually ran the ball a bunch and was able to beat two solid teams. I feel like if needed they can go that route this year as well.

 

Look, it’s the Egg Bowl, it’s almost always going to be a coin flip game. You can make just about any prediction for this game and be justified in doing so. I‘m excited for this one and think it has the potential to be an all time great Egg Bowl. I think I will stick with my original prediction and go with State at home. 35-30 final score.

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Just now, MSTSatchmo said:

 State’s defense is prone to giving up big plays and OM has big play playmakers on offense.   

 

 

That's where I'm thinking will be the difference in the game. Earlier in the season, OM was hitting the big plays. Injuries to Corral and WRs have sure been a factor on the lack of big plays the past ~5 games... but supposedly all WRs are healthy for this game. Some have been drops, but also Corral has been a tad off on the long throws lately. How much is that Corral being off or Corral playing injured? How healthy will Corral be Thursday? 

 

I think MSU will score about 28. 

IF OM can hit the big plays, they'll score over 28. IF OM doesn't hit the big plays, MSU wins. 

 

MSU's D is very good against the short passes with quick closing speed. They just don't give up YAC yards on those short routes. 

MSU's D is pretty good against the run. I think OM can run for about 140 yards on MSU, but that's about it. Well enough to keep the D honest but not enough to win the game on running.

The long passes will win or lose the game for Ole Miss. 

 

 

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14 hours ago, rebmus said:

That's where I'm thinking will be the difference in the game. Earlier in the season, OM was hitting the big plays. Injuries to Corral and WRs have sure been a factor on the lack of big plays the past ~5 games... but supposedly all WRs are healthy for this game. Some have been drops, but also Corral has been a tad off on the long throws lately. How much is that Corral being off or Corral playing injured? How healthy will Corral be Thursday? 

 

I think MSU will score about 28. 

IF OM can hit the big plays, they'll score over 28. IF OM doesn't hit the big plays, MSU wins. 

 

MSU's D is very good against the short passes with quick closing speed. They just don't give up YAC yards on those short routes. 

MSU's D is pretty good against the run. I think OM can run for about 140 yards on MSU, but that's about it. Well enough to keep the D honest but not enough to win the game on running.

The long passes will win or lose the game for Ole Miss. 

 

 

The big pass plays were definitely the difference last year, I want to say there was an 80+ yard TD on a third and long and a couple of other long passes.

 

State’s corner play has been good. Safety play has been hit or miss. I fully expect State to give up a few big plays, the thing to me will be are those plays TD’s? There’s a big difference in a 70 yard TD pass and a 50 yard pass into the red zone where OM still has to work for a score.

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I think the defenses are good enough that the score is not going to be too high. 
 

The play of the game last year was the Williams fumble in the first quarter at the goal line that turned a 7-7 game into a 14-0 lead for Ole Miss. State battled back but never really recovered from that play. I don’t necessarily see this game having such an impactful single play like that one. 
 

 

Looking at common opponents does not really help us whole lot either. 
 

Both beat decent to good ACC schools

very slight edge to State.

 

Ole Miss defeated LSU while State lost 

edge to OM

 

Ole Miss and State were both blown out by Bama but OM scored three TD’s to State’s three FG’s. edge to OM.

 

Ole Miss edged Arky and State lost a close game. Either game could have gone the other way. Advantage-Even

 

Both beat a good A&M team 

Advantage-Even

 

 Both beat two East teams.

Advantage - even

 

State with a huge comeback against Auburn for the win while OM did not play well in their loss to Auburn. 


OM handled their other NC’s games while State did not. Advantage-Ole Miss. 

 

Ole Miss overall is the better team with a 9-2 record versus State’s 7-4. 
Ole Miss has been consistently good all year. State was up and down the first half of the season but has played well and improved considerably since the Bama game. 
 

 

It comes down to turnovers, special teams and the will to win. Look for both teams to play at a high level. I do agree that State has to limit OM’s big scoring plays and for OM, their defense will have to do something to disrupt the rhythm of State’s offense. Bama’s defense has been the only team that has successfully done that over the last 6 weeks. 
 

All that to say OM should be favored but with State at home then it is basically a pickem game. 
 

Rain is in the forecast which would probably favor Ole Miss if it is a monsoon. If it is a light rain then I think the weather may not play a huge factor overall.

 

We will see what happens in what should be one heck of a good game Thursday night. 
 


 

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MSU dropped out of the CFP top 25 this week after blowing out Tennessee State. OM moved up from #12 to #9 after somewhat struggling vs a bad Vandy team.

I would have guessed OM #10 and MSU #24. 

Cincy moved into the top 4 finally.

 

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11 hours ago, rebmus said:

MSU dropped out of the CFP top 25 this week after blowing out Tennessee State. OM moved up from #12 to #9 after somewhat struggling vs a bad Vandy team.

I would have guessed OM #10 and MSU #24. 

Cincy moved into the top 4 finally.

 

Yeah there wasn’t much doubt about it after last week but now it seems virtually impossible that State could pass OM in the final rankings.

 

OM is a NY6 lock with a win tomorrow, but could still get in even with a loss, depending on what happens with Bama and the Playoff.

Edited by Dawg83
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7 hours ago, Dawg83 said:

Yeah there wasn’t much doubt about it after last week but now it seems virtually impossible that State could pass OM in the final rankings.

 

OM is a NY6 lock with a win tomorrow, but could still get in even with a loss, depending on what happens with Bama and the Playoff.

Yep, a lock with a win. With a loss, it would take some help for OM to get a NY6 bowl. I lean OM ends up in the Citrus with a loss. IF Bama wins tomorrow and in Atlanta- they're in the playoffs with UGA and OM almost definitely gets the Sugar then. Then again, if A&M wins with an OM loss... I can see A&M getting the Sugar with Bama in the playoffs. 

 

 

MSU is probably Outback/Gator with a win and Liberty/Music City with a loss. 

 

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Texas Bowl has been the prevailing thought on State this week. I am starting to think that could be the spot regardless of how tomorrow goes. The January 4th date isn’t ideal but it’s a high payout game in an NFL stadium against a Big 12 team, by no means a bad bowl spot even if there are better ones out there.

 

There is still a path to the Citrus Bowl if State wins tomorrow  but it also requires A&M losing at LSU (not totally out of the question) and you would also need Ole Miss to make an NY6 game with an Egg Bowl loss.

Edited by Dawg83
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Things could get interesting 83. 

IF Bama loses and OM wins this weekend, they tie for 1st in the West with Bama going to Atlanta with the H2H tiebreaker. 

IF Bama and OM wins, it's an outright #1 and #2 in the West.

Beyond those happening, it gets crazy quick. 

IF MSU wins and A&M loses, MSU/OM tie for #2 in the West with MSU holding the tie-breaker. 

IF MSU wins and A&M wins, A&M/OM/MSU tie for #2 in the West with no clear tiebreaker. Bowl selections would likely come down to highest in the rankings/who brings the biggest crowd... which would probably favor A&M on both. Kentucky is also 2nd in the East no matter what happens with the same conference record as A&M/OM/MSU. 

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Well Ole Miss was the better team this year and credit is due to them. 
We had our opportunities in the first half but failed to take advantage of our opportunities. 
Our guys had more drops in this game than we had all year combined. 
 

 

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