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CFB Week 7 Thread


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Last weekend was absolutely wild. This weekend has the potential to be even wilder… or it could be a total dud. Who even knows with this season. LOL.

 

Ole Miss-Tennessee is an incredibly interesting game to me. We kinda know what Ole Miss is, right? Great on offense, still bad on defense. I have no idea what Tennessee is. It’s hard to say because they’ve beaten up on some bad teams, but I lean toward them…. Maybe being kinda good? They have certainly had more life to them than many expected. These are two Top 20 offenses based on total yardage. Night game at Neyland (if you’ve never been it’s kind of a weird place to play), should be maybe the most entertaining game of the day. I am not quite ready to pull the trigger on Tennessee, so I will pick Ole Miss to win a close high scoring game. The Vegas line right now (OM -3) seems pretty spot on to me. Would not be shocked if the Vols found a way to win at home, though. I still don’t have any faith in the OM defense and I feel like this is a game it could potentially cost them if the offense slips up at all.

 

State-Bama… man oh man did I not expect to be talking about Bama coming off a loss in this game. But here we are. To me this entire game will be decided by State’s OL. If that group plays poorly this will be a massacre. If they continue to play well as they did against LSU and A&M, I can make a case for State hanging around in this game. And oh by the way, Bama’s pass rush numbers are actually among the worst in the SEC this year. Defensively I like State’s defense for the most part. Bama will inevitably hit some big plays but I trust Zach Arnett to not let it get too out of hand on the back end, and State’s rush defense has mostly been good.

 

Under normal circumstances, the Air Raid generally allows teams to stay in games and punch above their weight class. There is a pathway for that happening here if Bama is sloppy again and State does not trip over their own shoelaces as they’ve done many times this season. Having said that, do I expect State to keep the score within two touchdowns? No, I don’t. I have Bama looking much sharper and winning something like 41-17. But there is a very small part of me that wonders if there is still some vulnerability with Bama, and maybe State is just weird enough to expose it further under the right conditions.

 

Kentucky at Georgia - Kentucky is playing well and in firm contention for a NY6 bowl if they don’t screw it up down the stretch… just can’t see them winning this game in Athens though. Georgia’s defense is the best I’ve seen in college football in a decade.

 

Auburn at Arkansas - total toss up, Arkansas was robbed in this game last year, I’ll take the Hogs at home. Still don’t trust Bo Nix.

 

Florida at LSU - Ed’s goose is already cooked, but Mullen better be careful here, a loss to THIS particular LSU team would be a really bad look for him. I’ll take Florida by 7.

 

A&M at Mizzou - potential letdown spot for A&M, but Mizzou is bad. I think it’s closer than many expect but A&M wins.

 

A little bit of a dud in terms of national games this week, maybe that means we will see some more upsets. I don’t think I’ve picked a single upset correctly so maybe I should take the week off on that. LOL.

 

 

 

Edited by Dawg83
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Ole Miss/UT. If games were played on paper- Ole Miss is ranked higher than everyone else on the regular season schedule. As we all well know, games aren't played on paper. I think Ole Miss will win 8 or 9 regular season games which means 2 or 3 more losses are coming. My gut tells me Tennessee picks up the win Saturday. Either way, this game is one to not bet on... definitely a tossup. 

MSU/Bama. Bama typically beats the tar out of the opponent after a loss. MSU's defense is tough against the run and short passes but I'm not impressed at all with MSU's secondary. If a team can throw a pass over 8-10 yards with accuracy, MSU is in trouble defensively. If I'm correct on that, Young could have a huge day. Bama is the smart bet to win, MSU's D may make it a lot closer than most think. 

KY/UGA. I like this KY team- but not enough to beat UGA. KY is like Ole Miss to me this year... on paper they should go 11-1 but I still think they'll lose around 3 games. 

Auburn/Arkansas. Agreed this is a tossup. I think that Auburn/Georgia State was a fluke and Auburn is pretty solid. I'll take Arkansas because they're hosting. 

Florida/LSU. I don't bet on games but good gosh this one is tempting unless the line is HUGE. Players are quitting on Orgeron, he's toast. 

A&M/Mizzou. Mizzou may keep it closer due to hosting, but that's the main reason I can see this not being lopsided. A&M also has been a very up and down team this year, so there's that also. A&M wins, but may well be a closer game than most think. 

 

 

 

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RE: State’s secondary, I think the two corners are very good (particularly Emerson) but the safeties are pretty average. Duncan and Peters made some nice plays against A&M but both have gotten picked on at times too. I expected the transfer from Texas to be a little better. And depth is a concern in general with that group.

 

I also think State gambles with blitzes sometimes and that leaves them vulnerable when the blitzes don’t get home. Arnett has a little bit of Todd Grantham in him. I love the 3-3-5 though, I can see why San Diego State has run it for so long.

Edited by Dawg83
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UTenn over OM - I still think OM is the better team, but TN is looking better on offense, and I think Corral throws his first INT this weekend.  
 

Bama over State - it won’t be close, but I think State’s defense plays well for a half.  Their offense will not be able to move the ball though and the D will wear down. 
 

Georgia over UK by at least 2 TDs.  
 

Arkansas wins a close one against Auburn 

 

UF over LSU in a close one.  
 

A&M over Missouri 

 

TX/Ok State, BYU/Baylor and NC State/BC could be some good games and maybe a few upsets. 

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Current betting lines: 

Arkansas -3.5

Florida -10.5

A&M -8.5

UGA -22.5

USC -18.5 (Good grief, USC isn't good and Vandy is Rodney Dangerfield... no respect! Not that Vandy has done anything to deserve any respect so far this year)

Bama -17

Ole Miss -3

 

 

 

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Just now, Bulldogs4 said:

The A&M thing to do would be to lose to Mizzou. 

Ha, that would sure make good conversation if it happened. 

I wouldn't bet on it happening, but it wouldn't surprise me.

A&M is hard to predict. They look like dookie at times, look average at times, look great at times. 

 

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OM - Tennessee should be entertaining.  OM should be able to outscore them.

 

Bama may have been awakened.  It may be bad, but I'm not sure if they are as dominant as some past years even so.  

 

We'll see how for real Kentucky is I guess.  I think they're pretty good, but I thought that about Arkansas too.

 

 

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I do think UK-UGA has ugly, low scoring game potential that would allow UK to stay within 10-14 points. I still don’t totally trust Stetson Bennett. The JT Daniels health situation has flown under the radar a little bit because they haven’t needed him, but I think they may need him to be able to win it all in the end.

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21 minutes ago, Dawg83 said:

I do think UK-UGA has ugly, low scoring game potential that would allow UK to stay within 10-14 points. I still don’t totally trust Stetson Bennett. The JT Daniels health situation has flown under the radar a little bit because they haven’t needed him, but I think they may need him to be able to win it all in the end.


That will be a very physical game.  Should be the opposite of the OM/UTenn game.   
 

I picked Tenn because they’re at home and Corral hasn’t had an off game yet, but I just don’t know if Tenn can keep up with OM.  I’ve been going back and forth on that pick. 

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19 minutes ago, Dawg83 said:

I do think UK-UGA has ugly, low scoring game potential that would allow UK to stay within 10-14 points. I still don’t totally trust Stetson Bennett. The JT Daniels health situation has flown under the radar a little bit because they haven’t needed him, but I think they may need him to be able to win it all in the end.

I think he is gonna ride Bennett as long as he can to let Daniels get as much time to recover as possible but I also think he could have played if they needed him. This Georgia team is the Bama teams from 10-12 years ago. Play great defense and do enough in offense and don’t turn the ball over.

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3 minutes ago, MSTSatchmo said:


That will be a very physical game.  Should be the opposite of the OM/UTenn game.   
 

I picked Tenn because they’re at home and Corral hasn’t had an off game yet, but I just don’t know if Tenn can keep up with OM.  I’ve been going back and forth on that pick. 

He hasn’t had an off game but I have been impressed with the growth of him. He is a gun slinger naturally. But his ability this season to take what is given and not force it has helped his draft stock more than anything.

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I like Ole Miss to win @ UT but it will be a nervous win. The Vols are playing better but they have beaten a couple of bad teams (which is extremely important) but IMO OM is the better team and win a wild game. OM 42, UT 31

 

KY @ UGA …. The Cats are a solid team but they have not played a team like UGA yet… UGA 24, KY 10

 

FL @ LSU… I have been wrong about LSU the whole season so since I am taking Florida here they will probably pull out a win.  FL 28, LSU 17

 

Auburn @ Arkansas 

I would like to take Auburn here but I think Arkansas will eek out a win but not without some scary moments.

Arkansas 21, Auburn 20

 

A&M @ Mizzou… If Missouri had a pulse I would like them to win this game but since they don’t, A&M wins an ugly game.

A&M 25, Missouri 14

 

USCe 24, Vandy 8

 

Bama @ State….looking at this game is like spinning the roulette wheel. A lot of scenarios could play out. On paper, Bama should roll but on the field it could be a different story.

State hangs tough but Bama wins 31-24. 

But it could be 40-10 too…. I have no feel for this game at all….A State upset would not shock me. Surprise me, yes.

 

We will see. 

 

 

 

Edited by Bulldogs4
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Turnovers and Big Plays by Bama got the game out of reach early. Not that State would have won but the halftime score should have been 7-6. 
 

But that is why Bama is so good. You have to play well and not have any turnovers to have a chance. 

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