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5 minutes ago, rebmus said:

Nikhazy and Broadway combined with a great effort tonight as OM picks up the win. 

 

We'll see what happens the next two games, but I'd bet on Vandy taking the next two if I were a betting man.

Diamond needs to  throw his best game of the season and Sunday is kinda a crap shoot.

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Just now, Wcchaingang said:

Diamond needs to  throw his best game of the season and Sunday is kinda a crap shoot.

Yep. Broadway is likely good for one more close this weekend IF a lead is held into the 8th. 

 

Without Hoglund, I just don't see OM holding a lead until late vs Vandy in the next two games. 

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9 hours ago, Dawg83 said:

Fascinated to see what happens in Knoxville 

 

 

This is obviously the biggest series this weekend. Arkansas pulled out game 1 on the road. IF they win this series, it solidifies my opinion that Arkansas is just above the rest in a very good conference. 

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2 minutes ago, rebmus said:

Yep. Broadway is likely good for one more close this weekend IF a lead is held into the 8th. 

 

Without Hoglund, I just don't see OM holding a lead until late vs Vandy in the next two games. 

I don’t either. That’s why this one was so important. I don’t see Diamond or McDaniel getting deep to bridge the game to Broadway or Dougherty for that matter.

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I will give Mizzou credit, after blowing a game they should’ve won Thursday and blowing a couple of different leads on Friday I expected them to either lay down or unravel again. But they obviously came to play and have taken advantage of a State team that seems to be sleepwalking a little bit.

 

Surprised to be in this spot but State can’t afford another loss today or their Top 8 seed is on much more shaky ground. Last night probably dashed any SEC title hopes unfortunately. I do think that game was a little bit of the law of averages catching up with State, they’ve stolen a few wins in conference play, even some of the series they’ve swept were very close on a game by game basis. I think most, including State’s players it would seem, probably took a sweep for granted this weekend, and that’s not as easy as it looks even against bad teams. Arkansas, who seems be clearly the best team in the country right now, has had a difficult time sweeping bad teams, they dropped home games to both Auburn and A&M.

 

That said, you can justify dropping a game but you can’t go and drop this series. I think they’ll probably be fine today but I’ve been wrong many times before.

 

Hats off to Bianco for trusting his best guy against Rocker and it paid off for him. The next two days depends on how OM pitching holds up but I think they have every chance to win the series. I’ve been of this opinion for a while but this notion that Vandy is untouchable is just inaccurate. They’re very good, but not on the same level as some of their other great teams. I think it’s far from a given that they make it to Omaha.

 

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Mizzou won 16-8 to take the series in Starkville. That's a bet I would have easily lost. 

 

This series loss probably drops MSU from a #3 NS to a #6 NS (depending on what others do this weekend)... which means it's not a big deal at all. 

I'd bet on MSU taking the series at Bama next weekend and end up with the #4 or #5 NS. 

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2 hours ago, MSTSatchmo said:

Missouri is drilling State in the 4th.   This could be a costly weekend for them. 

Pretty atrocious weekend all around, very lucky to not get swept. Can’t really explain how bad State played, mostly disappointing in the pitching and defense. Got hit hard by a bad offense and had one of the worst defensive weekends I can remember seeing from an SEC team.

 

Top 8 seed is definitely on the verge of slipping away, pretty much a must win series in Tuscaloosa next weekend in that regard. This weekend was a good reminder that no matter how good you think you are, you can get your teeth kicked in by a lesser team on any given weekend.

 

I don’t have a good read on State’s postseason chances whatsoever. If you told me they were playing for a championship it wouldn’t shock me, if they got bounced in their own Regional after 2-3 games it wouldn’t shock me.

Edited by Dawg83
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Just now, Dawg83 said:

 

I don’t have a good read on State’s postseason chances whatsoever. If you told me they were playing for a championship it wouldn’t shock me, if they got bounced in their own Regional after 2-3 games it wouldn’t shock me.

I'll be a tad surprised if MSU doesn't make it to Omaha. 

Obviously, IF MSU plays like this weekend again, losing their own Regional will likely happen. This weekend is far from how MSU has played all season though. 

 

Vandy is drilling Ole Miss today. 6-0 in the 5th. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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I think my concern is that State’s pitching overall has a reputation built more on talent than production with certain guys. Sims is incredible, but I’m not sure there’s another pitcher on staff that’s been all that consistent. Maybe Bednar but even he has had rough days. Middle relief has been very up and down. I just don’t really know what I’m going to get from this bunch in a given day. You’d like to think they nail it down in the postseason but there just hasn’t been a ton of consistency.

 

Also, this is a below average defensive team. Plain and simple.

 

Tend to think State will eventually be fine but if you’re drawing up a recipe for how they have an early postseason exit, this weekend was it.

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That OM series win over Vandy gives Ole Miss the signature win they needed lately to possibly solidify a host spot. At this point, I feel good about OM hosting unless they get swept at UGA. Towards the end of today's game the announcers stated OM hasn't been swept all year, which means it will likely happen at UGA! Ha.

I still don't think it matters, OM isn't deep enough to get out of a regional IMO. 

 

Arkansas took the series at UT today. Once again, Arkansas has proven to be just better than everyone else. 

Arkansas hasn't lost an SEC series all season and also swept a very good MSU team (in Starkville). 

Arkansas has another strong test next weekend hosting #9 Florida, but I expect them to win that series. Even IF they lost the series without getting swept, I'd still likely argue they should be the #1 seed in the nation. 

 

1 week to go in the regular season, we'll see how it all shakes out. 

 

 

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Just now, Wcchaingang said:

OM is capable of slugging their way out of a regional. I do like the lineup change he threw out there today.

Capable, sure... but the odds aren't great without Gunner on the mound AND Elko still injured to slug much. 

OM's best bet is to slug their way through 3 straight wins to get out of a regional. A game 4 would likely be a slugfest by both teams involved and I would wager a game 4 pitching by anyone else in a regional would be >>>> than game 4 pitching by Ole Miss right now. Most everyone that advances to a regional final can slug the ball. 

 

It may be odd to say, but I actually like OM's chances of advancing from a super regional vs from a regional. You need depth to get through a regional, OM just doesn't have much of that right now. 

 

 

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Ole Miss for sure should be on the right side of the hosting bubble for now. I agree that they probably host as long as they don’t get swept in Athens. Kinda think Georgia wins two at home but that should still keep Ole Miss in the Top 16.

 

After looking at the whole weekend’s results, the series loss to Mizzou wasn’t as big of a killer for State as it could’ve been. Win two in Tuscaloosa and they should still be a Top 8 seed. And to State’s credit, they responded well after their other two series losses (swept the following weekend both times). So perhaps they can do that again. Right now I would pick State to get the two games they need.

 

If the season ended today I would have State as the 5 or 6 overall seed (maybe as low as 7) and Ole Miss as 13 or 14. But I think State could move up as high as 4 and Ole Miss as high as 9 or 10 depending on how the next two weeks go. I think Ole Miss’s Top 8 chances are a little slim right now, they’d currently be the 6th SEC team in the pecking order and have series losses to two of the teams directly in front of them. A lot would have to go right for Ole Miss to sneak into the Top 8.

Edited by Dawg83
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3 hours ago, rebmus said:

 

 

It may be odd to say, but I actually like OM's chances of advancing from a super regional vs from a regional. You need depth to get through a regional, OM just doesn't have much of that right now. 

 

 


I thought the same thing.  Nobody wants to see OM in a super regional.  

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1 hour ago, pancho said:

It appears that  Lemonis still doesn't know what his best lineup is yet, nor does he have a solid grasp on his deep pitching staff. 

With the lineup I'm not sure what more Lemonis can do unfortunately. He has given a bunch of different guys opportunities to grab a spot and none of them have done it. I feel pretty good about 4 or 5 guys right now (TA, Rowdey, Hancock, Tanner, Dubrule) and then the rest of the roster seems to either be hitters that can't play defense or good defenders that can't hit. And then there's the left side of the infield which is killing State right now. Both James and Forsythe have seen their batting averages drop almost 50 points in the last month and they also are struggling mightily in the field. But this roster is what it is at this point, and you've got to make it work with what you have. The Landon Jordan ordeal didn't do anything to help your situation either, I feel like he was competent at the plate and defensively and would be playing a lot right now, but he obviously had different plans.

 

The concerning thing with State's pitching is that while other teams seem to be defining roles and honing in on which guys they can trust, for State you have a bunch of talented but inconsistent arms and no idea who you can trust in what situation. It's Landon Sims and then everybody else (and you can make a strong case that Sims is underused, but I do expect to see more of him moving forward). Even with starters, you feel decent about what you've gotten from Bednar most weeks but MacLeod has been all over the place with his starts. And I have no idea who the number three starter would be right now, that's once again a situation where several guys have gotten opportunities and nobody has been up to the challenge.

 

 

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Seems like some of you are being a little overly dramatic about Mississippi State at this point. So they had a bad weekend....that happens. They are currently 36-13 and 17-10 in SEC play. 6-3 in SEC series with 2 of the series losses coming to Vandy and Arkansas (haven’t lost a series to anyone).  They’ve got nice series wins against Ole Miss and South Carolina. Decent Non conf series win over Tulane. They are not for sure a top 8 seed but still right in the thick of things and could end up anywhere #4-#8 I’d say based on where they are today. 

Plus still a great opportunity for top 25 road series win with Alabama this weekend. Very likely at this point to finish top 4 in the SEC standings and automatically make it to double elimination play. Florida has Arkansas so likely series loss and possible sweep. Vandy likely takes care of business against Kentucky. Tennessee will hopefully get pushed by South Carolina. But you take care of business this weekend and you are top 4 in the conference come Monday. That’s pretty much dead on with preseason predictions.
 

Worst case scenario you are still a national seed, I’d imagine even going 0-4 the rest of the way before NCAAs leaves you around 10-12 seed. You’re hosting. And State comes to play when it’s post season baseball.
 

regardless of what happens, I’d have more faith in an unseeded Mississippi State team making a run to Omaha than I would have a top 4 national seed Ole Miss.

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