College Baseball Season

[Dawg83]

Just wanted to carry over the discussion from the other board.

 

State hosts Kentucky starting tonight, definitely a series you need to win if you don't want to fall behind the eight ball. I have no idea what to make of Ole Miss/Florida, but should be a really good series.

 

[rebmus]

Interesting couple of series. 

Kentucky is hard to figure out for sure. Are they as good as their SEC record or not? I lean towards KY is better than the respect they've been given in the polls, but not nearly as good as MSU. 

Florida has been a solid top 5 team all season until getting swept at SC last weekend. This is Ole Miss's first real test since opening weekend. 

 

I wouldn't put too much stock in either series, unless a sweep happens. 

MSU sweeps- they're right back in the thick of things while Kentucky falls more in line where we expected them to be. 

MSU gets swept- Kentucky will be proven they're for real while MSU is in a hole.

OM sweeps- 9-0 in the SEC would be an unreal start... it would answer most doubters (including me) that the #3 ranking is legit. Florida would fall a lot in the rankings again, maybe even out of the rankings? I thought dropping from #5 to #15 was too much after getting swept at a pretty dang good SC team, but I don't get a vote. 

Florida sweeps- Florida jumps back up in the rankings while OM falls a few spots. 

 

I'll go with the home teams to win the series but no sweeps- MSU takes 2 of 3 and Florida takes 2 of 3. 

[rebmus]

Florida took game one 4-1. Florida played very well and deserved the win, but I will add that OM had 3 errors (another could have been a 4th error). I voiced concerns about errors early on, tonight was just not Ole Miss's night and Florida was likely the better team tonight either way. 

 

 

[rebmus]

MSU took care of business in a big way- 8-1 win over Kentucky. 

 

In other SEC finals:

Vandy beat LSU 13-1 @ LSU. Vandy just keeps rolling with that #1 ranking. I'm surprised a tad about LSU's season so far though.

A&M won 16-2 @ Missouri. Missouri just stinks, nothing unexpected here. 

 

By far, the biggest surprise tonight is Auburn winning 2-1 @ Arkansas. 

[Dawg83]

MacLeod looked great but otherwise State wasn’t overly impressive. Kentucky was underwhelming too, seems like their record may have been inflated by their schedule, though they could always look much different the rest of the weekend, one game does not a series make. But right now I feel pretty good about State’s chances to win the series and possibly sweep.

 

Ole Miss can get swept this weekend and still be just fine. Very little to lose thanks to that 6-0 start so any win you get in Gainesville is gravy. My guess is the teams split the next two games but I could see OM rallying to win the series or Florida sweeping.

Edited April 2, 2021 by Dawg83

[Blake]

I was pleased to see MacLeod have a good outing. He needed it after getting pushed around by Arkansas last weekend. Now we need to see Bednar get through 5+ innings tomorrow. 

 

LSU just doesn't have that edge yet at this point in the season. 

 

I think OM gets at least one on the road in Gainesville. And that's all they need. 

[Dawg83]

While I don't think this is a very good LSU team, I also think they've had a pretty brutal schedule to open league play with. State. Tennessee, and Vandy are all Top 10 teams, and Vandy is frankly in a class of their own right now. It feels like it will take something fluky for anyone to beat Rocker or Leiter.

 

My guess is once LSU gets to the Auburn/Alabama/A&M type teams on their schedule they will win the lion's share of those games just because they're LSU and they tend to get it figured out in April and May. But they're definitely not a national seed type team and probably not a host.

 

In spite of their record I think Auburn is dangerous, so I'm not shocked that they won a game against Arkansas. They have talent and Butch Thompson is a really good coach. Obviously they've dug a big hole for themselves, but I think they are better than teams like Missouri or Georgia who just appear to be flat out bad this year. With Arkansas I think they're very good but if there's a hole on that team it's in the starting pitching, which I think is just very meh. Wasn't really their problem last night but I could see it causing them problems in the postseason when everybody can pitch and their hitting will likely be more subdued in Omaha.

Edited April 2, 2021 by Dawg83

[rebmus]

MSU rallied to take another win over Kentucky, 3-2 final. MSU goes for the sweep tomorrow. 

Ole Miss piled on late in the game to take an 8-2 win at Florida. Rubber match tomorrow. 

 

Auburn held a 4-0 lead over Arkansas, it's 4-3 in the 7th now. I expect Arkansas to continue to come back and take the win tonight along with the series tomorrow. 

[rebmus]

Arkansas won as expected tonight, 6-5 final. Auburn has played well this series so far, kudos to them. 

 

#9 Tennessee lost at Alabama. 

A&M lost at Missouri.

#14 South Carolina lost at Georgia. 

 

Vandy is all over LSU so far tonight, up 7-1.

[Dawg83]

Nice win by Ole Miss, I almost want to say tomorrow doesn’t matter because 7 wins through three weekends is already a heck of a start. But if you do win then you’re in super position to lock up a Top 8 seed.

 

Important series win for State, had to have at least two and they’ve gotten it with the opportunity to sweep still. Wasn’t easy or particularly pretty again, but you take it. Bednar and Sims are just really good. Hitting and defense will cost this team some games (as it already has) but the pitching can make this team a contender in the end.

 

[rebmus]

Just now, Dawg83 said:

Nice win by Ole Miss, I almost want to say tomorrow doesn’t matter because 7 wins through three weekends is already a heck of a start. But if you do win then you’re in super position to lock up a Top 8 seed.

 

Important series win for State, had to have at least two and they’ve gotten it with the opportunity to sweep still. Wasn’t easy or particularly pretty again, but you take it. Bednar and Sims are just really good. Hitting and defense will cost this team some games (as it already has) but the pitching can make this team a contender in the end.

 

Agreed. It's not a big deal if Ole Miss loses at Florida tomorrow, but IF they win... that's a huge series win when it comes down to seeding. 

Seeding aside (and it's much too early to worry much about that), winning the West will be a three way contest I'm fairly sure... Arkansas, Ole Miss, and MSU. 

Arkansas already has the tie-breaker over MSU, is only a game behind Ole Miss, and plays Ole Miss next weekend. OM winning tomorrow keeps Arkansas at least a game behind and MSU at least 3 games behind before potential tie-breakers. 

Tomorrow and the next few weeks will be interesting, to say the least, for Ole Miss/MSU/Arkansas. 

[rebmus]

Vandy picks up another road win 11-2 over LSU. 

Vandy just looks on another level above everyone else. 

LSU is now 1-7 in the SEC. The record looks bad, but their schedule has been brutal early... like 83 said. 

 

[Dawg83]

State really has a chance to stay in the mix by virtue of their schedule. If they can sweep today I see at least 2-3 more possible sweeps on the schedule. But NEEDING sweeps to stay in the mix is a tough position to be in so I'd say it's probably unlikely they win the West or the SEC. The only time they've actually done it in the last 30 years was in 2016 and they had to finish 11-1 in their last 12 just to win the league on the last day of the season (the infamous "Thanks, Rebels" games).

 

If Ole Miss wins today and then can split the six games against Arkansas and State then I would probably pick them to win the West. The schedule down the stretch is not looking as imposing for OM as it once did, other than the obvious series against Vandy. Which by then who knows what Vandy will look like if Corbin keeps extending Rocker and Leiter like he's been doing.

Edited April 3, 2021 by Dawg83

[Dawg83]

Never seen as many balls get lost in the sun as there have been at The Dude today. State up 4-2 going to the 6th, not out of the woods yet.

 

Florida takes the final game from OM and wins the series. As we’ve discussed, nothing wrong at all with a 1-2 weekend for OM. Obviously the next two weekends are massive against Arkansas and State.

Auburn up 5-2 in the 6th on Arkansas, would be a pretty stunning series win. And maybe not great news for State that Auburn is getting hot right when State is headed to The Plains next week.

 

[Dawg83]

State gets the sweep, Kentucky made it interesting late and I question the bullpen decision in the 9th a little bit, but I guess it eventually worked. UK is probably a borderline regional team but any sweep is a good sweep. State is still not hitting or defending particularly well but I’m fine with where they are record-wise three weeks in.

[rebmus]

Florida takes the series with a 6-5 win over OM today.

With MSU's sweep, MSU is only 2 games out of first place in the west now. 

Auburn/Arkansas is in extra innings. Arkansas will tie with OM for the lead in the west with a win. 

[rebmus]

Arkansas picked up the series win and are now tied for first in the west with OM. 

 

Huge series in Oxford next weekend to see who leads the west after that. Since Arkansas owns the tie-breaker over MSU, it's probably best for MSU if OM takes 2  of 3 next weekend. State hosts OM the weekend after that for their chance to take the west lead and have a tie-breaker over one of the three teams in the mix.

 

 

 

 

[Dawg83]

LSU at 1-8 in conference play is something else... and they still haven’t played Arkansas or Ole Miss. Kinda feels like this is it for Mainieri, doesn’t it?

[rebmus]

Just now, Dawg83 said:

LSU at 1-8 in conference play is something else... and they still haven’t played Arkansas or Ole Miss. Kinda feels like this is it for Mainieri, doesn’t it?

I dunno, the conference schedule has been pretty brutal for LSU (with more to come, as you mentioned). 

1-8 doesn't look good, and it certainly isn't... but LSU played #8 MSU, #1 Vandy, and #9 Tennessee. 

I lean towards LSU will finish 4th in the west with Bama, Auburn, and A&M left on the schedule. 

That's another interesting series coming next weekend- LSU at Kentucky. LSU really needs to pick up 2 of 3 on the road here to get back in the mix of regional bids. 

[Dawg83]

The issue is I don’t see the talent on this team that typical LSU teams have. And now they might have just lost their number two starter (and projected first round pick) to injury.

 

I’m sure they’ll get going to some degree, but my question is what are LSU fans willing to accept? This will be roughly the fourth year in a row where they aren’t close to contending for the conference title.

[rebmus]

Just now, Dawg83 said:

The issue is I don’t see the talent on this team that typical LSU teams have. And now they might have just lost their number two starter (and projected first round pick) to injury.

 

I’m sure they’ll get going to some degree, but my question is what are LSU fans willing to accept? This will be roughly the fourth year in a row where they aren’t close to contending for the conference title.

From that perspective, great question. I suspect LSU will rebound and make a regional- MAYBE even work into a host. Will that be enough to keep a coach at LSU in baseball? 

 

[rebmus]

Week 3 is in the books- no HUGE surprises.

Vandy took a road sweep at LSU, while MSU took a home sweep over Kentucky... these were the only two sweeps. 

SC and Tenn picked up 2-1 road series at UGA and Bama. 

The other home teams took a 2-1 series win- which is pretty much expected in SEC baseball. 

 

I still think LSU is better than their record, but obviously not the normal really good LSU team. 

Vandy is just on another level compared to the rest of the SEC and the nation. 

MSU had the second most impressive weekend, they'll move back up in the rankings after a sweep of a good Kentucky team. 

 

[Dawg83]

I'm really fascinated by Tennessee. We will find out how legit they are pretty quick, they host Florida and Vandy back to back the next two weeks.

 

State at Auburn is a trap series if there ever was one. Auburn is a team with more talent than their record shows and there's a chance State might be looking ahead to Ole Miss next weekend. Auburn was way more competitive against Arkansas than State was. I don't feel great about this series for State, I kinda think Auburn takes 2 of 3.  I would consider it a good accomplishment if State won the series on the road.

 

I think I like Ole Miss to take 2 from Arkansas. Two very good teams, I just think OM has better starting pitching and the advantage of playing at home.

[rebmus]

The NCAA has decided to takes bids for regional and super regional hosts. 
Both rounds of hosts will be announced mid May.

Ole Miss could potentially host a super even though the team got put out the first round.

 

[Dawg83]

 

1 hour ago, rebmus said:

 

1 hour ago, rebmus said:

The NCAA has decided to takes bids for regional and super regional hosts. 
Both rounds of hosts will be announced mid May.

Ole Miss could potentially host a super even though the team got put out the first round.

 

I don’t love it, I imagine it won’t effect State and Ole Miss a ton if they continue to be Top 10 teams. The biggest concern is going to be if they have tight restrictions on capacity after both teams have had things pretty open for a month now.

 

Who it will hurt is your small schools and borderline host teams who would normally be able to get hot in May and earn a host. Now they’ll be judged on a smaller body of work which isn’t exactly fair. You’ll end up having at least one or two undeserving hosts that falter late and are 2 or 3 seeds when the field is announced.

Edited April 5, 2021 by Dawg83