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Better Defense: Mississippi State or Ole Miss?


Blake
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Last year State was able to put together a decent defense with some creativity by Zach Arnett and a busted roster. They look to have some pieces back to make it interesting.

 

Ole Miss didn't have a defense that scared anybody, but Durkin has had a second year and has added some standout jucos to bolster his own roster. Expectations have risen.

 

Who do you expect to have the better defense this season?

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I like State’s starting 11 on defense a lot. A couple of depth concerns at LB and in the secondary, but if the key guys stay healthy I think it has a chance to be one of the best defenses in the league. Zach Arnett is a star, and hanging onto him for one more year is possibly going to end up being worth another win or two this season. That guy will either be a coordinator at a major program or a head coach in the next year or two.

 

Leach has quietly figured out some of his defensive woes late in his career. His last defense at Wazzu was bad, but otherwise he’s had some of the best defenses of his career in the last 4-5 years. Not that he has a ton to do with things defensively, but he’s made some very good hires in Grinch at WSU and Arnett at State in recent years.

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I agree that Arnett is a star in the making. He made things work with a handful of walk-ons starting or playing significant minutes last year. I think he's got a better roster to work with now. If MSU's defense can stay healthy I think they have a chance to surprise a lot of people. 

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I think will State will have the better defense. Ole Miss will be improved as well. With their offense, just having some improvement on D will be beneficial to them. If their “D” is improved then Ole Miss could have a very good year. 
 

State’s offense should certainly be improved and more efficient this year. The air raid offense gets a bit misunderstood. It can be a very effective ball control offense when it is executed properly. I think some people think you are slinging bombs every other play when that is not really the case at all. In fact, I think we will actually see a higher percentage of running plays this year. 
Expectations for State are quite low so we might surprise a few pundits this year.

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Could be wrong on this but I think State may end up benefitting this year for all the turmoil they endured a year ago. They ended up having to play a ton of young guys due to some of the more experienced ones not being apart of things like they were expected to be.

 

Like, what if Costello and Hill would have been the bulk of your offense as we assumed they would be? You’d be breaking in a brand new QB and RB rather than having some experience like you do now. And it’s pretty clear Walley had far better chemistry with Rogers than he did with KJ, so nobody would have a clue who he even was.

 

Short term it was a disaster in October 2020… long term it may end up being for the best. Prior to last season I thought State might be pretty decent in 2020 and then potentially really struggle in 2021. With how it all played out last year, I’m wondering if that ends up being flip flopped.

 

 

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25 minutes ago, Dawg83 said:

Could be wrong on this but I think State may end up benefitting this year for all the turmoil they endured a year ago. They ended up having to play a ton of young guys due to some of the more experienced ones not being apart of things like they were expected to be.

 

Like, what if Costello and Hill would have been the bulk of your offense as we assumed they would be? You’d be breaking in a brand new QB and RB rather than having some experience like you do now. And it’s pretty clear Walley had far better chemistry with Rogers than he did with KJ, so nobody would have a clue who he even was.

 

Short term it was a disaster in October 2020… long term it may end up being for the best. Prior to last season I thought State might be pretty decent in 2020 and then potentially really struggle in 2021. With how it all played out last year, I’m wondering if that ends up being flip flopped.

 

 


At least you’re positive! 

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4 hours ago, MSTSatchmo said:


At least you’re positive! 

Just a thought that has crossed my mind. I mean the majority of last year was brutal and I’m still not quite sure what this year’s team will be, but at least they aren’t having to start brand new players at every position which seemed like a possibility early last year.

 

Last year was a weird roster situation for State because they entered Year 1 of a new regime with a bunch of older guys that you knew would only be there one year. My expectation was that State would take a step back right after certain guys left the program. I assumed that would be at the end of last season, but heck, half of them didn’t even make it to November. So the back half of the schedule ended up being Phase 1 of a rebuild. And it went reasonably well, at least compared to the four games after State beat LSU. And it allowed you to play some guys you weren’t expecting to play just yet. One would hope that expedites their development at least a little bit.

 

State is still a program in transition with plenty of questions to be answered. But at this point you shouldn’t be at the very beginning of a rebuild anymore. They’ve progressively gotten worse as a team every year since Mullen left, with what they have returning, I think it’s a major disappointment if they don’t buck that trend this year. Maybe it’s not drastic improvement but I do expect to see improvement.

Edited by Dawg83
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7 hours ago, Dawg83 said:

Just a thought that has crossed my mind. I mean the majority of last year was brutal and I’m still not quite sure what this year’s team will be, but at least they aren’t having to start brand new players at every position which seemed like a possibility early last year.

 

Last year was a weird roster situation for State because they entered Year 1 of a new regime with a bunch of older guys that you knew would only be there one year. My expectation was that State would take a step back right after certain guys left the program. I assumed that would be at the end of last season, but heck, half of them didn’t even make it to November. So the back half of the schedule ended up being Phase 1 of a rebuild. And it went reasonably well, at least compared to the four games after State beat LSU. And it allowed you to play some guys you weren’t expecting to play just yet. One would hope that expedites their development at least a little bit.

 

State is still a program in transition with plenty of questions to be answered. But at this point you shouldn’t be at the very beginning of a rebuild anymore. They’ve progressively gotten worse as a team every year since Mullen left, with what they have returning, I think it’s a major disappointment if they don’t buck that trend this year. Maybe it’s not drastic improvement but I do expect to see improvement.

I believe that stretch from  the arkansas to alabama was rock bottom for state. I think the defense which wasn't bad will  be better and if State can build on how they finished the regular season I can see them having a respectable year. I'm not calling a ten win season but you could upset someone and come away with 8 wins which would be huge.

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The key for me concerning MSU will be how they perform in the games in which they surely will lose. If they are competitive throughout the game and show pulse a  all game then folks will be more confident in Leach and /Company going forward. 8 wins should be expected

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7 hours ago, pancho said:

The key for me concerning MSU will be how they perform in the games in which they surely will lose. If they are competitive throughout the game and show pulse a  all game then folks will be more confident in Leach and /Company going forward. 8 wins should be expected

I don’t know that I totally agree that 8 should be the expectation. I would lean more toward anything less than 6-6 is a disappointment, 7-5 is what I’ve seen most people predicting, and then 8-4 would be a very good year. Anything above that and Leach should get coach of the year consideration.

 

It’s kind of a weird schedule because I consider the majority of State’s games to be toss-ups. Bama and A&M are probable losses, LA Tech/Vandy/Tennessee State are probable wins, everything else feels like it’s within the margin of error.

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Just now, MSTSatchmo said:

I think 6 wins will be a struggle for State.

6 should be very doable with the schedule. 

OOC: 

Hosting La. Tech, North Carolina State, and Tennessee State while playing at Memphis. That's likely 4 wins.

 

SEC play: 

Hosting Kentucky and Ole Miss while playing at Vandy, Auburn, and Arkansas. 2 or 3 wins from this group is pretty likely. 

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I mean we will know before the end of September if State is any good or not. I expect them to get by LA Tech though it’s not just a total gimme, and then you’ve got NC State-Memphis-LSU in consecutive weeks. If you’re 3-1 or 4-0 after that stretch you’re in a really nice spot and should have a strong year. Anything less than 3-1 and it will be an uphill climb to get to 6 wins.

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4 minutes ago, MSTSatchmo said:

I see two that should be W’s.  LA Tech and TN State.   NC State and Memphis are toss ups Kentucky, Vandy and Arkansas are all toss ups.   They’d have to win 4 of 5 toss ups or upset someone.  That’s asking a lot.   

LSU and Auburn could be toss-ups too depending on what those teams end up being. I don’t think Auburn is going to be great and LSU is the team I cannot get a good read on at all, and that game is in Starkville. LSU and Auburn will be favored in those games but I don’t think you can discount State’s chances by any means.

 

You don’t think an Egg Bowl in Starkville is a toss-up? Ole Miss had to hang on for dear life in Oxford last year against a heavily depleted State team.

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Egg Bowl will probably be completely unpredictable by the time we get there. 
 

I think 6 wins is a reasonable prediction for State. If things go south , 5 wins are possible. If things go right for us, 7-8 wins are possible. 

 

I am less concerned about the number wins and will be looking to see how we play. If we continue to build on the last 4 games then I will be pleased. Right now, I think that is a reasonable expectation. 
 

For Ole Miss, you may have a higher ceiling than State this year but again still a lot of uncertainty. 
Schedule on paper does not look too tough but you have some games that could tricky.

Wins-Austin Peay, Vandy

Probable Wins-Louisville, Tulane, Liberty, Arkansas  

Toss-Ups-Tennessee, Auburn, LSU, State, A&M

Loss-Bama

 

Schedule sets up for a good-to-great season provided there no hiccups against Liberty and Tulane. Those games could be tougher than you expect. 
 

 

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12 hours ago, Dawg83 said:

 

You don’t think an Egg Bowl in Starkville is a toss-up? Ole Miss had to hang on for dear life in Oxford last year against a heavily depleted State team.


For some reason I think OM is in for a big year.   They have too many weapons on offense and had the emergence of better OL play and a running game last year.  

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3 hours ago, MSTSatchmo said:


For some reason I think OM is in for a big year.   They have too many weapons on offense and had the emergence of better OL play and a running game last year.  

Don’t disagree with any of the comments about the OM offense, think it’s one of the best units in the country. It will probably score them a big upset win or two.

 
But defense is still a thing too. I’m very much in “I’ll believe it when I see it” mode with OM on that side of the ball. Unless that unit is drastically improved I think it costs them a game or two they should probably win.

 

I think I’m pretty firmly in the camp of thinking both State and OM are 6 to 8 win teams.

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4 hours ago, Dawg83 said:

 

 
But defense is still a thing too. I’m very much in “I’ll believe it when I see it” mode with OM on that side of the ball. Unless that unit is drastically improved I think it costs them a game or two they should probably win.

 

Myself and most OM fans I know are in this camp. 

 

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20 hours ago, Insideradvantage said:

Well 7 or 8 wins for State would be good any year, right? Same for OM. 

Correct. I’ve seen some OM fans predicting 9 or 10 wins, which honestly isn’t totally out of the question based on the schedule, but I think those people are setting themselves up for disappointment if OM only goes 7-5 or 8-4 when that would actually be a good year.

 

I think it’s too soon in both coach’s tenures for either one to have a team that’s an actual contender. And even then I think the ceiling is what you saw from State in 2014 and OM in 2015. The best either can reasonably expect right now is to be consistently good (6 to 8 wins) and then maybe a couple of times per decade you rise up and contend for the West. State was on that trajectory until Mullen left, OM was too under Freeze until the NCAA issues crept up.

 

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