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Egg Bowl/Rivalry Week Thread


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We have reached the end of the regular season, feels like it got here quick.
 

For once, I was pretty much spot on with my season predictions for State and OM. I had State at 7-4 and OM at 8-3 going into Thanksgiving night. Before the year I originally picked this as a State win with both teams finishing 8-4. But I will confess to you now that I’m changing my pick.

 

I just haven’t seen a level of play from State this year that tells me they win this game. I was expecting a step forward from last year but in many ways feel like State isn’t even as good as their 2021 selves. I’m aware that Ole Miss isn’t as good as they were last year either, but just don’t see this as a great matchup for State. They’ve had issues defending QB runs and outside runs all year, and Ole Miss does those things as well as anybody. I do think State can score on Ole Miss and keep it close for a while. But I have Ole Miss pulling away late. OM wins 41-31, and Leach enters 2023 with an enormous amount of pressure. I think we finally get a proper Leach vs Kiffin shootout that many were expecting to be an annual thing when both were hired, hasn’t really been the case so far. If you’re looking for a path to a State win, it probably involves this being an ugly game with a lot of OM turnovers. And I will say that State winning would not remotely be the most shocking result in this rivalry. Vegas currently has OM as only a 2.5 point favorite.

 

The big game nationally is Ohio State/Michigan. On a neutral field I might take Michigan, but in Columbus I’m taking the Buckeyes. I think we are eventually headed for a Georgia/Ohio State national title game.

 

Rapid fire through the SEC:

 

Arkansas/Mizzou - I like the fight and toughness of this Mizzou team and think they win at home to get to 6-6

 

Florida/FSU - two weird teams, I’m taking the Noles at home

 

SC/Clemson - a little more interesting after SC smoked Tennessee but still going with Clemson at home

 

Louisville/Kentucky - UL is due a win in this series, I think they steal a road win here

 

Iron Bowl - Auburn plays hard but loses by 20+
 

LSU/A&M - Tigers win big, A&M finishes 4-8

 

Tennessee/Vandy - Suddenly interesting with Hooker out and Vandy’s resurgence. I can’t pick Vandy to win outright but could easily see a close game.

 

 

Edited by Dawg83
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The weather forecast favors OM more than State.  I saw a lot of State fans getting excited over how Arkansas moved the ball at will against OM.  Arkansas’ offense and State’s offense are nothing alike and playing at home will make a huge difference for OM. 
 

OM still has plenty of weapons on offense.  Mingo and Heath at WR are hard to guard and of course they have two great RBs and a QB that can run as well.   I agree with 83 that the QB runs and outside runs will be hard for State to contain all night.  Judkins and Evans can take it the distance on any given play.  On the other side, OM will pressure the hell out of Rogers.  I’ve seen too many teams get to Rogers rushing just three.  
 

I think this will be the first Egg Bowl for these coaches that isn’t close in the 4th. 
OM 38 State 14

 

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One other thing I’ll say, I still don’t think you can ignore the Kiffin elephant in the room. This potentially has some shades of ‘98 with Tuberville or ‘17 with Mullen. Obviously those games also had the added layer of QB injuries mixed in. But I just can’t help but wonder, if we do find out this weekend that Kiffin is headed to Auburn, and if OM doesn’t win this game, will we look back on this and say he was totally checked out like Tuberville and Mullen?

 

I gotta be honest, that performance in Fayetteville only added fuel to the rumors and theories. But two things I’ll say for now.

 

1. He might not leave and that performance may just have been a product of a bad matchup and a lot going wrong on the road.

 

2. If he is leaving, Mike Leach really needs to win this game. And a blowout loss would be catastrophic for fan morale. The idea of losing to your rival when their head coach was ready bolt would not sit well with State fans. Granted, you can say the same thing if OM wins and Kiffin doesn’t leave.

Edited by Dawg83
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This is my honest opinion. I absolutely hate all this about Kiffin. As 83 noted, it has happened before, and I hated it then regardless of which school it affects. Sadly, it does affect the players which is wrong in so many levels. 
 

I know it is not possible but I wish there was a system in place that would forbid this from happening until after the season is over. 
I mean does it really make any difference? Bama did not hire Saban until after the NFL season concluded in January 2007 and it did not hurt them to wait. 
 

With all that said, I have no idea what happens Thursday night. Ole Miss certainly has the edge playing at home. But beyond that I think we can make a case for either team winning with the edge going about 60/40 in favor of Ole Miss. Weather could definitely be a factor in the game. I know it goes against his grain but for State to have a chance we need to run the ball at least 35 times. Very doubtful that happens but that is my opinion. 

 

Auburn makes a bid to upset Bama but falls short. LSU kills A&M. I am going to ride with Vandy one more week. Tennessee is reeling and I think Vandy pulls off another upset. Arkansas finally breaks the Missouri hex and wins in CoMo. SCAR comes back to earth and loses to Clemson. Free Shoes beats Thrown Shoe in the Sunshine state. KY beats Louie-ville.  Georgia Tech scares UGA for a half before Jawja pulls away. 

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So there’s a tweet from Jon Sokoloff, who is the head sports reporter at WCBI in Columbus, saying “sources” have told him Kiffin is stepping down Friday.  You can’t put much stock in what you read on Twitter anymore, but what’s interesting is SI and CBS sports as well as others have run with it.   Unless those are all fake accounts too.  OM denies the report of course.  

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Meh Satch, WCBI hires grinders for sports "reporting." 

 

Lane may well go to Auburn, but I'd bet good money Sokoloff knows absolutely nothing about Lane and Auburn. 

Lane has a couple of funny tweets back about this "breaking news." 

 

 

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I watch WCBI most nights over WTVA and Sokoloff has always done a very good job with the high school reporting and, to me, seemed very unbiased in his college coverage.  More so than previous sports directors at that station.  
 

I hope, for his sake, he has legit sources or he may be looking for a new job covering the Big 12.  You don’t make that type of “breaking news” tweet unless you really think you can trust someone.  Being the first to make the story can be risky.  

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31 minutes ago, Dawg83 said:

Sokoloff is good at his job, I don’t know if his source is right or not. But he’s not an incompetent dummy like some of these buffoons that parade around as reporters.


The guys before him, Donoho and Cody, you could tell were more favorable to State with their coverage and praise.  
 

Just a lot of speculation, but I see Auburn fans saying they will name their new coach Friday.   There have also been other names being thrown out as the next guy besides Kiffin.  Franklin, Rhule, Schiano.   This hype is setting Cohen up to fail right off the bat. 😂

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I have seen enough smoke to feel like Kiffin leaving is a real possibility. We’ll see what happens from there.

 

Even if he doesn’t leave, just his name being out there can absolutely be a distraction. Mullen didn’t leave State until 2017 but you can point to several seasons before then where State kinda collapsed late in the year all while Danny Boy’s name was being talked about for the likes of Penn State, Miami, etc.

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1 hour ago, Dawg83 said:

The line continues to move in State’s direction, which is fascinating to me. I’ve seen it as low as State +1.5. Was expecting that to be more in the 7 to 10 range.

If State wins tomorrow they will have an identical record with Ole Miss and will get the tiebreaker in the standings.  Who would have seen this coming two months ago?  I realize State is an underdog in this one, but can Leach take advantage of the situation and pull off the upset?  If he goes out there and lays an egg 🥚 at the egg bowl, I think you might start to hear some clamoring from the fan base.  If anyone needs a win tomorrow it is Mike Leach for sure.  I just hope that State will go out there and play an inspired brand of football tomorrow night.  If they do that I can live with whatever the results may be.

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1 hour ago, maroontide06 said:

If State wins tomorrow they will have an identical record with Ole Miss and will get the tiebreaker in the standings.  Who would have seen this coming two months ago?  I realize State is an underdog in this one, but can Leach take advantage of the situation and pull off the upset?  If he goes out there and lays an egg 🥚 at the egg bowl, I think you might start to hear some clamoring from the fan base.  If anyone needs a win tomorrow it is Mike Leach for sure.  I just hope that State will go out there and play an inspired brand of football tomorrow night.  If they do that I can live with whatever the results may be.

State hasn’t lost three EB’s in a row since 2002-2004, which was a very VERY bad time in State’s history. I realize Ole Miss has been good under Kiffin and it makes them harder to beat than they were under the Matt Luke’s and Ed Orgeron’s of the world. But this fanbase would NOT take kindly to Leach being 0-3 in this game.

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22 minutes ago, Dawg83 said:

State hasn’t lost three EB’s in a row since 2002-2004, which was a very VERY bad time in State’s history. I realize Ole Miss has been good under Kiffin and it makes them harder to beat than they were under the Matt Luke’s and Ed Orgeron’s of the world. But this fanbase would NOT take kindly to Leach being 0-3 in this game.

In a way State is kind of at a crossroads in this game.  If they go the victorious route and end the season (bowl game included) on a three game win streak there will be some huge momentum going into next season.  If they take the other route I honestly don’t even want to imagine what will happen, but fans will have the right to be upset with the way this season has gone.

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There has definitely been a shift in the mood among OM people today. I’m seeing a lot more acceptance that Kiffin is probably gone and a lot of criticism pointed in his direction.

Edited by Dawg83
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3 hours ago, Dawg83 said:

There has definitely been a shift in the mood among OM people today. I’m seeing a lot more acceptance that Kiffin is probably gone and a lot of criticism pointed in his direction.

Wow that’s some interesting news there. I honestly don’t know what to make of that situation since I’m not an Ole Miss fan but I guess we will soon find out.

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4 hours ago, Dawg83 said:

There has definitely been a shift in the mood among OM people today. I’m seeing a lot more acceptance that Kiffin is probably gone and a lot of criticism pointed in his direction.

It's been a roller coaster for sure. 

Monday, it seemed about 50/50 that Lane is staying/going. 

Tuesday most OM fans seemed to think Lane is staying.

Today most OM fans seem to think Lane is going. 

 

I have no idea what he'll do, depends on what Auburn is offering (or IF they're offering... I do believe they will offer). There are rumors Auburn is offering $12.5 million per year. IF SO, yeah.. he's gone. 

 

 

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The hate Kiffin is getting from OM fans on Twitter is insane.  Some are practically begging Fickle to come to OM.  I know it’s just a small amount of irrational fans, but Kiffin hasn’t gone anywhere yet.  Saying he shouldn’t be allowed to coach the Egg Bowl unless he signs his extension.  Lol. 
 

This is exactly what everyone knew would happen with Kiffin.  If he had success, he’d move on.  It’s kind of a surprise it’s Auburn, but IF it happens (capitalized) nobody should be shocked.  

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