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Dawg83

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Dawg83 last won the day on March 28

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  1. Looking at Hoover scenarios, because of the Auburn-Bama rainout on Sunday, State’s only path to Hoover involves them winning a series against Tennessee. And even then they’d still need some help. So yeah… I would probably not worry about booking a hotel in Hoover next week if I was a State fan. Ole Miss is going to finish somewhere in the middle of the pack and could have an interesting Tuesday game next week. Lose two or get swept this weekend and you might be in must win territory on Tuesday. My gut says State wins one against a Tennessee team with nothing to play for and finishes at 10-20 in conference play with no Hoover. Ole Miss wins two at home against A&M and is something like the 7 or 8 seed in Hoover. Winning two also removes any doubt about them making the NCAAT.
  2. My personal opinion is if you want to make an Omaha run, May is not really the time you want to peak. But that’s easy to say after State won a title last year despite getting annihilated in Hoover. That said, OM’s only hope to salvage their season was to get red hot in May so it’s hard to complain about that at the moment. The one thing I’ll say is that the OM pitching staff has really found its way since the State series and that has made an enormous difference. We’ll see how long it holds up but they played like a Top 10 team in Baton Rouge.
  3. Can’t help but wonder if this is trending toward Bianco doing enough to keep his job. Where are OM fans with that, I wonder? Is it still Omaha or bust in terms of making a change? Having said that, I would be pissed if I’m the host team that gets Ole Miss as my 2 or 3 seed. They’re not a slam dunk to get in yet, but it’s definitely trending positively for OM. They’ve totally reversed their fortunes since that series loss to State. Funny how that works out, State is 1-9 since leaving Oxford on a high note while OM is 8-2 in that same timeframe.
  4. If you’ve seen State play once this year you’ve pretty much seen all of their games. Dropped the first game to A&M in pretty much the exact way you’d expect them to. Promising at times, then walks kill them and they’re snake bit with the bases loaded. But Kentucky and Bama lost so still a reasonable path to Hoover as of now. Ole Miss and LSU postponed for the night with OM leading early.
  5. State’s at large chances are pretty much dead unless they do something absurd against A&M and Tennessee. I’m talking 5-1 against maybe the two best teams in the SEC right now. Seems basically impossible. Your RPI is now in the 100’s with two weeks + Hoover left, your chances of getting an at-large spot are like .001%. Get in Hoover is the first objective, and that’s far from a given. Then you hope for a miracle run as the 11 or 12 seed once you get there. It’s all INCREDIBLY unlikely but I guess you might as well try. Lol. If you made me call it today I don’t think State qualifies for Hoover. Too difficult of a remaining schedule and the tiebreaker with Kentucky would require State to beat Tennessee at least twice. I just don’t see it. Ole Miss is probably still out as of now but if you win 3 or 4 of your last 6 and then a couple of games in Hoover then I bet they sneak in as a 3 seed. USM needs to be really careful, they are getting real close to blowing what should’ve been a slam dunk host spot.
  6. Ole Miss on the verge of sweeping Mizzou, State about to get swept by Florida. OM has passed State in the SEC standings. State is tied currently tied with Kentucky for the last spot in Hoover and closes with A&M and Tennessee. Can’t exactly love your chances here. They’re 1-6 since winning the series in Oxford, and all of those games are against sub .500 SEC teams. Just a brutal year following up an all time great one. Very shocking to say the least. You knew the 2016-2021 run of success would come to an end eventually, can’t say I saw it crashing so abruptly though. State probably won’t be down for long, and I still firmly believe Lemonis is one of the better coaches in the country. But this has been a Murphy’s Law kind of season for sure.
  7. At this point you’re basically just playing to see who is bad enough to miss Hoover. Mizzou is probably one of the two teams that will miss out. Beyond that who knows. State, OM, and SC are all sitting at 9-14, Kentucky is 9-15. SC and Kentucky play next weekend in what will assuredly be an important series. State and OM both have a really tough last two weeks, State’s probably being a little rougher. Every game is important for Hoover purposes. State needs to avoid a sweep tomorrow, Ole Miss needs to finish one off. My guess is it all comes down to the last day or two of the season. But it’s incredibly unlikely that either of these teams are going to the NCAAT.
  8. Yeah you definitely can’t point to just one thing with State. When they hit the ball, the pitching is bad. When they pitch it well, they can’t hit. Hasn’t lined up for them all year.
  9. I thought State was turning a corner a couple of weeks ago but it’s just not gonna happen for this team barring something totally shocking. Just a weird year. The injuries have definitely taken a bite out of this team but you can’t blame everything on that.
  10. Yeah there have been a few guys that didn’t perform as expected. Chris Lemonis is still a good recruiter.
  11. The whole “Lemonis has to show considerable improvement” thing is silly to me. This season is the outlier in his tenure here. It’s not like he pulled a Fresno State and won a fluke national title. Two of his first three teams were essentially wire to wire Top 10 teams, including last year’s that won it all. 2020 was shaping up to be another good year too before COVID hit. No coach at a major program can constantly miss the NCAAT and keep their job, but that happening seems incredibly unlikely with Lemonis. This year is just one of those years where things don’t work out, all of the elite programs have them from time to time. His recruiting has been perfectly fine, too.
  12. Seems a near certainty we will have a coaching search in Oxford in about a month. No such concern for State but definitely some off-season regrouping on the horizon. This was not a young team so a weird year all around. Maybe they hit the portal hard, maybe next year they take some lumps yet again, I’m not sure.
  13. Yeah that should just about do it for State’s NCAA chances. Realistically would need to go 5-4 or 6-3 against Florida, A&M, and Tennessee. Doesn’t seem like it’s in the cards. And I don’t think they have the pitching to go on a run and win the SEC Tourney.
  14. It really is something to behold how State and OM are almost mirror images of one another this year. The OM-Arkansas game tonight felt like half a dozen different State losses I’ve watched this season.
  15. That was UGLY today for State. I guess if there’s a silver lining it’s that you go into a Sunday rubber game with your best pen arms totally fresh. Hard to paint tomorrow’s game as anything other than a must win for NCAAT purposes.
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